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Gold and Silver as Safe Havens: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper investigates whether gold and silver can be considered safe havens by examining their long-run linkages with 22 stock price indices. More specifically, the stochastic properties of the differential between gold/silver prices and 22 stock indices are analysed applying fractional integration/cointegration methods to daily data, first for a sample from January 2010 until December 2019, then for one from January 2020 until July 2022 which includes the Covid-19 pandemic. The results can be summarised as follows. In the case of the pre-Covid-19 sample ending in December 2019, mean reversion is found for the gold price differential vis-à-vis BEF, BSE, CAC, DOW, KLS, KS1, MXX, N100, NAS, NYA and SP5 and for both differentials vis-à-vis CAC, KLS and N100, i.e. the evidence is mixed on whether these precious metals can be seen as safe havens, though it appears that this property characterises gold in a slightly higher number of cases. By contrast, when using the sample starting in January 2020, the evidence in favour of gold and silver as possible safe havens is pretty conclusive since mean reversion is only found in a single case, namely that of the gold differential vis-à-vis NZX.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2022. "Gold and Silver as Safe Havens: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10084, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gold and silver; hedge; safe heaven; fractional integration and cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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