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Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market

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Abstract

Are carbon emissions priced in equity markets? The literature is split with different approaches yielding conflicting results. We develop a stylized model showing that, if emissions are priced, stock returns depend on expected emissions and the product of the innovation in emissions and the price-dividend ratio. Building on this insight, we derive and test new predictions. We find that emissions are priced in equity markets, but the magnitude of such pricing is highly sensitive to the inclusion of a few “super emitters” (mostly operating in electric power generation). Our theoretical insight also helps reconcile seemingly divergent results in the literature.

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  • Matteo Crosignani & Emilio Osambela & Matthew Pritsker, 2025. "Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market," Staff Reports 1161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:101379
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1161
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    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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