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Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?

Author

Listed:
  • Carlstrom, Charles T.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Jacobson, Margaret M.

    (Dept. of Economics-Indiana University)

Abstract

Forecasters’ projections of interest rates vary a great deal. We use a Taylor rule to investigate two possible reasons why. Namely, do differences arise because forecasters have different projections for output growth or inflation, or do they arise because forecasters follow different guidelines to predict what the Federal Reserve will do with the federal funds rate? We find evidence for both explanations. Forecasters appear to use very different projections for inflation and output growth, but they also seem to use dramatically different Taylor rule coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlstrom, Charles T. & Jacobson, Margaret M., 2015. "Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00039
    as

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Connect the Dots
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-03-07 18:39:24

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:389-432. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kahn, George A. & Palmer, Andrew, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
    3. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:452-490 is not listed on IDEAS

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