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On Credit-Spread Slopes and Predicting Bank Risk

Author

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  • Krishnan, C. N. V.
  • Ritchken, P. H.
  • Thomson, J. B.

Abstract

We examine whether bank credit-spread curves, engendered by subordinated debt, would help predict bank risk. We extract credit-spread curves for each bank each quarter and analyze the predictive properties of credit-spread slopes. We find that credit-spread slopes are significant predictors of future credit spreads. We also find that credit-spread slopes provide significant additional information on future bank risk variables, over and above other bank-specific and market-wide information.

Suggested Citation

  • Krishnan, C. N. V. & Ritchken, P. H. & Thomson, J. B., 2006. "On Credit-Spread Slopes and Predicting Bank Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1545-1574, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:6:p:1545-1574
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0084
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    Cited by:

    1. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Ritchken, Peter H. & Thomson, James B., 2010. "Predicting credit spreads," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 529-563, October.
    2. Pop, Adrian & Pop, Diana, 2025. "Is the market tougher with riskier banks? Evidence from the pricing of bank debt securities during a financial turmoil episode," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 134.
    3. Adrian Pop, 2009. "Beyond the Third Pillar of Basel Two: Taking Bond Market Signals Seriously," Working Papers hal-00419241, HAL.
    4. Parnes, Dror & Gormus, Alper, 2024. "Prescreening bank failures with K-means clustering: Pros and cons," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    6. Nguyen, Tu, 2013. "The disciplinary effect of subordinated debt on bank risk taking," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 117-141.
    7. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Jagtiani, Julapa A. & Nakata, Taisuke, 2011. "Enhancing market discipline in banking: The role of subordinated debt in financial regulatory reform," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Almer, Thomas & Heidorn, Thomas & Schmaltz, Christian, 2008. "The dynamics of short- and long-term CDS-spreads of banks," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 95, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    9. C. N. V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2007. "On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads," Working Papers (Old Series) 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Ergungor, O. Emre & Laux, Paul A. & Singh, Ajai K. & Zebedee, Allan A., 2010. "Examining bank SEOs: Are offers made by undercapitalized banks different?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-234, April.
    11. Kedia, Simi & Zhou, Xing, 2014. "Informed trading around acquisitions: Evidence from corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 182-205.

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