IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India


  • Pami Dua

    (Pami Dua, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi, India, email:

  • Nishita Raje

    (Nishita Raje, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India, email:


This article examines the determinants of government yields in India using weekly data from April 2001 through June 2012. The analysis covers treasury bills with residual maturity of 15–91 days and government securities of residual maturity 1, 5 and 10 years. The empirical estimates show that a long-run relationship exists between each of these interest rates and the policy rate, rate of growth of money supply, inflation, interest rate spread, foreign interest rate and forward premium. At the same time, the empirical results show that the relative importance of the determinants varies across the maturity spectrum. The normalised generalised variance decompositions suggest that the policy rate and the rate of growth of high powered money are more important in explaining the proportion of variation in shorter-term interest rates than the longer-term rates. The weight of the forward premium also diminishes as we move towards higher maturity interest rates. The inflation rate becomes relatively less important in explaining variations in the yields as the maturity of the security increases. The yield spread, on the other hand, is more important in explaining the longer-term rates. The results also show that a large proportion of the variation in the rates on the 5-year and 10-year government securities is attributed to the interest rate itself, suggesting that the unexplained variation may be a result of cyclical factors that are relatively more important for longer-term rates but are not captured by the yield spread and are omitted from the estimations in this article due to the high frequency of data employed here.JEL Classification: C5, E43

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Nishita Raje, 2014. "Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 375-400, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:8:y:2014:i:4:p:375-400

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Yields on Government Securities; Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:8:y:2014:i:4:p:375-400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.