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Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model

  • Martin Gonzalez-Rozada


  • Martin sola


  • Constantino Hevia


  • Fabio Spagnolo


In this paper we estimate the yield curve of U.S. government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model. We show how measures such as the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve are a�ected by business cycle conditions. We present a switching latent model which not only seem to capture this features in sample but also performs well out of sample.

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2012-07.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2012-07
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  1. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "On the Determination of the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 83, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Lee, Joon-Suk, 2008. "Favoritism in asymmetric procurement auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1407-1424, November.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Roberto Burguet & Martin K. Perry, 2008. "Preferred Suppliers in Auction Markets," Working Papers 355, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  6. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
  7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  8. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1991. "Auction design and favoritism," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 9-42, March.
  9. McAfee, R. Preston & McMillan, John, 1989. "Government procurement and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 291-308, May.
  10. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  11. Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2011. "Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 579-591, April.
  12. Branco, Fernando, 1994. "Favoring domestic firms in procurement contracts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 65-80, August.
  13. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  15. Arozamena, Leandro & Weinschelbaum, Federico, 2011. "On favoritism in auctions with entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 265-267, March.
  16. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  17. Driffill John & Kenc Turalay & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2009. "The Effects of Different Parameterizations of Markov-Switching in a CIR Model of Bond Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
  18. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
  19. Coroneo, Laura & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2014. "Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 0874, European Central Bank.
  21. Koopman, Siem Jan & Mallee, Max I. P. & Van der Wel, Michel, 2010. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 329-343.
  22. Ju Xiang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Nelson--Siegel Term Structure Model and Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(3), pages 522-555, June.
  23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:24:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Naegelen, Florence & Mougeot, Michel, 1998. "Discriminatory public procurement policy and cost reduction incentives," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 349-367, March.
  25. Leandro Arozamena & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2006. "A note on the suboptimality of right-of-first-refusal clauses," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(24), pages 1-5.
  26. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  27. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  29. Vagstad, Steinar, 1995. "Promoting fair competition in public procurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 283-307, October.
  30. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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