IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc18/181594.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme

Author

Listed:
  • Lemke, Wolfgang
  • Werner, Thomas

Abstract

Starting in summer 2014, markets began to build up expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would embark on large-scale sovereign bond purchases. The ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) was eventually announced on 22 January 2015 and purchases started in March. Both during the run-up phase to the PSPP announcement day and for the day itself, German government bond yields declined significantly. Using an affine term structure model, we evidence that the yield declines are almost fully attributable to a decline in the term premium as opposed to the expectations component. This speaks in favour of the conjecture that the PSPP transmits to long-term yields mainly via a portfolio re-balancing channel rather than a (policy rate) signalling channel. The results prove robust against changing the number of factors in the model, the estimation sample and the estimation approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2018. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181594, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/181594/1/VfS-2018-pid-13773.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    2. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    3. Scott Joslin & Kenneth J. Singleton & Haoxiang Zhu, 2011. "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 926-970.
    4. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    5. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
    7. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    8. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    10. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    11. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    12. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    13. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
    14. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    15. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    16. De Santis, Roberto A., 2016. "Impact of the asset purchase programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Working Paper Series 1939, European Central Bank.
    17. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Monetary Policy Surprises over Time," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-60, March.
    18. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bergant, Katharina & Fidora, Michael & Schmitz, Martin, 2018. "International capital flows at the security level – evidence from the ECB’s asset purchase programme," ECMI Papers 13926, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Eser, Fabian & Lemke, Wolfgang & Nyholm, Ken & Radde, Sören & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2019. "Tracing the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2293, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure of interest rates; large-scale asset purchases; term;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.