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Time Horizons And Smoothing In the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

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  • David Cobham
  • Yue Kang

Abstract

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Suggested Citation

  • David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Time Horizons And Smoothing In the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1208, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Cobham, 2003. "Why does the Monetary Policy Committee smooth interest rates?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 467-493, July.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A., 2009. "Monetary policy inertia: More a fiction than a fact?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 900-906, September.
    5. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985-2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
    6. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    7. Cobham, David & Kang, Yue, 2012. "Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2013. "Time Horizons and Smoothing in the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between the Standard GMM and Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 662-679, October.
    9. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward-looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, September.
    11. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    12. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    13. repec:edn:sirdps:410 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    15. Jagjit S. Chadha & Norbert G. J. Janssen, 1997. "What Monetary Authorities do - an Examination of Reaction Functions for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 455-476, September.
    16. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
    17. repec:ags:aaea07:410 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:ags:aaea07:390 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2013. "Time Horizons and Smoothing in the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between the Standard GMM and Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 662-679, October.

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