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Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach

  • Azhar Iqbal

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi.)

  • Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi.)

The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 987-1014

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:987-1014
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  1. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  2. Rudebusch, G. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Papers 672, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nair-Reichert, Usha & Weinhold, Diana, 2001. " Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-71, May.
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  6. Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
  7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  8. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March.
  9. Venet, Baptiste & Hurlin, Christophe, 2001. "Granger Causality Tests in Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6159, Paris Dauphine University.
  10. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan & Löthgren, Mickael, 1998. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 250, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 27 Aug 1998.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
  14. Laurence H. Meyer, 2001. "Does money matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-16.
  15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  16. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  21. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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