IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/771.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Elías Albagli
  • Luis Ceballos
  • Sebastián Claro
  • Damián Romero

Abstract

We document significant US monetary policy spillovers to domestic bond markets in a sample of 24 countries, including 12 developed and 12 emerging market economies. We rely on an event study methodology where US monetary policy changes are identified as the response of short-term US treasury yields within a narrow window of Federal Reserve meetings, and trace its consequences on domestic bond yields using panel data regressions. We decompose yields for each country into a risk neutral and a term premium component, using the methodology developed by Adrian et al. (2013). We emphasize three main results. First, spillovers to long-term rates in our sample of countries has increased substantially after the global financial crisis: a 100 bp increase in US short-term rates during monetary policy meetings is associated with increases between 70-80 bp on international bond yields. Second, these effects work through markedly different channels on different country groups: while the effects in developed economies work mostly through risk neutral rates -associated with signaling effects in the course of future monetary policy-, spillovers to emerging countries are concentrated predominantly on the term premium channel -associated with portfolio rebalancing effects. Third, these spillovers are large compared to the effects of other events, and at least as large as the effects of domestic MP in long-term rates after 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc771.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craine, Roger & Martin, Vance L., 2008. "International monetary policy surprise spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 180-196, May.
    2. Erlend Nier & Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Tomas Mondino, 2014. "Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?," IMF Working Papers 2014/196, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    6. Hausman, Joshua & Wongswan, Jon, 2011. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 547-571, April.
    7. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    9. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    10. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    11. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    12. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    14. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    15. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    17. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
    18. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    19. Ms. Longmei Zhang & Nasha Ananchotikul, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/156, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    21. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2016.
    22. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Mehrotra & Richhild Moessner & Chang Shu, 2019. "Interest Rate Spillovers from the United States: Expectations, Term Premia and Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7896, CESifo.
    2. Linas Jurksas & Hector Carcel, 2019. "Euro Area Government Bond Yield and Liquidity Dependence during different Monetary Policy Accommodation Phases," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 60, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Linas Jurksas & Deimante Teresiene & Rasa Kanapickiene, 2021. "Liquidity Spill-Overs in Sovereign Bond Market: An Intra-Day Study of Trade Shocks in Calm and Stressful Market Conditions," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Ricardo Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2018. "A risk-centric model of demand recessions and macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 733, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Jong Chil Son & Hail Park, 2019. "U.S. Interest Rate and Household Debt Sustainability: The Case of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(14), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Bertrand Gruss & Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 2016/108, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ana Aguilar-Argaez & María Diego-Fernández & Rocío Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    9. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez, 2018. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy : Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1234, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    11. Richard Clarida, 2018. "The global factor in neutral policy rates: Some implications for exchange rates, monetary policy, and policy coordination," BIS Working Papers 732, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Beniak, Patrycja, 2019. "The emerging market reaction to Fed tightening," MPRA Paper 96545, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    14. Albagli, Elias & Calani, Mauricio & Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Marcel, Mario & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2020. "Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers 14967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    16. Tomás Gómez & Alejandro Jara & David Moreno, 2020. "International and domestic interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies: the case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 870, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Nicolás Álvarez H. & Antonio Fernandois S. & Andrés Sagner T., 2019. "Rol de inversionistas institucionales domésticos sobre la volatilidad de tasas soberanas de economías emergentes," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(1), pages 082-101, April.
    19. Tim D. Maurer & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Working Papers 2020-10, Swiss National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Response of Sovereign Bond Yields to U.S. Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 8, pages 257-283, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    3. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    5. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    6. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    8. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    10. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    11. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    12. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    13. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2017. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    17. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    20. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudio Sepulveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.