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Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model

Listed author(s):
  • Martin Gonzalez-Rozada

    ()

  • Martin sola

    ()

  • Constantino Hevia

    ()

  • Fabio Spagnolo

    ()

In this paper we estimate the yield curve of U.S. government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model. We show how measures such as the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve are a¤ected by business cycle conditions. We present a switching latent model which not only seem to capture this features in sample but also performs well out of sample.

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File URL: http://utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_134920718375682100.pdf
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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2012-07.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2012-07
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=439&id_item_menu=568

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  2. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  3. Coroneo, Laura & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2014. "Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:24:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
  8. Naegelen, Florence & Mougeot, Michel, 1998. "Discriminatory public procurement policy and cost reduction incentives," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 349-367, March.
  9. Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2011. "Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 579-591, April.
  10. Koopman, Siem Jan & Mallee, Max I. P. & Van der Wel, Michel, 2010. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 329-343.
  11. McAfee, R. Preston & McMillan, John, 1989. "Government procurement and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 291-308, May.
  12. Roberto Burguet & Martin K. Perry, 2008. "Preferred Suppliers in Auction Markets," Working Papers 355, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  13. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  16. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, 03.
  17. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  18. Ju Xiang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Nelson--Siegel Term Structure Model and Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(3), pages 522-555, June.
  19. Branco, Fernando, 1994. "Favoring domestic firms in procurement contracts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 65-80, August.
  20. Driffill John & Kenc Turalay & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2009. "The Effects of Different Parameterizations of Markov-Switching in a CIR Model of Bond Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
  21. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 0874, European Central Bank.
  22. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
  23. Leandro Arozamena & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2010. "On favoritism in auctions with entry," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-072, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  24. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  26. Lee, Joon-Suk, 2008. "Favoritism in asymmetric procurement auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1407-1424, November.
  27. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  28. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1991. "Auction design and favoritism," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 9-42, March.
  29. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  30. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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