IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ierequ/v12y2017i2p295-315.html

The Forecasts-Based Instrument Rule And Decision Making. How Closely Interlinked? The Case Of Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Karolina Tura-Gawron

    (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland)

Abstract

Research background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation fore-casts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to: (1) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate on the repo rate decisions, (2) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate forecasts (in two year horizon) on the repo rate decisions in Sweden in years 1999–2006. Methods: The analysis encompasses the repo rates decisions, CPI inflation rate, GDP growth rate, central paths of CPI inflation forecasts and central paths of GDP growth rate forecasts (the mode values) in the two years horizon published by The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006. The studies are based on the Taylor-type instrument rule and forecast-based Taylor-type instrument rule. The methodology used is multiple linear regression models. Findings & Value added: The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006 implemented direct inflation forecast targeting (DIFT) rule. The decision-making algorithm was based on the CPI inflation forecasts and the rule of the thumb algorithm. The exact rule of the thumb was as follow: if the inflation forecast, in the two year forecast’s horizon exceeded the infla-tion target by 1 p.p., then the central bank raised the repo rate by 0.4 p.p; if it was below it, then the central bank reduced the repo rate by 0.4 p.p. If the inflation forecast was equal to the inflation target, then the repo rate remained unchanged. The historical repo rates differ from the theoretical estimated rule of the thumb’s repo rates by +/-0.28 p.p.

Suggested Citation

  • Karolina Tura-Gawron, 2017. "The Forecasts-Based Instrument Rule And Decision Making. How Closely Interlinked? The Case Of Sweden," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 295-315, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:295-315
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.v12i2.16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.v12i2.16
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/eq.v12i2.16?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
    4. Gordon de Brouwer & Luci Ellis, 1998. "Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9803, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    7. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    8. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 225-245.
    9. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    11. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    12. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    13. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, August.
    14. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    2. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    4. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    6. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:349-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2010. "Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    8. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0720, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    9. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    10. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    11. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "Inflation Forecast-Based Rule for Inflation Targeting: Case of Some Selected MENA Countries," Working Papers 628, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    12. Danfeng Kong & Osamu Kamoike, "undated". "The stability condition of a forward looking Taylor rule," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i:281:p:209-221 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2021. "On the Use of Current or Forward-Looking Data in Monetary Policy: A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8853, CESifo.
    15. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June.
    16. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    17. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    18. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society.
    19. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    21. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    22. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:295-315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Adam P. Balcerzak to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.