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The Timing and Magnitude of Exchange Rate Overshooting


  • Niklas J. Westelius

    () (Hunter College)

  • Mathias Hoffmann

    () (University of Cologne)

  • Jens Sondergaard

    () (Johns Hopkins University, Department of International Economics (SAIS))


Empirical evidence suggests that a monetary shock induces the exchange rate to over-shoot its long-run level. The estimated magnitude and timing of the overshooting, however, varies across studies. This paper generates delayed overshooting in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy by incorporating incomplete information about the true nature of the monetary shock. The framework allows for a sensitivity analysis of the overshooting result to underlying structural parameters. It is shown that policy objectives and measures of the economy?s sensitivity to exchange rate dynamic a¤ect the timing and magnitude of the overshooting in a predictable manner, suggesting a possible rationale for the cross-study variation of the delayed overshooting phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas J. Westelius & Mathias Hoffmann & Jens Sondergaard, 2007. "The Timing and Magnitude of Exchange Rate Overshooting," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 418, Hunter College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:418

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    3. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Noise trading and delayed exchange rate overshooting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 133-156, September.
    4. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    5. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    6. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2003. "Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment," Working Paper Series 227, European Central Bank.
    7. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    8. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    9. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
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    11. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    12. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    13. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    15. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
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    More about this item


    Exchange rate overshooting; Partial information; Learning.;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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