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Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Kahn
  • Andrew Palmer

Abstract

George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Kahn & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00035
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    3. George A. Kahn, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
    5. Octavio Portolano Machado & Carlos Carvalho & Tiago Berriel, 2015. "Lift-off Uncertainty: What Can We Infer From the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections?," 2015 Meeting Papers 903, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Margaret M. Jacobson, 2015. "Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    7. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    8. Brent Bundick, 2015. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 33-49.
    9. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2018. "Relief Rallies after FOMC Announcements as a Resolution of Uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "Central bank forecasting: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
    4. Thomas I. Palley, 2019. "Inequality and Stagnation by Policy Design," FMM Working Paper 42-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11618, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2020. "What drives the FOMC’s dot plots?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Brent Bundick & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2026. "From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 69-101, January.
    8. Edward S. Knotek, 2019. "Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    9. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Rakeen Tanvir, 2023. "Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2019. "Plotting interest rates: The FOMC's projections and the economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 198-211.
    11. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2023. "Monetary policy and uncertainty resolution in commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Brent Bundick & Trenton Herriford, 2017. "How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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