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Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francis X. Diebold

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
    Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9895, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pup:pbooks:9895
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    Cited by:

    1. Anh Le & Bruno Feunou & Christian Lundblad & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2015. "Tractable Term-Structure Models and the Zero Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 15-46, Bank of Canada.
    2. Machava, Agostinho & Brännäs, Kurt, 2015. "Mozambican Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve of Treasury Bills - An Empirical Study," Umeå Economic Studies 918, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    3. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    4. repec:taf:nzecpp:v:50:y:2016:i:3:p:343-361 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 343-361.
    6. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.

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