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Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market

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Abstract

Are carbon emissions priced in equity markets? The literature is split with different approaches yielding conflicting results. We develop a stylized model showing that, if emissions are priced, stock returns depend on expected emissions and the product of the innovation in emissions and the price-dividend ratio. Building on this insight, we derive and test new predictions. We find that emissions are priced in equity markets, but the magnitude of such pricing is highly sensitive to the inclusion of a few “super emitters” (mostly operating in electric power generation). Our theoretical insight also helps reconcile seemingly divergent results in the literature.

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  • Matteo Crosignani & Emilio Osambela & Matthew Pritsker, 2025. "Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market," Staff Reports 1161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:101379
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    2. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Rudebusch, Glenn & Wilms, Ole, 2022. "Where is the carbon premium? Global performance of green and brown stocks," Other publications TiSEM 6b117156-316d-440a-9fa5-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shivaram, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2022. "Asset Prices and Portfolios with Externalities [Pricedetermination in the EU ETS market: theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1433-1468.
    5. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 75-106.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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