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Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates

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  • Vasco Curdia

Abstract

Short-term interest rates in the United States have been very low since the financial crisis. Projections of the natural rate of interest indicate that a gradual return of short-term interest rates to normal over the next five years is consistent with promoting maximum employment and stable inflation. Uncertainty about the natural rate that is most consistent with an economy at its full potential suggests that the pace of normalization may be even more gradual than implied by these projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasco Curdia, 2015. "Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John C Williams, 2015. "The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 57-60, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    2. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 147-154, July.
    3. Scott Sumner, 2016. "Nudging the Fed Toward a Rules-Based Policy Regime," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 315-335, Spring/Su.
    4. Lawrence H. Summers, 2018. "Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 226-250, June.
    5. Cukierman, Alex, 2016. "Reflections on the natural rate of interest, its measurement, monetary policy and the zero lower bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Alex Cukierman, 2019. "Forex Intervention and Reserve Management in Switzerland and Israel since the Financial Crisis: Comparison and Policy Lessons," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 403-424, April.

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