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Policy irreversibility and interest rate smoothing

  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi

Many empirical studies argue that the inertial behavior of the policy rates in industrialized countries can be well explained by a linear partial adjustment version of the Taylor rule. However, the explanatory power of the lagged interest rate has been questioned from various points of view. This paper formally examines a situation in which a central bank has an aversion for frequent policy reversals. Imposing an irreversibility constraint on the control space makes the lagged interest rate a state variable, but the policy function cannot then be expressed as a partial adjustment form even if the original Taylor rule is the correct policy function in the absence of the constraint. The simulation results reveal that the conventional regression tends to falsely support the functionally misspecified partial adjustment model. This implies that the significant role of the lagged interest may simply reflect the central banks’ reversal aversion.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19931/1/MPRA_paper_19931.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19931.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19931
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  1. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A., 2009. "Monetary Policy Inertia: More a Fiction than a fact?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 97-133, January.
  7. English William B. & Nelson William R. & Sack Brian P., 2003. "Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, April.
  8. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2007. "Taylor Rules And Interest Rate Smoothing In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 1-16, 01.
  9. Bharat Trehan & Tao Wu, 2004. "Time varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Working Paper Series 2004-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Gerlach-Kristen Petra, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
  12. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  15. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 47-64.
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