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Policy irreversibility and interest rate smoothing

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  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi

Abstract

Many empirical studies argue that the inertial behavior of the policy rates in industrialized countries can be well explained by a linear partial adjustment version of the Taylor rule. However, the explanatory power of the lagged interest rate has been questioned from various points of view. This paper formally examines a situation in which a central bank has an aversion for frequent policy reversals. Imposing an irreversibility constraint on the control space makes the lagged interest rate a state variable, but the policy function cannot then be expressed as a partial adjustment form even if the original Taylor rule is the correct policy function in the absence of the constraint. The simulation results reveal that the conventional regression tends to falsely support the functionally misspecified partial adjustment model. This implies that the significant role of the lagged interest may simply reflect the central banks’ reversal aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2010. "Policy irreversibility and interest rate smoothing," MPRA Paper 19931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kohei Hasui & Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Tomohiro Sugo, 2019. "Irreversible monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 1906, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    2. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gradualism; interest rate smoothing; irreversibility; Taylor rule.;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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