What Causes Business Cycles? Analysis of the Japanese Industrial Production Data
We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand, and the second factor as inventory adjustment. They cannot be reasonably interpreted as technological shocks. We also demonstrate that in terms of two dominant factors, shipments lead production by four months. Furthermore, out-of-sample test demonstrates that the model holds up even under the 2008-09 recession. Because a fall of output during 2008-09 was caused by an exogenous drop in exports, it provides another justification for identifying the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand. All the findings suggest that the major cause of business cycles is real demand shocks.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989.
"Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1951. "What Happens During Business Cycles: A Progress Report," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc51-1.
- James Tobin, 1993.
"Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 45-65, Winter.
- James Tobin, 1991. "Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 994R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1991.
- Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0912.0857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.