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Charles Manski

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Arthur S. Goldberger & Charles F. Manski, 1995. "The Bell Curve: Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 762-776, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. In practice, Correlation Implies Causation
      by Eric Falkenstein in Falkenblog on 2011-09-01 18:00:00
    2. links for 2010-01-26
      by Brad DeLong in Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand on 2010-01-26 14:04:37
    3. Brad Delong takes down the execrable Charles Murray
      by Richard K. Green in Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog on 2010-01-23 09:18:00
  2. Author Profile
    1. REPEC Issues a Monthly "Report Card" for Academic Economists
      by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2016-12-05 03:41:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem," Papers 2004.06178, arXiv.org.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Measurement
  2. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 28446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Immunization

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Mark D. Manuszak & Charles F. Manski & Sanghamitra Das, 2005. "Walk or wait? An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 529-548.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Walk or wait? An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2005) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2011. "Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1059-1078, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy & Atheendar Venkataramani, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Racial/Ethnic Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," NBER Working Papers 33350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.

  2. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," NBER Working Papers 32269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "Limit Regret in Binary Treatment Choice with Misspecified Plug-In Predictors and Decision Thresholds," Papers 2512.19824, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.

  3. Charles F. Manski, 2023. "Credible Social Planning under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 31456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Florian Mudekereza, 2025. "Robust Aggregation of Preferences," Papers 2504.07401, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.

  4. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2023. "Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance," Papers 2308.05171, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Federico Crippa, 2024. "Regret Analysis in Threshold Policy Design," Papers 2404.11767, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    2. Crippa, Federico, 2025. "Regret analysis in threshold policy design," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.

  5. Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy & Atheendar Venkataramani, 2022. "Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness," NBER Working Papers 30700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," Papers 2501.02318, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Alsan, Marcella & Campbell, Romaine A. & Leister, Lukas & Ojo, Ayotomiwa, 2025. "Investigator racial diversity and clinical trial participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Michael Allan Ribers & Hannes Ullrich, 2024. "Complementarities between algorithmic and human decision-making: The case of antibiotic prescribing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 445-483, December.

  6. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Identification and Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2204.11318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

    Cited by:

    1. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

  7. Stephen J. DeCanio & Charles F. Manski & Alan H. Sanstad, 2022. "Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting," Papers 2201.08826, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski & Eytan Sheshinski, 2024. "The Subtlety of Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality," Papers 2410.13658, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2025. "What is the general Welfare? Welfare Economic Perspectives on Equity," Papers 2501.08244, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    3. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.-P., 2022. "Required Capital for Long-Run Risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Knoke, Thomas & Biber, Peter & Schula, Tobias & Fibich, Jonathan & Gang, Benjamin, 2025. "Minimising the relative regret of future forest landscape compositions: The role of close-to-nature stand types," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

  8. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Manh‐Hung Nguyen & Viet‐Ngu Hoang & Son Nghiem & Lan Anh Nguyen, 2025. "The Dynamic and Heterogeneous Effects of COVID‐19 Vaccination Mandates in the USA," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 518-536, March.
    2. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Federico Crippa, 2024. "Regret Analysis in Threshold Policy Design," Papers 2404.11767, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    4. Hannes Ullrich & Michael Allan Ribers, 2023. "Machine predictions and human decisions with variation in payoffs and skill: the case of antibiotic prescribing," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0027, Berlin School of Economics.
    5. Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Nghiem, Son & Nguyen, Lan Anh, 2024. "The Dynamic and Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates in the USA," TSE Working Papers 24-1598, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Crippa, Federico, 2025. "Regret analysis in threshold policy design," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    7. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "Limit Regret in Binary Treatment Choice with Misspecified Plug-In Predictors and Decision Thresholds," Papers 2512.19824, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    10. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2023. "Treatment choice, mean square regret and partial identification," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 573-602, October.

  9. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 28446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Goodkin-Gold, Matthew & Kremer, Michael & Snyder, Christopher M. & Williams, Heidi, 2022. "Optimal vaccine subsidies for endemic diseases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. L'aszl'o Czaller & GergH{o} T'oth & Bal'azs Lengyel, 2021. "Vaccine allocation to blue-collar workers," Papers 2104.04639, arXiv.org.

  10. Charles F. Manski & Alan H. Sanstad & Stephen J. DeCanio, 2021. "Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 28449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Manski, Charles F. & Sanstad, Alan H., 2022. "Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Shao, Dongrui & Chu, Junyu & Chen, Luonan & Ma, Huanfei, 2023. "Data assimilation with hybrid modeling," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

  11. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Patient-Centered Appraisal of Race-Free Clinical Risk Assessment," Papers 2112.01639, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Adriana Corredor-Waldron & Janet Currie & Molly Schnell, 2025. "Drivers of Racial Differences in C-Sections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2489, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  12. Charles F Manski & Michael Gmeiner & Anat Tamburc, 2021. "Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem," Papers 2102.11334, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.

  13. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2020. "Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs," Papers 2006.00343, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Depalo, Domenico, 2020. "True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 630, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. John Mullahy, 2020. "Discovering Treatment Effectiveness via Median Treatment Effects—Applications to COVID-19 Clinical Trials," NBER Working Papers 27895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.

  14. Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem," Papers 2004.06178, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Kent A. Smetters, 2020. "Stay-at-home orders and second waves: a graphical exposition," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 94-103, September.
    2. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cem Cakmakli & Yasin Simsek, 2023. "Bridging the Covid-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time-Varying Parameter SIRD Model," Papers 2301.13692, arXiv.org.
    4. Khan, Haider, 2020. "Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Bangladesh: Agenda for Immediate Action and Planning for the Future," MPRA Paper 100380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Daniel W. Sacks & Nir Menachemi & Peter Embi & Coady Wing, 2020. "What can we learn about SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from testing and hospital data?," Papers 2008.00298, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    6. Shin KINOSHITA & Masayuki SATO & Takanori IDA, 2022. "Bayesian Probability Revision and Infection Prevention Behavior in Japan : A Quantitative Analysis of the First Wave of COVID-19," Discussion papers e-22-004, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    7. Yothin Jinjarak & Rashad Ahmed & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin & Joshua Aizenman, 2020. "Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020," NBER Working Papers 27185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Elias Mossialos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "Effectiveness of Government Policies in Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Discussion Paper Series 2021_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    9. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-09, FEDEA.
    10. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Cristiano Mantovani & Wookun Kim & Amit Khandelwal & Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," Working Papers 1187, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Karl M. Aspelund & Michael C. Droste & James H. Stock & Christopher D. Walker, 2020. "Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland," NBER Working Papers 27528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model," NBER Working Papers 27102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Sparse HP filter: Finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Difang Huang & Ying Liang & Boyao Wu & Yanyi Ye, 2025. "Estimating the impact of social distance policy in mitigating COVID-19 spread with factor-based imputation approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 585-601, February.
    16. Filip Obradovi'c, 2022. "Measuring Diagnostic Test Performance Using Imperfect Reference Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2204.00180, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    17. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2023. "Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: An application to coronavirus," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 35-51.
    20. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Centorrino, Samuele & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2024. "Nonparametric estimation of stochastic frontier models with weak separability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    22. Masashige Hamano & Munechika Katayama & So Kubota, 2020. "COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy," Working Papers 2016, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    23. Depalo, Domenico, 2020. "True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 630, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    24. Toru Kitagawa & Guanyi Wang, 2020. "Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines Over SIR Network," Papers 2012.04055, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    25. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    26. Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion," NBER Working Papers 27121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Chen, Xi & Qiu, Yun & Shi, Wei & Yu, Pei, 2022. "Key Links in Network Interactions: Assessing Route-Specific Travel Restrictions in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 15038, IZA Network @ LISER.
    29. Lucas Bretschger & Elise Grieg & Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2020. "COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 801-847, October.
    30. Difang Huang & Ying Liang & Boyao Wu & Yanyi Ye, 2024. "Estimating the Impact of Social Distance Policy in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread with Factor-Based Imputation Approach," Papers 2405.12180, arXiv.org.
    31. Millimet, Daniel L. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2021. "COVID-19 Severity: A New Approach to Quantifying Global Cases and Deaths," IZA Discussion Papers 14116, IZA Network @ LISER.
    32. Blas A. Marin-Lopez & David Jimenez-Gomez & José-María Abellán-Perpiñán, 2022. "Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Theory and Simulations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-23, August.
    33. Kitagawa, Toru & Wang, Guanyi, 2023. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 109-131.
    34. Seth Freedman & Daniel W. Sacks & Kosali Simon & Coady Wing, 2026. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43, January.
    35. Jörg Stoye, 2022. "Bounding infection prevalence by bounding selectivity and accuracy of tests: with application to early COVID-19," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14.
    36. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    37. Bollinger, Christopher R. & van Hasselt, Martijn, 2020. "Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    38. Korolev, Ivan, 2021. "Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 63-85.
    39. Adak, Debadatta & Majumder, Abhijit & Bairagi, Nandadulal, 2021. "Mathematical perspective of Covid-19 pandemic: Disease extinction criteria in deterministic and stochastic models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    40. Badi H. Baltagi & Ying Deng & Jing Li & Zhenlin Yang, 2022. "Cities in a Pandemic: Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 10037, CESifo.
    41. Yulu Wang & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2025. "COVID-19 under-reporting: spillovers and stringent containment strategies of global cases," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 87-106, February.
    42. Guccio, Calogero, 2021. "Measuring resilience and fatality rate during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy: a note," EconStor Preprints 231374, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    43. Obradović, Filip, 2024. "Measuring diagnostic test performance using imperfect reference tests: A partial identification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    44. Brian Lee & Ahmed Abdul Quadeer & Muhammad Saqib Sohail & Elizabeth Finney & Syed Faraz Ahmed & Matthew R. McKay & John P. Barton, 2025. "Inferring effects of mutations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission from genomic surveillance data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    45. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    46. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2020. "Testing Policies During an Epidemic," CSEF Working Papers 591, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    47. Xingfei Liu & Chuhong Wang & Zizhong Yan & Yi Zhao, 2022. "Higher Education Expansion and Crime: New Evidence from China," Working Papers 2022-02, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    48. Brantly Callaway & Tong Li, 2021. "Policy Evaluation during a Pandemic," Papers 2105.06927, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    49. Jung, Juergen & Manley, James & Shrestha, Vinish, 2021. "Coronavirus infections and deaths by poverty status: The effects of social distancing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 311-330.
    50. He, Qichun, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," MPRA Paper 101965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Cem Cakmakli & Yasin Simsek, 2020. "Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model," Papers 2007.02726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    52. Fischer, Kai & Reade, J. James & Schmal, W. Benedikt, 2022. "What cannot be cured must be endured: The long-lasting effect of a COVID-19 infection on workplace productivity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    53. Seth M. Freedman & Daniel W. Sacks & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 30550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Jose Olmo & Marcos Sanso‐Navarro, 2021. "Modeling the spread of COVID‐19 in New York City," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1209-1229, October.
    55. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2022. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," Working Papers 22-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    56. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests," NBER Working Papers 27226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Kinoshita, Shin & Sato, Masayuki & Ida, Takanori, 2024. "Bayesian probability revision and infection prevention behavior in Japan: A quantitative analysis of the first wave of COVID-19," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    58. John Mullahy, 2020. "Discovering Treatment Effectiveness via Median Treatment Effects—Applications to COVID-19 Clinical Trials," NBER Working Papers 27895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Hamed Amini & Andreea Minca, 2024. "Social distancing game and insurance investment in a pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(3), pages 2009-2036, May.
    60. Kumbhakar, Subal C. & Wang, Yulu, 2024. "Global COVID-19 under-reporting: A Tobit model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    61. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 21-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    62. Nail Kashaev, 2022. "Estimation of Parametric Binary Outcome Models with Degenerate Pure Choice-Based Data with Application to COVID-19-Positive Tests from British Columbia," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20225, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    63. Allan Dizioli & Roberto Pinheiro, 2021. "How Sure Can We Be about a COVID-19 Test Result if the Tests Are Not Perfectly Accurate?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(12), pages 1-4, May.
    64. Toulis, Panos, 2021. "Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence from serology tests: A partial identification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 193-213.
    65. Zakharov, Nikita, 2020. "The protective effect of smoking against COVID-19: A population-based study using instrumental variables," MPRA Paper 101267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    67. Toru Kitagawa & Guanyi Wang, 2020. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," CeMMAP working papers CWP59/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    68. Franco Peracchi & Daniele Terlizzese, 2020. "Estimating the prevalence of the COVID-19 infection, with an application to Italy," EIEF Working Papers Series 2013, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    69. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of Covid-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2006.16214, arXiv.org.
    70. Ziyuan Xia & Jeffery Chen & Anchen Sun, 2021. "Mining the Relationship Between COVID-19 Sentiment and Market Performance," Papers 2101.02587, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    71. Toru Kitagawa & Guanyi Wang, 2021. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," CeMMAP working papers CWP28/21, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    72. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 28446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Nicholas W. Papageorge & Matthew V. Zahn & Michèle Belot & Eline Broek-Altenburg & Syngjoo Choi & Julian C. Jamison & Egon Tripodi, 2021. "Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 691-738, April.
    74. Cai, Junyang & Zhou, Jian, 2022. "How many asymptomatic cases were unconfirmed in the US COVID-19 pandemic? The evidence from a serological survey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    75. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    76. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.
    77. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.
    78. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Working Papers 2020-54_Revised, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

  15. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests," NBER Working Papers 27226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Sparse HP filter: Finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Depalo, Domenico, 2020. "True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 630, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Bollinger, Christopher R. & van Hasselt, Martijn, 2020. "Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Mudassir Khalil & Ahmad Naeem & Rizwan Ali Naqvi & Kiran Zahra & Syed Atif Moqurrab & Seung-Won Lee, 2023. "Deep Learning-Based Classification of Abrasion and Ischemic Diabetic Foot Sores Using Camera-Captured Images," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-21, September.
    5. John Mullahy, 2020. "Discovering Treatment Effectiveness via Median Treatment Effects—Applications to COVID-19 Clinical Trials," NBER Working Papers 27895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  16. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Remarks on statistical inference for statistical decisions," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Isaiah Andrews & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "A Model of Scientific Communication," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2117-2142, September.

  17. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Isaiah Andrews & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "A Model of Scientific Communication," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2117-2142, September.

  18. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," Papers 1912.08726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Karun Adusumilli, 2022. "How to sample and when to stop sampling: The generalized Wald problem and minimax policies," Papers 2210.15841, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    3. Hirano, Keisuke & Porter, Jack R., 2020. "Asymptotic analysis of statistical decision rules in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 283-354, Elsevier.
    4. Philipp Eisenhauer & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh & Janós Gabler, 2023. "Structural Models for Policy-Making," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_484, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    6. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2023. "Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance," Papers 2308.05171, arXiv.org.
    7. Patrick Kline, 2023. "A Comment on: “Invidious Comparisons: Ranking and Selection as Compound Decisions” by Jiaying Gu and Roger Koenker," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 47-52, January.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini & Sokbae Lee & Silvia Sarpietro, 2023. "A Robust Method for Microforecasting and Estimation of Random Effects," Working Paper Series WP 2023-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    10. Cheng, Xiaoyu, 0. "Improving robust decisions with data," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    11. Federico Crippa, 2024. "Regret Analysis in Threshold Policy Design," Papers 2404.11767, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    12. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    13. Charles F. Manski, 2023. "Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose," Papers 2305.17206, arXiv.org.
    14. Achim Ahrens & Alessandra Stampi‐Bombelli & Selina Kurer & Dominik Hangartner, 2024. "Optimal multi‐action treatment allocation: A two‐phase field experiment to boost immigrant naturalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1379-1395, November.
    15. Nan Liu & Yanbo Liu & Yuya Sasaki & Yuanyuan Wan, 2025. "Nonparametric Uniform Inference in Binary Classification and Policy Values," Papers 2511.14700, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    16. Seungjin Han & Julius Owusu & Youngki Shin, 2022. "Statistical Treatment Rules under Social Interaction," Papers 2209.09077, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    17. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2023. "Improving Robust Decisions with Data," Papers 2310.16281, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    18. Bernhard Kasberger & Kyle Woodward, 2021. "Bidding in Multi-Unit Auctions under Limited Information," Papers 2112.11320, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    19. Isaiah Andrews & Jiafeng Chen, 2025. "Certified Decisions," Papers 2502.17830, arXiv.org.
    20. Crippa, Federico, 2025. "Regret analysis in threshold policy design," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    21. Keisuke Hirano, 2023. "A Comment on: “Invidious Comparisons: Ranking and Selection as Compound Decisions” by Jiaying Gu and Roger Koenker," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 43-46, January.
    22. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    23. Charles F. Manski, 2023. "Preface to the Special Issue on “Statistical Decision Theory and Treatment Choice”," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 445-446, October.
    24. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    25. Zhang, Yingheng & Li, Haojie, 2026. "Causal decision-making for speed camera allocation: Methodology and an application," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    26. Raffaella Giacomini & Sokbae Lee & Silvia Sarpietro, 2023. "Individual Shrinkage for Random Effects," Papers 2308.01596, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    27. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2023. "Robust Decision-Making under Risk and Ambiguity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 463, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    28. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Identification and Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2204.11318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    29. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "Limit Regret in Binary Treatment Choice with Misspecified Plug-In Predictors and Decision Thresholds," Papers 2512.19824, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    30. Manganelli, Simone, 2025. "Statistical decision functions with judgment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    31. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    32. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, IZA Network @ LISER.
    33. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Ariel Xu, 2026. "Large Language Models and Creative Content Design: a case study of email marketing at Wine Access," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, December.
    34. Philipp Eisenhauer & Jano's Gabler & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh, 2021. "Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty," Papers 2103.01115, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    35. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust Decision-Making Under Risk and Ambiguity," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 104, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  19. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia," NBER Working Papers 26125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Ciani & Adeline Delavande & Ben Etheridge & Marco Francesconi, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 98-129.
    2. Orazio Attanasio & V’ctor Sancibri‡n & Federica Ambrosio, 2025. "New Measures for Richer Theories: Some Thoughts and an Example," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2477, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identification," Papers 2004.11751, arXiv.org.
    4. Thomas Crossley & Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2021. "Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods: new distributional tests of rational expectations," IFS Working Papers W21/01, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    6. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 940-959, November.
    8. Jane Greve & Morten Saaby & Anders Rosdahl & Vibeke Tornhøj Christensen, 2021. "Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(2), pages 163-191, June.
    9. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2019. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," NBER Working Papers 26087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20207, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    11. Kirby Nielsen & Luca Rigotti, 2022. "Revealed Incomplete Preferences," Papers 2205.08584, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.

  20. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2018. "Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Working Papers 24559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Ciani & Adeline Delavande & Ben Etheridge & Marco Francesconi, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7851, CESifo.
    2. Alessandro Mistretta & Francesco Zollino, 2021. "Recent Trends in Economic Activity and TFP in Italy with a Focus on Embodied Technical Progress," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 79-107, March.
    3. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
    4. Daniel J. Benjamin & Kristen Cooper & Ori Heffetz & Miles S. Kimball & Jiannan Zhou, 2023. "Adjusting for Scale-Use Heterogeneity in Self-Reported Well-Being," NBER Working Papers 31728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kerwin, Jason & Pandey, Divya, 2023. "Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 16478, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Mullahy, John, 2024. "Analyzing health outcomes measured as bounded counts," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Pamela Giustinelli & Edwin Leuven, 2026. "Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions," Working Papers 2026-002, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    8. Conti, G. & Giustinelli, P., 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Kosar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2019. "Understanding Migration Aversion Using Elicited Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 12271, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Conti, Gabriella & Giustinelli, Pamela, 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 16143, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    12. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daniel J. Benjamin & Kristen Cooper & Ori Heffetz & Miles S. Kimball, 2023. "From Happiness Data to Economic Conclusions," NBER Working Papers 31727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Chiara Binelli, 2019. "Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 201-231, August.
    15. Gabriella Conti & Michele Giannola & Alessandro Toppeta, 2024. "Parental beliefs, perceived health risks, and time investment in children," IFS Working Papers W24/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    17. Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero, 2024. "Consumption and income expectations during Covid-19," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 95-116, March.
    18. Delavande, Adeline & Del Bono, Emilia & Holford, Angus, 2025. "Imprecise health beliefs and health behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Pistaferri, Luigi, 2019. "Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Daniel J. Benjamin & Kristen B. Cooper & Ori Heffetz & Miles S. Kimball & Tushar Kundu, 2025. "What Do People Want?," NBER Working Papers 33846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Peter Andre & Felix Chopra & Luca Michels & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026. "Do People Have Economic Expectations?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 402, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    22. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    23. Daniel Kaliski, 2025. "Household debt, self-insurance, and subjective medical expenses risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1191-1231, March.
    24. James Bland & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2024. "Rounding the (Non)Bayesian Curve: Unraveling the Effects of Rounding Errors in Belief Updating," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1353, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    25. Alessandro Mistretta & Francesco Zollino, 0. "Recent Trends in Economic Activity and TFP in Italy with a Focus on Embodied Technical Progress," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 0, pages 1-29.
    26. Mateo Velásquez-Giraldo, 2024. "Life-Cycle Portfolio Choices and Heterogeneous Stock Market Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Felix Aidala & Gizem Koşar & Daniel Mangrum & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2025. "Understanding Consumer Demand for “Buy Now, Pay Later”," Staff Reports 1167, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Carlos Madeira, 2025. "How accurately do consumers report their debts in household surveys?," BIS Working Papers 1258, Bank for International Settlements.

  21. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "The Lure of Incredible Certitude," NBER Working Papers 24905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Fé, 2021. "Pension eligibility rules and the local causal effect of retirement on cognitive functioning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 812-841, July.
    2. Lammers, Wouter & Puimège, Eva & Pattyn, Valérie & Van de Walle, Steven, 2025. "Seeing Uncertainty: An Eye-tracking Study on how Civil Servants read and use Uncertainty Information," SocArXiv cpyra_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Fé, Eduardo, 2025. "Bounds for average treatment effect on couples with an application to the retirement-consumption puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. John Mullahy, 2022. "Investigating health-related time use with partially observed data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 103-121, March.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    6. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.

  22. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi & Rooij, Maarten van, 2021. "Heterogeneous wealth effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    3. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas Parker, 2019. "Surveying Business Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022. "Informative social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
    6. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," NBER Working Papers 25496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chiara Binelli & Matthew Loveless, 2025. "Environmental actions, support for policy, and information’s provision: experimental evidence from the US," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2018. "Expectation formation in an evolving game of uncertainty: New experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 379-405.
    10. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
    11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    12. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    13. Victor Olkhov, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," Papers 2009.14278, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    14. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2019. "How Do Consumers Adapt to a New Environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German Reunification," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203668, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "Testing for differences in survey‐based density expectations: A compositional data approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1104-1122, September.
    16. Christian Stoltenberg & Arne Uhlendorf, 2022. "Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation," Working Papers 2022-15, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0723, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    18. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    19. Marco Bottone, 2025. "Comparing survey measures of firms’ expectations and uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 393-430, July.
    20. Victor Olkhov, 2022. "Why Economic Theories and Policies Fail? Unnoticed Variables and Overlooked Economics," Papers 2208.07839, arXiv.org.
    21. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Annarita Colasante & Alba Ruiz-Buforn, 2024. "The effect of time-varying fundamentals in learning-to-forecast experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(4), pages 619-647, October.
    23. Yusuke Aoki & Joon Suk Park & Yuya Takada & Koji Takahashi, 2025. "Expecting Job Replacement by GenAI: Effects on Workers' Economic Outlook and Behavior," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    24. Fezzi, Carlo & Menapace, Luisa & Raffaelli, Roberta, 2021. "Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    25. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sébastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," TSE Working Papers 1561, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    26. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2026. "Inflation expectations and a conservative central banker: Evidence from a natural experiment," IMFS Working Paper Series 234, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    27. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory III. Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 94053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    29. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    30. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
    31. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 127, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    32. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    33. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    34. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovicka & Paul Ho, 2019. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," Working Paper 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    35. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Theoretical Economics and the Second-Order Economic Theory. What is it?," Papers 2112.04566, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    36. Rachel Avram & Eric J. Koepcke & Alaa Moussawi & Melissa Nu~nez, 2024. "Do Cure Violence Programs Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from New York City," Papers 2406.02459, arXiv.org.
    37. Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    38. Francesco Andreoli & Claudine Kirsch & Eugenio Peluso & Vincenzo Prete, 2024. "The subjective treatment effects of COVID-19 on child well-being: evidence from Luxembourg," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(3), pages 575-596, September.
    39. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2021. "Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    40. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Chiara Binelli, 2019. "Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 201-231, August.
    42. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 160, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    43. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Wealth Shocks and MPC Heterogeneity," CSEF Working Papers 531, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    44. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 148-161, March.
    45. Gerard J. van den Berg & Max Kunaschk & Julia Lang & Gesine Stephan & Arne Uhlendorf, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," Working Papers 2023-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    46. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Economic Policy - the Forth Dimension of the Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 112685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay C. Lim, 2023. "Retail Investor Trading Intentions: New Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(327), pages 512-535, December.
    48. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
    49. Scott R. Baker & Tucker S. McElroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2020. "Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 287-303, May.
    50. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 304-326.
    51. Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero, 2024. "Consumption and income expectations during Covid-19," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 95-116, March.
    52. Dovern, Jonas, 2024. "Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 113-123.
    53. John Ameriks & Gábor Kézdi & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2024. "Order Matters: An Experimental Study on How Question Ordering Affects Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(3), pages 63-114, July.
    55. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    56. Sarah Goldman & Shouyi Zhang, 2022. "Quantitative Easing, Households' Savings and Growth: A Luxembourgish Case Study," Post-Print hal-04080189, HAL.
    57. Gerotto, Luca & Paradiso, Antonio & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2025. "A tale of inattentiveness and the loss function: A model for household-level macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    58. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    59. Chen, Xiaohong & Hansen, Lars Peter & Hansen, Peter G., 2024. "Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 243(1).
    60. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
    61. Jonas Dovern & Lena Sophia Müller & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8179, CESifo.
    62. Sias, Richard & Starks, Laura T. & Turtle, H.J., 2023. "The negativity bias and perceived return distributions: Evidence from a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 627-657.
    63. Marcelo Pedroni & Swapnil Singh & Christian Stoltenberg, 2022. "Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence from Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-032/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    64. Yusuke Aoki & Joon Suk Park & Yuya Takada & Koji Takahashi, 2025. "Expecting job replacement by GenAI: effects on workers' economic outlook and behavior," BIS Working Papers 1269, Bank for International Settlements.
    65. Bańkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Dias Da Silva, António & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny,, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    66. Lars Peter Hansen, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 479-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    67. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," NBER Working Papers 25090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    68. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2018. "Firms' Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers tecipa-620, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    69. Marco Bade & Hans Hirth, 2025. "How underinvestment reduces underpricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1689-1706, April.
    70. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    71. Fernando Borraz & Laura Zacheo, 2018. "Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In)Consistency of Inflation Forecasts," Documentos de trabajo 2018007, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    72. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2236, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    74. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    75. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    76. John R. Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 1975-2049, August.
    77. Ignacio Belloc & José Alberto Molina, 2026. "Households with insufficient liquid assets: Consumption responses to income changes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1107, Boston College Department of Economics.
    78. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    79. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    80. Iliopulos, Eleni & Perego, Erica & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2021. "International business cycles: Information matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 19-34.
    81. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 88531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    82. Sorić, Petar & Lolić, Ivana & Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2019. "Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 64-74.
    83. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," Working Papers wp382, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    84. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Classical Option Pricing and Some Steps Further," MPRA Paper 105431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2020.
    85. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    86. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    87. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan I. Simester, 2018. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 25108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Crossley, Thomas F. & Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    89. Grebe, Moritz & Tillmann, Peter, 2025. "Household expectations and dissent among policymakers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    90. Ori Heffetz & Guy Ishai, 2021. "Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs are Inconsistent with Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    91. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    92. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
    93. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Econophysics of Asset Price, Return and Multiple Expectations," Papers 1901.05024, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    94. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: An empirical analysis based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 17-02, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    95. Poledna, Sebastian & Miess, Michael Gregor & Hommes, Cars & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    96. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
    97. Giuseppe Rose & Desiré De Luca, 2024. "Health Concerns And Consumption Expectations During Covid-19: Evidence From A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design," Working Papers 202401, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    98. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay Lim, 2021. "Retail investor expectations and trading preferences," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    99. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    100. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    101. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
    102. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    103. Hanna Freudenreich & Sindu W. Kebede, 2022. "Experience of shocks, household wealth and expectation formation: Evidence from smallholder farmers in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 756-774, September.
    104. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    105. Li, Lin & Liu, Kunyu & Li, Guoping, 2024. "What can analyst forecasts tell us about imperfect information?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1059-1073.
    106. Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2021. "Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 723-740.
    107. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2021. "Uncertainty of Firms' Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 21042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    108. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    109. Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
    110. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Does Experience Shape Subjective Expectations?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 181, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    111. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Financial Variables, Market Transactions, and Expectations as Functions of Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, November.
    112. Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Meissner, Thomas, 2025. "Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

  23. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jason Abaluck & Leila Agha & David C. Chan Jr & Daniel Singer & Diana Zhu, 2020. "Fixing Misallocation with Guidelines: Awareness vs. Adherence," NBER Working Papers 27467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lydiksen, Nis & Greve, Jane & Jakobsen, Marie & Kristensen, Søren Rud, 2021. "Using national clinical guidelines to reduce practice variation – the case of Denmark," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(6), pages 793-798.
    3. Jason Abaluck & Leila Agha & Sachin Shah, 2025. "Trials Avoid High Risk Patients and Underestimate Drug Harms," NBER Working Papers 34534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  24. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2015. "How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," NBER Working Papers 21701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Schmidpeter, 2023. "Labor Market News and Expectations about Jobs & Earnings," Economics working papers 2023-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Efficient Estimation for Staggered Rollout Designs," Papers 2102.01291, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D’haultfœuille, 2022. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," Post-Print hal-03873885, HAL.
    4. Christoph Koenig & David Schindler, 2019. "Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership, and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 7833, CESifo.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2020. "Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 265-296, January.
    6. Kyunghoon Ban & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2022. "Robust Difference-in-differences Models," Papers 2211.06710, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    7. Soonwoo Kwon & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "(Empirical) Bayes Approaches to Parallel Trends," Papers 2404.11839, arXiv.org.
    8. Isabel Martinez, 2021. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Tax Cuts: Mobility After a Local Income and Wealth Tax Reform in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 21-490, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    9. Tanner Jones & Ryan Quandt, 2025. "An iridescent sunset: An empirical analysis of sunset legislation," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 85-123, October.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    11. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    12. Onil Boussim, 2025. "Compositional difference-in-differences," Papers 2510.11659, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    13. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2020. "Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments," Papers 2008.00602, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    14. Tut, Daniel, 2022. "Investment, Q and epidemic diseases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    15. Ben Deaner & Chen-Wei Hsiang & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Inferring Treatment Effects in Large Panels by Uncovering Latent Similarities," Papers 2503.20769, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    16. Christelis, Dimitris & Messina, Julián, 2019. "Partial Identification of Population Average and Quantile Treatment Effects in Observational Data under Sample Selection," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9520, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Hebous, Shafik & Jia, Zhiyang & Løyland, Knut & Thoresen, Thor O. & Øvrum, Arnstein, 2023. "Do Audits Improve Future Tax Compliance in the Absence of Penalties? Evidence from Random Audits in Norway," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 305-326.
    18. Depalo, Domenico, 2020. "True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 630, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Aibo Gong, 2021. "Bounds for Treatment Effects in the Presence of Anticipatory Behavior," Papers 2111.06573, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    20. John Charles Bradbury, 2024. "Revisiting the novelty effect from new stadiums: An event study approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1722-1747, October.
    21. Jappelli, Tullio & Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 15525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Jinglong Zhao, 2024. "Experimental Design For Causal Inference Through An Optimization Lens," Papers 2408.09607, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    23. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Alyssa Bilinski & John Poe, 2022. "What's Trending in Difference-in-Differences? A Synthesis of the Recent Econometrics Literature," Papers 2201.01194, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    24. Nuno Garoupa & Virginia Rosales & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Assaults on Judicial Independence under the Pretense of Modernization: Evidence from Venezuela," Papers 2511.10681, arXiv.org.
    25. Marco Stenborg Petterson & David Seim & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2023. "Bounds on a Slope from Size Restrictions on Economic Shocks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 552-572, August.
    26. Petros Sekeris & Tanguy van Ypersele, 2020. "An Economic Analysis of Violent Crim," Post-Print hal-03607608, HAL.
    27. Jiafeng Chen, 2022. "Synthetic Control As Online Linear Regression," Papers 2202.08426, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    28. Yidi Liu & Xin Li & Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng, 2024. "Consequences of China’s 2018 Online Lending Regulation and the Promise of PolicyTech," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 1235-1256, September.
    29. Clarke, Damian & Pailañir, Daniel & Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2023. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Estimation," IZA Discussion Papers 15907, IZA Network @ LISER.
    30. Andrew Baker & Brantly Callaway & Scott Cunningham & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2025. "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner's Guide," Papers 2503.13323, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    31. Han, Kevin & Basse, Guillaume & Bojinov, Iavor, 2024. "Population interference in panel experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    32. Soonwoo Kwon & Liyang Sun, 2025. "Estimating Treatment Effects Under Bounded Heterogeneity," Papers 2510.05454, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    33. Junquera, Álvaro F., 2024. "More money, more effect? Employment effects of job search programs in Veneto," SocArXiv rjshu, Center for Open Science.
    34. Brunello, Giorgio & Christelis, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna & Terskaya, Anastasia, 2022. "Does College Selectivity Reduce Obesity? A Partial Identification Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 15612, IZA Network @ LISER.
    35. Ratzanyel Rinc'on & Kyungchul Song, 2025. "Causal Inference with Groupwise Matching," Papers 2510.26106, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    36. Andrea Ciaccio, 2023. "The Impact of a Cost-containment Measure on the Quality of Regional Health Services in Italy: a Parametric and a Non-parametric Approach," Working Papers 2023: 24, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    37. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    38. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences With Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    39. Jonathan Colmer & Jennifer L. Doleac, 2023. "Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: More Restrictive Gun Laws Mitigate the Effect of Temperature on Violence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10525, CESifo.
    40. Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem," NBER Working Papers 27023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    42. Xingfei Liu & Chuhong Wang & Zizhong Yan & Yi Zhao, 2022. "Higher Education Expansion and Crime: New Evidence from China," Working Papers 2022-02, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    43. Vikram Dayal & Anand Murugesan, 2020. "Demystifying causal inference: ingredients of a recipe," IEG Working Papers 393, Institute of Economic Growth.
    44. Yuta Okamoto & Yuuki Ozaki, 2024. "On Extrapolation of Treatment Effects in Multiple-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2412.04265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    45. Billy Ferguson & Brad Ross, 2020. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Synthetic Control Treatment Effect Estimates to Misspecification Error," Papers 2012.15367, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    46. Sheyu Li & Valentyn Litvin & Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups," Papers 2208.03381, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    47. Bach, Philipp & Klaaßen, Sven & Kueck, Jannis & Mattes, Mara & Spindler, Martin, 2025. "Sensitivity analysis for treatment effects in difference-in-differences models using Riesz Rrepresentation," Discussion Papers 2025/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    48. Mechoulan, Stéphane, 2020. "Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 305-326.
    49. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," Papers 2501.02318, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    50. Schmidpeter, Bernhard, 2023. "Labor market news and expectations about jobs & earnings," Ruhr Economic Papers 1030, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    51. Guccio, C. & Pignataro, G. & Vidoli, F., 2024. "It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    52. Schmidpeter, Bernhard, 2023. "Labor Market News and Expectations about Jobs & Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 16524, IZA Network @ LISER.
    53. Depalo, Domenico, 2023. "Should the Daylight Saving Time be abolished? Evidence from work accidents in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    54. Startz, Richard & Steigerwald, Douglas G., 2024. "The variance of regression coefficients when the population is finite," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    55. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    56. Wang, Chuhong & Liu, Xingfei & Yan, Zizhong & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "Higher education expansion and crime: New evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    57. Michael Pollmann, 2020. "Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments," Papers 2011.00373, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    58. Wu, Christopher, 2022. "Should We Trust Regression to Measure Social Disparities?," SocArXiv 4znu5, Center for Open Science.
    59. Pedro Dias Moreira & João Monteiro, 2023. "The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation," Working Papers w202320, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    60. Yiwei Sun, 2023. "Extrapolating Away from the Cutoff in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2311.18136, arXiv.org.
    61. Bondy, Matthew V. & Cai, Samuel V. & Donohue, John J., 2023. "Estimating the effect of U.S. concealed carry laws on homicide: A replication and sensitivity analysis," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    62. Philip Marx & Elie Tamer & Xun Tang, 2022. "Parallel Trends and Dynamic Choices," Papers 2207.06564, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    63. Sadayuki, Taisuke & Arimura, Toshi H., 2021. "Do regional emission trading schemes lead to carbon leakage within firms? Evidence from Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    64. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    65. Roy Allen & John Rehbeck, 2020. "Counterfactual and Welfare Analysis with an Approximate Model," Papers 2009.03379, arXiv.org.
    66. Frondel, Manuel & Thiel, Patrick & Vance, Colin, 2024. "Heterogeneous pass-through over space and time: The case of Germany's fuel tax discount," Ruhr Economic Papers 1087, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    67. Tannenbaum, Daniel I., 2020. "Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    68. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2021. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1449-1469, May.
    69. Philipp Bach & Sven Klaassen & Jannis Kueck & Mara Mattes & Martin Spindler, 2025. "Sensitivity Analysis for Treatment Effects in Difference-in-Differences Models using Riesz Representation," Papers 2510.09064, arXiv.org.
    70. Elena Kotyrlo, 2024. "Simple and complex difference-in-differences approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 73, pages 119-142.
    71. Donohue, John J. & Cai, Samuel V. & Bondy, Matthew V. & Cook, Philip J., 2025. "Why do right to carry laws increase violence? Effects on gun theft and clearance rates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    72. Brantly Callaway, 2022. "Difference-in-Differences for Policy Evaluation," Papers 2203.15646, arXiv.org.
    73. Martínez, Isabel Z., 2022. "Mobility responses to the establishment of a residential tax haven: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

  25. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 20098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Boldin & Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Weather-Adjusting Economic Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 227-278.
    2. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, 2014. "Elusive Facts About Gun Violence: Where Good Surveys Go Bad," SADO - Working Papers 166, Small Arms Data Observatory.
    3. David J. Hand, 2018. "Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 555-605, June.

  26. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2014. "The Quantile Performance of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests to Allocate a Population to Two Treatments," CeMMAP working papers 44/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Federico Echenique & Quitz'e Valenzuela-Stookey, 2024. "Utilitarian Social Choice and Distributional Welfare Analysis," Papers 2411.01315, arXiv.org.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Remarks on statistical inference for statistical decisions," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas M. Russell, 2020. "Policy Transforms and Learning Optimal Policies," Papers 2012.11046, arXiv.org.

  27. Charles Manski & Claudia Neri, 2013. "First- and Second-order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence," 2013 Meeting Papers 73, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2021. "Biases in Belief Reports," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242458, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Julia Jawer & Hedda Nielsen & Georg Weizsäcker, 2025. "Attempting to detect a lie: do we think it through?," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Piotr Evdokimov & Umberto Garfagnini, 2023. "Cognitive Ability and Perceived Disagreement in Learning," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 381, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Konrad, Kai A. & Lohse, Tim & Qari, Salmai, 2011. "Customs compliance and the power of imagination," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2011-108, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    5. Sonsino, Doron & Roth, Yefim, 2025. "The decrease in confidence with forecast extremity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 877-893.
    6. A Stefano Caria & Marcel Fafchamps, 2014. "Cooperation and Expectations in Networks: Evidence from a Network Public Good Experiment in Rural India," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-33, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Kai A. Konrad & Tim Lohse & Salmai Qari, 2015. "Compliance with Endogenous Audit Probabilities," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1493, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2019. "Biases in Beliefs," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203601, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Gee, Laura K. & Schreck, Michael J., 2018. "Do beliefs about peers matter for donation matching? Experiments in the field and laboratory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 282-297.
    10. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Ye Jin, 2021. "Does level-k behavior imply level-k thinking?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 330-353, March.
    12. Dietrichson, Jens & Gudmundsson, Jens & Jochem, Torsten, 2014. "Let's Talk It Over: Communication and Coordination in Teams," Working Papers 2014:2, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Apr 2018.
    13. Sandoval, Héctor & Hancevic, Pedro & Bejarano, Hernán, 2026. "Opportunistic behavior and discrimination in the mexican solar photovoltaic market: An audit experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Irenaeus Wolff & Dominik Bauer, 2018. "Elusive Beliefs: Why Uncertainty Leads to Stochastic Choice and Errors," TWI Research Paper Series 111, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    15. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2019. "Looking at the bright side: The motivational value of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Rasocha, Vlastimil, 2021. "Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 234-256.
    17. Polonio, Luca & Coricelli, Giorgio, 2019. "Testing the level of consistency between choices and beliefs in games using eye-tracking," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 566-586.
    18. Luz, Valentin & Schauer, Victor & Viehweger, Martin, 2024. "Beyond preferences: Beliefs in sustainable investing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 584-607.
    19. Piotr Evdokimov & Umberto Garfagnini, 2022. "Higher-order learning," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1234-1266, September.
    20. Bose, Subir & Daripa, Arup, 2023. "Eliciting second-order beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    21. Charles Bellemare & Sabine Kröger & Kouamé Marius Sossou, 2018. "Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 153-176, October.
    22. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2018. "Looking at the Bright Side: The Motivation Value of Overconfidence," IZA Discussion Papers 11564, IZA Network @ LISER.
    23. Dietrichson, Jens & Gudmundsson, Jens & Jochem, Torsten, 2022. "Why don’t we talk about it? Communication and coordination in teams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 257-278.
    24. Irenaeus Wolff & Dominik Folli, 2024. "Why Is Belief-Action Consistency so Low? The Role of Belief Uncertainty," TWI Research Paper Series 130, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    25. Castillo, Marco E. & Cross, Philip J. & Freer, Mikhail, 2019. "Nonparametric utility theory in strategic settings: Revealing preferences and beliefs from proposal–response games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 60-82.
    26. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
    27. Madarász, Kristóf & Danz, David & Wang, Stephanie, 2018. "The Biases of Others: Projection Equilibrium in an Agency Setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 12867, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Tobias Regner, 2018. "What's behind image? towards a better understanding of image-driven behavior," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-020, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    29. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    30. Dietrichson, Jens & Jochem, Torsten, 2014. "Organizational coordination and costly communication with boundedly rational agents," Comparative Institutional Analysis Working Paper Series 2014:1, Lund University, Comparative Institutional Analysis, School of Economics and Management.
    31. Dominik Bauer & Irenaeus Wolff, 2018. "Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence," TWI Research Paper Series 109, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    32. Christopher P. Chambers & Nicolas S. Lambert, 2021. "Dynamic Belief Elicitation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 375-414, January.
    33. Haber Julita & Brouer Robyn, 2017. "Impressions of Competency: Tactics and a Conceptual Model," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 28-54, December.
    34. Dustan, Andrew & Koutout, Kristine & Leo, Greg, 2022. "Second-order beliefs and gender," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 752-781.
    35. Steven J. Bosworth, 2017. "The importance of higher-order beliefs to successful coordination," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 237-258, March.
    36. Claudia Neri, 2015. "Eliciting beliefs in continuous-choice games: a double auction experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(4), pages 569-608, December.

  28. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. George A. Waters, 2018. "Utilitarian preference for redistribution: a concern with max-min," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 386-396, April.
    2. Dong, Xueqi & Liu, Shuo Li, 2021. "Proportional Tax under Ambiguity," MPRA Paper 107668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cristian F. Sepúlveda, 2024. "Use and Abuse of the Concept of ‘Excess Burden’ in the Theory of Public Finance," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 248(1), pages 143-166, March.

  29. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy," NBER Working Papers 17755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yucel, Emekcan, 2014. "Determinants of the weight for leisure in preferences," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8, pages 1-26.
    3. Schröder, Melanie & Schmitt, Norma & Mantei, Britta & Brünn, Claudia, 2014. "Social Norms or Income Taxation - What Drives Couple's Labor Supply? Experimental Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Haan, Peter & Decoster, Andre, 2013. "Empirical welfare analysis with preference heterogeneity," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79815, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    6. Moutsopoulos, Michael & Pelagidis, Theodore, 2021. "Labor Taxation: Insights From The World Economic Forum Survey," MPRA Paper 110823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Macon, Luke & McLellan, Benjamin & Kanamura, Takashi, 2019. "Climate Policies and the Tax-Interaction Effect, in Context," MPRA Paper 97053, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  30. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Identification of income-leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy," CeMMAP working papers 07/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Soren Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang & Whitney K. Newey, 2015. "Individual heterogeneity, nonlinear budget sets and taxable income," CeMMAP working papers 21/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Pietro Tebaldi & Alexander Torgovitsky & Hanbin Yang, 2019. "Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange," NBER Working Papers 25827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    4. Sören Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang & Whitney Newey, 2023. "Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model," NBER Working Papers 31194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Blomquist, Soren & Kumar, Anil & Liang, Che-Yuan & Newey, Whitney K., 2025. "Nonlinear budget set regressions in random utility models: Theory and application to taxable income," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PB).
    6. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    7. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yucel, Emekcan, 2014. "Determinants of the weight for leisure in preferences," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8, pages 1-26.
    9. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Schröder, Melanie & Schmitt, Norma & Mantei, Britta & Brünn, Claudia, 2014. "Social Norms or Income Taxation - What Drives Couple's Labor Supply? Experimental Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2015. "Labour Supply models," Discussion Papers 807, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Nicolas Treich & Yuting Yang, 2021. "Public safety under imperfect taxation," Post-Print hal-03158749, HAL.
    13. Cherchye, Laurens & Demuynck, Thomas & De Rock, Bram, 2014. "Revealed preference analysis for convex rationalizations on nonlinear budget sets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 224-236.
    14. Abi Adams, 2015. "Mutually consistent revealed preference bounds," IFS Working Papers W15/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Khushboo Surana, 2025. "How different are we? Identifying the degree of revealed preference heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 25/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    17. Ahmad, Khalil & Shahid, Muhammad & Bhatti, Muhammad Kashif & Ali, Amjad, 2024. "Global Perspectives on Fiscal Policy and Labor Income-Leisure Choices: Theoretical and Practical Insights," MPRA Paper 121283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Cristian F. Sepúlveda, 2024. "Use and Abuse of the Concept of ‘Excess Burden’ in the Theory of Public Finance," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 248(1), pages 143-166, March.
    19. Kamat, Vishal, 2019. "Identification with Latent Choice Sets," TSE Working Papers 19-1031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Alexander Torgovitsky, 2019. "Partial identification by extending subdistributions," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 105-144, January.
    21. Yuichi Kitamura & Jörg Stoye, 2018. "Nonparametric Analysis of Random Utility Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1883-1909, November.
    22. Adams-Prassl, Abigail, 2019. "Mutually Consistent Revealed Preference Demand Predictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. André Decoster & Peter Haan, 2015. "Empirical welfare analysis with preference heterogeneity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 224-251, April.
    24. Moutsopoulos, Michael & Pelagidis, Theodore, 2021. "Labor Taxation: Insights From The World Economic Forum Survey," MPRA Paper 110823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    26. Kamat, Vishal, 2024. "Identifying the effects of a program offer with an application to Head Start," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    27. Sören Blomquist & Jerry A. Hausman & Whitney K. Newey, 2023. "The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 287-306, September.
    28. Macon, Luke & McLellan, Benjamin & Kanamura, Takashi, 2019. "Climate Policies and the Tax-Interaction Effect, in Context," MPRA Paper 97053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Soren Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2019. "On Bunching and Identi?cation of the Taxable Income Elasticity," CeMMAP working papers CWP53/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "More on random utility models with bounded ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 205-213, March.
    31. Stefan Hoderlein & Jörg Stoye, 2015. "Testing stochastic rationality and predicting stochastic demand: the case of two goods," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(2), pages 313-328, October.
    32. Zheng Fang & Andres Santos & Azeem M. Shaikh & Alexander Torgovitsky, 2023. "Inference for Large‐Scale Linear Systems With Known Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 299-327, January.
    33. Timothy Christensen & Benjamin Connault, 2023. "Counterfactual Sensitivity and Robustness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 263-298, January.

  31. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy analysis with incredible certitude," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Ding & Millimet, Daniel L., 2020. "Bounding the Joint Distribution of Disability and Employment with Contaminated Data," IZA Discussion Papers 13020, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Olle Frödin, 2015. "Researching Governance for Sustainable Development: Some Conceptual Clarifications," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 31(4), pages 447-466, December.
    3. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz & Qianying Chen,, 2012. "Market and Non-Market Monetary Policy Tools in a Calibrated DSGE Model for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21207, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mourifié, Ismael & Wan, Yuanyuan, 2025. "Layered policy analysis in program evaluation using the marginal treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    5. Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2015. "“Dynamic Scoring”: Why and How to Include Macroeconomic Effects in Budget Estimates for Legislative Proposals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 91-149.
    6. Whittington, Dale & Jeuland, Marc & Barker, Kate & Yuen, Yvonne, 2012. "Setting Priorities, Targeting Subsidies among Water, Sanitation, and Preventive Health Interventions in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1546-1568.
    7. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    8. Alves, Carolina & Kvangraven, Ingrid Harvold, . "Changing the Narrative: Economics After Covid-19," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 10(01).
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-653, September.
    10. Rafael Araujo & Vitor Possebom, 2025. "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies," Papers 2502.12141, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    11. Depalo, Domenico, 2020. "True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 630, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2023. "Rural electrification, the credibility revolution, and the limits of evidence-based policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 1051, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Vitor Possebom, 2021. "Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification," Papers 2106.00536, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    14. Jörg Stoye, 2022. "Bounding infection prevalence by bounding selectivity and accuracy of tests: with application to early COVID-19," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14.
    15. Mukashov, Askar, 2021. "Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2021-01, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    16. Hunt Allcott, 2012. "Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 18373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    18. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    19. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    20. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 20098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Armstrong, Christopher S. & Glaeser, Stephen & Kepler, John D., 2019. "Strategic reactions in corporate tax planning," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1).
    22. Andrea Migone & Alexander Howlett & Michael Howlett, 2023. "The politics of military megaprojects: discursive struggles in Canadian and Australian naval shipbuilding strategies," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 42(2), pages 226-244.
    23. Seán M. Muller, 2021. "Evidence for a YETI? A Cautionary Tale from South Africa's Youth Employment Tax Incentive," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(6), pages 1301-1342, November.
    24. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY," Speech 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Robert W. Wassmer & Ryan S. Ong & Geoffrey Propheter, 2016. "Suggestions for the Needed Standardization of Determining the Local Economic Impact of Professional Sports," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 30(3), pages 252-266, August.
    26. Hashem M. Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2011. "Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket," CESifo Working Paper Series 3447, CESifo.
    27. Ziesmer, Johannes & Jin, Ding & Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian, 2023. "Integrating fundamental model uncertainty in policy analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    28. Depalo, Domenico, 2023. "Should the Daylight Saving Time be abolished? Evidence from work accidents in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    29. Muller, Sean, 2014. "Randomised trials for policy: a review of the external validity of treatment effects," SALDRU Working Papers 127, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    31. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jun Rentschler, 2015. "Risk Management for Development—Assessing Obstacles and Prioritizing Action," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 193-210, February.
    32. Ding Liu & Daniel L. Millimet, 2021. "Bounding the joint distribution of disability and employment with misclassification," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1628-1647, July.
    33. Lawrence Mead, 2015. "Only connect: Why government often ignores research," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 48(2), pages 257-272, June.
    34. Muller, Seán M., 2020. "The implications of a fundamental contradiction in advocating randomized trials for policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    35. Charles F. Manski, 2025. "What is the general Welfare? Welfare Economic Perspectives on Equity," Papers 2501.08244, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    36. Bartalotti, Otávio & Kédagni, Désiré & Possebom, Vitor, 2023. "Identifying marginal treatment effects in the presence of sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 565-584.
    37. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2015. "Over consumption. A horse race of Bayesian DSGE models," MPRA Paper 66445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Ronald B. Davies & Joseph Francois, 2018. "Making the Worst of a Bad Situation: A Note on Irexit," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 455-462.
    39. Matthew Read, 2026. "Shock-percentile Restrictions for SVARs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2026-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    40. Maren Duvendack & Richard Palmer-Jones, 2013. "Replication of quantitative work in development studies: Experiences and suggestions," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 13(4), pages 307-322, October.

  32. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2011. "Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections," NBER Working Papers 17455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefanie Hof, 2014. "Does Private Tutoring Work? The Effectiveness of Private Tutoring: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0096, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    2. Berit C. Gerritzen & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2013. "Facts or Ideology: What Determines the Results of Econometric Estimates of the Deterrence Effect of Death Penalty? A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4159, CESifo.
    3. Berit C. Gerritzen & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2013. "Facts or Ideology: What Determines the Results of Econometric Estimates of the Deterrence Effect of Death Penalty?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    4. Daniel Millimet & Manan Roy, 2015. "Partial identification of the long-run causal effect of food security on child health," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 83-141, February.

  33. Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Identification of treatment response with social interactions," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/10, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Supriya Tiwari & Pallavi Basu, 2024. "Quasi-randomization tests for network interference," Papers 2403.16673, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    2. Alan Andre Borges da Costa & Sergio Pinheiro Firpo, 2018. "An analysis of the distributive effects of public policies and their spillovers," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_06, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Donald P. Green & Adam Zelizer & Winston Lin, 2021. "How Effective Are Radio Messages Aimed at Reducing Teen Births Among Latinas? A Randomized Controlled Trial," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(4), pages 695-722, August.
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    27. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
    28. Jonas Dovern & Lena Sophia Müller & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 8179, CESifo.
    29. Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.
    30. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Bańkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Dias Da Silva, António & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny,, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    32. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    33. Taniya Ghosh & Abhishek Gorsi, 2024. "Inflation expectations and keeping up with the Joneses," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2024-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    34. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    35. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Inflation Expectations on Households' Beliefs and Actions," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2024-05, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised May 2025.
    36. Antonio Calcagnì & Luigi Lombardi, 2022. "Modeling random and non-random decision uncertainty in ratings data: a fuzzy beta model," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(1), pages 145-173, March.
    37. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    38. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    39. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    40. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2021. "Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 784-807, September.
    41. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    42. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2019, Bank of Finland.
    43. Vadim Grishchenko & Diana Gasanova & Egor Fomin & Grigory Korenyak, 2023. "Visible prices and their influence on inflation expectations of Russian households," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps117, Bank of Russia.
    44. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    45. Nikola Mirkov & Andreas Steinhauer, 2014. "Are subjective distributions in inflation expectations symmetric?," ECON - Working Papers 173, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    46. Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2026. "All forecasters are not the same: Systematic patterns in predictive performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 235-258.
    47. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    48. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    49. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    50. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions," IZA Discussion Papers 17317, IZA Network @ LISER.
    51. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.
    52. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Yin, Xiao, 2024. "Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings," IZA Discussion Papers 17120, IZA Network @ LISER.
    53. Vanessa Martins Valcanover & Igor Bernardi Sonza & Wesley Vieira da Silva, 2020. "Behavioral Finance Experiments: A Recent Systematic Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    54. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander, 2025. "Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys," Discussion Papers 22/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    55. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    56. Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2014. "Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Dispersion and Disagreement Within Demographic Groups," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    58. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    59. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 602-623, August.
    60. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
    61. Jain, Monica & Kostyshyna, Olena & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "How do people view wage and price inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    62. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Staff Reports 800, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    63. Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
    64. Ghosh, Taniya & Gorsi, Abhishek, 2025. "Peer influence and inflation expectations: Evidence from households’ social comparisons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    65. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    66. Petra Gerlach & Peter Hördahl & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "Inflation expectations and the great recession," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    67. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
    68. Nikoleta Anesti & Vania Esady & Matthew Naylor, 2024. "Food prices matter most: Sensitive household inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 2434, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    69. Nikoleta Anesti & Edward Hill & Andreas Joseph, 2025. "Inflation Attitudes of Large Language Models," Papers 2512.14306, arXiv.org.

  35. Charles F. Manski, 2009. "WHEN CONSENSUS CHOICE DOMINATES INDIVIDUALISM: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 15172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Hanming Fang & Peter Norman, 2014. "Toward an efficiency rationale for the public provision of private goods," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(2), pages 375-408, June.
    2. Kniesner, Thomas J. & Viscusi, W. Kip & Ziliak, James P., 2009. "Policy Relevant Heterogeneity in the Value of Statistical Life: New Evidence from Panel Data Quantile Regressions," IZA Discussion Papers 4508, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Moshe Ben-Akiva & André Palma & Daniel McFadden & Maya Abou-Zeid & Pierre-André Chiappori & Matthieu Lapparent & Steven Durlauf & Mogens Fosgerau & Daisuke Fukuda & Stephane Hess & Charles Manski & Ar, 2012. "Process and context in choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 439-456, June.
    4. Konstadinos G. Goulias & Ram M. Pendyala, 2014. "Choice context," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 5, pages 101-130, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    6. Nir Billfeld & Moshe Kim, 2019. "Semiparametric correction for endogenous truncation bias with Vox Populi based participation decision," Papers 1902.06286, arXiv.org.

  36. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment," NBER Working Papers 14378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio, 2010. "Market equilibria under procedural rationality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1140-1172, November.
    2. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def007, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2009. "Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity," NBER Working Papers 15479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 441-459, March.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2009. "Complexity and Financial Panics," NBER Working Papers 14997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

  37. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Partial Prescriptions For Decisions With Partial Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 14396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

  38. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Adaptive partial policy innovation: coping with ambiguity through diversification," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment," NBER Working Papers 14378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Partial Prescriptions For Decisions With Partial Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 14396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  39. Manski, Charles & Lach, Saul & Blass, Asher, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Yifan Gong & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2019. "Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 26334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Romuald Meango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger, 2023. "Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay," Papers 2303.03009, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    3. Collewet, Marion & Fairley, Kim & Kessels, Roselinde & Knoef, Marike & van Vliet, Olaf, 2024. "The design of welfare: unraveling taxpayers' preferences," OSF Preprints 4am7e, Center for Open Science.
    4. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Maurel, Arnaud & Romano, Teresa, 2014. "Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data," IZA Discussion Papers 8549, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2013. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," NBER Working Papers 19165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cameron, Trudy Ann & DeShazo, J.R., 2013. "Demand for health risk reductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 87-109.
    7. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Agnès Charpin & Josep Amer-Mestre & Noémi Berlin & Magali Dumontet, 2024. "Gender Differences in Early Occupational Choices: Evidence from Medical Specialty Selection," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Chad Kendall & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Trebbi, 2013. "How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign," Working Papers 486, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Danilo Cavapozzi & Marco Francesconi & Cheti Nicoletti, 2024. "Dividing Housework between Partners: Individual Preferences and Social Norms," CESifo Working Paper Series 11413, CESifo.
    11. Liao, Fanchao & Dissanayake, Dilum & Homem de Almeida Correia, Gonçalo, 2024. "Modelling the complementarity and flexibility between different shared modes available in smart electric mobility hubs (eHUBS)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    13. Morita, Tamaki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Consumers’ willingness to pay for electricity after the Great East Japan Earthquake," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-105.
    14. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment," Staff Reports 500, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Poinas, François & Méango, Romuald, 2023. "The (Option-)Value of Overstaying," TSE Working Papers 23-1478, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    16. Romuald Meango & Marc Henry & Ismael Mourifie, 2025. "Combining stated and revealed preferences," Papers 2507.13552, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    17. Pedersen, Line Bjørnskov & Mørkbak, Morten Raun & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2020. "Handling resolvable uncertainty from incomplete scenarios in future doctors' job choice – Probabilities vs discrete choices," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    18. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2019. "On the effects of capacity payments in competitive electricity markets: Capacity adequacy, price cap, and reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 370-385.
    19. Pamela Giustinelli & Edwin Leuven, 2026. "Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions," Working Papers 2026-002, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    20. Romuald Meango, 2023. "Using Probabilistic Stated Preference Analyses to Understand Actual Choices," Papers 2307.13966, arXiv.org.
    21. Boneva, T. & Golin, M. & Rauh, C., 2021. "Can Perceived Returns Explain Enrollment Gaps in Postgraduate Education?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2140, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Conti, G. & Giustinelli, P., 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    23. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2011. "Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20111, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    24. Rachel Baker & Eric Bettinger & Brian Jacob & Ioana Marinescu, 2017. "The Effect of Labor Market Information on Community College Students’ Major Choice," NBER Working Papers 23333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Kosar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2019. "Understanding Migration Aversion Using Elicited Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 12271, IZA Network @ LISER.
    26. Armantier, Olivier & Sbordone, Argia & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Williams, John C., 2022. "A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 82-101.
    27. Conti, Gabriella & Giustinelli, Pamela, 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 16143, IZA Network @ LISER.
    28. Acton, Riley & Cook, Emily E. & Ugalde Araya, Paola, 2025. "Political Views and College Choices in a Polarized America," IZA Discussion Papers 18099, IZA Network @ LISER.
    29. Kim, Hyeon-Woong & Sung, Jae-hoon, 2024. "An Analysis of Preference for the Rural Residential environment and Landscape Improvements," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343815, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    30. Franceschinis, Cristiano & Thiene, Mara & Scarpa, Riccardo & Rose, John & Moretto, Michele & Cavalli, Raffaele, 2017. "Adoption of renewable heating systems: An empirical test of the diffusion of innovation theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 313-326.
    31. Collewet, Marion & Koster, Paul, 2023. "Preference estimation from point allocation experiments," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    32. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Van Soest, Arthur & Bissonnette, Luc, 2020. "Understanding joint retirement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 386-401.
    33. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    34. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Preference for the workplace, investment in human capital, and gender," Staff Reports 767, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    35. Delavande, Adeline & Del Bono, Emilia & Holford, Angus, 2022. "Academic and non-academic investments at university: The role of expectations, preferences and constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 74-97.
    36. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2024. "Valuing flexible resources in the Korean electricity market based on stated preference methods," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    37. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 940-959, November.
    38. Dekker, Thijs & Hess, Stephane & Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2016. "Decision uncertainty in multi-attribute stated preference studies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-73.
    39. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Shiu, A. & Cheng, Y.S. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 204-210.
    40. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Kang, Songman, 2012. "Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 3-16.
    41. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Human capital investments and expectations about career and family," Staff Reports 792, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    42. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Identification of income-leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy," CeMMAP working papers 07/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    43. Jamie Hentall-MacCuish, 2019. "Costly Attention and Retirement," Papers 1904.06520, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    44. Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Schleich, Joachim & Rennings, Klaus & Heinzle, Stefanie & Brohmann, Bettina, 2009. "What's Driving Sustainable Energy Consumption? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    45. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy," NBER Working Papers 17755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Pamela Giustinelli, 2011. "Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choices of High School Tracks," Working Papers 2011-030, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    47. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," Staff Reports 1018, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    48. Jin, Taeyoung, 2025. "Evaluating the value of lost load to South Korea's residential electricity consumers by stated and revealed preference methods," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    49. Jimenez Mori, Raul Alberto, 2017. "Are Blackout Days Free of Charge?: Valuation of Individual Preferences for Improved Electricity Services," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8424, Inter-American Development Bank.
    50. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Preference for the Workplace, Human Capital, and Gender," NBER Working Papers 22173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    52. Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun & Swait, Joffre & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2021. "Distortions in willingness-to-pay for public goods induced by endemic distrust in institutions," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    53. Frondel, Manuel & Sommer, Stephan & Tomberg, Lukas, 2019. "WTA-WTP disparity: The role of perceived realism of the valuation setting," Ruhr Economic Papers 832, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    54. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, IZA Network @ LISER.
    55. Juerg Schweri, 2021. "Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 544-563, March.
    56. Yu Zheng & Juan Pantano, 2012. "Using Subjective Expectations Data to Allow for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Hotz-Miller Estimation Strategies," 2012 Meeting Papers 940, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    57. Romauld Méango, 2023. "Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities," Economics Series Working Papers 1007, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    58. Christian A. Vossler & Maurice Doyon & Daniel Rondeau, 2012. "Truth in Consequentiality: Theory and Field Evidence on Discrete Choice Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 145-171, November.
    59. Ruder, Alexander I. & Van Noy, Michelle, 2017. "Knowledge of earnings risk and major choice: Evidence from an information experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 80-90.
    60. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    61. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," Working Papers wp382, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    62. Patrick Lloyd-Smith & Craig Schram & Wiktor Adamowicz & Diane Dupont, 2018. "Endogeneity of Risk Perceptions in Averting Behavior Models," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 217-246, February.
    63. John Ameriks & Joseph S. Briggs & Andrew Caplin & Matthew D. Shapiro & Christopher Tonetti, 2015. "Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving," NBER Working Papers 20973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Raul Jimenez Mori, 2025. "Valuation of household preferences for improved electricity services," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1153-1185, September.
    65. Cecere, Grazia & Corrocher, Nicoletta & Guerzoni, Marco, 2018. "Price or performance? A probabilistic choice analysis of the intention to buy electric vehicles in European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 19-32.
    66. Meango, Romuald & Girsberger, Esther Mirjam, 2024. "Identification of Ex Ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities: An Application to Preferences for Public-Sector Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 17174, IZA Network @ LISER.
    67. Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop, 2017. "Do wage expectations predict college enrollment? Evidence from healthcare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 135-150.
    68. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner & Yuxi Yao, 2022. "The Role of Non-Pecuniary Considerations: Locations Decisions of College Graduates from Low Income Backgrounds," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20221, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    69. Fujimoto, Takashi & Watanabe, Masahide, 2022. "Comparison of the price adjustment program and subsidy scheme in Japan: Evaluation of domestic sugar support policy to internalize positive externalities," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    70. Morrissey, Karyn & Plater, Andrew & Dean, Mary, 2018. "The cost of electric power outages in the residential sector: A willingness to pay approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 141-150.
    71. Amoah, Anthony & Ferrini, Silvia & Schaafsma, Marije, 2019. "Electricity outages in Ghana: Are contingent valuation estimates valid?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    72. Elif Bodur, 2025. "Effect of Media on Aspirations: Gender Heterogeneity," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_627, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    73. Felix Aidala & Gizem Koşar & Daniel Mangrum & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2025. "Understanding Consumer Demand for “Buy Now, Pay Later”," Staff Reports 1167, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    74. Aweke, Abinet Tilahun & Navrud, Ståle, 2022. "Valuing energy poverty costs: Household welfare loss from electricity blackouts in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    75. Ghosh, Ranjan & Goyal, Yugank & Rommel, Jens & Sagebiel, Julian, 2017. "Are small firms willing to pay for improved power supply? Evidence from a contingent valuation study in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 659-665.
    76. Kim, Kayoung & Nam, Heekoo & Cho, Youngsang, 2015. "Estimation of the inconvenience cost of a rolling blackout in the residential sector: The case of South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-86.
    77. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2023. "Value of lost load estimation for the South Korea's manufacturing sector—finding the gap between the supply and demand side," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    78. Bernadeta Gołębiowska, 2020. "Preferences for demand side management—a review of choice experiment studies," Working Papers 2020-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    79. Holm, Håkan J. & Samahita, Margaret & van Veldhuizen, Roel & Wengström, Erik, 2025. "Anchoring and subjective belief distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

  40. Charles F Manski, 2007. "Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001404, David K. Levine.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Takuya Ishihara, 2023. "Bandwidth selection for treatment choice with binary outcomes," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 539-549, October.
    3. Eli Ben-Michael, 2025. "Partial identification via conditional linear programs: estimation and policy learning," Papers 2506.12215, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    4. García-Pola, Bernardo, 2020. "Do people minimize regret in strategic situations? A level-k comparison," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 82-104.
    5. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
    6. Lihua Lei & Roshni Sahoo & Stefan Wager, 2023. "Policy Learning under Biased Sample Selection," Papers 2304.11735, arXiv.org.
    7. Johannes Cordier, 2026. "Optimizing Patient Placement in Normal Care Units: An Instrumental Causal Forest Approach Minimizing Mortality," Papers 2601.01149, arXiv.org.
    8. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    10. Goller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Pongratz, Tamara & Wolff, Joachim, 2025. "Active labor market policies for the long-term unemployed: New evidence from causal machine learning," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," Papers 1912.08726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    12. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Clinical trial design enabling ε-optimal treatment rules," CeMMAP working papers 60/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  41. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2015. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 21092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
    6. Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2025. "A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    8. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2018. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks' inflation outlooks," Discussion Papers 56/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    12. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., "undated". "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269751, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    14. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    16. Patrick Schmidt & Matthias Katzfuss & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 728-743, September.
    17. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2019. "Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations," ifo Working Paper Series 311, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Joris Wauters & Zivile Zekaite & Garo Garabedian, 2024. "Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 11, Stata Users Group.
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    20. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    21. Xiaoxiao Niu & Nigel Harvey, 2022. "Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3-4), September.
    22. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies," Working Papers 2018-11, Swiss National Bank.
    23. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
    24. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0723, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    25. Mary A. Burke & Ali Ozdagli, 2020. "Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers 20-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    26. Clements, Michael P., "undated". "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    27. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    28. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
    29. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    30. Moritz Grebe & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Household Expectations and Dissent Among Policymakers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202226, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    31. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Clements, Michael P. & Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2025. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    33. Marco Bottone, 2025. "Comparing survey measures of firms’ expectations and uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 393-430, July.
    34. Gizem Koşar & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Staff Reports 1056, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    35. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-30, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    36. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    37. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2024. "From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1675-1704, October.
    38. Annekatrin Schrenker, 2022. "Do Women Expect Wage Cuts for Part-time Work?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2024, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    39. Tobias Fissler & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2022. "Sensitivity Measures Based on Scoring Functions," Papers 2203.00460, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    40. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    41. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Welz, M., 2018. "Evaluating heterogeneous forecasts for vintages of macroeconomic variables," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-47, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    42. Philip Schnattinger & Prachi Srivastava, 2025. "Household Inflation Uncertainty and Wage Growth Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 12216, CESifo.
    43. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    44. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2020. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," Working Paper Series in Economics 139, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    45. Philippe Andrade & Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
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    50. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    51. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
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    53. Han Su & Xiaojia Guo & Xiaoke Zhang, 2026. "Regularized Ensemble Forecasting for Learning Weights from Historical and Current Forecasts," Papers 2602.11379, arXiv.org.
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    60. Deniz Igan & Thomas Lambert & Prachi Mishra & Eden Zhang, 2024. "The Politics of the Paycheck Protection Program," Working Papers 133, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
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    63. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
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    23. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory III. Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 94053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    45. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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    47. Paiella, Monica, 2016. "Financial literacy and subjective expectations questions: A validation exercise," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 360-374.
    48. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon, 2013. "Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 19103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    50. Briggs, Joseph & Cesarini, David & Lindqvist, Erik & Östling, Robert, 2021. "Windfall gains and stock market participation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 57-83.
    51. Alessandro Bucciol & Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2015. "Return Expectations and Risk Aversion Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," Working Papers 01/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    52. Afik, Zvika & Lahav, Yaron, 2015. "Thinking near and far: Modeling the formation of traders’ beliefs in asset markets using experimental data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 73-80.
    53. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    54. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Expectations, Price Fluctuations and Lorenz Attractor," MPRA Paper 89105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
    56. Charles Bellemare & Sabine Kröger & Kouamé Marius Sossou, 2018. "Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 153-176, October.
    57. Thomas Bridges & Frank Stafford, 2012. "At the Corner of Main and Wall Street: Family Pension Responses to Liquidity Change and Perceived Returns," Working Papers wp282, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    58. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
    59. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment," Staff Reports 798, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    60. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    61. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    62. Bing Chen & Frank P. Stafford, 2016. "Stock Market Participation: Family Responses to Housing Consumption Commitments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 635-659, June.
    63. Luc Arrondel & André Masson, 2017. "Why does household demand for shares decline during the crisis? The French case," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 155-177.
    64. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd & Ulm, Eric R., 2017. "Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 430-448.
    65. Shin, Michael, 2021. "Subjective expectations, experiences, and stock market participation: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 672-689.
    66. Carlos Alos Ferrer & Michele Garagnani, 2025. "Who Likes It More?," Working Papers 424225030, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    67. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2012. "From the horse’s mouth: how do investor expectations of risk and return vary with economic conditions?," Working Paper Series WP-2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    69. Karolina Anna Nowak & Marcin Wiśniewski & Michał Litwiński, 2025. "Is It Worth Investing in Tokens? Investment Performance of Digital Tokens in Financial and Axiological Contexts," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 663-690, March.
    70. El-Attar, Mayssun & Poschke, Markus, 2010. "Trust and the Choice Between Housing and Financial Assets: Evidence from Spanish Households," IZA Discussion Papers 5246, IZA Network @ LISER.
    71. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    72. Miles Kimball, 2015. "Cognitive Economics," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 167-181, June.
    73. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
    74. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2024. "House price expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 379-398.
    75. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Econophysics of Asset Price, Return and Multiple Expectations," Papers 1901.05024, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    76. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    77. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    78. Cassella, Stefano & Chen, Te-Feng & Gulen, Huseyin & Liu, Yan, 2025. "Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices : An augmented present-value approac," Other publications TiSEM a19ca154-f344-4cd5-b2e5-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    79. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay Lim, 2021. "Retail investor expectations and trading preferences," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    80. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
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    83. Brooke Helppie McFall & Amanda Sonnega & Robert J. Willis & Peter Hudomiet, 2015. "Occupations and Work Characteristics: Effects on Retirement Expectations and Timing," Working Papers wp331, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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  43. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," NBER Working Papers 11848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Dominitz & John Knowles, 2005. "Crime Minimization and Racial Bias: What Can We Learn From Police Search Data?," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    3. Brendan O'Flaherty & Rajiv Sethi & Morgan Williams, 2024. "The nature, detection, and avoidance of harmful discrimination in criminal justice," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 289-320, January.
    4. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2004. "Using Hit Rate Tests to Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforcement: Vehicle Searches in Wichita," NBER Working Papers 10947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment," NBER Working Papers 14378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Partial Prescriptions For Decisions With Partial Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 14396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
    9. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2005. "Using Hit Rates to Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforcement: Vehicle Searches in Wichita," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    11. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
    12. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 441-459, March.
    13. Stoye, Jörg, 2009. "Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 70-81, July.
    14. Brock, William A. & Cooley, Jane & Durlauf, Steven N. & Navarro, Salvador, 2012. "On the observational implications of taste-based discrimination in racial profiling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 66-78.
    15. Nicolás Grau & Damián Vergara, "undated". "A Simple Test for Prejudice in Decision Processes: The Prediction-Based Outcome Test," Working Papers wp493, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    16. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Optimal Search Profiling with Linear Deterrence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 122-126, May.
    17. Garrett, Daniel F., 2014. "Robustness of simple menus of contracts in cost-based procurement," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 631-641.
    18. Juliano Assuncao & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," Working Papers tecipa-631, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Adaptive partial policy innovation: coping with ambiguity through diversification," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

  44. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pietro Dindo & Filippo Massari, 2017. "The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies," Working Papers 2017:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2018.
    3. Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    6. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," IDEI Working Papers 775, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    7. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    8. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Stefan Palan & Jürgen Huber & Larissa Senninger, 2020. "Aggregation mechanisms for crowd predictions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 788-814, September.
    10. Ray Fair & Cowles Discussion & Yale Working, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2643, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    11. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2009. "Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 264-281, April.
    12. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
    13. Amalia Di Girolamo & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & J. Todd Swarthout, 2013. "Characterizing Financial and Statistical Literacy," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    14. Antonio Filippin & Marco Mantovani, 2023. "Risk aversion and information aggregation in binary‐asset markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 753-798, May.
    15. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel von der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for your Thoughts: A Survey of Methods of Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers vie1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    16. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 12083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    18. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    19. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
    20. Casas, Agustin & Fawaz, Yarine & Trindade, Andre, 2014. "Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1416, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    21. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000427, UCLA Department of Economics.
    22. Hardhik Mohanty & Bhaskar Krishnamachari, 2026. "Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility? Evidence from Kalshi Macro Contracts," Papers 2604.01431, arXiv.org.
    23. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1579, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2007.
    24. Tom Auld & Oliver Linton, 2018. "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    25. Ashwin K. Seshadri, 2015. "Nonconvex Equilibrium Prices in Prediction Markets," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, March.
    26. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 723-746, August.
    28. Schneider, Mark, 2020. "A bias aggregation theorem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    29. Dirk Bergemann & Marco Ottaviani, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2296, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    30. Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis & Carl Singleton, 2019. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Apr 2021.
    31. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    32. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2012. "Impacts of Political Majorities on French Firms: Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections?," Working Papers halshs-00671405, HAL.
    33. Agrawal, Shipra & Megiddo, Nimrod & Armbruster, Benjamin, 2010. "Equilibrium in prediction markets with buyers and sellers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 46-49, October.
    34. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning in Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," Papers 2112.10993, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    35. Dian Yu & Jianjun Gao & Weiping Wu & Zizhuo Wang, 2022. "Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis," Papers 2205.08913, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    36. Hassett, Kevin & Zhong, Weifeng, 2017. "On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 82998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Shaw Dalen, 2026. "What Happens When Institutional Liquidity Enters Prediction Markets: Identification, Measurement, and a Synthetic Proof of Concept," Papers 2604.10005, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    38. Mark Schneider, 2019. "A Bias Aggregation Theorem," Working Papers 19-03, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    39. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
    40. Axén, Gustav & Cortis, Dominic, 2019. "Extending the price constraints of betting markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 181-188.
    41. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
    42. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    43. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    44. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
    45. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
    46. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," Post-Print halshs-00990241, HAL.
    47. Urmee Khan, 2016. "State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic," Working Papers 201609, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    48. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2016. "Far from the Madding Crowd: Collective Wisdom in Prediction Markets," LEM Papers Series 2016/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    49. Caleb Maresca, 2026. "Can Interest-Bearing Positions Solve the Long-Horizon Problem in Prediction Markets?," Papers 2602.21091, arXiv.org.
    50. Razvan Tarnaud, 2019. "Convergence within binary market scoring rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(4), pages 1017-1050, November.
    51. Ray Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2406, Yale School of Management.
    52. David Gbaguidi, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119.
    53. Boyle, Glenn & Videbeck, Steen, 2005. "A Primer on Information Markets," Working Paper Series 18948, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    54. Deck, Cary & Hao, Li & Porter, David, 2015. "Do prediction markets aid defenders in a weak-link contest?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 248-258.
    55. Katarina Kalovcova & Andreas Ortmann, 2009. "Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp397, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    56. Waldhausen, Henry & Griffin, Christopher, 2025. "Binary option market manipulation by influencing belief dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 680(C).
    57. Pietro Dindo & Filippo Massari, 2025. "Learning Models from Prices," Working Papers 2025: 17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    58. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    59. John Fountain & Glenn Harrison, 2011. "What do prediction markets predict?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 267-272.
    60. Enke, Benjamin & Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2024. "Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    61. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
    62. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    63. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    64. C. O. Iroham & M. E. Emetere & H. I. Okagbue & O. Ogunkoya & O. D. Durodola & N. J. Peter & O. M. Akinwale, 2019. "Modified Pricing Model for Negotiation of Mortgage Valuation Between Estate Surveyors and Valuers and Their Clients," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 20(4), pages 337-347, December.
    65. Ziesmer, Johannes & Jin, Ding & Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian, 2023. "Integrating fundamental model uncertainty in policy analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    66. Urmee Khan, 2016. "State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 4(1), pages 70-77, June.
    67. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
    68. Joachim R. Groeger, 2016. "The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets," Papers 1609.03471, arXiv.org.
    69. Rothschild, David, 2015. "Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 952-964.
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    72. Camerer, Colin & Dreber, Anna & Forsell, Eskil & Ho, Teck-Hua & Huber, Jurgen & Johannesson, Magnus & Kirchler, Michael & Almenberg, Johan & Altmejd, Adam & Chan, Taizan & Heikensten, Emma & Holzmeist, 2016. "Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in Economics," MPRA Paper 75461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    74. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
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    16. Yonatan Eyal, 2020. "Self-Assessment Variables as a Source of Information in the Evaluation of Intervention Programs: A Theoretical and Methodological Framework," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    17. ,, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2005. "Social Security and the Retirement and Savings Behavior of Low Income Households," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. Sita Slavov & Devon Gorry & Aspen Gorry & Frank N. Caliendo, 2017. "Social Security and Saving: An Update," NBER Working Papers 23506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Louis Kaplow, 2006. "Myopia and the Effects of Social Security and Capital Taxation on Labor Supply," NBER Working Papers 12452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  48. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2008. "Learning About Academic Ability and the College Drop-Out Decision," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20086, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    3. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2013. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," NBER Working Papers 18945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guzman, Giselle C., 2008. "Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns," MPRA Paper 36653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2011. "Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20111, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    7. Maurizio Bovi, 2006. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," ISAE Working Papers 66, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    8. Murat Kırdar, 2013. "Source country characteristics and immigrants’ optimal migration duration decision," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Guzman, Giselle C., 2008. "Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns," MPRA Paper 36505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    12. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  49. Sanghamitra Das & Charles F. Manski & Mark D. Manuszak, 2003. "Walk or wait?: An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions," Discussion Papers 03-09, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.

    Cited by:

    1. Ran Zhang & Zhonghua Wei & Heng Gu & Shi Qiu, 2021. "Behavior Evolution of Multi-Group in the Process of Pedestrian Crossing Based on Evolutionary Game Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Avineri, Erel & Shinar, David & Susilo, Yusak O., 2011. "Pedestrians’ behaviour in cross walks: The effects of fear of falling and age," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:18, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. P S, Karthika & Verma, Ashish, 2023. "Evaluating the gap choice decisions of pedestrians in conflict situations in mass religious gatherings and controlled experimental setup – A pilot study," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Wafaa Saleh & Monika Grigorova & Samia Elattar, 2020. "Pedestrian Road Crossing at Uncontrolled Mid-Block Locations: Does the Refuge Island Increase Risk?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Raul Almeida & Emanuel Sousa & Dário Machado & Frederico Pereira & Susana Faria & Elisabete Freitas, 2024. "Analysis of the Interaction between Humans and Autonomous Vehicles Equipped with External Human–Machine Interfaces: The Effect of an Experimental Reward Mechanism on Pedestrian Crossing Behavior in a Virtual Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Dirk Helbing & Lubos Buzna & Anders Johansson & Torsten Werner, 2005. "Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowd Dynamics: Experiments, Simulations, and Design Solutions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Yang, Jianguo & Deng, Wen & Wang, Jinmei & Li, Qingfeng & Wang, Zhaoan, 2006. "Modeling pedestrians' road crossing behavior in traffic system micro-simulation in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 280-290, March.

  50. Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2002. "Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Iyer, S. & Weeks, M., 2009. "Social Interactions, Ethnicity and Fertility in Kenya," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0903, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Miles S. Kimball & Colter M. Mitchell & Arland D. Thornton & Linda C. Young-Demarco, 2009. "Empirics on the Origins of Preferences: The Case of College Major and Religiosity," NBER Working Papers 15182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Angrist, Josh & Lavy, Victor & Schlosser, Analia, 2006. "New Evidence on the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children," CEPR Discussion Papers 5668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Iyer, Sriya & Velu, Chander, 2006. "Real options and demographic decisions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 39-58, June.
    5. Peng Yu, 2006. "Higher Education, the Bane of Fertility? An investigation with the HILDA Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 512, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    6. Iyer, S. & Weeks, M., 2004. "Multiple Social Interaction and Reproductive Externalities: An Investigation of Fertility Behaviour in Kenya," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0461, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

  51. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 8718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    2. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
    3. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    5. Okumura, Tsunao & 奥村, 綱雄 & Usui, Emiko & 臼井, 恵美子, 2012. "The Effect of Pension Reform on Pension-Benefit Expectations and Savings Decisions in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 559, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October.
    8. Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario & Bottazzi, Renata, 2005. "Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Richard L. Johnson, 2002. "The puzzle of later male retirement," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q III), pages 5-26.
    10. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    11. Oxoby, Robert J. & Morrison, William G., 2010. "Loss Aversion and Intertemporal Choice: A Laboratory Investigation," IZA Discussion Papers 4854, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Frank Sloan & Lindsey Eldred & Tong Guo & Yanzhi Xu, 2013. "Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 93-127, August.
    13. Rainer Winkelmann, 2002. "Subjektive Daten in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung: Probleme und Perspektiven," SOI - Working Papers 0207, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Jul 2002.
    14. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2004. "On Expectations, Realizations and Partial Retirement," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-052/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. William G. Morrison & Robert J. Oxoby, 2013. "The endowment effect and intertemporal choice: a laboratory investigation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 689-704, May.
    16. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Douglas Hershey & Joy Jacobs-Lawson, 2012. "Bridging the Gap: Anticipated Shortfalls in Future Retirement Income," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 306-314, September.
    18. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Renata Bottazzi, 2003. "Retirement Expectations and Pension Reforms," CSEF Working Papers 92, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

  52. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Caliendo, Marco & Steiner, Viktor, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse (Active labour market policy in Germany * review ans assessment of the microeconomic evaluation results)," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 396-418.
    2. Caliendo, Marco & Hujer, Reinhard & Thomsen, Stephan L., 2005. "Identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the efficiency of job creation schemes in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 200508, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Caliendo, Marco & Steiner, Viktor, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse (Active labour market policy in Germany * review ans assessment of the microecono," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 396-418.
    4. Marco Caliendo & Viktor Steiner, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland: Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 515, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Armin Falk & Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweim�ller, "undated". "The Sucess of Job Applications: A New Approach to Program Evaluation," IEW - Working Papers 131, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.

  53. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 7580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Björn R H Blomqvist & Richard P Mann & David J T Sumpter, 2018. "Using Bayesian dynamical systems, model averaging and neural networks to determine interactions between socio-economic indicators," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Morey, Edward R. & Kritzberg, David, 2012. "It's not where you do it, it's who you do it with?," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 176-191.
    3. Ibanez, Marcela & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2010. "A survey-based choice experiment on coca cultivation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 249-263, November.
    4. John Cawley & Euna Han & Jiyoon Kim & Edward C. Norton, 2019. "Testing for family influences on obesity: The role of genetic nurture," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 937-952, July.
    5. Hammar, Henrik & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2001. "Smokers' Decisions To Quit Smoking," Working Papers in Economics 59, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2006. "Empirics of the Identification of Social Interactions; An Evaluation of the Approaches and Their Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 193-228, April.
    7. Claudia Senik & Thierry Verdier, 2011. "Segregation, entrepreneurship and work values: the case of France," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1207-1234, October.
    8. Dustmann, Christian & Mertz, Mikkel & Okatenko, Anna, 2023. "Neighbourhood Gangs, Crime Spillovers, and Teenage Motherhood," IZA Discussion Papers 16158, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Wang, Xinyu & Zhao, Yinyu & Xi, Zemiao, 2025. "Assessing the peer effects on willingness to pay for low-carbon food: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Stephen Gibbons & Olmo Silva & Felix Weinhardt, 2014. "Neighbourhood Turnover and Teenage Attainment," SERC Discussion Papers 0163, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Judith K. Hellerstein & David Neumark & Melissa McInerney, 2007. "Spatial Mismatch or Racial Mismatch?," NBER Working Papers 13161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ruomeng Cui & Dennis J. Zhang & Achal Bassamboo, 2019. "Learning from Inventory Availability Information: Evidence from Field Experiments on Amazon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1216-1235, March.
    13. Bucchianeri Grace Wong, 2010. "Is SARS a Poor Man's Disease? Socioeconomic Status and Risk Factors for SARS Transmission," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-31, July.
    14. Pieter A. Gautier & Arjen Siegmann & Aico van Vuuren, 2007. "The Effect of the Theo van Gogh Murder on House Prices in Amsterdam," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-013/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin, 2013. "Bowling alone, drinking together," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1635-1672, June.
    16. Schwesinger, Georg & Müller, Stephan & Lundan, Sarianna M., 2016. "Governance Structures, Cultural Distance, and Socialization Dynamics: Further Challenges for the Modern Corporation," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145907, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Zafar, Basit, 2011. "An experimental investigation of why individuals conform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 774-798, August.
    18. Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew & Gerber, Nicolas & Matz, Julia Anna, 2018. "Gendered Social Networks, Agricultural Innovations, and Farm Productivity in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 321-335.
    19. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2007. "Social Reinforcement: Cascades, Entrapment and Tipping," NBER Working Papers 13579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Zarnadze Giorgi, 2020. "Social interactions impact on product and service development," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 324-332, July.
    21. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2010. "New Housing Supply and the Dilution of Social Capital," SERC Discussion Papers 0042, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Chien Chi Chu & Xiu‐Fen Su & Yu‐En Lin & Akihiro Omura & Bin Li & Adrian Wai‐Kong Cheung, 2023. "Love thy neighbour: Evidence from capital structure decisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 2907-2933, September.
    23. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2017. "Is stock investment contagious among siblings?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1505-1528, June.
    24. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Maruyama, Eduardo & Viceisza, Angelino, 2010. "Breaking the norm: An empirical investigation into the unraveling of good behavior," IFPRI discussion papers 948, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    25. Andersson, Fredrik W. & Bokenblom, Mattias & Brantingson, Staffan & Brännström, Susanne Gullberg & Wall, Johan, 2011. "Sick listing—Partly a family phenomenon?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 496-502.
    26. Gibbons, Stephen & Overman, Henry G., 2012. "Mostly pointless spatial econometrics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43403, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Identification of binary choice models with social interactions," Working papers 2, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    28. Feng, Yao, 2011. "Local spillovers and learning from neighbors: Evidence from durable adoptions in rural China," MPRA Paper 33924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Chantarat, Sommarat & Barrett, Christopher B., 2007. "Social Network Capital, Economic Mobility and Poverty Traps," MPRA Paper 1947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Fishman, Arthur & Fishman, Ram & Gneezy, Uri, 2019. "A tale of two food stands: Observational learning in the field," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 101-108.
    31. Marini, Annalisa, 2016. "Immigrants, Trust and Social Traps," MPRA Paper 69627, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2016.
    32. Amrei Lahno & Marta Serra-Garcia, 2015. "Peer effects in risk taking: Envy or conformity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 73-95, February.
    33. Yang-Ming Chang, 2012. "Strategic transfers, redistributive fiscal policies, and family bonds: a micro-economic analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 1481-1502, October.
    34. Monga Célestin, 2017. "Working Paper 261 - Post-Macroeconomics: Some Theoretical and Analytical Issues," Working Paper Series 2372, African Development Bank.
    35. Thöni, Christian & Gächter, Simon, 2012. "Peer Effects and Social Preferences in Voluntary Cooperation," IZA Discussion Papers 6277, IZA Network @ LISER.
    36. Marie Lebreton & Katia Melnik, 2009. "Voluntary Participation as a Determinant of Social Capital in France : Allowing for Parameter Heterogeneity," Working Papers halshs-00410530, HAL.
    37. Xueling Bao & Fengwan Zhang & Shili Guo & Xin Deng & Jiahao Song & Dingde Xu, 2022. "Peer Effects on Farmers’ Purchases of Policy-Based Planting Farming Agricultural Insurance: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-18, June.
    38. Steven N. Durlauf & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2009. "Social Interactions," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0739, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    39. Fabio David Nieto, 2016. "Discriminación y diferenciales de salarios en el mercado laboral," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 115-134, January-J.
    40. Nyborg, Karine & Rege, Mari, 2003. "On social norms: the evolution of considerate smoking behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 323-340, November.
    41. Franz Hackl & Michael Hummer & Gerald Pruckner, 2013. "Old Boys’ Network in General Practitioner’s Referral Behavior," Economics working papers 2013-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    42. Font, Joan Costa & Fabbri, Daniele & Gil, Joan, 2010. "Decomposing cross-country differences in levels of obesity and overweight: Does the social environment matter?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(8), pages 1185-1193, April.
    43. Vegard Iversen & Kunal Sen & Arjan Verschoor & Amaresh Dubey, 2009. "Job recruitment networks and migration to cities in India," Discussion Papers 09-01, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    44. Martin Kahanec & Mariapia Mendola, 2007. "Social Determinants of Labor Market Status of Ethnic Minorities in Britain," Working Papers 125, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2007.
    45. Cartwright, Edward & Singh, Thomas B., 2018. "Observation and contagion effects in cooperation: An experimental investigation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 151-160.
    46. Bramoullé, Yann & Boucher, Vincent, 2020. "Binary Outcomes and Linear Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Mohammad Niaz Asadullah & Zaki Wahhaj, 2015. "Going to School in Purdah: Female Schooling, Mobility Norms and Madrasas in Bangladesh," Working Papers id:7756, eSocialSciences.
    48. Kremena Slavova & Andrea Fosfuri & Julio O. De Castro, 2016. "Learning by Hiring: The Effects of Scientists’ Inbound Mobility on Research Performance in Academia," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 72-89, February.
    49. Zackary B. Hawley, 2012. "Does Urban Density Promote Social Interaction? Evidence from Instrumental Variable Estimation," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(3), pages 223-248, Winter.
    50. Fang Li & Hongxu Ma & Suyan Shen, 2024. "Volunteering in China: How significant is the peer effect?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1848-1865, April.
    51. Axsen, Jonn, 2010. "Interpersonal Influence within Car Buyers’ Social Networks: Observing Consumer Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and the Spread of Pro-Societal Values," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8p32d18k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    52. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Greenwood, Jeremy & Guner, Nezih & Kopecky, Karen A., 2024. "The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic," IZA Discussion Papers 16709, IZA Network @ LISER.
    53. Semih Tumen & Tugba Zeydanli, 2014. "Social Interactions in Job Satisfaction," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 378, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    54. Benjamin Monnery, 2013. "The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data," Working Papers 1320, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    55. Xiaogeng Xu & Satu Metsälampi & Michael Kirchler & Kaisa Kotakorpi & Peter Hans Matthews & Topi Miettinen, 2023. "Which income comparisons matter to people, and how? Evidence from a large field experiment," Working Papers 10, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    56. Julie Rosaz & Robert Slonim & Marie Claire Villeval, 2015. "Quitting and Peer Effects at Work," Working Papers halshs-00684812, HAL.
    57. Andrew E. Clark & Nicolai Kristensen & Niels Westergård-Nielsen, 2007. "Job satisfaction and co-worker wages: Status or signal?," Working Papers halshs-00587878, HAL.
    58. Landsman, Vardit & Nitzan, Irit, 2020. "Cross-decision social effects in product adoption and defection decisions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 213-235.
    59. Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew, 2016. "Social Interactions and Aspirations Formation in Rural Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 250150, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    60. Di, Wenhua & Su, Yichen, 2024. "Conspicuous consumption: Vehicle purchases by non-prime consumers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 895-914.
    61. Michael A. Boozer & Stephen E. Cacciola, 2001. "Inside the 'Black Box' of Project STAR: Estimation of Peer Effects Using Experimental Data," Working Papers 832, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    62. Park, Youngkyun & Banerjee, Sudipto, 2020. "Coworker influence on annuitization decisions: Evidence from defined benefit plans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 582-606.
    63. Mariana Lopes da Fonseca, 2017. "Tax Mimicking in Local Business Taxation: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Portugal," CESifo Working Paper Series 6647, CESifo.
    64. Andreia Tolciu, 2010. "The Economics of Social Interactions: An Interdisciplinary Ground for Social Scientists?," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 223-242, October.
    65. Quitterie Roquebert & Roméo Fontaine & Agnès Gramain, 2016. "L'aide à un parent âgé, seul et dépendant : déterminants structurels et interactions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01316903, HAL.
    66. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2019. "The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences: Evidence from Germany," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2019, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    67. Xiaozhen Pan & Gengxi Xu & Nina Zhu, 2022. "Spatial Peer Effect of Enterprises’ Digital Transformation: Empirical Evidence from Spatial Autoregressive Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    68. Dufhues, Thomas & Buchenrieder, Gertrud & Fischer, Isabel, 2006. "Social Capital And Rural Development: Literature Review And Current State Of The Art," IAMO Discussion Papers 92017, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    69. Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales & Luigi Guiso, 2006. "Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?," NBER Working Papers 11999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    70. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Onur Sapci, 2022. "The long‐term health effects of initiating smoking in adolescence: Evidence from a national longitudinal survey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 597-613, April.
    71. Almudena Sevilla-Sanz & Jose Ignacio Gimenez & Jose Alberto Molina, 2007. "Household Division of Labor, Partnerships and Children: Evidence from Europe," Economics Series Working Papers 333, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    72. Bruno S. Frey & Alois Stutzer, 2006. "Environmental Morale and Motivation," IEW - Working Papers 288, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    73. Moldovan, Sarit & Muller, Eitan & Richter, Yossi & Yom-Tov, Elad, 2017. "Opinion leadership in small groups," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 536-552.
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    799. Mark J. Browne & Annette Hofmann & Andreas Richter & Sophie-Madeleine Roth & Petra Steinorth, 2021. "Peer effects in risk preferences: Evidence from Germany," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1129-1163, April.
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  54. Philip Cross & Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Regressions, Short and Long," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0385, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Cheti Nicoletti, 2010. "Poverty analysis with missing data: alternative estimators compared," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Romuald Meango & Marc Henry & Ismael Mourifie, 2025. "Combining stated and revealed preferences," Papers 2507.13552, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    3. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2025. "Linear Regressions with Combined Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 12270, CESifo.
    4. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    5. Galichon, Alfred & Henry, Marc, 2009. "A test of non-identifying restrictions and confidence regions for partially identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 186-196, October.
    6. Peter Sandholt Jensen & Allan H. Würtz, 2006. "On determining the importance of a regressor with small and undersized samples," Economics Working Papers 2006-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Alfred Galichon & Marc Henry, 2026. "An econometrician's guide to optimal transport," Papers 2604.04227, arXiv.org.
    8. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2019. "Identifying the effect of persuasion," CeMMAP working papers CWP69/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Pacini, David, 2024. "Measuring labor market transitions with time series of cross sections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    10. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Timothy G. Conley & Giorgio Topa, 2003. "Identification of local interaction models with imperfect location data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 605-618.
    12. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 11-21, July.
    13. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Gaillac, Christophe & Maurel, Arnaud, 2025. "Linear Regressions with Combined Data," IZA Discussion Papers 18276, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Molinari, Francesca & Peski, Marcin, 2005. "Generalization of a Result on "Regression, Short and Long"," Working Papers 05-09, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    15. Sarah Moon, 2024. "Partial Identification of Individual-Level Parameters Using Aggregate Data in a Nonparametric Model," Papers 2403.07236, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    16. Nathan Kallus, 2022. "What's the Harm? Sharp Bounds on the Fraction Negatively Affected by Treatment," Papers 2205.10327, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    17. Matthew Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2016. "Partial independence in nonseparable models," CeMMAP working papers CWP26/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Obradović, Filip, 2024. "Measuring diagnostic test performance using imperfect reference tests: A partial identification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    19. Fan, Yanqin & Shi, Xuetao & Tao, Jing, 2023. "Partial identification and inference in moment models with incomplete data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 418-443.
    20. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    21. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," Papers 2501.02318, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    22. Yanqin Fan & Carlos A. Manzanares, 2017. "Partial identification of average treatment effects on the treated through difference-in-differences," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 1057-1080, October.
    23. Mullin, Charles H., 2006. "Identification and estimation with contaminated data: When do covariate data sharpen inference?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 253-272, February.
    24. Thomas F. Crossley & Peter Levell & Stavros Poupakis, 2022. "Regression with an imputed dependent variable," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1277-1294, November.
    25. Bontemps, Christian & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Meddahi, Nour, 2025. "Functional ecological inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    26. Komarova, Tatiana & Nekipelov, Denis & Yakovlev, Evgeny, 2018. "Identification, data combination and the risk of disclosure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 79384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2017. "Identification of Treatment Effects under Conditional Partial Independence," Papers 1707.09563, arXiv.org.
    28. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.

  55. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Adrian Chadi & Lazlo Goerke, 2023. "Seeking Shelter in Times of Crisis? Unemployment, Perceived Job Insecurity and Trade Union Membership," IAAEU Discussion Papers 202302, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    3. Barceló, Cristina & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2016. "The response of household wealth to the risk of job loss: Evidence from differences in severance payments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 35-54.
    4. Federica Origo & Laura Pagani, 2008. "Flexicurity and Workers Well-Being in Europe: Is Temporary Employment Always Bad?," Working Papers 141, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2008.
    5. Gizem Koşar & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Staff Reports 1056, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Kettlewell, Nathan, 2020. "Subjective Expectations for Health Service Use and Consequences for Health Insurance Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 13445, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Petri Böckerman, 2004. "Perception of Job Instability in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 283-314, July.
    8. Geishecker, Ingo & Riedl, Maximilian & Frijters, Paul, 2012. "Offshoring and job loss fears: An econometric analysis of individual perceptions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 738-747.
    9. Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2018. "The risk of job loss, household formation and housing demand: evidence from differences in severance payments," Working Papers 1849, Banco de España.
    10. Seamus McGuinness & Mark Wooden & Markus Hahn, 2014. "The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 329-347, July.
    11. Sascha O. Becker & Samuel Bentolila & Ana Fernandes & Andrea Ichino, 2004. "Job Insecurity and Children's Emancipation," Working Papers wp2004_0404, CEMFI.
    12. Chiara Binelli, 2019. "Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 201-231, August.
    13. Raven S. Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2022. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 056, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Masanori Kuroki, 2012. "The Deregulation of Temporary Employment and Workers' Perceptions of Job Insecurity," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(3), pages 560-577, July.
    15. Geishecker, Ingo, 2009. "Perceived job insecurity and well-being revisited: Towards conceptual clarity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 90, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Sonja G. Schatz, 2014. "Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 697, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    17. Sarah Goldman & Shouyi Zhang, 2022. "Quantitative Easing, Households' Savings and Growth: A Luxembourgish Case Study," Post-Print hal-04080189, HAL.
    18. Gabrielle Penrose & Gianni La Cava, 2021. "Job Loss, Subjective Expectations and Household Spending," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Pierre Brochu & Louis-Philippe Morin, 2012. "Union Membership and Perceived Job Insecurity: Thirty Years of Evidence from the American General Social Survey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(2), pages 263-285, April.
    20. Schwiebert, Jörg, 2016. "A Sample Selection Model for Fractional Response Variables," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145527, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Vladimir Gimpelson & Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2012. "Does More Unemployment Cause More Fear of Unemployment?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 13/EC/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    22. Verena Dill & Uwe Jirjahn, 2014. "Foreign Owners and Perceived Job Insecurity in Germany: Evidence from Linked Employer-Employee Data," Research Papers in Economics 2014-09, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    23. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 489-522, April.
    24. Francisco Maeso & Ildefonso Mendez, 2008. "The Role of Partnership Status and Expectations on the Emancipation Behaviour of Spanish Graduates," Working Papers wp2008_0812, CEMFI.
    25. Browning, Martin & Crossley, Thomas F., 2008. "The long-run cost of job loss as measured by consumption changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 109-120, July.
    26. Sascha Becker & Samuel Bentolila & Ana Fernandes & Andrea Ichino, 2010. "Youth emancipation and perceived job insecurity of parents and children," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(3), pages 1047-1071, June.
    27. Clark, Andrew & Postel-Vinay, Fabien, 2005. "Job security and job protection," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19904, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Dias da Silva, António & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2025. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations—New evidence for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    29. Origo, Federica & Pagani, Laura, 2009. "Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 547-555, October.
    30. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2010. "Perceptions of economic insecurity: Evidence from Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 357-385, December.
    31. Carson, Richard T. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 2006. "Contingent Valuation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 821-936, Elsevier.
    32. McGuinness, Seamus & Wooden, Mark & Hahn, Markus, 2012. "Job Insecurity and Future Labour Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 6764, IZA Network @ LISER.
    33. Peter Levell & Barra Roantree & Jonathan Shaw, 2015. "Redistribution from a lifetime perspective," IFS Working Papers W15/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    34. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    35. Gibbons, Stephen & Silva, Olmo, 2011. "School quality, child wellbeing and parents' satisfaction," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 312-331, April.
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    40. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2008. "How do workers fare during transition? Perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers, 1995-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 442-458, June.
    41. Geishecker, Ingo, 2012. "Simultaneity bias in the analysis of perceived job insecurity and subjective well-being," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 319-321.
    42. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Identification and estimation of statistical functionals using incomplete data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 445-459, June.
    43. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
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  56. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    2. Dehejia, Rajeev H., 2005. "Program evaluation as a decision problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 141-173.

  57. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 1998. "Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," NBER Technical Working Papers 0224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Denis Chetverikov & Daniel Wilhelm, 2017. "Nonparametric instrumental variable estimation under monotonicity," CeMMAP working papers 14/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Jiang Zhichao & Chiba Yasutaka & VanderWeele Tyler J., 2014. "Monotone Confounding, Monotone Treatment Selection and Monotone Treatment Response," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-12, March.
    3. C, Loran & Eckbo, Espen & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2014. "Does Executive Compensation Reflect Default Risk?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/11, University of Stavanger.
    4. Ismael Mourifie & Marc Henry & Romuald Meango, 2017. "Sharp bounds and testability of a Roy model of STEM major choices," Papers 1709.09284, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    5. Menzel, Konrad, 2014. "Consistent estimation with many moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 329-350.
    6. Nguezet, Paul Martin Dontsop & Diagne, Aliou & Okoruwa, Victor Olusegun & Ojehomon, Vivian, 2011. "Impact of Improved Rice Technology (NERICA varieties) on Income and Poverty among Rice Farming Households in Nigeria: A Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 50(3), pages 1-25.
    7. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2004. "A Structural Analysis of the Correlated Random Coefficient Wage Regression Model," Working Papers 0405, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Identification of binary choice models with social interactions," Working papers 2, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    9. Liu, Ding & Millimet, Daniel L., 2020. "Bounding the Joint Distribution of Disability and Employment with Contaminated Data," IZA Discussion Papers 13020, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Li, Hao & Millimet, Daniel L. & Roychowdhury, Punarjit, 2019. "Measuring Economic Mobility in India Using Noisy Data: A Partial Identification Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 12505, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Missing Treatments," Working Papers 05-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    13. Ruth Miquel, 2002. "Identification of Dynamic Treatment Effects by Instrumental Variables," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    14. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2022. "Choosing Exogeneity Assumptions in Potential Outcome Models," Papers 2205.02288, arXiv.org.
    15. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Kyungchui (Kevin) Song & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2014. "Testing for a general class of functional inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    20. Vira Semenova, 2023. "Debiased Machine Learning of Aggregated Intersection Bounds and Other Causal Parameters," Papers 2303.00982, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    21. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2015. "How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," NBER Working Papers 21701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Stefan Boes, 2013. "Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 81-109, February.
    23. Chalak, Karim & Kim, Daniel & Miller, Megan & Pepper, John, 2022. "Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
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    34. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2025. "A test for instrumental variable validity using a correlation restriction," Monash Economics Working Papers 2025-06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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    38. Denni Tommasi & Lina Zhang, 2020. "Bounding Program Benefits When Participation is Misreported," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    39. Ity Shurtz & Alon Eizenberg & Adi Alkalay & Amnon Lahad, 2022. "Physician workload and treatment choice: the case of primary care," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(4), pages 763-791, December.
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    41. Erich Battistin & Michele De Nadai & Daniela Vuri, 2014. "Counting Rotten Apples: Student Achievement and Score Manipulation in Italian Elementary Schools," CEIS Research Paper 329, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Sep 2014.
    42. Freyberger, Joachim & Horowitz, Joel L., 2015. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 41-53.
    43. Mourifié, Ismael & Wan, Yuanyuan, 2025. "Layered policy analysis in program evaluation using the marginal treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    44. Daniel Kaliski, 2023. "Identifying the impact of health insurance on subgroups with changing rates of diagnosis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 2098-2112, September.
    45. Ridder, Geert & Vikström, Johan, 2011. "Bounds on treatment effects on transitions," Working Paper Series 2011:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    46. Kate Ho & Adam Rosen, 2015. "Partial identification in applied research: benefits and challenges," CeMMAP working papers 64/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    47. Giorgio Brunello & Dimitris Christelis & Anna Sanz‐de‐Galdeano & Anastasia Terskaya, 2024. "Does college selectivity reduce obesity? A partial identification approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 2306-2320, October.
    48. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    49. Monique De Haan & Ragnhild C. Schreiner, 2018. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Welfare Dependency," CESifo Working Paper Series 7140, CESifo.
    50. Kyunghoon Ban & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2021. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects with Imperfect Instruments," Papers 2109.14785, arXiv.org.
    51. Millimet, Daniel L. & Roy, Jayjit, 2015. "Multilateral environmental agreements and the WTO," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 20-23.
    52. Lixiong Li & D'esir'e K'edagni & Ismael Mourifi'e, 2020. "Discordant Relaxations of Misspecified Models," Papers 2012.11679, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    53. German Blanco & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2013. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects of Job Corps Training on Wages," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 659-701.
    54. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    55. Henry, Marc & Méango, Romuald & Mourifié, Ismaël, 2024. "Role models and revealed gender-specific costs of STEM in an extended Roy model of major choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    56. Aviv Nevo & Adam M. Rosen, 2008. "Identification with Imperfect Instruments," NBER Working Papers 14434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Richey, Jeremiah, 2015. "Shackled labor markets: Bounding the causal effects of criminal convictions in the U.S," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-24.
    58. Jiaying Gu & Thomas M. Russell, 2021. "Partial Identification in Nonseparable Binary Response Models with Endogenous Regressors," Papers 2101.01254, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
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    60. Didier Nibbering & Matthijs Oosterveen, 2023. "Instrument-based estimation of full treatment effects with movers," Papers 2306.07018, arXiv.org.
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    62. Libertad González, 2005. "Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 771-795.
    63. Zach Flynn, 2020. "Identifying productivity when it is a factor of production," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(2), pages 496-530, June.
    64. Ackerberg, Daniel A. & Frazer, Garth & Kim, Kyoo il & Luo, Yao & Su, Yingjun, 2023. "Under-identification of structural models based on timing and information set assumptions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    65. de Haan, Monique & Leuven, Edwin, 2016. "Head Start and the Distribution of Long Term Education and Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 9915, IZA Network @ LISER.
    66. Sullivan, Paul, 2006. "A Dynamic Analysis of Educational Attainment, Occupational Choices, and Job Search," MPRA Paper 861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Stenberg, Anders & Westerlund, Olle, 2015. "Flexibility at a Cost: Should Governments Stimulate Tertiary Education for Adults?," IZA Discussion Papers 9047, IZA Network @ LISER.
    68. Lorenzo Almada & Ian M. McCarthy & Rusty Tchernis, 2015. "What Can We Learn About the Effects of Food Stamps on Obesity in the Presence of Misreporting?," NBER Working Papers 21596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Brent Kreider & Richard J. Manski & John Moeller & John Pepper, 2015. "The Effect of Dental Insurance on the Use of Dental Care for Older Adults: A Partial Identification Analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 840-858, July.
    70. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
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    72. Chi, Wei & Li, Bo, 2014. "Trends in China’s gender employment and pay gap: Estimating gender pay gaps with employment selection," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 708-725.
    73. Andrew Chesher & Adam Rosen, 2019. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models, Methods, and Applications," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    74. Shriver, Scott K. & Nair, Harikesh S. & Hofstetter, Reto, 2011. "Social Ties and User-Generated Content: Evidence from an Online Social Network," Research Papers 2083, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    75. Filip Obradovi'c, 2022. "Measuring Diagnostic Test Performance Using Imperfect Reference Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2204.00180, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    76. Nicolas Fleury & Fabrice Gilles, 2018. "The intergenerational transmission of education. A meta-regression analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 557-573, November.
    77. Jay Bhattacharya & Adam Isen, 2008. "On Inferring Demand for Health Care in the Presence of Anchoring, Acquiescence, and Selection Biases," NBER Working Papers 13865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    78. Joachim Freyberger & Joel L. Horowitz, 2012. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    83. Charles F. Manski & John Newman & John V. Pepper, 2002. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 26(4), pages 355-381, August.
    84. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2007. "Disability and Employment: Reevaluating the Evidence in Light of Reporting Errors," ISU General Staff Papers 200706010700001258, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    85. Demuynck, Thomas, 2015. "Bounding average treatment effects: A linear programming approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 75-77.
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    89. Peckham, Janet G. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., "undated". "Are National School Lunch Program Participants More Likely to be Obese? Dealing with Identification," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124905, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    90. Daniel O. Scharfstein & Charles F. Manski & James C. Anthony, 2004. "On the Construction of Bounds in Prospective Studies with Missing Ordinal Outcomes: Application to the Good Behavior Game Trial," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 154-164, March.
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    93. Punarjit Roychowdhury & Gaurav Dhamija, 2022. "Don't cross the line: Bounding the causal effect of hypergamy violation on domestic violence in India," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1952-1978, October.
    94. Christelis, Dimitris & Messina, Julián, 2019. "Partial Identification of Population Average and Quantile Treatment Effects in Observational Data under Sample Selection," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9520, Inter-American Development Bank.
    95. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2019. "Identifying the effect of persuasion," CeMMAP working papers CWP69/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    117. Vikström, Johan & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2011. "The Relative Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence From a Social Experiment and Non-Parametric Methods," Working Papers 11-4, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
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    278. Millimet, Daniel L. & Roy, Manan, 2013. "Partial Identification of the Long-Run Causal Effect of Food Security on Child Health," IZA Discussion Papers 7457, IZA Network @ LISER.
    279. Chiburis, Richard C., 2010. "Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 267-275, December.
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    282. Fan Yang & Dylan S. Small, 2016. "Using post-outcome measurement information in censoring-by-death problems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(1), pages 299-318, January.
    283. Craig Gundersen & Brent Kreider & John Pepper & Valerie Tarasuk, 2017. "Food assistance programs and food insecurity: implications for Canada in light of the mixing problem," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1065-1087, May.
    284. Daniel Cerquera & François Laisney & Hannes Ullrich, 2014. "A Note on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1419, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    285. Fan, Yanqin & Park, Sang Soo, 2014. "Nonparametric inference for counterfactual means: Bias-correction, confidence sets, and weak IV," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 45-56.
    286. Astrid Kiil & Jacob Nielsen Arendt, 2017. "The effect of complementary private health insurance on the use of health care services," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-27, March.
    287. Seung Jin Cho, 2022. "The effect of aging out of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program on food insecurity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 664-685, April.
    288. Belzil, Christian & Hansen, Jörgen, 2005. "A Structural Analysis of the Correlated Random Coefficient Wage Regression Model with an Application to the OLS-IV Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 1585, IZA Network @ LISER.
    289. Wayne Yuan Gao & Rui Wang, 2023. "IV Regressions without Exclusion Restrictions," Papers 2304.00626, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    290. Sun, Zhenting & Wüthrich, Kaspar, 2025. "Pairwise valid instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    291. Richard A Dunn, 2012. "Consistently bounding parameter values with one instrument and two endogenous explanatory variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1074-1081.
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    293. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2018. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Papers 1812.11598, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    294. Amin, Vikesh & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Parisian, Daniel J., 2016. "The effect of degree attainment on arrests: Evidence from a randomized social experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 259-273.
    295. Choudhury, Sanchari, 2019. "WTO membership and corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    296. Das, Tirthatanmoy & Polachek, Solomon, 2022. "The Econometrics of Antidotal Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 15558, IZA Network @ LISER.
    297. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V. & Gundersen, Craig & Jolliffe, Dean, 2012. "Identifying the Effects of SNAP (Food Stamps) on Child Health Outcomes When Participation is Endogenous and Misreported," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13124, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    298. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
    299. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    300. Deockhyun Ryu & Changhui Kang, 2013. "Do Private Tutoring Expenditures Raise Academic Performance? Evidence from Middle School Students in South Korea," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 59-83, March.
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    303. Chen Xu, 2025. "Return to English Skills in China: Using a Nonparametric Bounding Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 403-435, June.
    304. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2005. "Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 376-424, April.

  58. Horowitz, Joel & Manski, Charles, 1997. "Nonparametric Analysis of Randomized Experiments With Missing Covariate and Outcome Data," Working Papers 97-16, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David S. Lee, 2002. "Trimming for Bounds on Treatment Effects with Missing Outcomes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Hirsch, Barry, 2005. "Match Bias from Earnings Imputation in the Current Population Survey: The Case of Imperfect Matching," IZA Discussion Papers 1846, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Lee & Myoung-jae, 2004. "Monotonicity Conditions and Inequality Imputation for Sample Selection and Non-Response Problems," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 93, Econometric Society.
    5. Wilke, Ralf A. & Lo, Simon M. S. & Arntz, Melanie, 2007. "Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Arthur Lewbel, 2004. "Estimation of Average Treatment Effects With Misclassification," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 210, Econometric Society.
    7. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2006. "Asymptotic properties for a class of partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Adam Rosen, 2006. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Erich Battistin & Barbara Sianesi, 2006. "Misreported schooling and returns to education: evidence from the UK," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert P. Sherman & Jeff Dominitz, 2006. "Identification and estimation of bounds on school performance measures: a nonparametric analysis of a mixture model with verification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1295-1326.
    12. Govert Bijwaard & Geert Ridder, 1998. "Correcting for Selective Compliance in a Re-employment Bonus Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-096/4, Tinbergen Institute.

  59. Manski, C.F., 1996. "Treatment Under Amibiguity," Working papers 9619r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Woodward, Richard T., 1998. "Should Agricultural And Resource Economists Care That The Subjective Expected Utility Hypothesis Is False?," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20941, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

  60. Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Identification of Anonymous Endogenous Interactions," Working Papers 96-04-019, Santa Fe Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Carla Sá & Raymond Florax & Piet Rietveld, 2007. "Living-arrangement and university decisions of Dutch young adults," NIPE Working Papers 14/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Bernard Fortin & Nadia Joubert & Guy Lacroix, 2002. "Fiscalité, effets de voisinage et offre de travail au noir," Post-Print halshs-00178184, HAL.

  61. Manski, C.F., 1996. "Monotone Treatment Response," Working papers 9604, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

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    1. C, Loran & Eckbo, Espen & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2014. "Does Executive Compensation Reflect Default Risk?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/11, University of Stavanger.
    2. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Identification of binary choice models with social interactions," Working papers 2, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Santiago Acerenza & Otávio Bartalotti & Désiré Kédagni, 2023. "Testing identifying assumptions in bivariate probit models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 407-422, April.
    4. Gu, Jiaying & Russell, Thomas M., 2023. "Partial identification in nonseparable binary response models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 528-562.
    5. Vira Semenova, 2023. "Debiased Machine Learning of Aggregated Intersection Bounds and Other Causal Parameters," Papers 2303.00982, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    6. Han, Sukjin & Yang, Shenshen, 2024. "A computational approach to identification of treatment effects for policy evaluation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    7. Mogstad, Magne & Torgovitsky, Alexander, 2024. "Instrumental variables with unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    8. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2020. "Causal Inference under Outcome-Based Sampling with Monotonicity Assumptions," Papers 2004.08318, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    9. Huber, Martin & Mellace, Giovanni, 2011. "Sharp bounds on causal effects under sample selection," Economics Working Paper Series 1134, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    10. Paul Poast, 2013. "Issue linkage and international cooperation: An empirical investigation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 286-303, July.
    11. Jiannan Lu & Peng Ding & Tirthankar Dasgupta, 2018. "Treatment Effects on Ordinal Outcomes: Causal Estimands and Sharp Bounds," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 43(5), pages 540-567, October.
    12. Germinario, Giuseppe & Amin, Vikesh & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2022. "What can we learn about the effect of mental health on labor market outcomes under weak assumptions? Evidence from the NLSY79," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Okumura, Tsunao, 2011. "Nonparametric Estimation of Labor Supply and Demand Factors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 174-185.
    14. Callaway, Brantly, 2021. "Bounds on distributional treatment effect parameters using panel data with an application on job displacement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 861-881.
    15. Amin, Vikesh & Behrman, Jere R. & Fletcher, Jason M. & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2022. "Does Schooling Improve Cognitive Abilities at Older Ages? Causal Evidence from Nonparametric Bounds," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1114, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Ridder, Geert & Vikström, Johan, 2011. "Bounds on treatment effects on transitions," Working Paper Series 2011:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    17. Clément de Chaisemartin, 2012. "Fuzzy differences in differences," Working Papers halshs-00671368, HAL.
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    19. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    20. Kyunghoon Ban & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2021. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects with Imperfect Instruments," Papers 2109.14785, arXiv.org.
    21. Mullahy, John, 2024. "Analyzing health outcomes measured as bounded counts," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    22. Alberto Abadie, 2000. "Semiparametric Estimation of Instrumental Variable Models for Causal Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Eduardo Fé, 2021. "Pension eligibility rules and the local causal effect of retirement on cognitive functioning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 812-841, July.
    24. Richey, Jeremiah, 2015. "Shackled labor markets: Bounding the causal effects of criminal convictions in the U.S," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-24.
    25. Jiaying Gu & Thomas M. Russell, 2021. "Partial Identification in Nonseparable Binary Response Models with Endogenous Regressors," Papers 2101.01254, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    26. Lafférs, Lukáš & Nedela, Roman, 2017. "Sensitivity of the bounds on the ATE in the presence of sample selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 84-87.
    27. Lukáš Lafférs, 2019. "Bounding average treatment effects using linear programming," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 727-767, September.
    28. Didier Nibbering & Matthijs Oosterveen, 2023. "Instrument-based estimation of full treatment effects with movers," Papers 2306.07018, arXiv.org.
    29. Libertad González, 2005. "Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 771-795.
    30. de Haan, Monique & Leuven, Edwin, 2016. "Head Start and the Distribution of Long Term Education and Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 9915, IZA Network @ LISER.
    31. Brent Kreider & Richard J. Manski & John Moeller & John Pepper, 2015. "The Effect of Dental Insurance on the Use of Dental Care for Older Adults: A Partial Identification Analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 840-858, July.
    32. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    33. Shriver, Scott K. & Nair, Harikesh S. & Hofstetter, Reto, 2011. "Social Ties and User-Generated Content: Evidence from an Online Social Network," Research Papers 2083, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    34. Balat, Jorge F. & Han, Sukjin, 2023. "Multiple treatments with strategic substitutes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 732-757.
    35. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Kühnle, Daniel & Oberfichtner, Michael, 2017. "Bounding the Causal Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health: Nonparametric Evidence from Four Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 10652, IZA Network @ LISER.
    36. Charles F. Manski & John Newman & John V. Pepper, 2002. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 26(4), pages 355-381, August.
    37. Demuynck, Thomas, 2015. "Bounding average treatment effects: A linear programming approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 75-77.
    38. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2019. "Identifying the effect of persuasion," CeMMAP working papers CWP69/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    39. Brent Kreider & John V. Pepper & Manan Roy, 2016. "Identifying the Effects of WIC on Food Insecurity Among Infants and Children," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1106-1122, April.
    40. Helen H. Jensen & Brent Kreider & Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy, 2019. "Investigating Treatment Effects of Participating Jointly in SNAP and WIC when the Treatment is Validated Only for SNAP," NBER Working Papers 25587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Jeremiah Richey, 2016. "An Odd Couple: Monotone Instrumental Variables and Binary Treatments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 1099-1110, June.
    42. Stephen L. Morgan, 2004. "Methodologist as Arbitrator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(1), pages 3-53, August.
    43. Chen, Xuan & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2017. "Going beyond LATE: Bounding Average Treatment Effects of Job Corps Training," GLO Discussion Paper Series 93, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    44. Monique de Haan, 2008. "The Effect of Parents' Schooling on Child's Schooling: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-061/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    45. Sianesi, Barbara, 2017. "Evidence of randomisation bias in a large-scale social experiment: The case of ERA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 41-64.
    46. Grafova, Irina B. & Freedman, Vicki A. & Lurie, Nicole & Kumar, Rizie & Rogowski, Jeannette, 2014. "The difference-in-difference method: Assessing the selection bias in the effects of neighborhood environment on health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 20-33.
    47. Marco Stenborg Petterson & David Seim & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2023. "Bounds on a Slope from Size Restrictions on Economic Shocks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 552-572, August.
    48. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V. & Roy, Manan, 2018. "Does the Women, Infants, and Children Program (WIC) Improve Infant Health Outcomes?," ISU General Staff Papers 201805010700001055, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    49. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    50. Monique De Haan & Magnus Stubhaug, 2024. "The Causal Component in the Intergenerational Transmission of Income," CESifo Working Paper Series 11395, CESifo.
    51. Arthur Lewbel, 2004. "Estimation of Average Treatment Effects With Misclassification," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 210, Econometric Society.
    52. Michael Lechner & Blaise Melly, 2010. "Partial Idendification of Wage Effects of Training Programs," Working Papers 2010-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    53. Chen, Yuyu & Lin, Liyuan & Wang, Ruodu, 2022. "Risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty and an order constraint," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 169-187.
    54. Kedagni, Desire, 2021. "Identifying treatment effects in the presence of confounded types," ISU General Staff Papers 202106050700001056, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    55. Sungwon Lee, 2021. "Partial Identification and Inference for Conditional Distributions of Treatment Effects," Papers 2108.00723, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    56. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Ralf A. Wilke Wilke, 2005. "Reform of unemployment compensation in Germany: a nonparametric bounds analysis using register data," CeMMAP working papers CWP02/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    57. Firpo, Sergio & Ridder, Geert, 2019. "Partial identification of the treatment effect distribution and its functionals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 210-234.
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    61. Martine Mariotti & Juergen Meinecke, 2009. "Nonparametric Bounds on Returns to Education in South Africa: Overcoming Ability and Selection Bias," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2009-510, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    62. Lechner, Michael & Melly, Blaise, 2007. "Earnings Effects of Training Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 6400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    63. Cherchye, Laurens & Demuynck, Thomas & Rock, Bram De, 2019. "Bounding counterfactual demand with unobserved heterogeneity and endogenous expenditures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 483-506.
    64. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2001. "Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Riccardo D'Adamo, 2021. "Orthogonal Policy Learning Under Ambiguity," Papers 2111.10904, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    66. Joshua Angrist & Eric Bettinger & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Long-Term Educational Consequences of Secondary School Vouchers: Evidence from Administrative Records in Colombia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 847-862, June.
    67. Stefan Boes, 2010. "Convex Treatment Response and Treatment Selection," SOI - Working Papers 1001, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    68. Chaoran Chen & Zhigang Feng & Jiaying Gu, 2022. "Health, Health Insurance, and Inequality," Working Papers tecipa-730, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    69. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 11-21, July.
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    75. Matthew D. Baird & Jonathan Cantor & Wendy M. Troxel & Tamara Dubowitz, 2022. "Job loss and psychological distress during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Longitudinal Analysis from residents in nine predominantly African American low‐income neighborhoods," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1844-1861, September.
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    101. Brent Kreider & John V. Pepper & Manan Roy, 2020. "Does The Women, Infants, And Children Program Improve Infant Health Outcomes?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1731-1756, October.
    102. Sungwon Lee, 2020. "Identification and Confidence Regions for Treatment Effect and its Distribution under Stochastic Dominance," Working Papers 2011, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    103. Taguri Masataka & Chiba Yasutaka, 2012. "Instruments and Bounds for Causal Effects under the Monotonic Selection Assumption," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, August.
    104. Qian, Hang, 2011. "Bayesian inference with monotone instrumental variables," MPRA Paper 32672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. Amanda E. Kowalski, 2018. "Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines," NBER Working Papers 25049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    106. Lafférs, Lukáš, 2013. "A note on bounding average treatment effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 424-428.
    107. Grant, Charles & Padula, Mario, 2013. "Using bounds to investigate household debt repayment behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 336-354.
    108. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    109. Kamat, Vishal, 2024. "Identifying the effects of a program offer with an application to Head Start," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    110. Mate Kormos & Robert P. Lieli & Martin Huber, 2023. "Interacting Treatments with Endogenous Takeup," Papers 2301.04876, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    111. Jeffry Jacob & Abdul Munasib, 2020. "Do social networks promote homeownership?," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 189-230, June.
    112. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," NBER Working Papers 11848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    113. Schleicher, Michael & Klonner, Stefan & Sauerborn, Rainer & Sié, Alie & Souares, Aurélia, 2018. "The Demand for Health Insurance in a Poor Economy: Evidence from Burkina Faso," Working Papers 0648, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    114. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2020. "Causal inference in case-control studies," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    115. Vikström, Johan & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2013. "The effectiveness of active labor market policies: Evidence from a social experiment using non-parametric bounds," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 58-67.
    116. Jensen, Helen H. & Kreider, Brent E. & Pepper, John V. & Zhylyevskyy, Oleksandr & Greder, Kimberly A., 2023. "Causal effects of mental health on food security," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    117. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2022. "Average Adjusted Association: Efficient Estimation with High Dimensional Confounders," Papers 2205.14048, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    118. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics," NBER Working Papers 20432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    119. Gundersen, Craig & Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2009. "The Impact of the National School Lunch Program on Child Health: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13148, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    120. Ian K. McDonough & Constant I. Tra, 2017. "The impact of computer-based tutorials on high school math proficiency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1041-1063, May.
    121. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    122. Anders Holm & Mads Meier Jæger, 2009. "Selection Bias in Educational Transition Models: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CAM Working Papers 2009-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    123. John V. Pepper, 1998. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data: General Issues and Application to a Higher Education Block Grant Program," Virginia Economics Online Papers 312, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
    124. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    125. Chalak, Karim, 2024. "Nonparametric Gini-Frisch bounds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    126. Vikesh Amin & Jere R. Behrman & Jason M. Fletcher & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Iliana Kohler & Hans-Peter Kohler & Shana D. Stites, 2025. "Causal Effects of Schooling on Memory at Older Ages in Six Low-and-Middle-Income Countries: Nonparametric Evidence with Harmonized Datasets," Upjohn Working Papers 25-418, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    127. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2009. "Adoption Curves and Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    128. Jorge Balat & Sukjin Han, 2018. "Multiple Treatments with Strategic Interaction," Papers 1805.08275, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    129. Hollenbach, Johannes & Schmitz, Hendrik & Westphal, Matthias, 2024. "Gene-environment interactions with essential heterogeneity," Ruhr Economic Papers 1105, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    130. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Methorst, Joel & Thum, Marcel, 2025. "Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    131. Christelis, Dimitris & Dobrescu, Loretti I., 2020. "The causal effect of social activities on cognition: Evidence from 20 European countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    132. Michael Gerfin & Martin Schellhorn, 2006. "Nonparametric bounds on the effect of deductibles in health care insurance on doctor visits – Swiss evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1011-1020, September.
    133. Bartalotti, Otávio & Kédagni, Désiré & Possebom, Vitor, 2023. "Identifying marginal treatment effects in the presence of sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 565-584.
    134. Wenlong Ji & Lihua Lei & Asher Spector, 2023. "Model-Agnostic Covariate-Assisted Inference on Partially Identified Causal Effects," Papers 2310.08115, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    135. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Kenny, Geoff, 2020. "The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries," Working Paper Series 2507, European Central Bank.
    136. Yiwei Sun, 2023. "Extrapolating Away from the Cutoff in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2311.18136, arXiv.org.
    137. Philip Marx & Elie Tamer & Xun Tang, 2022. "Parallel Trends and Dynamic Choices," Papers 2207.06564, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    138. Lydon, Reamonn & Walker, Ian, 2004. "Welfare-to-Work, Wages and Wage Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 1144, IZA Network @ LISER.
    139. Yuehao Bai & Shunzhuang Huang & Sarah Moon & Andres Santos & Azeem M. Shaikh & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2024. "Inference for Treatment Effects Conditional on Generalized Principal Strata using Instrumental Variables," Papers 2411.05220, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    140. Beresteanu, Arie & Molchanov, Ilya & Molinari, Francesca, 2012. "Partial identification using random set theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 17-32.
    141. Victor Chernozhukov & Wooyoung Kim & Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Adam Rosen, 2014. "Implementing intersection bounds in Stata," CeMMAP working papers 25/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    142. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth & Jann Spiess, 2025. "Testing Monotonicity in a Finite Population," Papers 2512.25032, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    143. Machado, Cecilia & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2019. "Instrumental variables and the sign of the average treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 522-555.
    144. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Local identification in nonseparable models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    145. Balakrishnan Sivaraman & Kennedy Edward & Wasserman Larry, 2025. "Conservative inference for counterfactuals," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17.
    146. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2008. "Testing for stochastic monotonicity," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    147. Kevin E. Staub, 2010. "A causal interpretation of extensive and intensive margin effects in generalized Tobit models," SOI - Working Papers 1012, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    148. Vazquez-Alvarez, R., 2001. "A nonparametric approach to the sample selection problem in survey data," Other publications TiSEM 45870f3f-60db-40c3-83ef-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    149. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2008. "Estimating Supply and Demand in the World Oil Market," Working Papers 225893, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    150. Zheng Fang & Juwon Seo, 2019. "A Projection Framework for Testing Shape Restrictions That Form Convex Cones," Papers 1910.07689, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    151. Chiburis, Richard C., 2010. "Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 267-275, December.
    152. Craig Gundersen & Brent Kreider & John Pepper & Valerie Tarasuk, 2017. "Food assistance programs and food insecurity: implications for Canada in light of the mixing problem," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1065-1087, May.
    153. Seung Jin Cho, 2022. "The effect of aging out of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program on food insecurity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 664-685, April.
    154. Masayuki Sawada, 2019. "Noncompliance in randomized control trials without exclusion restrictions," Papers 1910.03204, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    155. Lee, Ji Hyung & Park, Byoung G., 2023. "Nonparametric identification and estimation of the extended Roy model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1087-1113.
    156. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "Concave‐monotone treatment response and monotone treatment selection: With an application to the returns to schooling," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 175-194, March.
    157. Das, Tirthatanmoy & Polachek, Solomon, 2022. "The Econometrics of Antidotal Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 15558, IZA Network @ LISER.
    158. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    159. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V. & Gundersen, Craig & Jolliffe, Dean, 2012. "Identifying the Effects of SNAP (Food Stamps) on Child Health Outcomes When Participation is Endogenous and Misreported," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13124, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    160. Chiba, Yasutaka, 2012. "Bounds on the complier average causal effect in randomized trials with noncompliance," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1352-1357.
    161. Victor S. Y. Lo & Yourong Xu & Zhuang Li & Melinda Thielbar, 2025. "Fairness testing for uplift models," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(3), pages 798-823, September.
    162. Yechan Park & Yuya Sasaki, 2024. "The Informativeness of Combined Experimental and Observational Data under Dynamic Selection," Papers 2403.16177, arXiv.org.
    163. Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Identification Design," Papers 2511.18647, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    164. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.
    165. Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Utilitarian or Quantile-Welfare Evaluation of Social Welfare? With Application to Health Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," Papers 2509.05529, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    166. Chen Xu, 2025. "Return to English Skills in China: Using a Nonparametric Bounding Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 403-435, June.
    167. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  62. Dominitz, J. & Manski, C.F., 1996. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Working papers 9614, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Federica Origo & Laura Pagani, 2008. "Flexicurity and Workers Well-Being in Europe: Is Temporary Employment Always Bad?," Working Papers 141, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2008.
    2. Hyytinen, Ari & Pajarinen, Mika, 2005. "Why Are All New Entrepreneurs Better Than Average? Evidence from Subjective Failure Rate Expectations," Discussion Papers 987, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
    4. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1998. "What Determines Earnings and Employment Risk?," CSEF Working Papers 08, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Becker, Sascha O. & Bentolila, Samuel & Fernandes, Ana & Ichino, Andrea, 2005. "Youth Emancipation and Perceived Job Insecurity of Parents and Children," IZA Discussion Papers 1836, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Flavio Cunha & Irma Elo & Jennifer Culhane, 2013. "Eliciting Maternal Expectations about the Technology of Cognitive Skill Formation," NBER Working Papers 19144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," JCPR Working Papers 273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    9. Clark, Andrew & Postel-Vinay, Fabien, 2005. "Job Security and Job Protection," CEPR Discussion Papers 4927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Böckerman, Petri, 2002. "Perception of job instability in Europe," MPRA Paper 4701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Maria Ward Otoo, 1997. "The sources of worker anxiety: evidence from the Michigan survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Graham Loomes & Judith Mehta, 2007. "The sensitivity of subjective probability to time and elicitation method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 201-216, June.
    13. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October.
    14. Jon D. Wisman & Kevin Capehart, 2009. "Creative Destruction, Economic Insecurity, Stress and Epidemic Obesity," Working Papers 2009-13 JEL classificatio, American University, Department of Economics.
    15. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
    16. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
    17. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Evans, Keith & Herriges, Joseph A., 2010. "Rounding in Recreation Demand Models: A Latent Class Count Model," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31594, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Offshoring, economic insecurity, and the demand for social insurance," Working Papers 2008-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Álvarez, Begoña & Vera-Hernández, Marcos, 2013. "Exploiting subjective information to understand impoverished children's use of health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1194-1204.
    22. Vladimir Gimpelson & Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2012. "Does More Unemployment Cause More Fear of Unemployment?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 13/EC/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    23. Francisco Maeso & Ildefonso Mendez, 2008. "The Role of Partnership Status and Expectations on the Emancipation Behaviour of Spanish Graduates," Working Papers wp2008_0812, CEMFI.
    24. Origo, Federica & Pagani, Laura, 2009. "Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 547-555, October.
    25. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Sonja G. Schatz, 2014. "Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    26. Moreno Baruffini & Federica Origo, 2014. "Job satisfaction and flexicurity over the business cycle: evidence from Swiss individual-level data," ERSA conference papers ersa14p366, European Regional Science Association.
    27. Martha Starr-McCluer, 1998. "Stock market wealth and consumer spending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Luca Casolaro & Leonardo Gambacorta & Luigi Guiso, 2005. "Regulation, formal and informal enforcement and the development of the household loan market. Lessons from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 560, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. ,, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Ingo Geishecker, 2010. "Perceived Job Insecurity and Well-Being Revisited: Towards Conceptual Clarity," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 282, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    32. Kavan Kucko & Kevin Rinz & Benjamin Solow, 2017. "Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Tax Notch," CARRA Working Papers 2017-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    33. Lars Osberg, 2009. "Measuring Economic Security in Insecure Times: New Perspectives, New Events, and the Index of Economic Well-being," CSLS Research Reports 2009-12, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    34. Peter AUER & Sandrine CAZES, 2000. "The resilience of the long-term employment relationship: Evidence from the industrialized countries," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 139(4), pages 379-408, December.
    35. Federico Fiorani & Vito De Sandi, 2026. "Measuring Economic Insecurity with Stata," Working Papers 692, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    36. Mendez, Ildefonso, 2008. "The Role of Partnership Status and Expectations on the Emancipation Behaviour of Spanish Graduates," MPRA Paper 8655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2003. ""Will Social Security Be There For You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits," NBER Working Papers 9798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  63. Goldberger, A.S. & Manski, C.F., 1995. "Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray," Working papers 9502, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Schütz & Ludger Wößmann, 2005. "Wie lässt sich die Ungleichheit der Bildungschancen verringern?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(21), pages 15-25, November.
    2. Erik Plug & Wim Vijverberg, 2003. "Schooling, Family Background, and Adoption: Is It Nature or Is It Nurture?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 611-641, June.
    3. Zetterberg, Johnny, 2005. "Swedish evidence on the impact of cognitive and non-cognitive ability on earnings – an extended pre-market factor approach," Working Paper Series 2005:16, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. Bönke, Timm & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2014. "Parental background matters: Intergenerational mobility and assimilation of Italian immigrants in Germany," Discussion Papers 2014/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Murnane, Richard J. & Willett, John B. & Braatz, M. Jay & Duhaldeborde, Yves, 2001. "Do different dimensions of male high school students' skills predict labor market success a decade later? Evidence from the NLSY," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 311-320, August.
    6. Hanushek, Eric Alan & Jacobs, Babs & Schwerdt, Guido & van der Velden, Rolf & Vermeulen, Stan & Wiederhold, Simon, 2022. "The intergenerational transmission of cognitive skills: An investigation of the causal impact of families on student outcomes," Working Papers 09, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    7. Seals, Richard Alan & Stern, Liliana V., 2013. "Cognitive ability and the division of labor in urban ghettos: Evidence from gang activity in U.S. data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-149.
    8. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    9. Sanders Korenman & Christopher Winship, 1995. "A Reanalysis of The Bell Curve," NBER Working Papers 5230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Daniele Checchi, 1997. "Education and Intergenerational Mobility in Occupations," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(1), pages 136-144.
    11. Dionissi Aliprantis, 2014. "When Should Children Start School?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 481-536.
    12. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2001. "The relative effect of family and financial characteristics on educational echievement," CEE Discussion Papers 0008, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    13. Janet Currie & Duncan Thomas, 1995. "Race, Children's Cognitive Achievement and The Bell Curve," NBER Working Papers 5240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Berhman, J-R & Kletzer, L & Constantine, J & McPherson, M & Schapiro, M-O, 1996. "The Impact of College Quality on Wages : Are There Differences Among Demographic Groups?," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-38, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    15. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2002. "The Relative Effect of Family Characteristics and Financial Situation on Educational Achievement," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 165-181.
    16. Israel, Mark & Seeborg, Michael, 1998. "The impact of youth characteristics and experiences on transitions out of poverty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 753-776.
    17. Dionissi Aliprantis & Daniel R. Carroll, 2012. "Neighborhood dynamics and the distribution of opportunity," Working Papers (Old Series) 1212, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Genes, Eyeglasses, and Social Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 83-94, Fall.
    19. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2024. "On the Origins of Socioeconomic Inequalities: Evidence from Twin Families," LISER Working Paper Series 2024-03, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    20. Marks, Gary N., 2022. "Cognitive ability has powerful, widespread and robust effects on social stratification: Evidence from the 1979 and 1997 US National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Blackburn, McKinley L., 2004. "The role of test scores in explaining race and gender differences in wages," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 555-576, December.

  64. Horowitz, J.L. & Manski, C.F., 1995. "Censoring of Outcomes and Regressors Due to Survey Nonresponse: Identification and Estimation Using Weights and Imputations," Working papers 9525, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Bracketing effects in categorized survey questions and the measurement of economic quantities," Papers 02-35, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    2. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Missing Treatments," Working Papers 05-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    3. David S. Lee, 2002. "Trimming for Bounds on Treatment Effects with Missing Outcomes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Steinhauer, Andreas, 2018. "Working Moms, Childlessness, and Female Identity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 293-301.
    6. Marco Castillo & Ragan Petrie, 2007. "Discrimination in the Warplace: Evidence from a Civil War in Peru," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2007-10, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    7. Inkmann, Joachim, 2006. "Compensating wage differentials for defined benefit and defined contribution occupational pension scheme benefits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24516, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Nicoletti, Cheti & Peracchi, Franco, 2004. "The effects of income imputation on micro analyses: evidence from the ECHP," ISER Working Paper Series 2004-19, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Grace Lordan & Kaveh Salehzadeh Nobari, 2025. "Sharp Hybrid Confidence Bands for Partially Identified Treatment Effects under Tail Uncertainty with an Application to Workforce Gender Diversity and Firm Performance," Papers 2509.01622, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    10. Yongwei Chen & Dahai Fu, 2015. "Measuring income inequality using survey data: the case of China," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(2), pages 299-307, June.
    11. Haile,P.A. & Tamer,E.T., 2000. "Inference with an incomplete model of English auctions," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    12. Rieck, Karsten Marshall E. & Telle, Kjetil, 2012. "Sick Leave Before, During and After Pregnancy," Working Papers in Economics 06/12, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    13. Joan Alegre & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2023. "Robust Minimum Distance Inference in Structural Models," Papers 2310.05761, arXiv.org.
    14. Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder & Donald B. Rebin, 1998. "Combining Panel Data Sets with Attrition and Refreshment Samples," NBER Technical Working Papers 0230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kraft, Holger & Kroisandt, Gerald & Müller, Marlene, 2002. "Assessing the discriminatory power of credit scores," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    17. Esmerelda A. Ramalho & Richard Smith, 2003. "Discrete choice non-response," CeMMAP working papers 07/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Damm, Anna Piil & Mattana, Elena & Nielsen, Helena Skyt, 2022. "Effects of school displacement on academic achievement and wellbeing of ethnic minorities," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Luc Behaghel & Bruno Crépon & Marc Gurgand & Thomas Le barbanchon, 2012. "Please Call Again, Correcting Non-response Bias in Treatment Effect Models," Working Papers 2012-15, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Xiangyu Song, 2026. "Conformal Inference for Experimental Attrition in Social Science Research," Papers 2604.00504, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    21. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    22. Jeff Dominitz & Robert P. Sherman, 2006. "Identification and estimation of bounds on school performance measures: a nonparametric analysis of a mixture model with verification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1295-1326, December.
    23. Andrew Chesher & Adam Rosen, 2019. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models, Methods, and Applications," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    24. Martin Huber, 2012. "Identification of Average Treatment Effects in Social Experiments Under Alternative Forms of Attrition," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 37(3), pages 443-474, June.
    25. Galichon, Alfred & Henry, Marc, 2009. "A test of non-identifying restrictions and confidence regions for partially identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 186-196, October.
    26. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes & Philip Stevens, 2008. "A Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Firm Performance Measures," Occasional Papers 08/4, Ministry of Economic Development, New Zealand.
    27. Arie Kapteyn & Pierre-Carl Michaud & James P. Smith & Arthur Van Soest, 2006. "Effects of Attrition and Non-Response in the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers WR-407, RAND Corporation.
    28. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2007. "Disability and Employment: Reevaluating the Evidence in Light of Reporting Errors," ISU General Staff Papers 200706010700001258, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    29. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-653, September.
    30. John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Hirsch, Barry, 2005. "Match Bias from Earnings Imputation in the Current Population Survey: The Case of Imperfect Matching," IZA Discussion Papers 1846, IZA Network @ LISER.
    32. Onur Başer & Joseph C. Gardiner & Cathy J. Bradley & Hüseyin Yüce & Charles Given, 2006. "Longitudinal analysis of censored medical cost data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 513-525, May.
    33. Martin Huber, 2010. "Identification of average treatment effects in social experiments under different forms of attrition," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    34. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Using Total Margin of Error to Account for Non-Sampling Error in Election Polls: The Case of Nonresponse," Papers 2407.19339, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    35. Zhiwei Zhang, 2010. "Profile Likelihood and Incomplete Data," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 78(1), pages 102-116, April.
    36. Tue Gørgens & Chris Ryan, 2008. "A bounds analysis of school completion rates in Australia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 287-304.
    37. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2006. "Asymptotic properties for a class of partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    38. Giuseppe De Luca & Franco Peracchi, 2007. "A sample selection model for unit and item nonresponse in cross-sectional surveys," CEIS Research Paper 95, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    39. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Partial Identification of Probability Distributions with Misclassified Data," Working Papers 05-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    40. Brownstone, David, 1997. "Multiple Imputation Methodology for Missing Data, Non-Random Response, and Panel Attrition," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2zd6w6hh, University of California Transportation Center.
    41. Cheti Nicoletti & Franco Peracchi & Francesca Foliano, 2009. "Estimating Income Poverty in the Presence of Missing Data and Measurement Error," CEIS Research Paper 145, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Sep 2009.
    42. Damm, Anna Piil & Mattana, Elena & Nielsen, Helena Skyt & Rouland, Benedicte, 2021. "Academic achievement and wellbeing of dual language learners: Evidence from a busing program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    43. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 11-21, July.
    44. Beenstock, Michael & Chiswick, Barry R. & Paltiel, Ari, 2005. "Endogenous Assimilation and Immigrant Adjustment in Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1840, IZA Network @ LISER.
    45. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    47. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    48. Nicoletti, Cheti & Peracchi, Franco & Foliano, Francesca, 2007. "Estimating income poverty in the presence of measurement error and missing data problems," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    49. Vazquez-Alvarez, R. & Melenberg, B. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2001. "Nonparametric Bounds in the Presence of Item Nonresponse, Unfolding Brackets and Anchoring," Discussion Paper 2001-67, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    50. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2002. "Inverse probability weighted M-estimators for sample selection, attrition and stratification," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    51. Inkmann, J., 2005. "Inverse Probability Weighted Generalised Empirical Likelihood Estimators : Firm Size and R&D Revisited," Discussion Paper 2005-131, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    52. Esmerelda A. Ramalho & Richard Smith, 2003. "Discrete choice non-response," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    53. Konstantin Ash, 2022. "State weakness and support for ethnic violence in Southern Kyrgyzstan," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(6), pages 860-875, November.
    54. Serdarevic, Nina & Strømland, Eirik & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2018. "It Pays to be Nice: The Benefits of Cooperating in Markets," Working Papers in Economics 12/18, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    55. Canay, Ivan A., 2010. "EL inference for partially identified models: Large deviations optimality and bootstrap validity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 408-425, June.
    56. Baser, Onur & Gardiner, Joseph C & Bradley, Cathy J & Given, Charles W, 2004. "Estimation from Censored Medical Cost Data," MPRA Paper 102198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 20098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Charles F Manski & Michael Gmeiner & Anat Tamburc, 2021. "Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem," Papers 2102.11334, arXiv.org.
    59. Maria Ana Odejar & Kostas Mavromaras & Mandy Ryan, 2004. "Messy Data Modelling in Health Care Contingent Valuation Studies," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 406, Econometric Society.
    60. Esteban-Bravo, Mercedes & Vidal-Sanz, Jose M., 2007. "Worst-case estimation for econometric models with unobservable components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3330-3354, April.
    61. Susan Godlonton, 2014. "Employment Risk and Job-Seeker Performance," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-10, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jun 2016.
    62. bunten, devin michelle & Fu, Ellen & Rolheiser, Lyndsey & Severen, Christopher, 2024. "The Problem Has Existed over Endless Years: Racialized Difference in Commuting, 1980–2019," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    63. Essig, Lothar & Winter, Joachim, 2003. "Item nonresponse to financial questions in household surveys: An experimental study of interviewer and mode effects," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-18, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    64. Andreas Steinhauer, 2018. "Working Moms, Childlessness, and Female Identity," Working Papers hal-03475468, HAL.
    65. Kaitlin Anderson & Gema Zamarro & Jennifer Steele & Trey Miller, 2021. "Comparing Performance of Methods to Deal With Differential Attrition in Randomized Experimental Evaluations," Evaluation Review, , vol. 45(1-2), pages 70-104, February.
    66. Inkmann, Joachim, 2001. "Accounting for Nonresponse Heterogeneity in Panel Data," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/03, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    67. Bruno Arpino & Elisabetta De Cao & Franco Peracchi, 2011. "Using panel data to partially identify HIV prevalence when HIV status is not missing at random," EIEF Working Papers Series 1113, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Aug 2011.
    68. Kamat, Vishal, 2019. "Identification with Latent Choice Sets," TSE Working Papers 19-1031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    69. Cho, Yoonyoung. & Kalomba, Davie. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq. & Orozco, Víctor., 2015. "Differences in the effects of vocational training on men and women : constraints on women and drop-out behaviour," ILO Working Papers 994874103402676, International Labour Organization.
    70. Nicoletti, Cheti, 2006. "Nonresponse in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 461-489, June.
    71. Eugene Kouassi & Jean Paul Tchankam & Oluyele Akinkugbe & J. M. Brou Bosson, 2022. "Is the intergenerational transmission of poverty a fallacy? Evidence from Botswana survey data," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 1476-1495, November.
    72. Andrew M. Jones & Xander Koolman & Nigel Rice, 2006. "Health‐related non‐response in the British Household Panel Survey and European Community Household Panel: using inverse‐probability‐weighted estimators in non‐linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 543-569, July.
    73. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Lindeboom, Maarten & Dolton, Peter, 2004. "Survey Non-Response and Unemployment Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 1303, IZA Network @ LISER.
    75. Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez, 2003. "Anchoring Bias and Covariate Nonresponse," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-19, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    76. Arkadiusz Szydlowski, 2015. "Endogenous Censoring in the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model with an Application to Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    77. Giulio Tarditi, 2007. "Poverty Analysis in the European Union: A Fuzzy Multidimensional Approach," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 37-80, November-.
    78. Gundersen, Craig & Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2009. "The Impact of the National School Lunch Program on Child Health: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13148, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    79. Christopher J. Gerry & Georgios Papadopoulos, 2015. "Sample attrition in the RLMS, 2001–10," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(2), pages 425-468, April.
    80. Anders Holm & Mads Meier Jæger, 2009. "Selection Bias in Educational Transition Models: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CAM Working Papers 2009-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    81. Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo & Lopez-Videla, Bruno, 2014. "Imputación de ingresos laborales: Una aplicación con encuestas de empleo en México [Labor earnings imputation: An application using labor surveys in Mexico]," MPRA Paper 54436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. James L. Powell, 2017. "Identification and Asymptotic Approximations: Three Examples of Progress in Econometric Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 107-124, Spring.
    83. Cho, Yoon Y. & Kalomba, Davie & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Orozco, Victor, 2013. "Gender Differences in the Effects of Vocational Training: Constraints on Women and Drop-Out Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 7408, IZA Network @ LISER.
    84. Raimondo Pala, 2025. "Control VAR: a counterfactual based approach to inference in macroeconomics," Papers 2510.23762, arXiv.org.
    85. Lordan, Grace & Salehzadeh Nobari, Kaveh, 2025. "Finite-sample non-parametric bounds with an application to the causal effect of workforce gender diversity on firm performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 129445, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    86. Alcocer Quinones, Laura, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of PFAS Water Regulation," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360740, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    87. Riphahn, Regina T. & Serfling, Oliver, 2002. "Item Non-Response on Income and Wealth Questions," IZA Discussion Papers 573, IZA Network @ LISER.
    88. Denis Conniffe & Vanessa Gash & Philip J., 2000. "Evaluating Programmes: Experiments, Non-Experiments and Propensity Scores," Papers WP126, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    89. Dietz, Brian, 2001. "An Analysis Of Statistical Errors In Contingent Valuation Surveys," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20462, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    90. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Identification and estimation of statistical functionals using incomplete data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 445-459, June.
    91. Arvid Raknerud, 2002. "Identification, Estimation and Testing in Panel Data Models with Attrition: The Role of the Missing at Random Assumption," Discussion Papers 330, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    92. Christoph Feichter & Frank Moers & Oscar Timmermans, 2022. "Relative Performance Evaluation and Competitive Aggressiveness," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(5), pages 1859-1913, December.
    93. Jakiela, Pamela & Ozier, Owen, 2020. "Gendered Language," IZA Discussion Papers 13126, IZA Network @ LISER.
    94. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    95. Emre Ekinci, 2009. "Dealing with Attrition When Refreshment Samples are Available: An Application to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," 2009 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    96. Roderick J. Little & James R. Carpenter & Katherine J. Lee, 2024. "A Comparison of Three Popular Methods for Handling Missing Data: Complete-Case Analysis, Inverse Probability Weighting, and Multiple Imputation," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 53(3), pages 1105-1135, August.

  65. Manski, C.F., 1995. "Learning About Social Programs from Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments," Working papers 9505, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Friedlander & Philip K. Robins, 1997. "The Distributional Impacts of Social Programs," Evaluation Review, , vol. 21(5), pages 531-553, October.
    2. Mark Schreiner, 2001. "Evaluation and Microenterprise Programs," Development and Comp Systems 0108002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Dec 2001.
    3. Cristian Aedo, "undated". "The Impact of Training Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Case of "Programa Joven"," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv131, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1994. "Natural and Quasi- Experiments in Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Steven Levitt & John List, 2008. "Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future," Artefactual Field Experiments 00079, The Field Experiments Website.
    6. Peter Glick, 2005. "Scaling Up HIV Voluntary Counseling and Testing in Africa," Evaluation Review, , vol. 29(4), pages 331-357, August.

  66. Manski, C.F. & Nagin, D.S., 1995. "Bounding Disagreements About Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism," Working papers 9526, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2000. "Direct estimation of policy impacts," IFS Working Papers W00/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. E. Michael Foster & Leonard Bickman, 1996. "An Evaluator's Guide To Detecting Attrition Problems," Evaluation Review, , vol. 20(6), pages 695-723, December.
    3. Libertad González, 2003. "Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills," Economics Working Papers 714, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Adam Rosen, 2006. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Susan Watkins & Ina Warriner, 2003. "How do we know we need to control for selectivity?," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(4), pages 109-142.
    6. Volker Meier, 2001. "On Prison and Therapy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 47-56, July.
    7. John V. Pepper, 1999. "What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," JCPR Working Papers 105, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jere R. Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & Susan Cotts Watkins, 2001. "How can we measure the causal effects of social networks using observational data? Evidence from the diffusion of family planning and AIDS worries in South Nyanza District, Kenya," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  67. Horowitz, J.L. & Manski, C.F., 1995. "What Can Be Learned About Population Parameters when the Data Are Contaminated," Working Papers 95-18, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Huse, Cristian & Koptyug, Nikita, 2016. "Bailing on the car that wasn’t bailed out: bounding consumer reactions to financial distress," MPRA Paper 72796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2006. "Asymptotic properties for a class of partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Robert P. Sherman & Jeff Dominitz, 2006. "Identification and estimation of bounds on school performance measures: a nonparametric analysis of a mixture model with verification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1295-1326.
    4. D. O Neill & O. Sweetman & D. Van De Gaer, 2002. "Consequences of Specification Error for Distributional Analysis With an Application to Intergenerational Mobility," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 02/156, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

  68. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Yifan Gong & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2019. "Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 26334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Teodora Boneva & Marta Golin & Katja Kaufmann & Christopher Rauh, 2024. "Beliefs About Maternal Labor Supply," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 300, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Ghazala Azmat & Katja Maria Kaufmann, 2021. "Formation of College Plans: Expected Returns, Preferences and Adjustment Process," Working Papers hal-03812823, HAL.
    4. Jürg Schweri & Stefan C. Wolter & Joop Hartog, 2008. "Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0011, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    5. Bratti, Massimiliano & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, "undated". "Different returns to different degrees? Evidence from the British Cohort Study 1970," Economic Research Papers 269754, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    6. Gunes, Pinar Mine & Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2020. "Macroeconomic conditions and child schooling in Turkey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Maurel, Arnaud & Romano, Teresa, 2014. "Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data," IZA Discussion Papers 8549, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Boneva, Teodora & Buser, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Kosse, Fabian, 2021. "The Origins of Gender Differences in Competitiveness and Earnings Expectations: Causal Evidence from a Mentoring Intervention," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 295, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. Fossen, Frank M. & Glocker, Daniela, 2017. "Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-25.
    10. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2013. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," NBER Working Papers 19165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jensen, Robert & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2012. "Does staying in school (and not working) prevent teen smoking and drinking?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 644-657.
    12. Maria Eliophotou Menon & Sofia N. Andreou & Elias Markadjis, 2020. "The expectations of prospective students regarding the economic returns to higher education: Evidence from Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 14(1), pages 41-56, June.
    13. Boneva, Teodora & Kaufmann, Katja Maria & Rauh, Christopher, 2021. "Maternal Labor Supply: Perceived Returns, Constraints, and Social Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 14348, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Kaufmann, Katja M., 2014. "Education choices and returns to schooling: Mothers' and youths' subjective expectations and their role by gender," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 203-216.
    15. Vaishali Zambre, 2018. "The Gender Gap in Wage Expectations: Do Young Women Trade off Higher Wages for Lower Wage Risk?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    17. Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer, 2019. "The Importance of Tax Adjustments When Evaluating Wage Expectations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 578-605, April.
    18. Sean Nicholson, 2004. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," NBER Working Papers 10542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bas Jacobs & Joop Hartog & Wim Vijverberg, 2009. "Self-selection bias in estimated wage premiums for earnings risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 271-286, October.
    20. Yanan Zhang & Xiaowen Tian & Muhammad Tayyab Sohail, 2022. "Analysis of the factors influencing the college students’ employment willingness under the strategy of “strengthening the provincial capital”," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(12), pages 1-20, December.
    21. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Chad Kendall & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Trebbi, 2013. "How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign," Working Papers 486, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    23. Kerwin, Jason & Pandey, Divya, 2023. "Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 16478, IZA Network @ LISER.
    24. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    26. Ben Jensen & Mark N. Harris, 2008. "Neighbourhood Measures: Quantifying the Effects of Neighbourhood Externalities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 68-81, March.
    27. Alfredo Alvarado & Belén Conde & Rafael Novella & Andrea Repetto, 2020. "NEETs in Latin America and the Caribbean: Skills, Aspirations, and Information," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 1273-1307, November.
    28. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    29. Václav Urbánek & Kateřina Maršíková-Nepolská, 2005. "Financial Market in the Czech Republic and Human Capital Investment: Private Financing of Higher Education," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(2), pages 131-146.
    30. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    31. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg, 2016. "Subjective Expectations and Income Processes in Rural India," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 416-442, July.
    32. Orazio Attanasio & V’ctor Sancibri‡n & Federica Ambrosio, 2025. "New Measures for Richer Theories: Some Thoughts and an Example," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2477, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    33. Lekfuangfu, Warn N., 2022. "Mortality risk, perception, and human capital investments: The legacy of landmines in Cambodia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    34. Hanna Brosch & Philipp Lergetporer & Florian Schoner, 2025. "Worker Beliefs about Firm Training," Munich Papers in Political Economy 44, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    35. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," JCPR Working Papers 273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    36. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2007. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," NBER Working Papers 13340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Belief updating among college students: evidence from experimental variation in information," Staff Reports 516, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  69. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Das, J.W.M. & Donkers, A.C.D., 1997. "How Certain are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis," Other publications TiSEM d8aabd66-ddc7-4834-a157-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Giamboni, Luigi & Millemaci, Emanuele & Waldmann, Robert, 2007. "Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption," MPRA Paper 12939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
    4. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2013. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," NBER Working Papers 19165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Steven N. Durlauf, 2002. "On the Empirics of Social Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 459-479, November.
    6. Xavi Ramos & Christian Schluter, 2003. "Subjective Income Expectations, Canonical Models and Income Risk," Working Papers wpdea0310, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    7. Hyytinen, Ari & Pajarinen, Mika, 2005. "Why Are All New Entrepreneurs Better Than Average? Evidence from Subjective Failure Rate Expectations," Discussion Papers 987, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    8. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    10. Sean Nicholson, 2004. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," NBER Working Papers 10542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1998. "What Determines Earnings and Employment Risk?," CSEF Working Papers 08, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. R Alessie & A Kapteyn, 2001. "New data for understanding saving," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, Spring.
    13. S. Balia, 2011. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from European countries," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/30, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2008. "Learning About Academic Ability and the College Drop-Out Decision," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20086, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    15. Franco Peracchi & Valeria Perotti, 2010. "Subjective survival probabilities and life tables: Evidence from Europe," EIEF Working Papers Series 1016, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2011.
    16. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Working Papers wp062, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    17. Flavio Cunha & Irma Elo & Jennifer Culhane, 2013. "Eliciting Maternal Expectations about the Technology of Cognitive Skill Formation," NBER Working Papers 19144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," JCPR Working Papers 273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    19. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2007. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," NBER Working Papers 13340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bertola, Giuseppe & Rogerson, Richard, 1997. "Institutions and labor reallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1147-1171, June.
    21. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2013. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," NBER Working Papers 18945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2008. "Monitoring optimistic agents," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00272928, HAL.
    23. Benjamin A. Olken, 2006. "Corruption Perceptions vs. Corruption Reality," NBER Working Papers 12428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    25. Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1995. "Expected and Realized Income Changes : Evidence From the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel," Other publications TiSEM cd97154d-b1fd-490e-9e30-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    26. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 5690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2011. "Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20111, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    28. Frank Sloan & Alyssa Platt, 2011. "Information, risk perceptions, and smoking choices of youth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 161-193, April.
    29. Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2006. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Working Papers in Economics 06/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    30. Philip Oreopoulos, 2003. "Do Dropouts Drop Out Too Soon? International Evidence From Changes in School-Leaving Laws," NBER Working Papers 10155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
    32. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2009. "Structural Estimation and Policy Evaluation in Developing Countries," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    33. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
    34. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    35. Charles Bellemare & Luc Bissonnette & Sabine Kroger, 2007. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations using Probability Questions -An Application to the Investment Game-," Cahiers de recherche 0734, CIRPEE.
    36. Angrist, Joshua & Lang, Daniel W. & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2007. "Incentives and Services for College Achievement: Evidence from a Randomized Trial," IZA Discussion Papers 3134, IZA Network @ LISER.
    37. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    38. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Perceptions of economic vulnerability: First evidence from the survey of economic expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1069-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    41. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Giuseppe Fiori & Filippo Scoccianti, 2021. "The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 630, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    43. Kapteyn, Arie & Kleinjans, Kristin J. & van Soest, Arthur, 2009. "Intertemporal consumption with directly measured welfare functions and subjective expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 425-437, October.
    44. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1998. "Background Uuncertainty and the Demand for Insurance against Insurable Risks," CSEF Working Papers 02, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    45. Donkers, Bas & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "Subjective measures of household preferences and financial decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 613-642, December.
    46. Martin Browning & Mette Ejrnaes & Javier Alvarez, 2006. "Modelling income processes with lots of heterogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 285, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    47. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    48. Rainer Winkelmann, 2002. "Subjektive Daten in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung: Probleme und Perspektiven," SOI - Working Papers 0207, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Jul 2002.
    49. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013. "Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
    50. Frijters, Paul & de New, John & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, IZA Network @ LISER.
    51. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Sonja G. Schatz, 2014. "Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    52. Neri, Claudia, 2012. "Eliciting Beliefs in Continuous-Choice Games: A Double Auction Experiment," Economics Working Paper Series 1207, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Dec 2012.
    53. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
    54. Steven Haider & Mel StephensJr., 2006. "How Accurate are Expected Retirement Savings?," Working Papers wp128, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    55. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2007. "A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved with Gold: Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expectations about Incomes Abroad?," IZA Discussion Papers 2788, IZA Network @ LISER.
    56. Debebe, Z.Y. & O'Donnell, O.A. & Mebratie, A.D. & Alemu, G. & Bedi, A.S., 2015. "Subjective expectations of medical expenditures and insurance in rural Ethiopia," ISS Working Papers - General Series 611, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    57. Philip Oreopoulos, 2003. "Do Dropouts Drop Out Too Soon? Evidence from Changes in School-Leaving Laws," Working Papers oreo-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    58. Croushore, Dean, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 279-293, August.
    59. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2011. "Motivations for the Bessarabian youth to study in Romanian universities," MPRA Paper 41621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Oct 2011.
    60. Carman, Katherine Grace & Kooreman, Peter, 2011. "Flu Shots, Mammograms, and the Perception of Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 5739, IZA Network @ LISER.
    61. Joshua Angrist & Daniel Lang & Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Lead Them to Water and Pay Them to Drink: An Experiment with Services and Incentives for College Achievement," NBER Working Papers 12790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. Anchor, John R. & Fiserová, Jana & Mars[iota]ková, Katerina & Urbánek, Václav, 2011. "Student expectations of the financial returns to higher education in the Czech Republic and England: Evidence from business schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 673-681, August.
    63. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    64. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February.
    65. ,, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    66. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2000. "The dynamics of household wealth accumulation in Italy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 269-295, June.
    67. Mazza, Jacopo & Hartog, Joop, 2011. "Do They Understand the Benefits from Education? Evidence on Dutch High School Students’ Earnings Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 5714, IZA Network @ LISER.
    68. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
    69. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    70. Manski, Charles F., 2002. "Identification of decision rules in experiments on simple games of proposal and response," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 880-891, May.
    71. Wolter, Stefan C. & Zbinden, André, 2001. "Rates of Return to Education: The View of Students in Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 371, IZA Network @ LISER.
    72. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 152-175, March.
    73. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per & Dahlberg, Matz, 2003. "An Empirical Approach for Evaluating Soft Budget Constraints," Working Paper Series 2003:28, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    74. Maria G. Perozek, 2005. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    75. Sean Nicholson & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Physician Income Prediction Errors: Sources and Implications for Behavior," NBER Working Papers 8907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Ramos, Xavier & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, IZA Network @ LISER.
    77. Yu, Ge, 2003. "Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data," MPRA Paper 502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    78. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Kang, Songman, 2010. "Modeling College Major Choices Using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals," IZA Discussion Papers 4738, IZA Network @ LISER.
    79. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2003. ""Will Social Security Be There For You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits," NBER Working Papers 9798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    80. Stefano Iezzi, 2008. "Investors' risk attitude and risky behavior: a Bayesian approach with imperfect information," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 692, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    81. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    82. Trudy Cameron, 2005. "Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-97, January.
    83. Richard Disney & Tanner, Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    84. Nyhus, Ellen K. & Pons, Empar, 2005. "The effects of personality on earnings," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 363-384, June.
    85. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Expectations, Reservation Wages And Employment: Evidence From British Panel Data," Working Papers 2008007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2008.
    86. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    87. Driver, Ciaran & Whelan, Brendan, 2001. "The effect of business risk on manufacturing investment: Sectoral survey evidence from Ireland," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 403-412, April.
    88. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2010. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5458, The World Bank.
    89. David Kelly & David Letson & Forest Nelson & David S. Nolan & Daniel Solis, 2009. "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 0905, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    90. Pudney, Stephen, 2010. "Perception and retrospection: the dynamic consistency of responses to survey questions on wellbeing," ISER Working Paper Series 2010-07, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

  70. Manski, C.F., 1993. "What Do Controlled Experiments Reveal About Outcomes When Treatments Vary?," Working papers 9313, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Littell, Julia H., 1997. "Effects of the duration, intensity, and breadth of family preservation services: A new analysis of data from the illinois family first experiment," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 17-39.

  71. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    2. Caliendo, Marco & Steiner, Viktor, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse (Active labour market policy in Germany * review ans assessment of the microeconomic evaluation results)," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 396-418.
    3. Kobus, Martyna & Kurek, Radosław, 2018. "Copula-based measurement of interdependence for discrete distributions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 27-39.
    4. Charles F. Manski & Eytan Sheshinski, 2024. "The Subtlety of Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality," Papers 2410.13658, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    5. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    6. Annabelle Doerr & Anthony Strittmatter, 2020. "Identifying causal channels of policy reforms with multiple treatments and different types of selection," Papers 2010.05221, arXiv.org.
    7. Guido W. Imbens, 2010. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 399-423, June.
    8. Firpo, Sergio, 2010. "Identification and Estimation of Distributional Impacts of Interventions Using Changes in Inequality Measures," IZA Discussion Papers 4841, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Charles F. Manski & John Newman & John V. Pepper, 2002. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 26(4), pages 355-381, August.
    10. Mattoo, Aaditya & Cadot, Olivier & Gourdon, Julien & Fernandes, Ana Margarida, 2011. "Impact Evaluation of Trade Interventions: Paving the Way," CEPR Discussion Papers 8638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Caliendo, Marco & Hujer, Reinhard & Thomsen, Stephan L., 2005. "Identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the efficiency of job creation schemes in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 200508, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Eric Auerbach & Yong Cai, 2022. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects for Networks, Panels, and other Outcome Matrices," Papers 2205.01246, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    13. Caliendo, Marco & Steiner, Viktor, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse (Active labour market policy in Germany * review ans assessment of the microecono," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 396-418.
    14. Nathan Kallus, 2022. "What's the Harm? Sharp Bounds on the Fraction Negatively Affected by Treatment," Papers 2205.10327, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    15. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    16. Whitney Newey & Guido Imbens, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models without Additivity," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 594, Econometric Society.
    17. Marco Caliendo & Viktor Steiner, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland: Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 515, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Sergio Firpo, 2004. "Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 605, Econometric Society.
    19. John V. Pepper, 1999. "What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," JCPR Working Papers 105, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    20. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
    21. Charles F. Manski, 2001. "Designing Programs for Heterogeneous Populations: The Value of Covariate Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 103-106, May.
    22. Vishal Kamat, 2018. "On the Identifying Content of Instrument Monotonicity," Papers 1807.01661, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    23. Fan, Yanqin & Park, Sang Soo, 2009. "Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects and its confidence sets," MPRA Paper 37148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    25. Tomas J. Philipson, 2000. "External Treatment Effects and Program Implementation Bias," NBER Technical Working Papers 0250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Julie H. Mortimer, 1999. "Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences," NBER Technical Working Papers 0238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. C. F. Manski, "undated". "Learning about social programs from experiments with random assignment of treatments," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1061-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    28. Eric Auerbach & Yong Cai, 2023. "Identifying Socially Disruptive Policies," Papers 2306.15000, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    29. Craig Gundersen & Brent Kreider & John Pepper & Valerie Tarasuk, 2017. "Food assistance programs and food insecurity: implications for Canada in light of the mixing problem," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1065-1087, May.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  72. Manski, Charles F., 1992. "Identification Problems In The Social Sciences," SSRI Workshop Series 292716, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Pizer, William & Imbens, Guido, 2000. "The Analysis of Randomized Experiments with Missing Data," RFF Working Paper Series dp-00-19, Resources for the Future.
    2. Mike Shields & Mark Wooden, 2003. "Investigating the Role of Neighbourhood Characteristics in Determining Life Satisfaction," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Gunnar Andersson & Karsten Hank & Andres Vikat, 2006. "Understanding parental gender preferences in advanced societies: lessons from Sweden and Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. B.R. Chiswick & P.W. Miller, 1993. "The Endogeneity Between Language and Earnings: An international analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Hans-Peter Kohler & Kaare Christensen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Axel Skytthe, 2002. "The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(14), pages 383-408.
    6. Giulio Zanella, 2004. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions and Endogenous Memberships," Department of Economics University of Siena 442, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2002. "Simple and Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Arthur van Soest & Michael Hurd, 2004. "A Test for Anchoring and Yea-Saying in Experimental Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 10462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Haile,P.A. & Tamer,E.T., 2000. "Inference with an incomplete model of English auctions," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    10. Markus Gangl & Thomas A. DiPrete, 2004. "Kausalanalyse durch Matchingverfahren," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 401, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Mauricio Drelichman, 2004. "The Curse of Moctezuma: American Silver and the Dutch Disease, 1501-1650," Economic History 0404001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hedström, Peter & Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Åberg, Yvonne, 2003. "Social Interactions and Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2003:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    13. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder & Donald B. Rebin, 1998. "Combining Panel Data Sets with Attrition and Refreshment Samples," NBER Technical Working Papers 0230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Marcello Estevao & Saul Lach, 1999. "Measuring Temporary Labor Outsourcing in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 7421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    60. Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2007. "Informal Employment Relationships and Labor Market Segmentation in Transition Economies: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 3269, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    1. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  74. Manski, C.F., 1991. "Adolescent Econometricians : How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling," Working papers 9110, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

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    1. Michael S. McPherson & Morton Owen Schapiro & Dennis Ahlburg, 1994. "Predicting Higher Education Enrollment in the United States: An Evaluation of Different Modelling Approaches," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-26, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    2. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Maurel, Arnaud & Romano, Teresa, 2014. "Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations using Subjective Expectations Data," IZA Discussion Papers 8549, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Carvalho, José-Raimundo & Magnac, Thierry & Xiong, Qizhou, 2016. "College Choice and the Selection of Mechanisms: A Structural Empirical Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Fossen, Frank M. & Glocker, Daniela, 2017. "Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-25.
    5. Maria D. Tito, 2017. "Looking Inside the Magic 8 Ball : An Analysis of Sales Forecasts using Italian Firm-Level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Yongseok Shin & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, 2013. "The Option Value of Human Capital," 2013 Meeting Papers 986, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    9. Longhi, Simonetta & Brynin, Malcolm, 2006. "The wage effects of graduate competition," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-58, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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    11. Sean Nicholson, 2004. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," NBER Working Papers 10542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    32. Giovanni Abbiati & Carlo Barone, 2017. "Is university education worth the investment? The expectations of upper secondary school seniors and the role of family background," Rationality and Society, , vol. 29(2), pages 113-159, May.
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    38. Schweri, Jürg & Hartog, Joop, 2015. "Do Wage Expectations Influence the Decision to Enroll in Nursing College?," IZA Discussion Papers 9120, IZA Network @ LISER.
    39. Yu Xie & Kimberlee A. Shauman, 1997. "Modeling the Sex-Typing of Occupational Choice," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 26(2), pages 233-261, November.
    40. Gunderson, Morley & Krashinsky, Harry, 2009. "Do Education Decisions Respond to Returns by Field of Study?," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-62, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Nov 2009.
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    42. Orazem, Peter & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1997. "Macrodynamic Implications of Income Transfer Policies for Human Capital Investment and School Effort," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1683, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    43. Nathan Deutscher, 2020. "What Drives Second Generation Success? The Roles Of Education, Culture, And Context," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1707-1730, October.
    44. Webbink, Dinand & Hartog, Joop, 2004. "Can students predict starting salaries? Yes!," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 103-113, April.
    45. Sequeira, Sandra & Spinnewijn, Johannes & Xu, Guo, 2016. "Rewarding schooling success and perceived returns to education: evidence from India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    46. Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1995. "Choosing the optimum mix of duration and effort in education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 253-263, September.
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    48. Peter, Frauke H. & Zambre, Vaishali, 2017. "Intended college enrollment and educational inequality: Do students lack information?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 125-141.
    49. Babcock, Linda & Engberg, John & Greenbaum, Robert, 2005. "Wage spillovers in public sector contract negotiations: the importance of social comparisons," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 395-416, July.
    50. Bennett, Patrick & Blundell, Richard & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2020. "A Second Chance? Labor Market Returns to Adult Education Using School Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 13592, IZA Network @ LISER.
    51. Tomasz Gajderowicz & Gabriela Grotkowska & Jerzy Mycielski & Leszek Wincenciak, 2014. "Social and economic determinants of higher education choices in Poland," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 38.
    52. Wolfe, Barbara & Wilson, Kathryn & Haveman, Robert, 2001. "The role of economic incentives in teenage nonmarital childbearing choices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 473-511, September.
    53. Neugart, Michael & Tuinstra, Jan, 2001. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 01-209, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    54. Tacsir, Ezequiel, 2010. "Making your own future: Expectations and occupation choice," MERIT Working Papers 2010-058, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    55. Mads Meier Jæger, 2007. "Economic and Social Returns To Educational Choices," Rationality and Society, , vol. 19(4), pages 451-483, November.
    56. Ludwig, Jens, 1999. "Information and inner city educational attainment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 17-30, February.
    57. Fumiya Uchikoshi & Hirofumi Miwa & Yoshikuni Ono, 2025. "Gendered Expectations for College Applications: Experimental Evidence from a Gender Inegalitarian Education Context," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(5), pages 1-27, August.
    58. Katja Kaufmann, 2008. "Understanding the Income Gradient in College Attendance in Mexico: The Role of Heterogeneity in Expected Returns to College," Discussion Papers 07-040, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    59. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Anderberg, Dan & Chevalier, Arnaud & Hassani Nezhad, Lena & Lührmann, Melanie & Pavan, Ronni, 2020. "Higher Education Financing and the Educational Aspirations of Teenagers and their Parents," IZA Discussion Papers 13807, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    67. BONOMO, Marco & GARCIA, René, 1997. "Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market," Cahiers de recherche 1997, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    68. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Kang, Songman, 2012. "Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 3-16.
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    2703. Missirian, Anouch, 2024. "Yes, in your backyard: Forced technological adoption and spatial externalities," TSE Working Papers 24-1545, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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    2705. Chang, Yuyuan & Foss, Nicolai J. & Li, Shuping & Xie, Jing, 2024. "Compensation peer effects of corporate social responsibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2706. Zhou, Weina & Wang, Shun, 2023. "Early childhood health shocks, classroom environment, and social-emotional outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
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    2708. Gille, Véronique, 2011. "Education spillovers in farm productivity: empirical evidence in rural India," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 31, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
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    2710. Weiergräber, Stefan, 2014. "Network Effects and Switching Costs in the US Wireless Industry," Discussion Papers in Economics 25094, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2711. Mingdi Wang & Biao Luo, 2024. "Research Progress of Peer Effects in Consumption Based on CiteSpace Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-22, July.
    2712. Engin Kara, 2025. "The Natural Rate of Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 12306, CESifo.
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    2716. Beltran, Daniel O. & Bolotnyy, Valentin & Klee, Elizabeth, 2021. "The federal funds network and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 187-202.
    2717. Francisco Bastida & Bernardino Benito & Maria-Dolores Guillamon, 2019. "Tax mimicking in Spanish municipalities: expenditure spillovers, yardstick competition, or tax competition?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 115-139.
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    2726. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Suher, Michael & Torrats-Espinosa, Gerard, 2019. "Neighbors and networks: The role of social interactions on the residential choices of housing choice voucher holders," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 56-71.
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    2730. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "The Role of Catering Incentives in ESG Disclosure," MPRA Paper 120930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2731. Elise de Vuijst & Maarten van Ham & Reinout Kleinhans, 2017. "The moderating effect of higher education on the intergenerational transmission of residing in poverty neighbourhoods," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 49(9), pages 2135-2154, September.
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    2734. Arora, Gaurav & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A. & Loesch, Charles R. & Kvas, Susan, 2021. "The impact of production network economies on spatially-contiguous conservation– Theoretical model with evidence from the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
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    7. Markus Gangl & Thomas A. DiPrete, 2004. "Kausalanalyse durch Matchingverfahren," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 401, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Lechner, Michael & Vazquez-Alvarez, Rosalia, 2003. "The Effect of Disability on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany: Evidence from Matching," IZA Discussion Papers 967, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. John C. Ham & Kevin T. Reilly, 2002. "Testing Intertemporal Substitution, Implicit Contracts, and Hours Restriction Models of the Labor Market Using Micro Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 905-927, September.
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    22. Entorf, Horst & Lauk, Martina, 2006. "Peer Effects, Social Multipliers and Migrants at School: An International Comparison," IZA Discussion Papers 2182, IZA Network @ LISER.
    23. Katrin Hussinger, 2004. "R&D and Subsidies at the Firm Level: An Application of Parametric and Semi-Parametric Two-Step Selection Models," Public Economics 0403005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Lechner, Michael & Melly, Blaise, 2007. "Earnings Effects of Training Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 6400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    39. Jay Bhattacharya & Azeem Shaikh & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Treatment Effect Bounds: An Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization," NBER Working Papers 11263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    41. Stephen Machin & Costas Meghir, 2000. "Crime and economic incentives," IFS Working Papers W00/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    43. John V. Pepper, 1998. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data: General Issues and Application to a Higher Education Block Grant Program," Virginia Economics Online Papers 312, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
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    49. Heineck, Guido & Schwarze, Johannes, 2004. "Fly Me to the Moon: The Determinants of Secondary Jobholding in Germany and the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 1358, IZA Network @ LISER.
    50. Clark, Andrew E. & Lohéac, Youenn, 2005. ""It Wasn't Me, It Was Them!" - Social Influence in Risky Behavior by Adolescents," IZA Discussion Papers 1573, IZA Network @ LISER.
    51. C. F. Manski, "undated". "Learning about social programs from experiments with random assignment of treatments," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1061-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    52. Yannis M. Ioannides & Giulio Zanella, 2008. "Searching for the Best Neighborhood: Mobility and Social Interactions," Department of Economics University of Siena 533, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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    2. G. Ellison & D. Fudenberg, 2010. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Levine's Working Paper Archive 435, David K. Levine.
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  78. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

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    3. Haile, Getinet & Nguyen, Ngoc Anh, 2007. "Determinants of Academic Attainment in the US: a Quantile regression analysis of test scores," MPRA Paper 4626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2002. "Simple and Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Anders Björklund & Donna Ginther & Marianne Sundström, 2007. "Family structure and child outcomes in the USA and Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 183-201, February.
    8. Antecol, Heather & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., 2001. "The Sexual Harassment of Female Active-Duty Personnel: Effects on Job Satisfaction and Intentions to Remain in the Military," IZA Discussion Papers 379, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Michael J. Shanahan & Adam Davey & Jennifer Brooks, 1998. "Dynamic Models of Poverty and Psychosocial Adjustment through Childhood," JCPR Working Papers 49, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    10. Libertad González, 2003. "Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills," Economics Working Papers 714, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Kathryn Wilson, 2000. "Using the Psid to Study the Effects of School Spending," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(5), pages 428-451, September.
    12. Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Simultaneity With Downward Sloping Demand," Econometrics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chiswick, Barry R. & DebBurman, Noyna, 2004. "Pre-School Enrollment: An Analysis by Immigrant Generation," IZA Discussion Papers 1226, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. J. B. Engberg & T. Kim, "undated". "Person or Place? Parametric and semiparametric estimates of intrametropolitan earnings variation," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1089-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
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    17. Anna Sanz De Galdeano, 2004. "Does Parental Divorce Affect Adolescents' Cognitive Development? Evidence from Longitudinal Data," CSEF Working Papers 128, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
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    25. Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna & Vuri, Daniela, 2004. "Does Parental Divorce Affect Adolescents' Cognitive Development? Evidence from Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1206, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    37. Rocio Sánchez-Mangas & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, "undated". "Reconciling female labor participation and motherhood: the effect of benefits for working mothers," Studies on the Spanish Economy 195, FEDEA.

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    7. Patrick Kline & Christopher R. Walters, 2017. "On Heckits, LATE, and Numerical Equivalence," Papers 1706.05982, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
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    243. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    244. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," Papers 1912.08726, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    245. Taehyeon Koo & Zijian Guo, 2025. "Distributionally Robust Synthetic Control: Ensuring Robustness Against Highly Correlated Controls and Weight Shifts," Papers 2511.02632, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    246. Beresteanu, Arie & Molchanov, Ilya & Molinari, Francesca, 2012. "Partial identification using random set theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 17-32.
    247. Guildo W. Imbens, 2003. "Sensitivity to Exogeneity Assumptions in Program Evaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 126-132, May.
    248. Victor Chernozhukov & Wooyoung Kim & Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Adam Rosen, 2014. "Implementing intersection bounds in Stata," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    249. Kitagawa, Toru, 2021. "The identification region of the potential outcome distributions under instrument independence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 231-253.
    250. Jakub Ryłow, 2026. "Causal Inference under Algorithmic Interference: Identification and Estimation without SUTVA in Platform Economies," Working Papers 2026-7, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    251. Eric Auerbach & Hongchang Guo & Max Tabord-Meehan, 2021. "The Local Approach to Causal Inference under Network Interference," Papers 2105.03810, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    252. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    253. Machado, Cecilia & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2019. "Instrumental variables and the sign of the average treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 522-555.
    254. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2011. "Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections," NBER Working Papers 17455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    255. Christopher Blattman & Julian Jamison & Margaret Sheridan, 2016. "Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia [Appendix]," Artefactual Field Experiments 00545, The Field Experiments Website.
    256. Charles Grant & Mario Padula, 2006. "Informal Credit Markets, Judicial Costs and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Firm Level Data," CSEF Working Papers 155, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    257. Rodriguez-Segura, Daniel, 2022. "A closer look at reading comprehension: Experimental evidence from Guatemala," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    258. Chiburis, Richard C., 2010. "Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 267-275, December.
    259. Semenova, Vira, 2025. "Generalized Lee bounds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    260. Bruno Arpino & Arnstein Aassve, 2013. "Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 355-385, February.
    261. Craig Gundersen & Brent Kreider & John Pepper & Valerie Tarasuk, 2017. "Food assistance programs and food insecurity: implications for Canada in light of the mixing problem," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1065-1087, May.
    262. Arthur Lewbel, 2018. "The Identification Zoo - Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 957, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2019.
    263. Fan, Yanqin & Park, Sang Soo, 2014. "Nonparametric inference for counterfactual means: Bias-correction, confidence sets, and weak IV," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 45-56.
    264. Lin, Zhongjian & Vella, Francis, 2021. "Selection and Endogenous Treatment Models with Social Interactions: An Application to the Impact of Exercise on Self-Esteem," IZA Discussion Papers 14167, IZA Network @ LISER.
    265. Stefan Boes & Stephan N�esch, 2009. "New Flight Regimes and Exposure to Aircraft Noise: Identifying Housing Price Effects Using a Ratio-of-Ratios Approach," SOI - Working Papers 0906, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    266. Alena Bičáková, 2017. "A Note on Selection and Gender Unemployment Gaps," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 428-438, December.
    267. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2018. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Papers 1812.11598, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    268. Grépin, Karen A. & Habyarimana, James & Jack, William, 2019. "Cash on delivery: Results of a randomized experiment to promote maternal health care in Kenya," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 15-30.
    269. Jose Miguel Abito & Cuicui Chen, 2021. "How much can we identify from repeated games?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1212-1222.
    270. Judea Pearl, 2003. "Statistics and causal inference: A review," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 12(2), pages 281-345, December.
    271. Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna, 2022. "Oktatási reformok hatása kérdőíves adatokon. Befolyásolják-e a reformok a részvételt, a lemorzsolódást és a válaszadást? [Education reforms as instrumental variables for education using survey data: effects on survey participation, attrition and n," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1298-1323.
    272. Lamo, Ana & Messina, Julián, 2010. "Formal education, mismatch and wages after transition: Assessing the impact of unobserved heterogeneity using matching estimators," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1086-1099, December.
    273. Gelbach, Jonah B., 2015. "Can we learn anything about pleading changes from existing data?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-86.
    274. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    275. Mark McGovern & David Canning & Till Bärnighausen, 2018. "Accounting for Non-Response Bias using Participation Incentives and Survey Design," CHaRMS Working Papers 18-02, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    276. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2005. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrics 0504006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    277. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
    278. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    279. François Gerard & Miikka Rokkanen & Christoph Rothe, 2016. "Bounds on Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable," NBER Working Papers 22892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    280. Lechner, Michael, 1997. "Mikroökonometrische Evaluationsstudien : Anmerkungen zu Theorie und Praxis," Discussion Papers 555, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    281. Mogstad, Magne & Torgovitsky, Alexander & Walters, Christopher R., 2024. "Policy evaluation with multiple instrumental variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 243(1).
    282. Sonja Radas & Drazen Prelec, 2019. "Whose data can we trust: How meta-predictions can be used to uncover credible respondents in survey data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, December.
    283. Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Identification Design," Papers 2511.18647, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    284. Casey Quinn, 2005. "Generalisable regression methods for costeffectiveness using copulas," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 05/13, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    285. Claudia Noack, 2021. "Sensitivity of LATE Estimates to Violations of the Monotonicity Assumption," Papers 2106.06421, arXiv.org.
    286. Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2007. "Identification and Estimation of Casual Mechanisms and Net Effects of a Treatment," Working Papers 0706, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    287. Kieran Marray, 2024. "Estimating Spillovers from Sampled Connections," Papers 2410.17154, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    288. Andres Santos, 2020. "A Comment on: “On the Informativeness of Descriptive Statistics for Structural Estimates” by Isaiah Andrews, Matthew Gentzkow, and Jesse M. Shapiro," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2271-2276, November.

  80. Manski, C.F., 1989. "Regression," Working papers 8917, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Mitnik & Sunyoung Baek, 2013. "The Kumaraswamy distribution: median-dispersion re-parameterizations for regression modeling and simulation-based estimation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 177-192, February.
    2. Kemp, Gordon C.R. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012. "Regression towards the mode," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 92-101.
    3. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1999. "The Art of Labormetrics," NBER Working Papers 6927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brownstone, David, 1997. "Multiple Imputation Methodology for Missing Data, Non-Random Response, and Panel Attrition," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2zd6w6hh, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Sanghamitra Das & Ramprasad Sengupta, 2004. "Projection pursuit regression and disaggregate productivity effects: the case of the Indian blast furnaces," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    7. Bera Anil K. & Galvao Antonio F. & Montes-Rojas Gabriel V. & Park Sung Y., 2016. "Asymmetric Laplace Regression: Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy and Quantile Regression," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 79-101, January.
    8. Christian Pedersen & Stephen Satchell, 2003. "Can NN-algorithms and macroeconomic data improve OLS industry returns forecasts?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 273-289.
    9. Bassol3, Leandre & Essama-Nssah, B. & Paul,Saumik, 2010. "Accounting for heterogeneity in growth incidence in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5464, The World Bank.
    10. Essama-Nssah, B. & Bassole, Leandre, 2010. "A counterfactual analysis of the poverty impact of economic growth in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5249, The World Bank.
    11. Bera, A. K. & Galvao Jr, A. F. & Montes-Rojas, G. & Park, S. Y., 2010. "Which quantile is the most informative? Maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and quantile regression," Working Papers 10/08, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    12. Kim, Kwansoo & Foltz, Jeremy D. & Barham, Bradford L., 2002. "Are There Synergies Or Tradeoffs Between Articles And Patents In University Ag-Biotech Research," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19649, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

  81. Manski, C.F. & Thompson, S.T., 1989. "Estimation Of Best Predictors Of Benary Response," Working papers 367, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Toru Kitagawa & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    3. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society.
    4. Toru Kitagawa & Shosei Sakaguchi & Aleksey Tetenov, 2021. "Constrained Classification and Policy Learning," Papers 2106.12886, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Toru Kitagawa & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice," CeMMAP working papers 10/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Yu Xie & Charles F. Manski, 1989. "The Logit Model and Response-Based Samples," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 17(3), pages 283-302, February.
    7. Elliott, Graham & Lieli, Robert P., 2013. "Predicting binary outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 15-26.
    8. Caudill, Steven B., 2003. "Predicting discrete outcomes with the maximum score estimator: the case of the NCAA men's basketball tournament," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 313-317.
    9. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Le, Kien T. & Seah, Kiat Ying, 2012. "A household-level decomposition of the white–black homeownership gap," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 52-62.
    10. Christopher Vahl & Qing Kang, 2015. "Analysis of an outcome-dependent enriched sample: hypothesis tests," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 24(3), pages 387-409, September.
    11. Alastair Scott & Chris Wild, 2002. "On the robustness of weighted methods for fitting models to case–control data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 207-219, May.
    12. Madden, Gary & Mayer, Walter & Wu, Chen & Tran, Thien, 2015. "The forecasting accuracy of models of post-award network deployment: An application of maximum score tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1153-1158.
    13. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yang, Yang, 2006. "Bagging binary and quantile predictors for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 465-497.
    14. Komarova, Tatiana, 2013. "Binary choice models with discrete regressors: Identification and misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 14-33.
    15. Tatiana Komarova, 2012. "Binary Choice Models with Discrete Regressors: Identification and Misspecification," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 559, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    16. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2020. "Fair Policy Targeting," Papers 2005.12395, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    17. Chen, Le-Yu & Lee, Sokbae, 2018. "Best subset binary prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 39-56.
    18. James Dawber & Nicola Salvati & Enrico Fabrizi & Nikos Tzavidis, 2022. "Expectile regression for multi‐category outcomes with application to small area estimation of labour force participation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 590-619, December.
    19. Mayer, Walter J. & Wu, Chen, 2007. "Note on optimal predictors of binary response," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 307-308, September.
    20. Yang, Chao & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Social interactions under incomplete information with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 65-83.
    21. Yang Li & Walter J. Mayer, 2007. "Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 571-582.

  82. Xie, Y. & Manski, C.F., 1989. "The Logic Model And Response-Based Samples," Working papers 372, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Xian-Jin & Pendergast, Jane & Clarke, William, 2008. "Increasing the power: A practical approach to goodness-of-fit test for logistic regression models with continuous predictors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2703-2713, January.
    2. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2020. "Causal Inference under Outcome-Based Sampling with Monotonicity Assumptions," Papers 2004.08318, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    3. Tao Xu, 2022. "The Effect of Health Change on Long-Term Settlement Intentions of International Immigrants in New Destination Countries: Evidence from Yiwu City in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Huang, Qing & Wang, Ruixin & Xie, Yu & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2025. "Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Kroneberg, Clemens & Stocké, Volker & Yaish, Meir, 2006. "Norms or rationality? : The rescue of jews, electoral participation, and educational decisions," Papers 06-09, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    7. Duarte Trigueiros, 2019. "Improving the effectiveness of predictors in accounting-based models," Journal of Applied Accounting Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(2), pages 207-226, June.
    8. Tran Thu & Moritaka Masahiro & Liu Ran & Fukuda Susumu, 2018. "Information effect on consumer adoption for a new beef brand in the Vietnamese market: prior knowledge, appealing the brand distinction, differentiation and similarity," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 13(3), pages 1014-1034, September.
    9. Vairetti, Carla & Gennaro, Franco & Maldonado, Sebastián, 2024. "Propensity score oversampling and matching for uplift modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(3), pages 1058-1069.
    10. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    11. Maalouf, Maher & Trafalis, Theodore B., 2011. "Robust weighted kernel logistic regression in imbalanced and rare events data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 168-183, January.
    12. J.S. Cramer, 2000. "Scoring Bank Loans that may go wrong: A Case Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-090/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Matthew Roskruge & Jacques Poot & Laura King, 2016. "Social capital, entrepreneurship and living standards: differences between immigrants and the native born," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 1607, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    14. Alastair Scott & Chris Wild, 2002. "On the robustness of weighted methods for fitting models to case–control data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 207-219, May.
    15. Jensen, Paul H. & Palangkaraya, Alfons & Webster, Elizabeth, 2015. "Trust and the market for technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 340-356.
    16. Clemens Kroneberg & Meir Yaish & Volker Stocké, 2010. "Norms and Rationality in Electoral Participation and in the Rescue of Jews in WWII," Rationality and Society, , vol. 22(1), pages 3-36, February.
    17. Ahmed, M.S. & Attouch, M.K. & Dabo-Niang, S., 2018. "Binary functional linear models under choice-based sampling," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 134-152.
    18. Christopher Paul & William Mason & Daniel McCaffrey & Sarah Fox, 2008. "A cautionary case study of approaches to the treatment of missing data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(3), pages 351-372, July.
    19. Pamela Giustinelli, 2016. "Group Decision Making With Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child–Parent Choice Of The High School Track," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 573-602, May.
    20. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2020. "Causal inference in case-control studies," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    21. Abhirup Chakrabarti & Will Mitchell, 2013. "The Persistent Effect of Geographic Distance in Acquisition Target Selection," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(6), pages 1805-1826, December.
    22. Yossi Perelman & Meir Yaish & Benjamin Bental, 2019. "The price of religiosity: Enticing young Haredi men into secular academic studies," Rationality and Society, , vol. 31(2), pages 129-151, May.
    23. Avanzini, Diego & Martı́nez, Juan Francisco & Pérez, Vı́ctor, 2020. "Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    24. Stock, Ruth Maria & von Hippel, Eric & Gillert, Nils Lennart, 2016. "Impacts of personality traits on consumer innovation success," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 757-769.
    25. Federico Varese & Meir Yaish, 2000. "The Importance Of Being Asked," Rationality and Society, , vol. 12(3), pages 307-334, August.

  83. Manski, C.F., 1989. "The Use Of Intentions Data To Predict Behaviour : A Best- Case Analysis," Working papers 8905, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Kankaanranta, Terhi & Nummi, Tapio & Vainiomaki, Jari & Halila, Hannu & Hyppola, Harri & Isokoski, Mauri & Kujala, Santero & Kumpusalo, Esko & Mattila, Kari & Virjo, Irma & Vanska, Jukka & Rissanen, P, 2007. "The role of job satisfaction, job dissatisfaction and demographic factors on physicians' intentions to switch work sector from public to private," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 50-64, September.
    3. Steven N. Durlauf, 2002. "On the Empirics of Social Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 459-479, November.
    4. Xavi Ramos & Christian Schluter, 2003. "Subjective Income Expectations, Canonical Models and Income Risk," Working Papers wpdea0310, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dhori Kule & Ahmet Mançellari & Harry Papapanagos & Stefan Qirici & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "The Causes and Consequences of Albanian Emigration during Transition: Evidence from Micro Data," Studies in Economics 0004, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Audrey Light & Kathleen McGarry, 2003. "Why Parents Play Favorites: Explanations for Unequal Bequests," Working Papers 03-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," JCPR Working Papers 273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    10. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 5690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dean R. Hyslop & Guido W. Imbens, 2000. "Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Tomas Philipson, 1997. "Observational Agency and Supply-Side Econometrics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Alan L. Gustman & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1990. "Pensions and the U.S. Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 3331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Perceptions of economic vulnerability: First evidence from the survey of economic expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1069-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    16. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Zaiceva, Anzelika & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Scale, Diversity, and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 3595, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Frijters, Paul & de New, John & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
    20. Eklöf, M. & Weeks, M., 2004. "‘Estimation of Discrete Choice Models Using DCM for Ox’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0427, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Maria G. Perozek, 2005. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Ramos, Xavier & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, IZA Network @ LISER.
    24. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2003. ""Will Social Security Be There For You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits," NBER Working Papers 9798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Silke Uebelmesser, 2005. "To go or not to go: Emigration from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1626, CESifo.
    26. Richard Disney & Tanner, Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

  84. Manski, Charles F., 1986. "Ordinal Utility Models Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty," SSRI Workshop Series 292682, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Luciano de Castro & Antonio F. Galvao & Jeong Yeol Kim & José Olmo, 2021. "Experiments on portfolio selection: a comparison between quantile preferences and expected utility decision models," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2021-68, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    2. Luciano de Castro & Antonio F. Galvao & David M. Kaplan & Xin Liu, 2017. "Smoothed GMM for quantile models," Papers 1707.03436, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    3. David M. Kaplan & Wei Zhao, 2025. "Comparing latent inequality with ordinal data," Papers 2501.05338, arXiv.org.
    4. Ashwin Kambhampati, 2026. "Lexicographic Robustness and the Efficiency of Optimal Mechanisms," Papers 2604.06105, arXiv.org.
    5. Xin Liu & Luciano de Castro & Antonio F. Galvao, 2026. "A Smoothed GMM for Dynamic Quantile Preferences Estimation," Papers 2601.20853, arXiv.org.
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    1. Weiren Wang, 1997. "Semi-parametric estimation of the effect of health on labour force participation of married women," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 325-329.
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    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    5. Mayer, Walter J. & Dorsey, Robert E., 1998. "Maximum score estimation of disequilibrium models and the role of anticipatory price-setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-24, August.
    6. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Kalouptsidis, N. & Koutroumbas, K. & Psaraki, V., 2007. "Classification methods for random utility models with i.i.d. disturbances under the most probable alternative rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(3), pages 1778-1794, February.
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    1. Podgursky, Michael & Monroe, Ryan & Watson, Donald, 2004. "The academic quality of public school teachers: an analysis of entry and exit behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 507-518, October.
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    4. Juan Cándido Gómez Gallego & María Concepción Pérez Cárceles & Laura Nieto Torrejón (ed.), 2017. "Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación," E-books Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación, Asociación de Economía de la Educación, edition 1, volume 12, number 12, June.
    5. Fullard, Joshua, 2025. "Labour Market Expectations and Occupational Choice: Evidence from Teaching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
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    6. Pietro Tebaldi & Alexander Torgovitsky & Hanbin Yang, 2019. "Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange," NBER Working Papers 25827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    189. Zhang, Zhengyu & Zhu, Pingfang, 2013. "An alternative simple quantile regression estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 163-166.
    190. Chen, Le-Yu & Lee, Sokbae, 2018. "Best subset binary prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 39-56.
    191. Yu-Yen Ku & Tze-Yu Yen, 2016. "Heterogeneous Effect of Financial Leverage on Corporate Performance: A Quantile Regression Analysis of Taiwanese Companies," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-33, September.
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    193. Nathan Kallus, 2025. "Semiparametric Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Single-Index Model," Papers 2512.21917, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    194. Patrik Buggenberger & Richard Smith, 2005. "Generalized empirical likelihood tests in time series models with potential identification failure," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    195. Khan, Shakeeb & Ponomareva, Maria & Tamer, Elie, 2016. "Identification of panel data models with endogenous censoring," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 57-75.
    196. Rosen, Adam M., 2012. "Set identification via quantile restrictions in short panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 127-137.
    197. Yuanyuan Wan & Haiqing Xu, 2013. "Inference in Semiparametric Binary Response Models with Interval Data," Working Papers tecipa-492, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    198. Schwiebert, Jörg, 2012. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Binary Choice Model with Sample Selection," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-505, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    199. Buchholz, Nicholas & Shum, Matthew & Xu, Haiqing, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 312-327.
    200. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    201. Samuele Centorrino & Jean-Pierre Florens, 2014. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Estimation of Binary Response Models," Department of Economics Working Papers 14-07, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    202. Gao, Wayne Yuan, 2020. "Nonparametric identification in index models of link formation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 399-413.
    203. Paolo Frumento & Nicola Salvati, 2021. "Parametric modeling of quantile regression coefficient functions with count data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(4), pages 1237-1258, October.
    204. Lewbel, Arthur, 2000. "Semiparametric qualitative response model estimation with unknown heteroscedasticity or instrumental variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 145-177, July.
    205. Kneib, Thomas & Silbersdorff, Alexander & Säfken, Benjamin, 2023. "Rage Against the Mean – A Review of Distributional Regression Approaches," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 99-123.
    206. Iglesias Emma M, 2010. "First and Second Order Asymptotic Bias Correction of Nonlinear Estimators in a Non-Parametric Setting and an Application to the Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, May.
    207. Yoshihiko Nishiyama & Peter Robinson, 2004. "The bootstrap and the Edgeworth correction for semiparametric averaged derivatives," CeMMAP working papers CWP12/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    208. Chen, Songnian, 2010. "An integrated maximum score estimator for a generalized censored quantile regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 90-98, March.
    209. Zhang, Jun & Lin, Bingqing & Zhou, Yan, 2021. "Kernel density estimation for partial linear multivariate responses models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    210. Songnian Chen & Yahong Zhou, 2005. "A Simple Matching Method for Estimating Sample Selection Models Using Experimental Data," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 155-167, May.
    211. Stéphane Bonhomme & Martin Weidner, 2020. "Posterior average effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP49/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    212. Huang, J u-Chin & Nychka, Douglas W., 2000. "A nonparametric multiple choice method within the random utility framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 207-225, August.
    213. Alyssa Carlson, 2020. "Relaxing Conditional Independence in an Endogenous Binary Response Model," Working Papers 2008, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    214. Ferrara, Gerardo & Kim, Jun Sung & Koo, Bonsoo & Liu, Zijun, 2021. "Counterparty choice in the UK credit default swap market: An empirical matching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-74.
    215. Su, Jiun-Hua, 2021. "Model selection in utility-maximizing binary prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 96-124.
    216. Arthur Lewbel, 2018. "The Identification Zoo - Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 957, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2019.
    217. Chen, Pian & Velamuri, Malathi, 2009. "Misspecification and Heterogeneity in Single-Index, Binary Choice Models," MPRA Paper 15722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    218. Jiarui Liu, 2021. "Sequential Search Models: A Pairwise Maximum Rank Approach," Papers 2104.13865, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    219. Barros, Ricardo Paes de, 2010. "The Impact of Social Interventions: Nonparametric Identification from Choice-Based Samples," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(2), December.
    220. Jeremy Fox, 2016. "Estimating Matching Games with Transfers," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    221. Shaikh, Azeem M. & Vytlacil, Edward, 2008. "Endogenous binary choice models with median restrictions: A comment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 23-28, January.
    222. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    223. Takahiro ITO, 2024. "Binary and Ordered Response Models in Randomized Experiments: Applications of the Resampling-Based Maximum Likelihood Method," GSICS Working Paper Series 42, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    224. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, 2006. "Improving The Efficiency And Robustness Of The Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator," Departmental Working Papers 2004-01, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    225. Joel L. Horowitz & N. E. Savin, 2001. "Binary Response Models: Logits, Probits and Semiparametrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 43-56, Fall.
    226. Kenta Takatsu & Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla, 2025. "Bridging Root-$n$ and Non-standard Asymptotics: Adaptive Inference in M-Estimation," Papers 2501.07772, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    227. Jeff Racine, 2002. "Generalized Semiparametric Binary Prediction," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 117-134, May.
    228. Riddel, Mary, 2011. "Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 341-354, May.
    229. Xi Wang & Songnian Chen, 2022. "Partial Identification and Estimation of Semiparametric Ordered Response Models with Interval Regressor Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 830-849, August.
    230. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault Eric, 1987. "Consistent m-estimators in a semi-parametric model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8720, CEPREMAP.
    231. Guo, Jing & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Zhengyu, 2022. "Identification and estimation of a heteroskedastic censored regression model with random coefficient dummy endogenous regressors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    232. Joel L. Horowitz, 2018. "Bootstrap methods in econometrics," CeMMAP working papers CWP53/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

  89. C. F. Manski, "undated". "Educational choice (vouchers) and social mobility," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 972-92, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.

    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Barrow & Cecilia Elena Rouse, 2002. "Using Market Valuation to Assess Public School Spending," NBER Working Papers 9054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Akyol, Metin, 2016. "Do educational vouchers reduce inequality and inefficiency in education?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 149-167.
    3. Levon Barseghyan & Damon Clark & Stephen Coate, 2014. "Public School Choice: An Economic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Caroline M. Hoxby, 2000. "Does Competition among Public Schools Benefit Students and Taxpayers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1209-1238, December.
    5. Bastos, Paulo & Cristia, Julian P., 2010. "Entry and Quality Choices in Child Care Markets," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3029, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Appleton, Simon, "undated". "User Fees, Expenditure Restructuring and Voucher Systems in Education," WIDER Working Papers 295459, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. McMillan, Robert, 2005. "Erratum to "Competition, incentives, and public school productivity"," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1133-1154, June.
    8. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Urquiola, Miguel, 2006. "The effects of generalized school choice on achievement and stratification: Evidence from Chile's voucher program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1477-1503, September.
    9. Rajashri Chakrabarti, 2005. "Can Increasing Private School Participation and Monetary Loss in a Voucher Program Affect Public School Performance? Evidence from Milwaukee," Public Economics 0512003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Selod, Harris & Zenou, Yves, 2003. "Private versus public schools in post-Apartheid South African cities: theory and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 351-394, August.
    11. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
    12. Rajashri Chakrabarti, 2008. "Impact of voucher design on public school performance: evidence from Florida and Milwaukee voucher programs," Staff Reports 315, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Caroline Minter Hoxby, 1996. "Are Efficiency and Equity in School Finance Substitutes or Complements?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 51-72, Fall.
    14. J. Stephen Ferris & Edwin G. West, 2002. "Education Vouchers, the Peer Group Problem, and the Question of Dropouts," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 774-793, April.
    15. Green, Colin P. & Navarro-Paniagua, María & Ximénez-de-Embún, Domingo P. & Mancebón, María-Jesús, 2014. "School choice and student wellbeing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 139-150.
    16. Kuzey YILMAZ & Eric HANUSHEK & Sinan SARPCA, 2010. "School Choice: Traditional Mechanisms and Extending the PoorÂ’s Ability to Choose," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100048, EcoMod.
    17. Pablo González & Alejandra Mizala & Pilar Romaguera, 2002. "Recursos diferenciados a la educación subvencionada en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 150, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    18. Lisa Barrow & Cecilia Elena Rouse, 2000. "Using Market Valuation to Assess the Importance and Efficiency of Public School Spending," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1446, Econometric Society.
    19. William D. Savedoff, 1997. "Social Services Viewed Through New Lenses: Agency Problems in Education and Health in Latin America," Research Department Publications 3017, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Lankford, Hamilton & Wyckoff, James, 2001. "Who Would Be Left Behind by Enhanced Private School Choice?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 288-312, September.
    21. Takashi Oshio & Shinpei Sano & Yuko Ueno & Kouichiro Mino, 2008. "Evaluations by parents of education reforms: Evidence from a parent survey in Japan," Discussion Papers 0821, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    22. Hanushek Eric A & Sarpça Sinan & Yilmaz Kuzey, 2011. "Private Schools and Residential Choices: Accessibility, Mobility, and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34, August.
    23. Edwin G. West & Zhiqi Chen, 2000. "Selective versus Universal Vouchers: Modelling Median Voter Preferences in Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1520-1534, December.
    24. Graham, Bryan S. & Imbens, Guido W. & Ridder, Geert, 2025. "Measuring the effects of segregation in the presence of social spillovers: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PB).
    25. Holger Sieg & Dennis Epple & Richard Romano, 2003. "Peer effects, financial aid and selection of students into colleges and universities: an empirical analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 501-525.
    26. Mar�a J. Luengo Prado & Oscar Volij, 1999. "Public Education, Communities, and Vouchers," Economic theory and game theory 008, Oscar Volij.
    27. Benjamin Eden, 1993. "How to Subsidize Education and Achieve Voluntary Integration: An Analysis of Voucher Systems," Bank of Israel Working Papers 1993.01, Bank of Israel.
    28. Dennis N. Epple & Richard Romano, 2003. "Neighborhood Schools, Choice, and the Distribution of Educational Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of School Choice, pages 227-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Maria Marta Ferreyra, 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Private School Vouchers in Multidistrict Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 789-817, June.
    30. Francisco Gallego, 2002. "Competencia y Resultados Educativos: Teoría y Evidencia para Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 217, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    31. McEwan, Patrick J., 2003. "Peer effects on student achievement: evidence from Chile," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 131-141, April.
    32. Paul Teske & Mark Schneider, 2001. "What Research Can Tell Policymakers about School Choice," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 609-631.
    33. Bastos, Paulo & Cristia, Julian, 2012. "Supply and quality choices in private child care markets: Evidence from São Paulo," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 242-255.
    34. Joseph G. Altonji & Ching-I Huang & Christopher R. Taber, 2010. "Estimating the Cream Skimming Effect of School Choice," NBER Working Papers 16579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Gabor Kertesi & Gabor Kezdi, 2013. "School segregation, school choice and educational policies in 100 Hungarian towns," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1312, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    36. Gazmuri, Ana M., 2024. "School segregation in the presence of student sorting and cream-skimming: Evidence from a school voucher reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    37. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "When Schools Compete, How Do They Compete? An Assessment of Chile's Nationwide School Voucher Program," NBER Working Papers 10008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Thomas J. Nechyba, 2000. "Mobility, Targeting, and Private-School Vouchers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 130-146, March.
    39. McMillan, Robert, 2004. "Competition, incentives, and public school productivity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1871-1892, August.
    40. Pablo González, 2002. "Lecciones de la investigación económica sobre el rol del sector privado en educación," Documentos de Trabajo 117, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    41. William G. Howell, 2004. "Dynamic selection effects in means-tested, urban school voucher programs," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 225-250.
    42. Tomori, Françeska, 2018. "Mixed Duopoly in Education with Vouchers," Working Papers 2072/306548, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    43. Edmark, Karin & Hussain, Iftikhar & Haelermans, Carla, 2024. "Unpacking the impact of voucher schools: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2024:17, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    44. Thomas J. Nechyba, 1999. "A Model of Multiple Districts and Private Schools: The Role of Mobility, Targeting, and Private School Vouchers," NBER Working Papers 7239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. O'Shaughnessy, Terry, 2007. "Parental choice and school quality when peer and scale effects matter," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, August.

  90. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Perceptions of economic vulnerability: First evidence from the survey of economic expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1069-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.

    Cited by:

    1. Jingxiao Zhang & Haiyan Xie & Klaus Schmidt & Hui Li, 2015. "A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.

Articles

  1. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2023. "Statistical decision theory respecting stochastic dominance," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 447-469, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Manski, Charles F., 2023. "Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 647-663.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy & Atheendar S. Venkataramani, 2023. "Using measures of race to make clinical predictions: Decision making, patient health, and fairness," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(35), pages 2303370120-, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2022. "Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 187-221.

    Cited by:

    1. Kerwin, Jason & Pandey, Divya, 2023. "Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 16478, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    4. Delavande, Adeline & Del Bono, Emilia & Holford, Angus, 2025. "Imprecise health beliefs and health behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Miller, Grant & de Paula, Áureo & Valente, Christine, 2025. "Subjective expectations and demand for contraception," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    6. Jane Greve & Morten Saaby & Anders Rosdahl & Vibeke Tornhøj Christensen, 2021. "Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(2), pages 163-191, June.
    7. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.
    8. Erdenesuren, Lkhagvaa, 2023. "Expectation, anticipation, and identification : Essays on subjective expectations and economic decision-making," Other publications TiSEM b9653e21-b96f-4bbe-8862-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander, 2025. "Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys," Discussion Papers 22/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner & Yuxi Yao, 2025. "The Role of Nonpecuniary Considerations: Location Decisions of College Graduates From Low‐Income Backgrounds," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(2), pages 903-931, May.

  5. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Patient‐centered appraisal of race‐free clinical risk assessment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 2109-2114, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Dominitz, Jeff & Manski, Charles F., 2022. "Minimax-regret sample design in anticipation of missing data, with application to panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 104-114.

    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kato & Masaaki Imaizumi & Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2023. "Asymptotically Optimal Fixed-Budget Best Arm Identification with Variance-Dependent Bounds," Papers 2302.02988, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

  7. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Manski, Charles F. & Sanstad, Alan H., 2022. "Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. V. Joseph Hotz & Christopher R. Bollinger & Tatiana Komarova & Charles F. Manski & Robert A. Moffitt & Denis Nekipelov & Aaron Sojourner & Bruce D. Spencer, 2022. "Balancing data privacy and usability in the federal statistical system," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(31), pages 2104906119-, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Wanyi & Wang, Yiying & Wu, Dongjing & Yin, Xingqiang, 2024. "Can the establishment of a personal data protection system promote corporate innovation?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(9).

  10. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2021. "Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 181-192.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Valentyn Litvin & Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Evaluating the maximum regret of statistical treatment rules with sample data on treatment response," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(1), pages 97-122, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Amos Golan & Jeffrey Perloff, 2025. "An Information-Theoretic Approach to Partially Identified Problems," Working Papers 20205-009, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.

  13. Manski, Charles F., 2020. "Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 341-356, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Besley, Timothy & Stern, Nicholas, 2020. "The economics of lockdown," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107073, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jean Czerlinski Whitmore Ortega, 2022. "Learning with insufficient data: a multi-armed bandit perspective on covid-19 interventions," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 21(2), pages 183-193, November.
    4. Rebecca Forman & Elias Mossialos, 2021. "The EU Response to COVID‐19: From Reactive Policies to Strategic Decision‐Making," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(S1), pages 56-68, September.
    5. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Feeling Uncertainty during the Lockdown That Commenced in March 2020 in Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
    7. Loïc Berger & Nicolas Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Itzhak Gilboa & Lars Peter Hansen & Christopher Jarvis & Massimo Marinacci & Richard A. Smith, 2021. "Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic," Post-Print hal-02907328, HAL.
    8. Zhaohui Su, 2021. "Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Dimitris Zavras, 2021. "Studying Satisfaction with the Restriction Measures Implemented in Greece during the First COVID-19 Pandemic Wave," World, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-12, July.

  14. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Judicial and Clinical Decision-Making under Uncertainty," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 176(1), pages 33-43.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.

  15. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Towards Reasonable Patient Care Under Uncertainty," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 227-245, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Günther Fink & Margaret McConnell & Bich Diep Nguyen, 2021. "Learn or react? An experimental study of preventive health decision making," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 206-237, March.

  16. Manski, Charles F., 2020. "The lure of incredible certitude," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 216-245, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2019. "Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 305-311, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    3. Timothy B. Armstrong & Shu Shen, 2023. "Inference on optimal treatment assignments," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 471-500, October.
    4. Yuchen Hu & Henry Zhu & Emma Brunskill & Stefan Wager, 2024. "Minimax-Regret Sample Selection in Randomized Experiments," Papers 2403.01386, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    5. Seungjin Han & Julius Owusu & Youngki Shin, 2022. "Statistical Treatment Rules under Social Interaction," Papers 2209.09077, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Azevedo, Eduardo M. & Mao, David & Montiel Olea, José Luis & Velez, Amilcar, 2023. "The A/B testing problem with Gaussian priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    8. John Mullahy, 2018. "Treatment Effects with Multiple Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 25307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.

  18. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 296-304, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    3. Kitagawa, Toru & Wang, Guanyi, 2023. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 109-131.
    4. Weili Ding, 2020. "Laboratory experiments can pre-design to address power and selection issues," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(2), pages 125-138, December.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Remarks on statistical inference for statistical decisions," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Manski, Charles F., 2023. "Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 647-663.
    8. Bhatt, Monica & Heller, Sara & Kapustin, Max & Bertrand, Marianne & Blattman, Christopher, 2023. "Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago," SocArXiv dks29, Center for Open Science.
    9. Azevedo, Eduardo M. & Mao, David & Montiel Olea, José Luis & Velez, Amilcar, 2023. "The A/B testing problem with Gaussian priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    10. Brendon P. Andrews, 2023. "Economic Evaluation under Ambiguity and Structural Uncertainties," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    12. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    13. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  19. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(16), pages 7634-7641, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Franziska & Mattauch, Linus & Klenert, David & O'Callaghan, Brian, 2020. "Five lessons from COVID-19 for advancing climate change mitigation," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    2. D'Alberto, Riccardo & Zavalloni, Matteo & Raggi, Meri & Viaggi, Davide, 2021. "A Statistical Matching approach to reproduce the heterogeneity of willingness to pay in benefit transfer," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Yuxue Yang & Xuejiao Tan & Yafei Shi & Jun Deng, 2023. "What are the core concerns of policy analysis? A multidisciplinary investigation based on in-depth bibliometric analysis," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Minnich, Aljoscha & Roggenkamp, Hauke & Lange, Andreas, 2024. "Ambiguity attitudes and surprises: Experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Ilaria Benedetti & Gianni Betti & Federico Crescenzi, 2020. "Measuring Child Poverty and Its Uncertainty: A Case Study of 33 European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Kikuko Shoyama, 2021. "Assessment of Land-Use Scenarios at a National Scale Using Intensity Analysis and Figure of Merit Components," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, April.
    7. Herzog, Bodo, 2019. "Optimal policy under uncertainty and rational inattention," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 444-449.
    8. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, IZA Network @ LISER.

  20. Charles F. Manski & Anat R. Tambur & Michael Gmeiner, 2019. "Predicting kidney transplant outcomes with partial knowledge of HLA mismatch," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(41), pages 20339-20345, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    2. Charles F Manski & Michael Gmeiner & Anat Tamburc, 2021. "Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem," Papers 2102.11334, arXiv.org.
    3. Sheyu Li & Valentyn Litvin & Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups," Papers 2208.03381, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    4. Itai Ashlagi & Alvin E. Roth, 2021. "Kidney Exchange: An Operations Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5455-5478, September.

  21. Rachel Cassidy & Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(46), pages 22990-22997, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Cordier, J.; & Salvi, I.; & Steinbeck, V.; & Geissler, A.; & Vogel, J.;, 2023. "Is rapid recovery always the best recovery? - Developing a machine learning approach for optimal assignment rules under capacity constraints for knee replacement patients," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/08, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Michael Allan Ribers & Hannes Ullrich, 2020. "Machine Predictions and Human Decisions with Variation in Payoffs and Skill," Papers 2011.11017, arXiv.org.
    3. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Delavande, Adeline & Del Bono, Emilia & Holford, Angus, 2025. "Imprecise health beliefs and health behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

  22. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2018. "How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 232-244, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Patient‐centered appraisal of race‐free clinical risk assessment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 2109-2114, October.
    2. Valentyn Litvin, 2020. "When ignorance is bliss: Intentional agnosticism in drug approval," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 185-194, February.
    3. Charles F. Manski & Eytan Sheshinski, 2024. "The Subtlety of Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality," Papers 2410.13658, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    4. Dahlstrand Rudin, Amanda, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2023. "Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose," Papers 2305.17206, arXiv.org.
    6. Anirban Basu, 2018. "Comment: Manski's views on patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1422-1424, October.
    7. Emma McIntosh, 2018. "Comment: Decentralized decision making through adaptive minimax regret—Complex yet intuitively appealing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1428-1430, October.
    8. Juerg Schweri, 2021. "Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 544-563, March.
    9. Greve, Jane & Kristensen, Søren Rud & Lydiksen, Nis, 2023. "Patient and peer: Guideline design and expert response," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. John Mullahy, 2018. "Treatment Effects with Multiple Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 25307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. David Epstein, 2019. "Beyond the cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 801-807, June.
    12. Brendon P. Andrews, 2023. "Economic Evaluation under Ambiguity and Structural Uncertainties," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    13. Per Magnus Mæhle & Ingrid Kristine Small Hanto & Sigbjørn Smeland, 2020. "Practicing Integrated Care Pathways in Norwegian Hospitals: Coordination through Industrialized Standardization, Value Chains, and Quality Management or an Organizational Equivalent to Improvised Jazz Standards," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-32, December.
    14. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    15. David Glynn & John Giardina & Julia Hatamyar & Ankur Pandya & Marta Soares & Noemi Kreif, 2024. "Integrating decision modeling and machine learning to inform treatment stratification," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1772-1792, August.
    16. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Luca Panzone & Guy Garrod & Felice Adinolfi & Jorgelina Di Pasquale, 2022. "Molecular marketing, personalised information and willingness‐to‐pay for functional foods: Vitamin D enriched eggs," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 666-689, September.
    18. Amanda Dahlstrand, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," CEP Discussion Papers dp1889, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.
    20. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  24. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Credible ecological inference for medical decisions with personalized risk assessment," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 541-569, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    2. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2025. "Linear Regressions with Combined Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 12270, CESifo.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    4. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Gaillac, Christophe & Maurel, Arnaud, 2025. "Linear Regressions with Combined Data," IZA Discussion Papers 18276, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    6. Charles F Manski & Michael Gmeiner & Anat Tamburc, 2021. "Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem," Papers 2102.11334, arXiv.org.
    7. Sheyu Li & Valentyn Litvin & Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups," Papers 2208.03381, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    8. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," Papers 2501.02318, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    9. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    10. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    11. Bontemps, Christian & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Meddahi, Nour, 2025. "Functional ecological inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    12. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "Limit Regret in Binary Treatment Choice with Misspecified Plug-In Predictors and Decision Thresholds," Papers 2512.19824, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    13. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.

  25. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Boneva, T. & Golin, M. & Rauh, C., 2021. "Can Perceived Returns Explain Enrollment Gaps in Postgraduate Education?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2140, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Conti, G. & Giustinelli, P., 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Conti, Gabriella & Giustinelli, Pamela, 2023. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 16143, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Nina Drange & Kjetil Telle, 2018. "Universal child care and inequality of opportunity. Descriptive findings from Norway," Discussion Papers 880, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Decarolis, Francesco & Giuffrida, Leonardo & Iossa, Elisabetta & Mollisi, Vincenzo & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2019. "Bureaucratic competence and procurement outcomes," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-057, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Jane Greve & Morten Saaby & Anders Rosdahl & Vibeke Tornhøj Christensen, 2021. "Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(2), pages 163-191, June.
    9. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    10. Nik Stoop & Marijke Verpoorten & Peter Van Der Windt, 2019. "Artisanal or Industrial Conflict Minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," HiCN Working Papers 309, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. David M. Ramsey, 2020. "A Game Theoretic Model of Choosing a Valuable Good via a Short List Heuristic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," Working Papers wp382, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    13. Nick Huntington‐Klein, 2018. "College Choice As A Collective Decision," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1202-1219, April.
    14. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Pamela Giustinelli & Nicola Pavoni, 2017. "The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 93-120, April.
    16. Arpita Patnaik & Matthew J. Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2020. "College Majors," NBER Working Papers 27645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  27. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Response to commentaries on “Reasonable patient care under uncertainty”," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1431-1434, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Patient‐centered appraisal of race‐free clinical risk assessment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 2109-2114, October.
    2. Valentyn Litvin, 2020. "When ignorance is bliss: Intentional agnosticism in drug approval," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 185-194, February.
    3. Dahlstrand Rudin, Amanda, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2023. "Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose," Papers 2305.17206, arXiv.org.
    5. Anirban Basu, 2018. "Comment: Manski's views on patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1422-1424, October.
    6. Emma McIntosh, 2018. "Comment: Decentralized decision making through adaptive minimax regret—Complex yet intuitively appealing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1428-1430, October.
    7. Juerg Schweri, 2021. "Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 544-563, March.
    8. Greve, Jane & Kristensen, Søren Rud & Lydiksen, Nis, 2023. "Patient and peer: Guideline design and expert response," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. John Mullahy, 2018. "Treatment Effects with Multiple Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 25307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. David Epstein, 2019. "Beyond the cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 801-807, June.
    11. Brendon P. Andrews, 2023. "Economic Evaluation under Ambiguity and Structural Uncertainties," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    12. Per Magnus Mæhle & Ingrid Kristine Small Hanto & Sigbjørn Smeland, 2020. "Practicing Integrated Care Pathways in Norwegian Hospitals: Coordination through Industrialized Standardization, Value Chains, and Quality Management or an Organizational Equivalent to Improvised Jazz Standards," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-32, December.
    13. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    14. David Glynn & John Giardina & Julia Hatamyar & Ankur Pandya & Marta Soares & Noemi Kreif, 2024. "Integrating decision modeling and machine learning to inform treatment stratification," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1772-1792, August.
    15. Luca Panzone & Guy Garrod & Felice Adinolfi & Jorgelina Di Pasquale, 2022. "Molecular marketing, personalised information and willingness‐to‐pay for functional foods: Vitamin D enriched eggs," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 666-689, September.
    16. Amanda Dahlstrand, 2022. "Defying distance? The provision of services in the digital age," CEP Discussion Papers dp1889, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.
    18. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  28. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Optimize, satisfice, or choose without deliberation? A simple minimax-regret assessment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(2), pages 155-173, August.

    Cited by:

    1. da Silveira, Jaylson Jair & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2021. "Wage inequality as a source of endogenous macroeconomic fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    2. Yudistira Permana, 2020. "Explaining satisficing through risk aversion," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 503-525, November.
    3. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Zawojska, Ewa & Meade, Norman & da Motta, Ronaldo Seroa & Welsh, Mike & Ortiz, Ramon Arigoni, 2024. "On the inference about a willingness-to-pay distribution using contingent valuation data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Ardalan, Kavous, 2018. "Neurofinance versus the efficient markets hypothesis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 170-176.
    5. Erlend Dancke Sandorf & Danny Campbell & Caspar Chorus, 2022. "A simple satisficing model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(10), pages 1-30, October.
    6. Erlend Dancke Sandorf & Danny Campbell, 2019. "Accommodating satisficing behaviour in stated choice experiments," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(1), pages 133-162.
    7. John D. Hey & Yudistira Permana & Nuttaporn Rochanahastin, 2017. "When and how to satisfice: an experimental investigation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 337-353, October.
    8. Daniela Di Cagno & Werner Güth & Noemi Pace, 2021. "Experimental evidence of behavioral improvement by learning and intermediate advice," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 173-187, September.
    9. González-Valdés, Felipe & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2018. "The Stochastic Satisficing model: A bounded rationality discrete choice model," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-87.
    10. Daniela Cagno & Arianna Galliera & Werner Güth & Noemi Pace, 2018. "Behavioral patterns and reduction of sub-optimality: an experimental choice analysis," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(2), pages 151-177, August.
    11. Gonzalez-Valdes, Felipe & Heydecker, Benjamin G. & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2022. "Quantifying behavioural difference in latent class models to assess empirical identifiability: Analytical development and application to multiple heuristics," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

  29. Charles F. Manski & Max Tabord-Meehan, 2017. "Evaluating the maximum MSE of mean estimators with missing data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(3), pages 723-735, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  30. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2017. "More Data or Better Data? A Statistical Decision Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1583-1605.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    2. Masahiro Kato & Masaaki Imaizumi & Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2023. "Asymptotically Optimal Fixed-Budget Best Arm Identification with Variance-Dependent Bounds," Papers 2302.02988, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    3. Hirano, Keisuke & Porter, Jack R., 2020. "Asymptotic analysis of statistical decision rules in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 283-354, Elsevier.
    4. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    5. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Using Total Margin of Error to Account for Non-Sampling Error in Election Polls: The Case of Nonresponse," Papers 2407.19339, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    6. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Daniel Wilhelm, 2017. "Optimal data collection for randomized control trials," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Aristotelis Epanomeritakis & Davide Viviano, 2025. "Learning What to Learn: Experimental Design when Combining Experimental with Observational Evidence," Papers 2510.23434, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    8. Diego Cortes & Jeff Dominitz & Maximiliano Romero, 2025. "Partial Identification of Mean Achievement in ILSA Studies with Multi-Stage Stratified Sample Design and Student Non-Participation," Papers 2504.01209, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    9. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    11. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    12. Battistin,Erich & De Nadai,Michele & Krishnan,Nandini, 2020. "The Insights and Illusions of Consumption Measurements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9255, The World Bank.
    13. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Remarks on statistical inference for statistical decisions," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin Davies & Anirudh Sankar, 2025. "The value of conceptual knowledge," Papers 2509.09170, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    16. Pëllumb Reshidi & Alessandro Lizzeri & Leeat Yariv & Jimmy Chan & Wing Suen, 2021. "Individual and Collective Information Acquisition: An Experimental Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 9468, CESifo.
    17. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," Papers 2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    18. Dominitz, Jeff & Manski, Charles F., 2022. "Minimax-regret sample design in anticipation of missing data, with application to panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 104-114.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Giacomo Opocher, 2026. "Better Measurement or Larger Samples? Data Collection for Policy Learning with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Papers 2604.07181, arXiv.org.

  31. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Mandating vaccination with unknown indirect effects," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(3), pages 603-619, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Goodkin-Gold, Matthew & Kremer, Michael & Snyder, Christopher M. & Williams, Heidi, 2022. "Optimal vaccine subsidies for endemic diseases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Manh‐Hung Nguyen & Viet‐Ngu Hoang & Son Nghiem & Lan Anh Nguyen, 2025. "The Dynamic and Heterogeneous Effects of COVID‐19 Vaccination Mandates in the USA," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 518-536, March.
    3. Jelnov, Artyom & Jelnov, Pavel, 2021. "Vaccination Policy and Trust," IZA Discussion Papers 14947, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Julio Emilio Marco-Franco & Pedro Pita-Barros & Silvia González-de-Julián & Iryna Sabat & David Vivas-Consuelo, 2021. "Simplified Mathematical Modelling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Kitagawa, Toru & Wang, Guanyi, 2023. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 109-131.
    6. Matthew Goodkin-Gold & Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder & Heidi L. Williams, 2020. "Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Endemic and Epidemic Diseases," NBER Working Papers 28085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hippolyte d'Albis & Johanna Etner & Josselin Thuilliez, 2023. "Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(6), pages 1188-1211, December.
    8. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Cost–benefit analysis of age‐specific deconfinement strategies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(6), pages 1746-1771, December.
    9. Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Nghiem, Son & Nguyen, Lan Anh, 2024. "The Dynamic and Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates in the USA," TSE Working Papers 24-1598, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    10. V. Masson & S. Choi & A. Moore & M. Oak, 2018. "A model of informal favor exchange on networks," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 20(5), pages 639-656, October.
    11. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    12. Brendon P. Andrews, 2023. "Economic Evaluation under Ambiguity and Structural Uncertainties," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    13. Rabah Amir & Raouf Boucekkine, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue on new insights into economic epidemiology: Theory and policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 861-872, October.
    14. Luca Gori & Cristiana Mammana & Piero Manfredi & Elisabetta Michetti, 2022. "Economic development with deadly communicable diseases and public prevention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 912-943, October.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Response to commentaries on “Reasonable patient care under uncertainty”," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1431-1434, October.
    16. Ma, Ching-to Albert, 2024. "Vaccination equilibrium: Externality and efficiency," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 28446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  32. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Interpreting Point Predictions: Some Logical Issues," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 10(2-4), pages 238-261, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Patrick Schmidt & Matthias Katzfuss & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 728-743, September.
    3. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Manski, Charles F. & Sanstad, Alan H., 2022. "Minimax-regret climate policy with deep uncertainty in climate modeling and intergenerational discounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  33. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 293-301.

    Cited by:

    1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell & Johnny Runge, 2019. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. Zachary H. Seeskin, 2016. "Evaluating the Use of Commercial Data to Improve Survey Estimates of Property Taxes," CARRA Working Papers 2016-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    4. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    5. Rami V. Tabri & Mathew J. Elias, 2024. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance under Survey Nonresponse with Panel Data: Theory and an Evaluation of Poverty in Australia," Papers 2406.15702, arXiv.org.
    6. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    7. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    8. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2024. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 81-114, February.
    9. Mazzi Gian Luigi & Mitchell James & Carausu Florabela, 2021. "Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 289-316, June.
    10. Fakih, Ali & Makdissi, Paul & Marrouch, Walid & Tabri, Rami V. & Yazbeck, Myra, 2022. "A stochastic dominance test under survey nonresponse with an application to comparing trust levels in Lebanese public institutions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 342-358.
    11. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Andridge Rebecca R. & Little Roderick J.A., 2020. "Proxy Pattern-Mixture Analysis for a Binary Variable Subject to Nonresponse," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 36(3), pages 703-728, September.

  34. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-653, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Perišić Ana & Vanbelle Sophie, 2025. "Two-Group k-Adic Similarity Coefficients for Binary Classifiers," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 42(2), pages 391-413, July.
    2. Markandya, Anil & Arto, Iñaki & González-Eguino, Mikel & Román, Maria V., 2016. "Towards a green energy economy? Tracking the employment effects of low-carbon technologies in the European Union," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1342-1350.
    3. Peter ven de Ven & Anne Harrison & Barbara Fraumeni & Diane Coyle, 2017. "The Future of the National Accounts: Statistics and the Democratic Conversation My thanks to Dave Giles, James Grant, Magnus Henrekson, Johannes Hirata, Alice Nakamura, Peter Sinclair and Geoff Tily for comments on an early draft, and to participants," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 223-237, December.
    4. Dionissi Aliprantis & Daniel R. Carroll & Eric Young, 2021. "The Racial Wealth Gap and Access to Opportunity Neighborhoods," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(18), pages 1-5, September.
    5. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell & Johnny Runge, 2019. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Evan S. Totty & Thor Watson, 2026. "Privacy Protection and Accuracy: What Do We Know? Do We Know Things?? Let’s Find Out!," NBER Chapters, in: Data Privacy Protection and the Conduct of Applied Research: Methods, Approaches and New Findings, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    8. Ilaria Benedetti & Federico Crescenzi & Tiziana Laureti, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty for Poverty Indicators at Regional Level: The Case of Mediterranean Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Dionissi Aliprantis & Hal Martin, 2020. "Neighborhood Sorting Obscures Neighborhood Effects in the Opportunity Atlas," Working Papers 20-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Dichev, Ilia & Huang, Xinyi & Lee, Donald K.K & Zhao, Jianxin, 2023. "You have a point - but a point is not enough: The case for distributional forecasts of earnings," SocArXiv 4b2y8, Center for Open Science.
    11. Abe Dunn & Eric English & Kyle Hood & Lowell Mason & Brian Quistorff, 2024. "Expanding the Frontier of Economic Statistics Using Big Data: A Case Study of Regional Employment," Working Papers 24-37, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    12. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2021. "An empirical total survey error decomposition using data combination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 286-305.
    13. Aliprantis, Dionissi & Martin, Hal & Tauber, Kristen, 2024. "What determines the success of housing mobility programs?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Manuel Oechslin & Elias Steiner, 2022. "Statistical capacity and corrupt bureaucracies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 143-174, January.
    16. Feige, Edgar L., 2016. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the "Shadow Economy"," MPRA Paper 69271, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2016.
    17. Zachary H. Seeskin, 2016. "Evaluating the Use of Commercial Data to Improve Survey Estimates of Property Taxes," CARRA Working Papers 2016-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    19. M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    20. Minnich, Aljoscha & Roggenkamp, Hauke & Lange, Andreas, 2024. "Ambiguity attitudes and surprises: Experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    21. Battistin,Erich & De Nadai,Michele & Krishnan,Nandini, 2020. "The Insights and Illusions of Consumption Measurements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9255, The World Bank.
    22. Aljoscha Minnich & Hauke Roggenkamp & Andreas Lange, 2023. "Ambiguity Attitudes and Surprises: Experimental Evidence on Communicating New Information within a Large Population Sample," CESifo Working Paper Series 10783, CESifo.
    23. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560, June.
    24. Hobler, Stephan, 2022. "Multi-layered rational inattention and time-varying volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    25. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    26. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    27. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2024. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 81-114, February.
    28. Dionissi Aliprantis & Kristen Tauber, 2020. "Measuring Deaths from COVID-19," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(18), pages 1-7, July.
    29. Mazzi Gian Luigi & Mitchell James & Carausu Florabela, 2021. "Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 289-316, June.
    30. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY," Speech 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    31. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2017. "Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(3), pages 133-154, July.
    32. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
    33. Binswanger, Johannes & Oechslin, Manuel, 2020. "Better statistics, better economic policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    34. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    35. Ilaria Benedetti & Gianni Betti & Federico Crescenzi, 2020. "Measuring Child Poverty and Its Uncertainty: A Case Study of 33 European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-12, October.
    36. Dennis J. Fixler & Eva de Francisco & Danit Kanal, 2021. "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components," Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, vol. 101(1), pages 1-3, January.
    37. Herzog, Bodo, 2019. "Optimal policy under uncertainty and rational inattention," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 444-449.
    38. Ronald B. Davies & Joseph Francois, 2018. "Making the Worst of a Bad Situation: A Note on Irexit," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 455-462.

  35. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 359-376, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Identification of income–leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 145-174, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Hao Bo & Sebastian Galiani, 2019. "Assessing External Validity," NBER Working Papers 26422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    3. T. N. Srinivasan, 2014. "Development Process: A Manual or a Collection of Anecdotes?," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 418-423, November.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2020. "Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 265-296, January.
    6. Thiene, Mara & Swait, Joffre & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2017. "Choice set formation for outdoor destinations: The role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 152-173.
    7. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2015. "How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," NBER Working Papers 21701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Anthony Perl & Michael Howlett & M. Ramesh, 2018. "Policy-making and truthiness: Can existing policy models cope with politicized evidence and willful ignorance in a “post-fact” world?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 51(4), pages 581-600, December.
    9. Xeni Dassiou & Peter Langham & Charles Nancarrow & Alex Scharaschkin & Dan Ward, 2015. "Public service markets: their economics, institutional oversight and regulation," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(palcomms2), pages 15035-15035, November.
    10. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 293-301.
    11. Harris, Thomas R. & Grumstrup, Ethan, 2023. "Alternative Public Land Management Policy Impacts: Ranch and County Level," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2023, January.
    12. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Millimet, Daniel L. & Roy, Jayjit, 2015. "Multilateral environmental agreements and the WTO," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 20-23.
    14. Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Frederic Vermeulen, 2023. "Nonparametric Models in Consumer Behaviour," Working Papers ECARES 2023-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Huhr, Scott & Wulczyn, Fred, 2022. "Do intensive in-home services prevent placement?: A case study of Youth Villages’ Intercept® program," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2019. "How can randomised controlled trials help improve the design of the common agricultural policy?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(3), pages 473-493.
    17. Tan, Jonathan H.W. & Zhao, Zichen & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2025. "Inference from field and laboratory experiments in economics: empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Philipp Eisenhauer & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh & Janós Gabler, 2023. "Structural Models for Policy-Making," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_484, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    19. Richard ILes, 2017. "Government Doctor Absenteeism And Its Effects On Consumer Demand In Rural North India," Working Papers 2018-9, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    20. Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando & Grant, Sean & Miguel, Edward, 2018. "A Framework for Open Policy Analysis," MetaArXiv jnyqh, Center for Open Science.
    21. Manganelli, Simone, 2021. "Statistical decision functions with judgment," Working Paper Series 2512, European Central Bank.
    22. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    23. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2018. "Can RCTs help improve the design of CAP," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01974425, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    24. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens, 2020. "Using Experiments to Correct for Selection in Observational Studies," Papers 2006.09676, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    25. Richard A. Iles, 2019. "Government doctor absenteeism and its effects on consumer demand in rural north India," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 475-491, April.
    26. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Towards Reasonable Patient Care Under Uncertainty," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 227-245, April.
    27. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    28. Benno Torgler, 2022. "The power of public choice in law and economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1410-1453, December.
    29. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2947-2985, October.
    30. Eric Danan & Thibault Gajdos Preuss & Brian Hill & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Robust Social Decisions," Post-Print halshs-01415412, HAL.
    31. Takanori IDA & Takunori ISHIHARA & Koichiro ITO & Daido KIDO & Toru KITAGAWA & Shosei SAKAGUCHI & Shusaku SASAKI, 2023. "Choosing Who Chooses: Selection-driven targeting in energy rebate programs," Discussion papers 23011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    32. Takanori Ida & Takunori Ishihara & Koichiro Ito & Daido Kido & Toru Kitagawa & Shosei Sakaguchi & Shusaku Sasaki, 2021. "Paternalism, Autonomy, or Both? Experimental Evidence from Energy Saving Programs," Papers 2112.09850, arXiv.org.
    33. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    34. Lutz Bornmann & Julian N. Marewski, 2024. "Opium in science and society: numbers and other quantifications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(9), pages 5313-5346, September.
    35. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    36. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    37. Reiner Eichenberger & Rainer Hegselmann & David Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Certified Corona-Immunity as a Resource and Strategy to Cope with Pandemic Costs," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    38. Steven F. Lehrer & Weili Ding, 2017. "Are genetic markers of interest for economic research?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    39. Dave Donaldson, 2022. "Blending Theory and Data: A Space Odyssey," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 185-210, Summer.
    40. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    41. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2017. "Sampling-based vs. Design-based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Papers 1706.01778, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    42. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    43. Ho Fai Chan & Nikita Ferguson & David A. Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Is Science Able to Perform Under Pressure? Insights from COVID-19," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-07, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    44. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Inference for Set‐Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1519-1556, July.
    45. Daniel Ober-Reynolds, 2024. "Robustness to missing data: breakdown point analysis," Papers 2406.06804, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    46. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    47. Zhu, Qin & Jesiek, Brent K., 2014. "In pursuit of the Dao in policymaking: Toward a cultural approach to understanding engineering education policy in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 169-176.
    48. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation," Papers 1607.00699, arXiv.org.
    49. Jonathan H.W. Tan & Zhao Zichen & Daniel John Zizzo, 2023. "Scientific Inference from Field and Laboratory Economic Experiments: Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers Series 663, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    50. Guido Imbens, 2019. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," NBER Working Papers 26104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Aizawa, T.;, 2019. "Reviewing the Existing Evidence of the Conditional Cash Transfer in India through the Partial Identification Approach," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 19/24, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    52. Naruhisa Nakane & Ichiro Wada, 2022. "Estimating the Social Costs of Child Abuse in Residential Care for Children with Disabilities Using the Japanese Survey on the Interactions of Adverse and Positive Childhood Experiences toward Adulthood," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-9, December.
    53. Ottaviani, Marco & Di Tillio, Alfredo & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2016. "Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Seán M. Muller, 2021. "Evidence for a YETI? A Cautionary Tale from South Africa's Youth Employment Tax Incentive," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(6), pages 1301-1342, November.
    55. Mechoulan, Stéphane, 2020. "Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 305-326.
    56. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2022. "Robust Data-Driven Decisions Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2205.04573, arXiv.org.
    58. Guido W. Imbens, 2021. "Statistical Significance, p-Values, and the Reporting of Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 157-174, Summer.
    59. Brian Hill, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Post-Print hal-03503986, HAL.
    60. Benno Torgler, 2021. "The Power of Public Choice in Law and Economics," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    61. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & Charles F. Manski & John Mullahy, 2025. "Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification: Illustrated by Covariate Classification in Medical Risk Assessment," Papers 2501.02318, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    62. Hill, Brian, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    63. Wolfgang Frimmel & Martin Halla & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2016. "How Does Parental Divorce Affect Children's Long-term Outcomes?," Working Papers 2016-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    64. Fischer, Robert L. & Richter, Francisca García-Cobián, 2017. "SROI in the pay for success context: Are they at odds?," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-109.
    65. Eble,Alex & Boone,Peter & Elbourne,Diana, 2016. "On minimizing the risk of bias in randomized controlled trials in economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7746, The World Bank.
    66. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    67. Kaushik Basu, 2014. "Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 455-472, December.
    68. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments," Papers 1607.00698, arXiv.org.
    69. Schmidt Christoph M., 2014. "Wirkungstreffer erzielen – Die Rolle der evidenzbasierten Politikberatung in einer aufgeklärten Gesellschaft," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 219-233, October.
    70. Muller, Sean, 2014. "Randomised trials for policy: a review of the external validity of treatment effects," SALDRU Working Papers 127, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    71. Binswanger, Johannes & Oechslin, Manuel, 2020. "Better statistics, better economic policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    72. Soufian, Mona & Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert, 2014. "Adapting financial rationality: Is a new paradigm emerging?," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 724-742.
    73. Zahra Siddique, 2014. "Randomized control trials in an imperfect world," World of Labour, LISER, pages 110-110, December.
    74. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    75. Jiun-Hua Su, 2021. "No-Regret Forecasting with Egalitarian Committees," Papers 2109.13801, arXiv.org.
    76. Baruch Fischhoff & Gabrielle Wong‐Parodi & Dana Rose Garfin & E. Alison Holman & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2018. "Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    77. Youssef M. Aboutaleb & Mazen Danaf & Yifei Xie & Moshe Ben-Akiva, 2021. "Discrete Choice Analysis with Machine Learning Capabilities," Papers 2101.10261, arXiv.org.
    78. Simone Manganelli, 2019. "Deciding with Judgment," Papers 1903.06980, arXiv.org.
    79. Brian Hill, 2021. "Decision under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03504015, HAL.
    80. Craig S Wright, 2026. "Utility-Weighted Forecasting and Calibration for Risk-Adjusted Decisions under Trading Frictions," Papers 2601.07852, arXiv.org.
    81. Grossman, Guy & Humphreys, Macartan & Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella, 2020. "Information Technology and Political Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(4), pages 1321-1336.
    82. Julia H. Littell, 2024. "The Logic of Generalization From Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Impact Evaluations," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 427-460, June.
    83. Hill, Brian, 2023. "Beyond uncertainty aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 196-222.
    84. Dionissi Aliprantis, 2015. "Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity," Working Papers (Old Series) 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    85. Thomas R. Harris, 2017. "Incorporating Risk in Analysis of Tax Policies for Solar Power Investments," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 112-118.
    86. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    87. Lorena G Barberia & Maria Leticia Claro Oliveira & Andrea Junqueira & Natália de Paula Moreira & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2055-2069, September.
    88. Araz Taeihagh & M Ramesh & Michael Howlett, 2021. "Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 1009-1019, October.
    89. Daniel T. L. Shek & Florence K. Y. Wu, 2018. "The Social Indicators Movement: Progress, Paradigms, Puzzles, Promise and Potential Research Directions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 975-990, February.
    90. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    91. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, IZA Network @ LISER.
    92. Cartier, Yuri & Benmarhnia, Tarik & Brousselle, Astrid, 2015. "Tool for assessing health and equity impacts of interventions modifying air quality in urban environments," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-9.
    93. Eddie Casey, 2019. "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 5-34.
    94. Brian Hill, 2023. "Beyond Uncertainty Aversion," Post-Print hal-02428398, HAL.
    95. Choudhury, Sanchari, 2019. "WTO membership and corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    96. Philipp Eisenhauer & Jano's Gabler & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh, 2021. "Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty," Papers 2103.01115, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    97. Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Identification Design," Papers 2511.18647, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    98. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2023. "Treatment choice, mean square regret and partial identification," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 573-602, October.

  38. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Status Quo Deference and Policy Choice under Ambiguity," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 169(1), pages 116-128, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2015. "Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 879-917.
    2. Catherine Hafer & Dimitri Landa, 2013. "Issue Advocacy and Mass Political Sophistication," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 169(1), pages 139-152, March.
    3. Stanca, Lorenzo, 2021. "Smooth aggregation of Bayesian experts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

  39. Manski, Charles F. & Neri, Claudia, 2013. "First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 232-254.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Identification of treatment response with social interactions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Moshe Ben-Akiva & André Palma & Daniel McFadden & Maya Abou-Zeid & Pierre-André Chiappori & Matthieu Lapparent & Steven Durlauf & Mogens Fosgerau & Daisuke Fukuda & Stephane Hess & Charles Manski & Ar, 2012. "Process and context in choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 439-456, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Vij, Akshay & Krueger, Rico, 2017. "Random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models: Flexible nonparametric finite mixture distributions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 76-101.
    2. Wuepper, David & Sauer, Johannes & Kleemann, Linda, 2014. "Sustainable intensification of pineapple farming in Ghana: Training and complexity," Kiel Working Papers 1973, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Di Ciommo, Floridea & Comendador, Julio & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2014. "Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 46-55.
    4. Ching-Hua Yeh & Monika Hartmann, 2021. "To Purchase or Not to Purchase? Drivers of Consumers’ Preferences for Animal Welfare in Their Meat Choice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
    6. André Palma & Nathalie Picard & Moshe Ben-Akiva, 2018. "Special issue in the honor of Daniel McFadden: introduction," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 143-148, March.
    7. Maya Abou-Zeid & Moshe Ben-Akiva, 2014. "Hybrid choice models," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 17, pages 383-412, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Konstadinos G. Goulias & Ram M. Pendyala, 2014. "Choice context," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 5, pages 101-130, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Motz, Alessandra, 2021. "Consumer acceptance of the energy transition in Switzerland: The role of attitudes explained through a hybrid discrete choice model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Anna K. Edenbrandt & Christian Gamborg & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen, 2020. "Observational learning in food choices: The effect of product familiarity and closeness of peers," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 482-498, June.
    11. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard & Ignacio Inoa, 2014. "Discrete Choice Decision-Making with Multiple Decision Makers within the Household," Working Papers hal-00969216, HAL.
    12. Dugstad, Anders & Brouwer, Roy & Grimsrud, Kristine & Kipperberg, Gorm & Lindhjem, Henrik & Navrud, Ståle, 2024. "Nature is ours! – Psychological ownership and preferences for wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Ignacio Inoa & Nathalie Picard & André de Palma, 2014. "Effect of an Accessibility Measure in a Model for Choice of Residential Location, Workplace, and Type of Employment," Working Papers hal-00964212, HAL.
    14. Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens, 2016. "Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-97, February.
    15. Aviv Steren & Stav Rosenzweig & Ofir D. Rubin, 2025. "Is vehicle weight associated with risky driving behavior? Analysis of complete national records," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 97-120, March.
    16. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard & Robin Lindsey, 2021. "Activity and Transportation Decisions within Households," Working Papers of BETA 2021-37, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    17. Akshay Vij & Rico Krueger, 2018. "Random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models: Flexible nonparametric finite mixture distributions," Papers 1802.02299, arXiv.org.
    18. Jaap Sok & Egil A J Fischer, 2020. "Farmers' heterogeneous motives, voluntary vaccination and disease spread: an agent-based model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1201-1222.
    19. André Palma & Mohammed Abdellaoui & Giuseppe Attanasi & Moshe Ben-Akiva & Ido Erev & Helga Fehr-Duda & Dennis Fok & Craig Fox & Ralph Hertwig & Nathalie Picard & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker & Martin We, 2014. "Beware of black swans: Taking stock of the description–experience gap in decision under uncertainty," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 269-280, September.
    20. Jensen, Anne Kejser & Olsen, Søren Bøye, 2019. "Childhood Nature Experiences and Adulthood Environmental Preferences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 48-56.
    21. Melvin Wong & Bilal Farooq, 2019. "ResLogit: A residual neural network logit model for data-driven choice modelling," Papers 1912.10058, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    22. Di Ciommo, Floridea & Monzón, Andrés & Fernandez-Heredia, Alvaro, 2013. "Improving the analysis of road pricing acceptability surveys by using hybrid models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 302-316.
    23. Raphael Thomadsen & Robert P. Rooderkerk & On Amir & Neeraj Arora & Bryan Bollinger & Karsten Hansen & Leslie John & Wendy Liu & Aner Sela & Vishal Singh & K. Sudhir & Wendy Wood, 2018. "How Context Affects Choice," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 3-14, March.
    24. Kriswardhana, Willy & Esztergár-Kiss, Domokos, 2025. "The role of intermodality and environmental consciousness in the preferences for MaaS bundles: A hybrid choice modeling approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    25. Salak, B. & Lindberg, K. & Kienast, F. & Hunziker, M., 2021. "How landscape-technology fit affects public evaluations of renewable energy infrastructure scenarios. A hybrid choice model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    26. Michael Boakye Yiadom & Mathew Opoku Agyeman-Duah & Christina Naa Ayertso Laryea, 2025. "Brand Awareness as a Determinant of Students' Choice of a Higher Institution: Evidence from Students in a Ghanaian University," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(1), pages 371-384.

  42. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 261-289, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2011. "Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1059-1078, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    2. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2021. "Biases in Belief Reports," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242458, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Holmes, Mark J. & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "The effects of FX-interventions on forecasters disagreement: A mixed data sampling view," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    7. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-30, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    9. Sami Oinonen & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 139-163, November.
    10. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2019. "Biases in Beliefs," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203601, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Zidong An & Salem Abo‐Zaid & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Inattention and the impact of monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 623-643, June.
    12. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2017. "Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(2), pages 637-653, October.
    14. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 640-656, April.
    15. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. López Pérez, Víctor, 2015. "Does uncertainty affect participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1807, European Central Bank.
    17. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    18. Hana Braitsch & James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation," Working Papers 24-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    20. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014. "Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014, Bank of Finland.
    21. Monica Jain, 2013. "Perceived Inflation Persistence," Staff Working Papers 13-43, Bank of Canada.
    22. Dominik Bauer & Irenaeus Wolff, 2018. "Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence," TWI Research Paper Series 109, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    23. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
    25. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    26. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
    27. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
    28. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.

  45. Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 454-478, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  46. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 25-49, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2015. "Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 879-917.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Benedikt Koch & Kosuke Imai, 2025. "Statistical Decision Theory with Counterfactual Loss," Papers 2505.08908, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    5. Lutz Bornmann & Julian N. Marewski, 2024. "Opium in science and society: numbers and other quantifications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(9), pages 5313-5346, September.
    6. Eli Ben-Michael, 2025. "Partial identification via conditional linear programs: estimation and policy learning," Papers 2506.12215, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    7. Hahn, Jinyong & Ridder, Geert & Snider, Connan, 2013. "Partial identification and mergers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 126-129.
    8. Riccardo D'Adamo, 2021. "Orthogonal Policy Learning Under Ambiguity," Papers 2111.10904, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    9. Berger, Loïc & Bleichrodt, Han & Eeckhoudt, Louis, 2013. "Treatment decisions under ambiguity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 559-569.
    10. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    11. Dionissi Aliprantis, 2017. "Assessing the evidence on neighborhood effects from Moving to Opportunity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 925-954, May.
    12. Lihua Lei & Roshni Sahoo & Stefan Wager, 2023. "Policy Learning under Biased Sample Selection," Papers 2304.11735, arXiv.org.
    13. Makoto Abe, 2024. "Probability-based A/B testing with Adaptive Minimax Regret (AMR) Criterion for Long-Term Customer Metrics," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1234, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    14. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics," NBER Working Papers 20432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Stanca, Lorenzo, 2021. "Smooth aggregation of Bayesian experts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Besley, Tim & Mueller, Hannes, 2015. "Volatility and Political Institutions: Theory and Application to Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 10374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  47. Charles Manski, 2011. "Actualist rationality," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 195-210, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Steven N. Durlauf, 2012. "Complexity, economics, and public policy," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 11(1), pages 45-75, February.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Optimize, satisfice, or choose without deliberation? A simple minimax-regret assessment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(2), pages 155-173, August.

  48. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Genes, Eyeglasses, and Social Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 83-94, Fall.

    Cited by:

    1. Loewen, Peter J. & Dawes, Christopher T. & Mazar, Nina & Johannesson, Magnus & Koellinger, Philipp & Magnusson, Patrik K.E., 2013. "The heritability of moral standards for everyday dishonesty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 363-366.
    2. Brescianini, Sonia & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Checchi, Daniele, 2024. "Heritability in the Labour Market: Evidence from Italian Twins," IZA Discussion Papers 17476, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Smith, Jonathan, 2013. "Ova and out: Using twins to estimate the educational returns to attending a selective college," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-180.
    4. Pietro Biroli & Titus J. Galama & Stephanie von Hinke & Hans van Kippersluis & Cornelius A. Rietveld & Kevin Thom, 2022. "The Economics and Econometrics of Gene-Environment Interplay," Papers 2203.00729, arXiv.org.
    5. Joan Costa Font & Mireia Jofre-Bonet & Julian Le Grand, 2015. "Vertical Transmission of Overweight: Evidence From English Adoptees," CEP Discussion Papers dp1324, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Leuven, Edwin & Plug, Erik & Marte, Rønning, 2014. "The Relative Contribution of Genetic and Environmental Factors to Cancer Risk and Cancer Mortality in Norway," Memorandum 05/2014, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2016. "Income inequality and social origins," World of Labour, LISER, pages 261-261, May.
    8. Vanessa Mertins & Andrea B. Schote & Jobst Meyer, 2013. "Variants of the Monoamine Oxidase A Gene (MAOA) Predict Free-riding Behavior in Women in a Strategic Public Goods Experiment," IAAEU Discussion Papers 201302, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    9. Lauren Gaydosh & Daniel W. Belsky & Benjamin W. Domingue & Jason D. Boardman & Kathleen Mullan Harris, 2018. "Father Absence and Accelerated Reproductive Development in Non-Hispanic White Women in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1245-1267, August.
    10. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    11. Niken Kusumawardhani & Daniel Suryadarma & Luca Tiberti & Veto Tyas Indrio, "undated". "What Skills Lead to Entrepreneurial Success? Evidence from Non-Farm-Household Enterprises in Indonesia," Working Papers 1971, Communications Section.
    12. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., 2016. "Biology and Gender in the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10386, IZA Network @ LISER.
    13. Xu, Yilan & Briley, Daniel A. & Brown, Jeffrey R. & Roberts, Brent W., 2017. "Genetic and environmental influences on household financial distress," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 404-424.
    14. Terhi Maczulskij, 2012. "Employment sector and pay gaps: genetic and environmental influences," ERSA conference papers ersa12p755, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Almond, Douglas & Currie, Janet & Herrmann, Mariesa, 2012. "From infant to mother: Early disease environment and future maternal health," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 475-483.
    16. Olaf Hübler, 2012. "Are Tall People Less Risk Averse than Others?," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 457, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    17. Ari Hyytinen & Pekka Ilmakunnas & Edvard Johansson & Otto Toivanen, 2019. "Heritability of lifetime earnings," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 319-335, September.
    18. Stenberg, Anders, 2013. "Interpreting estimates of heritability – A note on the twin decomposition," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 201-205.
    19. Niken Kusumawardhani & Daniel Suryadarma & Luca Tiberti & Veto Tyas Indrio, "undated". "Keterampilan Apa yang Mendukung Kesuksesan Berwirausaha? Bukti dari Usaha Rumah Tangga Nonpertanian di Indonesia," Working Papers 3527, Communications Section.
    20. Jason Collins & Boris Baer & Ernst Juerg Weber, 2016. "Evolutionary Biology in Economics: A Review," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 291-312, June.
    21. Hyeokmoon Kweon & Casper A.P. Burik & Richard Karlsson Linner & Ronald de Vlaming & Aysu Okbay & Daphne Martschenko & Kathryn Paige Harden & Thomas A. DiPrete & Philipp D. Koellinger, 2020. "Genetic Fortune: Winning or Losing Education, Income, and Health," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-053/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Dec 2020.
    22. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2024. "On the Origins of Socioeconomic Inequalities: Evidence from Twin Families," LISER Working Paper Series 2024-03, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    23. Fletcher, Jason M. & Lu, Qiongshi & Mazumder, Bhashkar & Song, Jie, 2023. "Understanding Sibling Correlations in Education: Molecular Genetics and Family Background," IZA Discussion Papers 15862, IZA Network @ LISER.
    24. Neugart, Michael & Yildirim, Selen, 2020. "What determines perceived income justice? Evidence from the German TwinLife study," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    25. Hyytinen, Ari & Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Johansson, Edvard & Toivanen, Otto, 2013. "Heritability of Lifetime Income," MPRA Paper 46326, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  49. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 441-459, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    4. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Chollete, Lorán & Jaffee, Dwight & Mamun, Khawaja A., 2022. "Policy suggestions from a simple framework with extreme outcomes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 374-398.

  50. Charles Bellemare & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Introduction: ‘Measurement and analysis of subjective expectations’," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 351-351, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Costanigro, Marco & Onozaka, Yuko, 2018. "A Belief-Preference Model of Choice for Experience and Credence Goods," Working Papers 276053, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

  51. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 421-440, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  52. Charles F. Manski, 2010. "When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 187-202, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.

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    1. Colubi, Ana & Ramos-Guajardo, Ana Belén, 2023. "Fuzzy sets and (fuzzy) random sets in Econometrics and Statistics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 84-98.
    2. Melissa Boyle & Justin Svec, 2022. "The Roundness of Antiquity Valuations from Auction Houses and Sales," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 602-630, October.
    3. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
    4. Peter Backé & Elisabeth Beckmann, 2020. "What drives people’s expectations of euro adoption? – Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey on selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20, pages 57-79.
    5. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," NBER Working Papers 25496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Joan Costa-i-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9424, CESifo.
    8. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
    9. Lindsay C Kobayashi & Rebecca J Beeken & Susanne F Meisel, 2017. "Biopsychosocial predictors of perceived life expectancy in a national sample of older men and women," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    11. Chad Kendall & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Trebbi, 2013. "How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign," Working Papers 486, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Craig Landry & Dylan Turner, 2020. "Risk Perceptions and Flood Insurance: Insights from Homeowners on the Georgia Coast," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Stephane Bonhomme & Angela Denis, 2023. "Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters," Papers 2310.09105, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    14. Bissonnette, Luc & Hurd, Michael D. & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2014. "Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks," IZA Discussion Papers 8658, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Oben K Bayrak & Bengt Kriström, 2016. "Is there a valuation gap? The case of interval valuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 218-236.
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    17. Joanne W. Hsu, 2011. "Aging and Strategic Learning: The Impact of Spousal Incentives on Financial Literacy," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-06, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
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    20. Breitmoser, Yves, 2017. "Discrete Choice with Presentation Effects," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 35, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    21. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    22. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2026. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 297-335, January.
    23. Pedersen, Line Bjørnskov & Mørkbak, Morten Raun & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2020. "Handling resolvable uncertainty from incomplete scenarios in future doctors' job choice – Probabilities vs discrete choices," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
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    25. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
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    27. Breitmoser, Yves, 2016. "The axiomatic foundation of logit and its relation to behavioral welfare," MPRA Paper 71632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    31. Breitmoser, Yves, 2016. "Stochastic choice, systematic mistakes and preference estimation," MPRA Paper 72779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Staffa, Ruben Marek, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects from sovereign risk vs. Knightian uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 27/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    33. Kettlewell, Nathan, 2020. "Subjective Expectations for Health Service Use and Consequences for Health Insurance Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 13445, IZA Network @ LISER.
    34. Jonas Dovern & Geoff Kenny, 2020. "Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 309-347, October.
    35. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    36. Manski, Charles F. & Neri, Claudia, 2013. "First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 232-254.
    37. Ian B. Page & Erik Lichtenberg & Monica Saavoss, 2020. "Estimating Willingness to Pay from Count Data When Survey Responses are Rounded," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(3), pages 657-675, March.
    38. Bago d'Uva, Teresa & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2020. "Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations☆," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    39. Ye, Zihan & Zou, Xiaopeng & Post, Thomas & Mo, Weiqiao & Yang, Qianqian, 2022. "Too old to plan? Age identity and financial planning among the older population of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    40. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
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    42. Levon Barseghyan & Maura Coughlin & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2021. "Heterogeneous Choice Sets and Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2015-2048, September.
    43. Reyes, Germán, 2024. "Coarse Wage-Setting and Behavioral Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 17039, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    45. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    46. Vadim Grishchenko & Maria Lymar & Andrei Sinyakov, 2025. "What information is important for households’ inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps148, Bank of Russia.
    47. Abe, Naohito & Ueno, Yuko, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    48. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    49. Katherine Carman & Peter Kooreman, 2014. "Probability perceptions and preventive health care," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 43-71, August.
    50. Italo A. Gutierrez & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2017. "Whistle While You Work: Job Insecurity and Older Workers' Mental Health in the United States," Cahiers de recherche 1702, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    51. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
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    56. V. P. Kirilenko & G. V. Alekseev, 2021. "Measuring Political Trust in a Modern Democracy," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 10.
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    58. Evans, Keith & Herriges, Joseph A., 2010. "Rounding in Recreation Demand Models: A Latent Class Count Model," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31594, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    59. Thomas Crossley & Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2021. "Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods: new distributional tests of rational expectations," IFS Working Papers W21/01, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    60. Chiara Binelli, 2019. "Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 201-231, August.
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    62. de Bresser, Jochem, 2016. "Test-Retest Reliability of Subjective Survival Expectations," Other publications TiSEM dfd6074d-31ae-4ecb-be25-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    63. Lee, Minjoon, 2023. "Portfolio allocation over the life cycle with multiple late-in-life saving motives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    67. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
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    99. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    100. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    101. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    102. Peter Backé & Elisabeth Beckmann, 2022. "Euro adoption in CESEE: How do financial literacy and trust in institutions affect people’s attitudes?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/22, pages 7-28.
    103. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    104. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    105. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabio Pisani & Berkan Acar, 2023. "Eudaimonic wellbeing and life expectancy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 179-195, May.
    106. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, IZA Network @ LISER.
    107. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2024. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 81-114, February.
    108. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring subjective survival expectations – Do response scales matter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 136-156.
    109. de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2017. "The Predictive Power of Subjective Probability Questions," Other publications TiSEM 67bd2341-45c7-4e60-99e5-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    110. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    111. Arie Kapteyn & Jinkook Lee & Caroline Tassot & Hana Vonkova & Gema Zamarro, 2015. "Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 625-660, September.
    112. Bennett, Michael T. & Gong, Yazhen & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2018. "Hungry Birds and Angry Farmers: Using Choice Experiments to Assess “Eco-compensation” for Coastal Wetlands Protection in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 71-87.
    113. Hana Braitsch & James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation," Working Papers 24-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    114. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    115. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    116. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    117. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Keshav Dogra & Sebastian Heise & Edward S. Knotek & Brent Meyer & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2023. "Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 23-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    118. Maria Iannario, 2012. "Modelling shelter choices in a class of mixture models for ordinal responses," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, March.
    119. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    120. Frank A. Sloan, 2024. "Subjective beliefs, health, and health behaviors," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 105-144, October.
    121. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
    122. Daniel Kaliski, 2025. "Household debt, self-insurance, and subjective medical expenses risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1191-1231, March.
    123. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    124. V. Kerry Smith, 2026. "What is more important for subjective longevity expectations: being healthy or rich?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 137-160, February.
    125. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20207, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    126. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    127. James Bland & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2024. "Rounding the (Non)Bayesian Curve: Unraveling the Effects of Rounding Errors in Belief Updating," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1353, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    128. Andrew Caplin, 2017. "Comment on "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Economic Expectations: Progress and Promise"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 472-478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    129. William Greene & Mark N. Harris & Preety Srivastava & Xueyan Zhao, 2018. "Misreporting and econometric modelling of zeros in survey data on social bads: An application to cannabis consumption," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 372-389, February.
    130. Belzil, Christian & Pernaudet, Julie & Poinas, François, 2021. "Estimating Coherency between Survey Data and Incentivized Experimental Data," IZA Discussion Papers 14594, IZA Network @ LISER.
    131. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2021. "Social Security Uncertainty and Demand for Retirement Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 810-834, December.
    132. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander, 2025. "Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys," Discussion Papers 22/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    133. Eid, Nourhan & Maltby, Josephine & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2016. "Income Rounding and Loan Performance in the Peer-to-Peer Market," MPRA Paper 72852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    134. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    135. Ari Hyytinen & Jan Jääskeläinen & Antti Sieppi & Vesa-Heikki Soini & Janne Tukiainen, 2026. "Entry barriers in public procurement: Evidence from conjoint survey experiment," Discussion Papers 176, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    136. Bell, D.N.F. & Comerford, D.A. & Douglas, E., 2020. "How do subjective life expectancies compare with mortality tables? Similarities and differences in three national samples," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    137. Meango, Romuald & Girsberger, Esther Mirjam, 2024. "Identification of Ex Ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities: An Application to Preferences for Public-Sector Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 17174, IZA Network @ LISER.
    138. Grant Graziani & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Workers' Spending Response to the 2011 Payroll Tax Cuts," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 124-159, November.
    139. Beresteanu, Arie & Molchanov, Ilya & Molinari, Francesca, 2012. "Partial identification using random set theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 17-32.
    140. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Katherine G. Carman, 2018. "Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents’ Evaluations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(10), pages 2128-2143, October.
    141. Junichi Kikuchi & Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2023. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1609-1632, September.
    142. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
    143. Pamela Giustinelli & Nicola Pavoni, 2017. "The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 93-120, April.
    144. Michael Gideon & Brooke Helppie-McFall & Joanne W. Hsu, 2017. "Heaping at Round Numbers on Financial Questions : The Role of Satisficing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    145. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    146. David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    147. Hyytinen, Ari & Lahtonen, Jukka & Pajarinen, Mika, 2012. "Entrepreneurial optimism and survival," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland.
    148. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner & Yuxi Yao, 2025. "The Role of Nonpecuniary Considerations: Location Decisions of College Graduates From Low‐Income Backgrounds," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(2), pages 903-931, May.
    149. Basit Zafar, 2010. "Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? Evidence on cognitive biases," Staff Reports 454, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    150. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2022. "The reliability of students’ earnings expectations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    151. Breitmoser, Yves, 2018. "The Axiomatic Foundation of Logit," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 78, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    152. Zhao, Yongchen, 2023. "Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1713-1735.
    153. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    154. Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.
    155. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2010. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5458, The World Bank.
    156. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    157. von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin & Wogrolly, Axel, 2022. "Heterogeneity in households’ stock market beliefs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 232-247.

  54. Manski Charles F, 2009. "Adaptive Partial Drug Approval: A Health Policy Proposal," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-5, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Bognar, Katalin & Romley, John A. & Bae, Jay P. & Murray, James & Chou, Jacquelyn W. & Lakdawalla, Darius N., 2017. "The role of imperfect surrogate endpoint information in drug approval and reimbursement decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Tetenov, Aleksey, 2012. "Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 157-165.
    3. Iverson, Terrence, 2013. "Minimax regret discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 598-608.
    4. Prokop, Jacek & Regibeau, Pierre & Rockett, Katharine, 2009. "Minimum quality standards and novelty requirements in a one-shot development race," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Ute Laermann-Nguyen & Martin Backfisch, 2021. "Innovation crisis in the pharmaceutical industry? A survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-37, December.

  55. Charles F. Manski, 2009. "The 2009 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Diversified Treatment Under Ambiguity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1013-1041, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Florian Mudekereza, 2025. "Robust Aggregation of Preferences," Papers 2504.07401, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    3. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    6. Basu, Anirban, 2015. "Welfare implications of learning through solicitation versus diversification in health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 165-173.
    7. Ngueuleweu Tiwang Gildas & Ningaye paul & Fon Dorothy Engwali, 2025. "Do demographic structure conditions sector contribution to economic growth? A machine learning approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 2901-2941, February.
    8. Anirban Basu, 2018. "Comment: Manski's views on patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1422-1424, October.
    9. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    10. T. D. Pol & S. Gabbert & H.-P. Weikard & E. C. Ierland & E. M. T. Hendrix, 2017. "A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1087-1109, December.
    11. William A. Brock & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 441-459, March.
    12. Manski, Charles F., 2023. "Probabilistic prediction for binary treatment choice: With focus on personalized medicine," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 647-663.
    13. Daido Kido, 2023. "Locally Asymptotically Minimax Statistical Treatment Rules Under Partial Identification," Papers 2311.08958, arXiv.org.
    14. Brendon P. Andrews, 2023. "Economic Evaluation under Ambiguity and Structural Uncertainties," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics," NBER Working Papers 20432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 553, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    17. Stanca, Lorenzo, 2021. "Smooth aggregation of Bayesian experts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Optimize, satisfice, or choose without deliberation? A simple minimax-regret assessment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(2), pages 155-173, August.
    19. Charles Manski, 2011. "Actualist rationality," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 195-210, August.

  56. Charles F. Manski, 2009. "Social Planning with Partial Knowledge of Social Interactions," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(1), pages 146-158, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Engel & Urs Schweizer, 2009. "Editorial Preface," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(1), pages 1-4, March.

  57. Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  58. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2009. "More on monotone instrumental variables," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(s1), pages 200-216, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Jiang Zhichao & Chiba Yasutaka & VanderWeele Tyler J., 2014. "Monotone Confounding, Monotone Treatment Selection and Monotone Treatment Response," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Gu, Jiaying & Russell, Thomas M., 2023. "Partial identification in nonseparable binary response models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 528-562.
    3. Jiannan Lu & Peng Ding & Tirthankar Dasgupta, 2018. "Treatment Effects on Ordinal Outcomes: Causal Estimands and Sharp Bounds," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 43(5), pages 540-567, October.
    4. Chalak, Karim & Kim, Daniel, 2020. "Measurement error in multiple equations: Tobin’s q and corporate investment, saving, and debt," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 413-432.
    5. Santiago Acerenza & Julian Martinez-Iriarte & Alejandro S'anchez-Becerra & Pietro Emilio Spini, 2025. "Bounds for within-household encouragement designs with interference," Papers 2503.14314, arXiv.org.
    6. Freyberger, Joachim & Horowitz, Joel L., 2015. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 41-53.
    7. Giorgio Brunello & Dimitris Christelis & Anna Sanz‐de‐Galdeano & Anastasia Terskaya, 2024. "Does college selectivity reduce obesity? A partial identification approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 2306-2320, October.
    8. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    9. Monique De Haan & Ragnhild C. Schreiner, 2018. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Welfare Dependency," CESifo Working Paper Series 7140, CESifo.
    10. Kyunghoon Ban & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2021. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects with Imperfect Instruments," Papers 2109.14785, arXiv.org.
    11. Richey, Jeremiah, 2015. "Shackled labor markets: Bounding the causal effects of criminal convictions in the U.S," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-24.
    12. Lorenzo Almada & Ian M. McCarthy & Rusty Tchernis, 2015. "What Can We Learn About the Effects of Food Stamps on Obesity in the Presence of Misreporting?," NBER Working Papers 21596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brent Kreider & Richard J. Manski & John Moeller & John Pepper, 2015. "The Effect of Dental Insurance on the Use of Dental Care for Older Adults: A Partial Identification Analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 840-858, July.
    14. Lixiong Li & Désiré Kédagni & Ismaël Mourifié, 2024. "Discordant relaxations of misspecified models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), pages 331-379, May.
    15. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    16. Joachim Freyberger & Joel L. Horowitz, 2012. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Kühnle, Daniel & Oberfichtner, Michael, 2017. "Bounding the Causal Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health: Nonparametric Evidence from Four Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 10652, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Demuynck, Thomas, 2015. "Bounding average treatment effects: A linear programming approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 75-77.
    19. Ting Ye & Luke Keele & Raiden Hasegawa & Dylan S. Small, 2020. "A Negative Correlation Strategy for Bracketing in Difference-in-Differences," Papers 2006.02423, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    20. Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Adam Rosen, 2012. "Intersection bounds: estimation and inference," CeMMAP working papers 33/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    21. Brent Kreider & John V. Pepper & Manan Roy, 2016. "Identifying the Effects of WIC on Food Insecurity Among Infants and Children," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1106-1122, April.
    22. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato & Yuta Koike, 2022. "High-dimensional Data Bootstrap," Papers 2205.09691, arXiv.org.
    23. Sianesi, Barbara, 2017. "Evidence of randomisation bias in a large-scale social experiment: The case of ERA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 41-64.
    24. Das, Tirthatanmoy & Polachek, Solomon, 2017. "Micro Foundations of Earnings Differences," IZA Discussion Papers 10922, IZA Network @ LISER.
    25. Monique De Haan & Magnus Stubhaug, 2024. "The Causal Component in the Intergenerational Transmission of Income," CESifo Working Paper Series 11395, CESifo.
    26. Stefanie Hof, 2014. "Does Private Tutoring Work? The Effectiveness of Private Tutoring: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0096, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    27. Kedagni, Desire, 2021. "Identifying treatment effects in the presence of confounded types," ISU General Staff Papers 202106050700001056, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    28. Qian, Hang, 2011. "Sampling Variation, Monotone Instrumental Variables and the Bootstrap Bias Correction," MPRA Paper 32634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Cheti Nicoletti & Franco Peracchi & Francesca Foliano, 2009. "Estimating Income Poverty in the Presence of Missing Data and Measurement Error," CEIS Research Paper 145, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Sep 2009.
    30. Stefan Boes, 2010. "Convex Treatment Response and Treatment Selection," SOI - Working Papers 1001, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    31. Monique De Haan, 2012. "The Effect of Additional Funds for Low-Ability Pupils - A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3993, CESifo.
    32. Xu, Chen & Liu, Xiao, 2023. "The economic value of language in China: How important is Mandarin proficiency in the Chinese labor market? A bounding approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    33. Vishal Kamat & Samuel Norris & Matthew Pecenco, 2023. "Identification in Multiple Treatment Models under Discrete Variation," Papers 2307.06174, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    34. S. Sriram & Puneet Manchanda & Mercedes Bravo & Junhong Chu & Liye Ma & Minjae Song & Scott Shriver & Upender Subramanian, 2015. "Platforms: a multiplicity of research opportunities," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 141-152, June.
    35. Stefan Boes, 2009. "Partial Identification of Discrete Counterfactual Distributions with Sequential Update of Information," SOI - Working Papers 0918, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    36. Joachim Freyberger & Joel L. Horowitz, 2012. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers 15/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    37. Matthew A Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2023. "Choosing exogeneity assumptions in potential outcome models," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 327-349.
    38. Haensch, Anna-Carolina & Drechsler, Jörg & Bernhard, Sarah, 2020. "TippingSens: An R Shiny Application to Facilitate Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference Under Confounding," IAB-Discussion Paper 202029, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    39. Tommasi, Denni & Zhang, Lina, 2024. "Bounding program benefits when participation is misreported," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    40. Qian, Hang, 2011. "Bayesian inference with monotone instrumental variables," MPRA Paper 32672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Clarke, Damian & Matta, Benjamín, 2017. "Practical Considerations for Questionable IVs," MPRA Paper 79991, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Depalo, Domenico, 2023. "Should the Daylight Saving Time be abolished? Evidence from work accidents in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    43. Christian Bontemps & Thierry Magnac & Eric Maurin, 2011. "Set identified linear models," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    44. Jan F. KIVIET, 2012. "Identification and Inference in a Simultaneous Equation Under Alternative Information Sets and Sampling Schemes," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1207, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    45. Michela Bia & German Blanco & Marie Valentova, 2021. "The Causal Impact of Taking Parental Leave on Wages: Evidence from 2005 to 2015," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-08, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    46. Joachim Freyberger & Joel L. Horowitz, 2013. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers 31/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    47. Christelis, Dimitris & Dobrescu, Loretti I., 2020. "The causal effect of social activities on cognition: Evidence from 20 European countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    48. Richey, Jeremiah, 2012. "The Causal Effects of Criminal Convictions on Labor Market Outcomes in Young Men: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," MPRA Paper 56112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Siwach, Garima, 2017. "Criminal background checks and recidivism: Bounding the causal impact," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 74-85.
    50. Gundersen, Craig & Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2011. "The Impact of the National School Lunch Program on Child Health: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32719, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    51. Joachim Freyberger & Joel L. Horowitz, 2013. "Identification and shape restrictions in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers CWP31/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    52. Chiburis, Richard C., 2010. "Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 267-275, December.
    53. Fan Yang & Dylan S. Small, 2016. "Using post-outcome measurement information in censoring-by-death problems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(1), pages 299-318, January.
    54. Sun, Zhenting & Wüthrich, Kaspar, 2025. "Pairwise valid instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    55. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "Concave‐monotone treatment response and monotone treatment selection: With an application to the returns to schooling," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 175-194, March.
    56. Chen Xu, 2025. "Return to English Skills in China: Using a Nonparametric Bounding Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 403-435, June.

  59. Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Studying Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 93-105.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.

  60. Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Partial Identification Of Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1393-1410, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Sam Cosaert & Thomas Demuynck, 2018. "Nonparametric welfare and demand analysis with unobserved individual heterogeneity," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/251988, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Gu, Jiaying & Russell, Thomas M., 2023. "Partial identification in nonseparable binary response models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 528-562.
    3. Natalia Lazzati & John K.-H. Quah & Koji Shirai, 2016. "A revealed preference theory of monotone choice and strategic complementarity," Discussion Paper Series 147, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Oct 2016.
    4. Jorg Stoye & Yuichi Kitamura, 2017. "Nonparametric analysis of random utility models," CeMMAP working papers 56/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    6. Jiaying Gu & Thomas M. Russell, 2021. "Partial Identification in Nonseparable Binary Response Models with Endogenous Regressors," Papers 2101.01254, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Lukáš Lafférs, 2019. "Bounding average treatment effects using linear programming," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 727-767, September.
    8. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
    9. Natalia Lazzati & John K.‐H. Quah & Koji Shirai, 2025. "An ordinal approach to the empirical analysis of games with monotone best responses," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 235-266, January.
    10. Hubner, Stefan, 2016. "Topics in nonparametric identification and estimation," Other publications TiSEM 08fce56b-3193-46e0-871b-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Demuynck, Thomas, 2015. "Bounding average treatment effects: A linear programming approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 75-77.
    12. Yuichi Kitamura & Jorg Stoye, 2019. "Nonparametric Counterfactuals in Random Utility Models," Papers 1902.08350, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    13. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Simple Estimators for Binary Choice Models with Endogenous Regressors," Working Papers 111204, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    14. Arthur Lewbel & Yingying Dong & Thomas Tao Yang, 2012. "Viewpoint: Comparing features of convenient estimators for binary choice models with endogenous regressors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 809-829, August.
    15. Arthur Lewbel & Yingying Dong & Thomas Tao Yang, 2012. "Comparing features of convenient estimators for binary choice models with endogenous regressors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 809-829, August.
    16. Huber, Martin & Laffers, Lukáš, 2020. "Bounds on direct and indirect effects under treatment/mediator endogeneity and outcome attrition," FSES Working Papers 514, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    17. Natalia Lazzati & John K.-H. Quah & Koji Shirai, 2018. "Nonparametric analysis of monotone choice," Discussion Paper Series 184, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    18. Peter Caradonna & Christopher Turansick, 2026. "Identification in Stochastic Choice," Papers 2602.19950, arXiv.org.
    19. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    20. Allen, Roy & Rehbeck, John, 2022. "Latent complementarity in bundles models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 322-341.
    21. Lafférs, Lukáš & Nedela, Roman, 2025. "Sensitivity of Bounds on ATEs under Survey Nonresponse," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-13.
    22. Komarova, Tatiana, 2013. "Binary choice models with discrete regressors: Identification and misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 14-33.
    23. Kamat, Vishal, 2019. "Identification with Latent Choice Sets," TSE Working Papers 19-1031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    24. Lukáš Lafférs, 2019. "Identification in Models with Discrete Variables," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 657-696, February.
    25. Bhattacharya, Debopam, 2025. "Integrability and identification in multinomial choice models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    26. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    27. Kamat, Vishal, 2024. "Identifying the effects of a program offer with an application to Head Start," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    28. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Toulis, Panos, 2021. "Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence from serology tests: A partial identification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 193-213.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "More on random utility models with bounded ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 205-213, March.
    31. Stefan Hoderlein & Jörg Stoye, 2015. "Testing stochastic rationality and predicting stochastic demand: the case of two goods," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(2), pages 313-328, October.
    32. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of Covid-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2006.16214, arXiv.org.
    33. Arthur Lewbel, 2018. "The Identification Zoo - Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 957, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2019.
    34. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Working Papers 2020-54_Revised, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

  61. Manski, Charles F., 2007. "Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 105-115, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Ng, Tsan Sheng, 2013. "Robust regret for uncertain linear programs with application to co-production models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 483-493.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, With Application To Drug Approval," NBER Working Papers 13312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    4. Tetenov, Aleksey, 2012. "Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 157-165.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Statistical inference for statistical decisions," Papers 1909.06853, arXiv.org.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine," Papers 2110.00864, arXiv.org.
    7. Takuya Ishihara, 2023. "Bandwidth selection for treatment choice with binary outcomes," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 539-549, October.
    8. Chunrong Ai & Yue Fang & Haitian Xie, 2024. "Data-Driven Policy Learning for Continuous Treatments," Papers 2402.02535, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    9. Ishihara, Takuya & Kurisu, Daisuke, 2025. "Shrinkage methods for treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
    10. Samuel Higbee, 2022. "Policy Learning with New Treatments," Papers 2210.04703, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    11. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "Implications of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs for Equilibrium Asset Prices: A Theoretical Framework," CSEF Working Papers 162, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    13. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Clinical trial design enabling epsilon-optimal treatment rules," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 430, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    14. Eli Ben-Michael, 2025. "Partial identification via conditional linear programs: estimation and policy learning," Papers 2506.12215, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    15. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
    16. Iverson, Terrence, 2013. "Minimax regret discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 598-608.
    17. García-Pola, Bernardo, 2020. "Do people minimize regret in strategic situations? A level-k comparison," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 82-104.
    18. Evan Sadler, 2015. "Minimax and the value of information," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(4), pages 575-586, April.
    19. Matthew A. Masten, 2023. "Minimax-regret treatment rules with many treatments," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 501-537, October.
    20. Achim Ahrens & Alessandra Stampi‐Bombelli & Selina Kurer & Dominik Hangartner, 2024. "Optimal multi‐action treatment allocation: A two‐phase field experiment to boost immigrant naturalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1379-1395, November.
    21. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Robust Forecasting," Papers 2011.03153, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    22. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
    23. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Andrea Gallice, 2007. "Some equivalence results between mixed strategy Nash equilibria and minimax regret in 2x2 games," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-8.
    25. Lihua Lei & Roshni Sahoo & Stefan Wager, 2023. "Policy Learning under Biased Sample Selection," Papers 2304.11735, arXiv.org.
    26. Daido Kido, 2023. "Locally Asymptotically Minimax Statistical Treatment Rules Under Partial Identification," Papers 2311.08958, arXiv.org.
    27. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    28. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
    29. Alexei N. Parakhonyak & Anton Sobolev, 2014. "Non-Reservation Price Equilibria And Search Without Priors," HSE Working papers WP BRP 69/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    30. Stoye, Jörg, 2009. "Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 70-81, July.
    31. Goller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Pongratz, Tamara & Wolff, Joachim, 2025. "Active labor market policies for the long-term unemployed: New evidence from causal machine learning," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    32. Neil Christy & Amanda Ellen Kowalski, 2024. "Counting Defiers: A Design-Based Model of an Experiment Can Reveal Evidence Beyond the Average Effect," Papers 2412.16352, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    33. Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012. "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 42-58.
    34. Stoye, Jörg, 2011. "Axioms for minimax regret choice correspondences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2226-2251.
    35. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks," NBER Working Papers 11675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "A Model of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs," CSEF Working Papers 161, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2008.
    37. Gallice, Andrea, 2007. "Best Responding to What? A Behavioral Approach to One Shot Play in 2x2 Games," Discussion Papers in Economics 1365, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    38. Charles F. Manski & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Clinical trial design enabling e-optimal treatment rules," CeMMAP working papers CWP60/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    39. Deniz Dutz & Ingrid Huitfeldt & Santiago Lacouture & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky & Winnie van Dijk, 2025. "Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    40. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2023. "Treatment choice, mean square regret and partial identification," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 573-602, October.
    41. Neil Christy & A. E. Kowalski, 2024. "Starting Small: Prioritizing Safety over Efficacy in Randomized Experiments Using the Exact Finite Sample Likelihood," Papers 2407.18206, arXiv.org.

  62. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.

    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
    2. Thierry Kalisa & Mary Riddel & W. Douglass Shaw, 2016. "Willingness to pay to avoid arsenic-related risks: a special regressor approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 143-162, July.
    3. Kaustia, Markku & Conlin, Andrew & Luotonen, Niilo, 2023. "What drives stock market participation? The role of institutional, traditional, and behavioral factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2019. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 25744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022. "Informative social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2025. "The formation of subjective house price expectations: the role of perceptions and local economic conditions," IFS Working Papers W25/58, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Discussion Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Fabian Gouret & Guillaume Hollard, 2011. "When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00867700, HAL.
    10. Chin, Alycia & VanEpps, Eric M. & Scholl, Brian & Nash, Steven, 2025. "How should I know? Lack of confidence biases stock market expectations toward zero," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Bissonnette, Luc & Hurd, Michael D. & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2014. "Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks," IZA Discussion Papers 8658, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Da Ke, 2021. "Who Wears the Pants? Gender Identity Norms and Intrahousehold Financial Decision‐Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1389-1425, June.
    13. Sreyoshi Das & Camelia M. Kuhnen & Stefan Nagel, 2017. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 24045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2013. "Asymmetric information and rationalizability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 789-804, November.
    15. Jeff Dominitz & Angela Hung, 2006. "Retirement Savings Portfolio Management," Working Papers wp138, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    16. Campanale Claudio, 2025. "Heterogeneous beliefs, preference for safety, and life-cycle portfolio allocation," Working papers 100, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    17. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading," Working Papers WR-938, RAND Corporation.
    18. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sébastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," TSE Working Papers 1561, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    19. Duraj, Kamila & Grunow, Daniela & Chaliasos, Michael & Laudenbach, Christine & Siegel, Stephan, 2024. "Rethinking the stock market participation puzzle: A qualitative approach," SAFE Working Paper Series 441, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    20. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    21. Luc Arrondel & Jérôme Coffinet, 2021. "Preparing for the tax reform: the risky French households' portfolio in 2018," PSE Working Papers halshs-03322577, HAL.
    22. Mary Riddel, 2009. "Risk Perception, Ambiguity, and Nuclear‐Waste Transport," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(3), pages 781-797, January.
    23. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer & Peter Haan & Boryana Ilieva & Annekatrin Schrenker & Georg Weizsäcker, 2023. "Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 411, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    24. Shahriari, Hesam & Stivers, Adam & Tsang, Ming, 2025. "Bias in cryptocurrency investing: The effect of financial and moral considerations," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    25. Kaustia, Markku & Lehtoranta, Antti & Puttonen, Vesa, 2013. "Does sophistication affect long-term return expectations? Evidence from financial advisers' exam scores," SAFE Working Paper Series 3, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    26. Barth, Daniel, 2014. "The costs and beliefs impliedby direct stock ownership," Working Paper Series 1657, European Central Bank.
    27. Kamila Duraj & Daniela Grunow & Michael Haliassos & Christine Laudenbach & Stephan Siegel, 2025. "Rethinking the Stock Market Participation Puzzle: A Qualitative Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 11980, CESifo.
    28. Francesco D'Acunto & Thomas Rauter & Christoph Scheuch & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2020. "Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech," CESifo Working Paper Series 8123, CESifo.
    29. Huck, Steffen & Schmidt, Tobias & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2014. "The standard portfolio choice problem in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2014-308, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    30. Alycia Chin & Wändi Bruin, 2017. "Understanding the Formation of Consumers' Stock Market Expectations," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 200-210, March.
    31. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Financial Literacy, Human Capital and Stock Market Participation in Europe: An Empirical Exercise under Endogenous Framework," Discussion Papers 2015/194, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    32. Daniel Barth, 2018. "The Costs and Beliefs Implied by Direct Stock Ownership," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5263-5288, November.
    33. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    34. Duraj, Kamila & Grunow, Daniela & Chaliasos, Michael & Laudenbach, Christine & Siegel, Stephan, 2024. "Rethinking the stock market participation puzzle: A qualitative approach," IMFS Working Paper Series 210, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    35. John Ameriks & Gábor Kézdi & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2018. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Brunet, Gillian & Hilt, Eric & Jaremski, Matthew, 2025. "‘Invest!’: Liberty bonds and stock ownership over the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    37. Hannes Schwandt, 2014. "Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp1281, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    38. Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2010. "Mean-variance econometric analysis of household portfolios," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 481-504.
    39. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    40. Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B. & Marquering, Wessel & Zhang, Cherry Y., 2014. "Gender differences in optimism and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 630-651.
    41. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2018. "How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7154, CESifo.
    42. Hanspal, Tobin & Weber, Annika & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash and its effect on household expectations," SAFE Working Paper Series 279, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    43. Sias, Richard & Starks, Laura T. & Turtle, H.J., 2023. "The negativity bias and perceived return distributions: Evidence from a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 627-657.
    44. Marco Angrisani & Michael D. Hurd & Erik Meijer, 2012. "Investment Decisions in Retirement: The Role of Subjective Expectations," Working Papers wp274, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    45. Charles Bellemare & Sabine Kröger & Kouamé Marius Sossou, 2018. "Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 153-176, October.
    46. Barth, Daniel & Papageorge, Nicholas W. & Thom, Kevin, 2017. "Genetic Ability, Wealth, and Financial Decision-Making," IZA Discussion Papers 10567, IZA Network @ LISER.
    47. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers WR-589, RAND Corporation.
    48. Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    49. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    50. Fabian Gouret, 2015. "What can we learn from the fifties?," Thema Working Papers 2015-20, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    51. Luc Arrondel & André Masson, 2017. "Why does household demand for shares decline during the crisis? The French case," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 155-177.
    52. Merkoulova, Yulia & Veld, Chris, 2022. "Does it pay to invest? The personal equity risk premium and stock market participation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    53. Galil, Koresh & Spivak, Avia & Tur-Sinai, Aviad, 2023. "Socioeconomic status and individual investors’ behavior during a financial crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    54. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Axel Wogrolly & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, 2019. "The dynamics of households' stock market beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 7602, CESifo.
    55. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    56. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    57. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Richard Sias & Laura Starks & Harry J. Turtle, 2020. "Molecular Genetics, Risk Aversion, Return Perceptions, and Stock Market Participation," NBER Working Papers 27638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    60. Miguel Ampudia & Michael Ehrmann, 2014. "Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households," Staff Working Papers 14-10, Bank of Canada.
    61. Ingar Haaland & Ole-Andreas Elvik Næss & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Misperceived Returns to Active Investing," CESifo Working Paper Series 10257, CESifo.
    62. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2024. "House price expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 379-398.
    63. Merkoulova, Yulia & Veld, Chris, 2022. "Why do individuals not participate in the stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    64. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    65. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    66. Tuukka Saarimaa, 2008. "Owner-Occupied Housing and Demand for Risky Financial Assets: Some Finnish Evidence," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 22-38, Spring.
    67. Anke D. Leroux & Vance L. Martin, 2025. "Life at the brink: Livelihood portfolios of the food insecure," Monash Economics Working Papers 2025-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    68. Koresh Galil & Avia Spivak & Aviad Tur-Sinai, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and Individual Investors’ Behavior during a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2311, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    69. Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations," CEBI working paper series 20-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    70. Müller, Helge & Schumacher, Christoph & Feess, Eberhard, 2011. "Gender behavior in betting markets," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    71. Armantier, Olivier & Foncel, Jérôme & Treich, Nicolas, 2023. "Insurance and Portfolio Decisions: Two Sides of the Same Coin?," TSE Working Papers 23-1425, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    72. von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin & Wogrolly, Axel, 2022. "Heterogeneity in households’ stock market beliefs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 232-247.
    73. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  63. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Identification and estimation of statistical functionals using incomplete data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 445-459, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Alfonsi, Livia & Namubiru, Mary & Spaziani, Sara, 2022. "Gender Gaps: Back and Here to Stay? Evidence from Skilled Ugandan Workers during COVID-19," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt44s4b2dk, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    2. Tatiana V. Komarova & Denis Nekipelov & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2011. "Identification, data combination and the risk of disclosure," CeMMAP working papers CWP38/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Livia Alfonsi & Mary Namubiru & Sara Spaziani, 2024. "Gender gaps: back and here to stay? Evidence from skilled Ugandan workers during COVID-19," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 999-1046, September.
    4. Patrick Schmidt & Matthias Katzfuss & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 728-743, September.
    5. Liu, Yu-Hsin, 2011. "Incorporating scatter search and threshold accepting in finding maximum likelihood estimates for the multinomial probit model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 130-138, May.
    6. Montiel Olea, José Luis & Nesbit, James, 2021. "(Machine) learning parameter regions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 716-744.
    7. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "Partial identification of nonlinear peer effects models with missing data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. McGovern, Mark E. & Canning, David & Bärnighausen, Till, 2018. "Accounting for non-response bias using participation incentives and survey design: An application using gift vouchers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 239-244.
    9. Lee, Y-Y. & Bhattacharya, D., 2018. "Applied Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice with Interval-data on Income," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1882, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Minna Genbäck & Elena Stanghellini & Xavier Luna, 2015. "Uncertainty intervals for regression parameters with non-ignorable missingness in the outcome," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 829-847, August.
    11. Lidan Grossmass, 2014. "Obtaining and Predicting the Bounds of Realized Correlations," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 191-226, September.
    12. Daniel Ober-Reynolds, 2024. "Robustness to missing data: breakdown point analysis," Papers 2406.06804, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    13. Rami V. Tabri & Mathew J. Elias, 2024. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance under Survey Nonresponse with Panel Data: Theory and an Evaluation of Poverty in Australia," Papers 2406.15702, arXiv.org.
    14. Denis Conniffe & Donal O’Neill, 2008. "An Efficient Estimator for Dealing with Missing Data on Explanatory Variables in a Probit Choice Model," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1960908.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    15. Esteban-Bravo, Mercedes & Vidal-Sanz, Jose M., 2007. "Worst-case estimation for econometric models with unobservable components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3330-3354, April.
    16. Conniffe, Denis & O'Neill, Donal, 2009. "Efficient Probit Estimation with Partially Missing Covariates," IZA Discussion Papers 4081, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
    18. Ana Belén Ramos-Guajardo, 2022. "A hierarchical clustering method for random intervals based on a similarity measure," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 229-261, March.
    19. Pudney, Stephen, 2009. "Participation in disability benefit programmes: a partial identification analysis of the British Attendance Allowance system," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-19, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Cunguara, Benedito & Darnhofer, Ika, 2011. "Assessing the impact of improved agricultural technologies on household income in rural Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 378-390, June.
    21. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Lin Zhu, 2013. "Set inferences and sensitivity analysis in semiparametric conditionally identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP55/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    22. Mark McGovern & David Canning & Till Bärnighausen, 2018. "Accounting for Non-Response Bias using Participation Incentives and Survey Design," CHaRMS Working Papers 18-02, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    23. Patrick Kline & Andres Santos, 2010. "Sensitivity to Missing Data Assumptions: Theory and An Evaluation of the U.S. Wage Structure," NBER Working Papers 15716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  64. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Search Profiling With Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 385-401, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  65. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension‐benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Okumura, Tsunao & 奥村, 綱雄 & Usui, Emiko & 臼井, 恵美子, 2012. "The Effect of Pension Reform on Pension-Benefit Expectations and Savings Decisions in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 559, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Bago d'Uva, Teresa & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2020. "Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations☆," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    3. María J. Prados & Arie Kapteyn, 2019. "Subjective Expectations, Social Security Benefits, and the Optimal Path to Retirement," Working Papers wp405, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Basiglio, Stefania, 2018. "Essays on financial behaviour of households and firms," Other publications TiSEM c13423c5-8bf2-44a7-baa7-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2013. "Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-84.
    6. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    7. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
    8. Toshio Fujimi & Hirokazu Tatano, 2013. "Promoting Seismic Retrofit Implementation Through “Nudge”: Using Warranty as a Driver," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1858-1883, October.
    9. van Santen, Peter, 2016. "Uncertain pension income and household saving," Working Paper Series 330, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    12. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice," Working Papers WR-782, RAND Corporation.
    13. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2019. "Pension Uncertainty and Demand for Retirement Saving," CSEF Working Papers 526, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    15. Markus Knell & Esther Segalla & Andrea Weber, 2015. "Expected retirement age and pension benefits in Austria: evidence from survey data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 35-57.
    16. Jochem Bresser & Arthur Soest, 2015. "Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 119-139, March.
    17. Marek Gora & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, 2020. "Migration with pension reform expectations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 203-219.
    18. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "Pension Risk, Retirement Saving and Insurance," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/18, European University Institute.
    19. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2013. "Pension Wealth Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1057-1085, December.
    20. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  66. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  67. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Profiling: Introduction to the Feature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 347-350, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Huseyin Cavusoglu & Young Kwark & Bin Mai & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2013. "Passenger Profiling and Screening for Aviation Security in the Presence of Strategic Attackers," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 63-81, March.
    2. Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3165, IZA Network @ LISER.

  68. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Optimal Search Profiling with Linear Deterrence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 122-126, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Randomizing Regulatory Approval for Adaptive Diversification and Deterrence," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 367-385.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," NBER Working Papers 11848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nicolás Grau & Damián Vergara, "undated". "A Simple Test for Prejudice in Decision Processes: The Prediction-Based Outcome Test," Working Papers wp493, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    4. Karlan, Dean & Morduch, Jonathan, 2010. "Access to Finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4703-4784, Elsevier.
    5. Juliano Assuncao & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," Working Papers tecipa-631, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

  69. Mark D. Manuszak & Charles F. Manski & Sanghamitra Das, 2005. "Walk or wait? An empirical analysis of street crossing decisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 529-548.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  70. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.

    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Schneider, Martin & Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2018. "Uncertainty is Change," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Balázs Zélity, 2024. "Seasonality and consumer confidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 813-821, July.
    3. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
    5. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Cupák, Andrej & Fessler, Pirmin & Hsu, Joanne W. & Paradowski, Piotr R., 2022. "Investor confidence and high financial literacy jointly shape investments in risky assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Jeff Dominitz & Angela Hung, 2006. "Retirement Savings Portfolio Management," Working Papers wp138, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2013. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," NBER Working Papers 18945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Brodeur, Abel & Yousaf, Hasin, 2019. "The Economics of Mass Shootings," IZA Discussion Papers 12728, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Lucia Dunn & Ida Mirzaie, 2004. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing," Working Papers 04-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Lockdowns, vaccines, and the economy: How economic perceptions were shaped during the COVID‐19 pandemic†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(3), pages 439-456, July.
    12. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    13. Maurizio Bovi, 2006. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," ISAE Working Papers 66, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    14. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovicka & Paul Ho, 2019. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," Working Paper 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Paolo Crosetto & Thomas de Haan, 2022. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Working Papers halshs-03816349, HAL.
    16. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2009. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Drop-out Decision," NBER Working Papers 14810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Drerup, Tilman H., 2019. "Eliciting subjective expectations for bivariate outcomes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 29-45.
    19. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse's mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. David A. Comerford, 2024. "Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 933-953, June.
    21. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2014. "From the Horse's Mouth: Economic Conditions and Investor Expectations of Risk and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 845-866, April.
    22. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Giuseppe Fiori & Filippo Scoccianti, 2021. "The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 630, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Evan M. Munro & Serena Ng, 2020. "Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations," NBER Working Papers 27182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Bucciol, Alessandro & Easaw, Joshy & Trucchi, Serena, 2025. "Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    28. Dées, Stéphane & Soares Brinca, Pedro, 2011. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1349, European Central Bank.
    29. Daniel Navarro-Martinez & Graham Loomes & Andrea Isoni & David Butler & Larbi Alaoui, 2018. "Boundedly rational expected utility theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 199-223, December.
    30. Jérémie BERTRAND & Laurent WEILL, 2020. "In December Days are Shorter but Loans are Cheaper," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2020-02, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    31. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers WR-589, RAND Corporation.
    32. Dmitri Vinogradov & Yousef Makhlouf, 2017. "Signaling Probabilities in Ambiguity: on the impact of vague news," Working Papers 2017_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    33. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    34. Mirjana Čižmešija & Zrinka Lukač & Marina Matošec, 2025. "Gaining confidence in the revised consumer confidence indicator: nonlinear optimization approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 517-547, July.
    35. Jahedi, Salar & Méndez, Fabio, 2014. "On the advantages and disadvantages of subjective measures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 97-114.
    36. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    37. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2011. "Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major," NBER Working Papers 16869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2012. "From the horse’s mouth: how do investor expectations of risk and return vary with economic conditions?," Working Paper Series WP-2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    39. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    41. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
    42. Stephen Bruestle & W. Mark Crain, 2015. "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2430-2444, May.
    43. Andreas Jonsson & Staffan Lindén, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 372, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    44. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    45. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
    46. Segers, Rene & Franses, Philip Hans & de Bruijn, Bert, 2017. "A novel approach to measuring consumer confidence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 121-129.
    47. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    48. Dmitri Vinogradov & Yousef Makhlouf, 2021. "Signaling probabilities in ambiguity: who reacts to vague news?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 371-404, May.
    49. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    50. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    51. Xiong, Youlin & Shen, Jun & Yoon, Seong-Min & Dong, Xiyong, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of the long-term correlation between stock and exchange rate markets in China: A DCC-MIDAS-X approach considering structural breaks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    52. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    53. Andrej Cupák & Pirmin Fessler & Joanne W. Hsu & Piotr R. Paradowski, 2020. "Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    54. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Nieves Carmona-González & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2024. "Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 323-344, June.
    55. Tilman H. Drerup & Matthias Wibral & Christian Zimpelmann, 2023. "Skewness expectations and portfolio choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 107-144, March.
    56. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    57. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Benjamin Baker & Murat Üngör, 2025. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Economic Sentiment: Evidence from Three Large Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 50-83, March.
    59. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.
    60. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1066, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    61. Bozzoli, Carlos & Brück, Tilman & Muhumuza, Tony, 2011. "Does war influence individual expectations?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 288-291.
    62. Han, Myat Su & Hampson, Daniel Peter & Wang, Yonggui & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Consumer confidence and green purchase intention: An application of the stimulus-organism-response model," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

  71. Daniel O. Scharfstein & Charles F. Manski & James C. Anthony, 2004. "On the Construction of Bounds in Prospective Studies with Missing Ordinal Outcomes: Application to the Good Behavior Game Trial," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 154-164, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Boes, 2013. "Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 81-109, February.
    2. Jiannan Lu & Peng Ding & Tirthankar Dasgupta, 2018. "Treatment Effects on Ordinal Outcomes: Causal Estimands and Sharp Bounds," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 43(5), pages 540-567, October.
    3. D. Todem & J. Fine & L. Peng, 2010. "A Global Sensitivity Test for Evaluating Statistical Hypotheses with Nonidentifiable Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 558-566, June.
    4. Matthew Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2016. "Partial independence in nonseparable models," CeMMAP working papers 26/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Jiannan Lu & Yunshu Zhang & Peng Ding, 2020. "Sharp bounds on the relative treatment effect for ordinal outcomes," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 664-669, June.
    6. D. Nitsch & B. L. DeStavola & S. M. B. Morton & D. A. Leon, 2006. "Linkage bias in estimating the association between childhood exposures and propensity to become a mother: an example of simple sensitivity analyses," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 493-505, July.
    7. Mullahy, John, 2018. "Individual results may vary: Inequality-probability bounds for some health-outcome treatment effects," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 151-162.
    8. Rhoads Christopher H., 2012. "Problems with Tests of the Missingness Mechanism in Quantitative Policy Studies," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Cunguara, Benedito & Darnhofer, Ika, 2011. "Assessing the impact of improved agricultural technologies on household income in rural Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 378-390, June.
    10. Paul Gustafson, 2007. "Measurement error modelling with an approximate instrumental variable," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(5), pages 797-815, November.

  72. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  73. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Social Learning from Private Experiences: The Dynamics of the Selection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 443-458.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio David Nieto, 2016. "Discriminación y diferenciales de salarios en el mercado laboral," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 115-134, January-J.
    2. Mengel, Friederike, 2008. "Matching structure and the cultural transmission of social norms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 608-623, September.
    3. Brice Romuald Gueyap Kounga, 2023. "Identification and Estimation of a Semiparametric Logit Model using Network Data," Papers 2310.07151, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    4. Franklin Simtowe & Solomon Asfaw & Tsedeke Abate, 2016. "Determinants of agricultural technology adoption under partial population awareness: the case of pigeonpea in Malawi," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Donna, Javier, 2023. "Redistributive Politics under Ambiguity," MPRA Paper 121046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galichon, Alfred & Henry, Marc, 2009. "A test of non-identifying restrictions and confidence regions for partially identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 186-196, October.
    8. Galichon, Alfred & Henry, Marc, 2013. "Dilation bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 109-115.
    9. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2005. "Identification of the Effects of Dynamic Treatments by Sequential Conditional Independence Assumptions," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-17, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    10. Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    12. Rafael Lalive & Alejandra Cattaneo, 2006. "Social Interactions and Schooling Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1787, CESifo.
    13. Samuli Leppälä, 2015. "Economic Analysis Of Knowledge: The History Of Thought And The Central Themes," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 263-286, April.
    14. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2009. "Adoption Curves and Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Simon Gleyze & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Expectation Formation, Local Sampling and Belief Traps: A new Perspective on Education Choices," Working Papers halshs-04154324, HAL.
    16. Leiter, Debra & Murr, Andreas & Rascón Ramírez, Ericka & Stegmaier, Mary, 2018. "Social networks and citizen election forecasting: The more friends the better," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 235-248.
    17. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
    18. Linda Datcher Loury, 2006. "All in the Extended Family: Effects of Grandparents, Aunts, and Uncles on Educational Attainment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 275-278, May.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Nathan Yang, 2011. "An Empirical Model of Industry Dynamics with Common Uncertainty and Learning from the Actions of Competitors," Working Papers 11-16, NET Institute.
    21. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Giulio Zanella, 2008. "Welfare Stigma or Information Sharing? Decomposing Social Interactions Effects in Social Benefit Use," Department of Economics University of Siena 531, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    22. Bryan S. Graham, 2014. "An econometric model of link formation with degree heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 20341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Giulio Zanella, 2004. "Social Interactions and Economic Behavior," Department of Economics University of Siena 441, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    24. Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Tsuyoshi Hatori & David Watling, 2014. "Dynamic process model of mass effects on travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 279-304, March.

  74. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  75. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.

    Cited by:

    1. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2019. "Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences," Papers 1908.01406, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    2. Yifan Gong & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2019. "Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 26334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adams-Prassl, Abigail & Andrew, Alison, 2019. "Preferences and Beliefs in the Marriage Market for Young Brides," CEPR Discussion Papers 13567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    5. Jürg Schweri & Stefan C. Wolter & Joop Hartog, 2008. "Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0011, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    6. Thierry Kalisa & Mary Riddel & W. Douglass Shaw, 2016. "Willingness to pay to avoid arsenic-related risks: a special regressor approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 143-162, July.
    7. Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, 2011. "Beliefs about overconfidence," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 475-500, April.
    8. Fabienne Femenia & Laure Latruffe & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2021. "Responsiveness of farm investment to price changes: Evidence from the French crop sector," Working Papers SMART 21-02, INRAE UMR SMART.
    9. Susan Godlonton & Rebecca L. Thornton, 2013. "Learning from Others' HIV Testing: Updating Beliefs and Responding to Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 439-444, May.
    10. David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas Parker, 2019. "Surveying Business Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hyndman, Kyle & Terracol, Antoine & Vaksmann, Jonathan, 2013. "Beliefs and (In)Stability in Normal-Form Games," MPRA Paper 47221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Joseph Briggs & Christopher Tonetti, 2019. "Risky Insurance: Insurance Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets," 2019 Meeting Papers 1388, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Thomas Demuynck & León Hennen, 2026. "The Hyperplane Model of Survey Response," Working Papers ECARES 2026-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Ersoy, Fulya Y., 2025. "Do incentives matter in elicitation of beliefs?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Costanigro, Marco & Scozzafava, Gabriele & Casini, Leonardo, 2019. "Vertical differentiation via multi-tier geographical indications and the consumer perception of quality: The case of Chianti wines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 246-259.
    16. Elias Tsakas, 2022. "Belief identification with state-dependent utilities," Papers 2203.10505, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    17. Kimmich, Christian & Fischbacher, Urs, 2016. "Behavioral determinants of supply chain integration and coexistence," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 55-77.
    18. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
    19. Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022. "Informative social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
    20. Fossen, Frank M. & Glocker, Daniela, 2017. "Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-25.
    21. Maria D. Tito, 2017. "Looking Inside the Magic 8 Ball : An Analysis of Sales Forecasts using Italian Firm-Level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Nick Bloom & Tobias Kretschmer & John Van Reenan, 2009. "Work-Life Balance, Management Practices and Productivity," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in the Business Practices and Productivity of Firms, pages 15-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2013. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," NBER Working Papers 19165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Jehiel, Philippe, 2015. "Investment strategy and selection bias: An equilibrium perspective on overconfidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Peter Backé & Elisabeth Beckmann, 2020. "What drives people’s expectations of euro adoption? – Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey on selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20, pages 57-79.
    27. Julian Emmler & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2022. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 621-661, July.
    28. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," NBER Working Papers 25496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Cameron, Trudy Ann & DeShazo, J.R., 2013. "Demand for health risk reductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 87-109.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
    32. Jensen, Robert & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2012. "Does staying in school (and not working) prevent teen smoking and drinking?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 644-657.
    33. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2025. "The formation of subjective house price expectations: the role of perceptions and local economic conditions," IFS Working Papers W25/58, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    34. Wei Huang & Xiaoyan Lei & Ang Sun, 2015. "The Great Expectations: Impact of One-Child Policy on Education of Girls," Working Papers id:7387, eSocialSciences.
    35. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W08/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    36. McKenzie, David, 2016. "Can Business Owners Form Accurate Counterfactuals? Eliciting Treatment and Control Beliefs about Their Outcomes in the Alternat," CEPR Discussion Papers 11280, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Kapteyn, A. & Kleinjans, K. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2008. "Intertemporal Consumption with Directly Measured Welfare Functions and Subjective Expectations," Other publications TiSEM 29e581de-6037-463c-b441-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    38. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    39. Block, Joern & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Priem, Maximilian & Stiel, Caroline, 2022. "Emergency-aid for self-employed in the Covid-19 pandemic: A flash in the pan?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    40. Andre Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 269-285, December.
      • André de Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, Uncertainty and Discrete Choice Models," Thema Working Papers 2008-02, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    41. Mark Dickie & Shelby Gerking & Wiktor Adamowicz & Marcella Veronesi, 2020. "Risk Perception, Learning and Willingness to Pay to Reduce Heart Disease Risks," Working Papers 11/2020, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    42. Chiara Binelli & Matthew Loveless, 2025. "Environmental actions, support for policy, and information’s provision: experimental evidence from the US," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-20, May.
    43. Moshe Ben-Akiva & André Palma & Daniel McFadden & Maya Abou-Zeid & Pierre-André Chiappori & Matthieu Lapparent & Steven Durlauf & Mogens Fosgerau & Daisuke Fukuda & Stephane Hess & Charles Manski & Ar, 2012. "Process and context in choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 439-456, June.
    44. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can households see into the future? Survey evidence from the Netherlands," SAFE Working Paper Series 233, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    45. Nick Bloom & Luis Garicano & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2009. "The Distinct Effects of Information Technology and Communication Technology on Firm Organization," CEP Discussion Papers dp0927, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    46. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Kaufmann, Katja M., 2014. "Education choices and returns to schooling: Mothers' and youths' subjective expectations and their role by gender," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 203-216.
    48. Joan Costa-i-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9424, CESifo.
    49. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., "undated". "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269751, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    50. Hyytinen, Ari & Pajarinen, Mika, 2005. "Why Are All New Entrepreneurs Better Than Average? Evidence from Subjective Failure Rate Expectations," Discussion Papers 987, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    51. Nick Huntington-Klein, 2021. "Human capital versus signaling is empirically unresolvable," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2499-2531, May.
    52. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2018. "Expectation formation in an evolving game of uncertainty: New experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 379-405.
    53. Necker, Sarah & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2016. "Household risk taking after the financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-160.
    54. Vaishali Zambre, 2018. "The Gender Gap in Wage Expectations: Do Young Women Trade off Higher Wages for Lower Wage Risk?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    55. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    56. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
    57. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    58. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    59. Evrenk, Haldun & Sher, Chien-Yuan, 2015. "Social interactions in voting behavior: distinguishing between strategic voting and the bandwagon effect," MPRA Paper 62794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Kuchler, Theresa & Zafar, Basit, 2015. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 9444, IZA Network @ LISER.
    61. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    62. Costanigro, Marco & Onozaka, Yuko, 2018. "A Belief-Preference Model of Choice for Experience and Credence Goods," Working Papers 276053, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    63. Hunt Allcott, 2011. "Consumers' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Energy Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 98-104, May.
    64. Elina Lampi, 2011. "What do friends and the media tell us? How different information channels affect women's risk perceptions of age-related female infertility," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 365-380, March.
    65. Kerwin, Jason & Pandey, Divya, 2023. "Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 16478, IZA Network @ LISER.
    66. Tine Janžek & Petra Ziherl, 2013. "Overview of models and methods for measuring economic agent’s expectations," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 172-179, Bank for International Settlements.
    67. Victor Olkhov, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," Papers 2009.14278, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    68. Moshe Buchinsky & Phillip Leslie, 2010. "Educational Attainment and the Changing U.S. Wage Structure: Dynamic Implications on Young Individuals' Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 541-594, July.
    69. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2015. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-41.
    70. Chin, Alycia & VanEpps, Eric M. & Scholl, Brian & Nash, Steven, 2025. "How should I know? Lack of confidence biases stock market expectations toward zero," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    71. Becker, Sascha O. & Bentolila, Samuel & Fernandes, Ana & Ichino, Andrea, 2005. "Youth Emancipation and Perceived Job Insecurity of Parents and Children," IZA Discussion Papers 1836, IZA Network @ LISER.
    72. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2018. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Working Papers 2018/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    73. Danilo Cavapozzi & Marco Francesconi & Cheti Nicoletti, 2024. "Dividing Housework between Partners: Individual Preferences and Social Norms," CESifo Working Paper Series 11413, CESifo.
    74. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne K. Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2021. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 9326, CESifo.
    75. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan, 2021. "Simple belief elicitation: An experimental evaluation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 137-155, April.
    76. Frederic Koessler & Ch. Noussair & A. Ziegelmeyer, 2005. "Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Thema Working Papers 2005-08, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    77. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0723, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    78. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    79. Luis G. Gonzalez & Vittoria Levati & Graciela Gonzalez-Farias, 2005. "Logit estimation of conditional cooperation in a repeated public goods experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2005-05, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    80. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    81. Möser, Sara & Glauser, David & Becker, Rolf, 2019. "Valuation of labour market entrance positions among (future) apprentices - Results from two discrete choice experiments," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    82. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-79.
    83. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg, 2016. "Subjective Expectations and Income Processes in Rural India," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 416-442, July.
    84. Kojevnikov, Denis & Song, Kyungchul, 2023. "Econometric inference on a large Bayesian game with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    85. Inoue, Ryosuke & Kawasaki, Kentaro, 2026. "Can objective information update subjective beliefs on sustainable farming? Evidence from a randomized experiment with Japanese rice farmers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    86. Stark, Oded & Nicinska, Anna, 2015. "How inheriting affects bequest plans," Discussion Papers 212931, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    87. Yiqun Chen & Frank Sloan, 2014. "Subjective Beliefs, Deterrence, and the Propensity to Drive While Intoxicated," NBER Working Papers 20680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment," Staff Reports 500, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    89. Siedler, Thomas & Rainer, Helmut, 2007. "Subjective income and employment expectations and preferences for redistribution," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-21, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    90. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
    91. Poinas, François & Méango, Romuald, 2023. "The (Option-)Value of Overstaying," TSE Working Papers 23-1478, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    92. Dammert, Ana C. & Galdo, Jose & Galdo, Virgilio, 2013. "Digital labor-market intermediation and job expectations: Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 112-116.
    93. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1423, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    94. Marco Bottone, 2025. "Comparing survey measures of firms’ expectations and uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 393-430, July.
    95. Romuald Meango & Marc Henry & Ismael Mourifie, 2025. "Combining stated and revealed preferences," Papers 2507.13552, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    96. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérangère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2022. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," Working Papers hal-03881619, HAL.
    97. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can subjective mortality expectations and stated preferences explain varying consumption and saving behaviors among the elderly?," MEA discussion paper series 06111, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    98. Stornik, Iris, 2025. "Expected Returns to Parenting Styles: Perceived Impacts on Educational Outcomes, Mental Health, and Self-Worth," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325447, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    99. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," IAB-Discussion Paper 202105, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    Cited by:

    1. Escario, José-Julián & Giménez-Nadal, J. Ignacio & Wilkinson, Anna V., 2022. "Predictors of adolescent truancy: The importance of cyberbullying, peer behavior, and parenting style," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Anja Köbrich León & Janosch Schobin, 2022. "Romance and the ozone layer: panel evidence on green behavior in couples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2101-2123, October.
    3. Cotti, Chad & Courtemanche, Charles & Maclean, Joanna Catherine & Nesson, Erik & Pesko, Michael F. & Tefft, Nathan W., 2022. "The effects of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette prices and tobacco product sales: Evidence from retail panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Montmartin, Benjamin & Herrera-Gómez, Marcos, 2023. "Spatial dependence in physicians’ prices and additional fees: Evidence from France," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. William Addessi & Ivan Etzo, 2024. "International immigration and final consumption expenditure composition," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(2), pages 427-454, May.
    6. Tibesigwa, Byela & Bezabih, Mintewab & Visser, Martine, 2022. "Boosting Climate-Smart Smallholder Farm Strategies and Household Outcomes through Joint Decision-Making by Men and Women in Agrarian Households in Arid Namibia," EfD Discussion Paper 22-3, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.

  77. Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2003. "Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 181-211, March.

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    1. Roni Frish, 2008. "The Effect of Child Allowances on Fertility in Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
    2. Sorvachev, Ilia & Yakovlev, Evgeny, 2020. "Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 13019, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Fang Li & Hongxu Ma & Suyan Shen, 2024. "Volunteering in China: How significant is the peer effect?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1848-1865, April.
    4. Evgenia Bystrov, 2012. "The Second Demographic Transition in Israel: One for All?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(10), pages 261-298.
    5. Sagit Bar-Gill & Chaim Fershtman, 2016. "Integration policy: Cultural transmission with endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 105-133, January.
    6. Merrouche, Ouarda, 2007. "The Long Term Impact of French Settlement on Education in Algeria," Working Paper Series 2007:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    7. Monstad, Karin & Propper, Carol & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2011. "Is teenage motherhood contagious? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 12/2011, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. Bar-Gill, Sagit & Fershtman, Chaim, 2012. "Integration Policy: Cultural Transmission with Endogenous Fertility," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275776, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Iyer, S. & Weeks, M., 2009. "Social Interactions, Ethnicity and Fertility in Kenya," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0903, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Jona Schellekens, 2009. "Family allowances and fertility: Socioeconomic differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(3), pages 451-468, August.
    11. Angrist, Joshua & Lavy, Victor & Schlosser, Analia, 2010. "Multiple Experiments for the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275744, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Joao Pedro Azevedo & Marta Favara & Sarah E. Haddock & Luis F. Lopez-Calva & Miriam Muller & Elizaveta Perova, 2012. "Teenage Pregnancy and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean : On Teenage Fertility Decisions, Poverty and Economic Achievement [Embarazo adolescente y oportunidades en América Latina y el Caribe : sobre maternidad temprana, pobreza y lo," World Bank Publications - Reports 16978, The World Bank Group.
    13. Jiabin Wu, 2021. "Stochastic Value Formation," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 597-611, September.
    14. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2013. "Child Allowances, Educational Subsidies and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 51279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Spiro, Daniel & Michaeli, Moti, 2016. "The dynamics of revolutions," Memorandum 16/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. O Sarid & V Slonim-Nevo & A Pereg & M Friger & R Sergienko & D Schwartz & D Greenberg & I Shahar & E Chernin & H Vardi & L Eidelman & A Segal & G Ben-Yakov & N Gaspar & D Munteanu & A Rozental & A Mus, 2017. "Coping strategies, satisfaction with life, and quality of life in Crohn’s disease: A gender perspective using structural equation modeling analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, February.
    17. Cheung, Man-Wah & Wu, Jiabin, 2018. "On the probabilistic transmission of continuous cultural traits," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 300-323.
    18. Sagit Bar-Gill & Chaim Fershtman, 2016. "Integration policy: Cultural transmission with endogenous fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 105-133, January.
    19. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    20. Áureo de Paula, 2016. "Econometrics of network models," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    21. Atkin, David & Colson-Sihra, Eve & Shayo, Moses, 2019. "How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 13653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. te Velde, Vera L. & Louis, Winnifred, 2022. "Conformity to descriptive norms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 204-222.
    23. Thorsten Janus, 2013. "The political economy of fertility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 493-505, June.
    24. Hazan, Moshe & Simhon, Avi & Ebenstein, Avraham, 2011. "Raising the Financial Costs of Children and Fertility Responses: Evidence from the Kibbutz," CEPR Discussion Papers 8634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Miranda, Alfonso & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2020. "Econometric Models of Fertility," GLO Discussion Paper Series 574, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    26. Michaeli, Moti & Spiro, Daniel, 2013. "The Distribution of Individual Conformity under Social Pressure across Societies," Memorandum 12/2014, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    27. Assaf Razin, 2017. "Israel's High Fertility Rate and Anemic Skill Acquisition," CESifo Working Paper Series 6455, CESifo.
    28. te Velde, Vera L., 2022. "Heterogeneous norms: Social image and social pressure when people disagree," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 319-340.
    29. Asphjell, Magne K. & Hensvik, Lena & Nilsson, J. Peter, 2013. "Businesses, Buddies, and Babies: Fertility and Social Interactions at Work," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2013:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    30. Blume, Lawrence E. & Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Jayaraman, Rajshri, 2013. "Linear Social Interactions Models," Economics Series 298, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    31. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2019. "Fertility and Modernity," NBER Working Papers 25957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Nicoletta Balbo & Nicola Barban & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Friend and peer effects on entry into marriage and parenthood: A multiprocess approach," Working Papers 056, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    33. Abhishek Kumar & Valeria Bordone & Raya Muttarak, 2016. "Like Mother(-in-Law) Like Daughter? Influence of the Older Generation’s Fertility Behaviours on Women’s Desired Family Size in Bihar, India," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 629-660, December.
    34. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    35. Ciliberto, Federico & Miller, Amalia & Skyt Nielsen, Helena & Simonsen, Marianne, 2013. "Playing the Fertility Game at Work: An Equilibrium Model of Peer Effects," MPRA Paper 45914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Michaeli, Moti & Spiro, Daniel, 2015. "Norm conformity across societies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 51-65.
    37. Ao, Wallice & Wu, Jiabin, 2020. "The silent majority?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    38. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2015. "Child allowances, educational subsidies and occupational choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-342.
    39. Cohen, Alma & Dehejia, Rajeev & Romanov, Dmitri, 2008. "Do Financial Incentives Affect Fertility?," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275719, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    40. Marianna BATTAGLIA & Bastien CHABÉ-FERRET & Lara LEBEDINSKI, 2021. "Segregation, fertility, and son preference: the case of the Roma in Serbia," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 233-260, June.
    41. Ebenstein, Avraham & Hazan, Moshe & Simhon, Avi, 2014. "Changing the Cost of Children and Fertility: Evidence from the Israeli Kibbutz," Discussion Papers 164526, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
    42. Shi, Yuxing & Cai, Yu & Zhao, Minjuan, 2021. "Social interaction effect of rotational grazing and its policy implications for sustainable use of grassland: Evidence from pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    43. Ilia Sorvachev & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2019. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0254, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

  78. Manski, Charles F., 2002. "Identification of decision rules in experiments on simple games of proposal and response," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 880-891, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Hyndman, Kyle & Terracol, Antoine & Vaksmann, Jonathan, 2013. "Beliefs and (In)Stability in Normal-Form Games," MPRA Paper 47221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2021. "Biases in Belief Reports," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242458, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Bellemare, C. & Kroger, S. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2008. "Measuring inequity aversion in a heterogeneous population using experimental decisions and subjective probabilities," Other publications TiSEM f17bda32-98f9-4580-ab3f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Moshe Ben-Akiva & André Palma & Daniel McFadden & Maya Abou-Zeid & Pierre-André Chiappori & Matthieu Lapparent & Steven Durlauf & Mogens Fosgerau & Daisuke Fukuda & Stephane Hess & Charles Manski & Ar, 2012. "Process and context in choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 439-456, June.
    5. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "Eliciting Beliefs: Proper Scoring Rules, Incentives, Stakes and Hedging," TSE Working Papers 10-156, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Bornhorst, Fabian & Ichino, Andrea & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Schlag, Karl H. & Winter, Eyal, 2004. "How do people play a repeated trust game? : Experimental evidence," Papers 04-43, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    7. Bellemare, Charles & Kröger, Sabine & van Soest, Arthur, 2005. "Actions and Beliefs: Estimating Distribution-Based Preferences Using a Large Scale Experiment with Probability Questions on Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 1666, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Güth, Werner & Kliemt, Hartmut, 2010. "What ethics can learn from experimental economics -- If anything," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 302-310, September.
    9. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2008. "Learning About Academic Ability and the College Drop-Out Decision," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20086, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    10. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment," Staff Reports 500, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel von der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for your Thoughts: A Survey of Methods of Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers vie1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    12. Mengel, F. & Sciubba, E., 2010. "Extrapolation in games of coordination and dominance solvable games," Research Memorandum 034, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    13. Alexander W. Cappelen & Astri Drange Hole & Erik Ø Sørensen & Bertil Tungodden, 2007. "The Pluralism of Fairness Ideals: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 818-827, June.
    14. Bellemare, C. & Kroger, S. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2007. "Preferences, Intentions, and Expectations : A Large-Scale Experiment With a Representative Subject Pool," Discussion Paper 2007-64, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Manski, Charles F. & Neri, Claudia, 2013. "First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 232-254.
    16. Burks, Stephen V. & Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Götte, Lorenz, 2006. "Performance Pay and the Erosion of Worker Cooperation: Field Experimental Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 2013, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2019. "Biases in Beliefs," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203601, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Jim Engle-Warnick & Bradley Ruffle, 2006. "The Strategies Behind Their Actions: A Method To Infer Repeated-Game Strategies And An Application To Buyer Behavior," Departmental Working Papers 2005-04, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    19. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Matilde Giaccherini & Giovanni Ponti, 2018. "Preference Based Subjective Beliefs," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, July.
    21. Konstadinos G. Goulias & Ram M. Pendyala, 2014. "Choice context," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 5, pages 101-130, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
    23. Anke Becker & Thomas Deckers & Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2012. "The Relationship between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures," CESifo Working Paper Series 3785, CESifo.
    24. Charles Bellemare & Luc Bissonnette & Sabine Kroger, 2007. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations using Probability Questions -An Application to the Investment Game-," Cahiers de recherche 0734, CIRPEE.
    25. Cabrales, Antonio & Miniaci, Raffaele & Piovesan, Marco & Ponti, Giovanni, 2007. "An experiment on markets and contracts : do social preferences determine corporate culture?," UC3M Working papers. Economics we072010, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    26. Lopera Baena, Maria Adelaida, 2016. "Evidence of Conditional and Unconditional Cooperation in a Public Goods Game: Experimental Evidence from Mali," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145797, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    27. Antonio Cabrales & Raffaele Miniaci & Marco Piovesan & Giovanni Ponti, 2010. "Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2261-2278, December.
    28. Bellemare, Charles & Kröger, Sabine & van Soest, Arthur, 2011. "Preferences, intentions, and expectation violations: A large-scale experiment with a representative subject pool," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 349-365, May.
    29. David Gbaguidi, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119.
    30. Basit Zafar, 2010. "Double majors: one for me, one for the parents?," Staff Reports 478, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    31. Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Matthews, Peter Hans, 2005. "Norm Enforcement: Anger, Indignation or Reciprocity?," IZA Discussion Papers 1583, IZA Network @ LISER.
    32. Lejarraga, Tomás & Lucena, Abel & Rubí-Barceló, Antoni, 2020. "Beliefs estimated from choices in Proposer-Responder Games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 442-459.
    33. Blume, Lawrence E. & Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2010. "Identification of Social Interactions," Economics Series 260, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    34. Laurens Cherchye & Thomas Demuynck & Bram De Rock & Mikhail Freer, 2019. "Revealed Preference Analysis of Expected Utility Maximization under Prize-Probability Trade-Offs," Working Papers ECARES 2019-27, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    35. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Papa Stefano, 2013. "Measuring trust, reciprocity and altruism by counterfactuals," wp.comunite 0099, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    36. Neri, Claudia, 2012. "Eliciting Beliefs in Continuous-Choice Games: A Double Auction Experiment," Economics Working Paper Series 1207, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Dec 2012.
    37. Slosse, Wannes & Mutuku, Kennedy Vaati & de Clercq, Michaël & D’Haese, Marijke & Schoors, Koen & Buysse, Jeroen, 2025. "Uncertainty and inequality preferences in the Ultimatum Game: A case study on Kenyan smallholder farmers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    38. James Andreoni & Marco Castillo & Ragan Petrie, 2005. "Revealing Preferences for Fairness in Ultimatum Bargaining," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000807, UCLA Department of Economics.
    39. Bao, Te & Duffy, John & Hommes, Cars, 2013. "Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-204.
    40. Kröger, Sabine & Pierrot, Thibaud, 2019. "What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2019-212, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    41. ,, 2005. "Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Burks, Stephen & Carpenter, Jeffrey & Goette, Lorenz, 2009. "Performance pay and worker cooperation: Evidence from an artefactual field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 458-469, June.
    43. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Papa Stefano, 2014. "Trust and reciprocity: Extensions and robustness of triadic design," wp.comunite 0111, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    44. Anna Conte & Peter G. Moffatt & Fabrizio Botti & Daniela T. Di Cagno & Carlo d'Ippoliti, 2011. "A Test of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using data from a Natural Experiment," Post-Print hal-00718703, HAL.
    45. Colin Camerer & Teck H Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong & Keith Weigelt, 2003. "Strategic teaching and equilibrium models of repeated trust and entry games," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics.
    46. Cherchye, Laurens & Demuynck, Thomas & De Rock, Bram & Freer, Mikhail, 2022. "Revealed preference analysis of expected utility maximization under prize-probability trade-offs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    47. Dominik Bauer & Irenaeus Wolff, 2018. "Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence," TWI Research Paper Series 109, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    48. Binmore, Ken & Shaked, Avner, 2010. "Experimental economics: Where next?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 87-100, January.
    49. Federica Alberti & Anna Conte & Kei Tsutsui, 2014. "Accuracy of proposers' beliefs in an allocation-type game," Jena Economics Research Papers 2014-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    50. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Papa Stefano, 2012. "The triadic design to identify trust and reciprocity: Extensions and robustness," wp.comunite 0096, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    51. Rutstrom, E. Elizabet & Wilcox, Nathaniel, 2008. "Stated versus inferred beliefs: A methodological inquiry and experimental test," MPRA Paper 11852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Rutström, E. Elisabet & Wilcox, Nathaniel T., 2009. "Stated beliefs versus inferred beliefs: A methodological inquiry and experimental test," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 616-632, November.
    53. Basit Zafar, 2010. "Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? Evidence on cognitive biases," Staff Reports 454, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    54. Ham, John C. & Kagel, John H. & Lehrer, Steven F., 2005. "Randomization, endogeneity and laboratory experiments: the role of cash balances in private value auctions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 175-205.
    55. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    56. Jason Abaluck & Giovanni Compiani, 2020. "A Method to Estimate Discrete Choice Models that is Robust to Consumer Search," NBER Working Papers 26849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Montizaan, R.M. & Vendrik, M.C.M., 2012. "Misery loves company: exogenous shocks in retirement expectations and social comparison effects on subjective well-being," Research Memorandum 048, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    58. Olivier Armantier & Nicolas Treich, 2006. "Overbidding in Independant Private-Values Auctions and Misperception of Probabilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-15, CIRANO.
    59. Keser, Claudia & Montmarquette, Claude, 2008. "Voluntary contributions to reduce expected public losses," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(3-4), pages 477-491, June.

  79. Philip J. Cross & Charles F. Manski, 2002. "Regressions, Short and Long," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 357-368, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  80. Charles F. Manski & John Newman & John V. Pepper, 2002. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 26(4), pages 355-381, August.

    Cited by:

    1. John V. Pepper, 2002. "To Train or Not To Train: Optimal Treatment Assignment Rules Using Welfare-to-Work Experiments," Virginia Economics Online Papers 356, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
    2. John V. Pepper, 2003. "Using Experiments to Evaluate Performance Standards: What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
    3. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.

  81. Charles F. Manski & Elie Tamer, 2002. "Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 519-546, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Kaido, 2014. "Asymptotically efficient estimation of weighted average derivatives with an interval censored variable," CeMMAP working papers 03/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Colubi, Ana & Ramos-Guajardo, Ana Belén, 2023. "Fuzzy sets and (fuzzy) random sets in Econometrics and Statistics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 84-98.
    3. Menzel, Konrad, 2014. "Consistent estimation with many moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 329-350.
    4. Jun, Sung Jae & Pinkse, Joris & Xu, Haiqing, 2011. "Tighter bounds in triangular systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 122-128, April.
    5. Andrew Chesher, 2007. "Endogeneity and discrete outcomes," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Donald W.K. Andrews & Sukjin Han, 2008. "Invalidity of the Bootstrap and the m Out of n Bootstrap for Interval Endpoints Defined by Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1671, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Paul Novosad & Charlie Rafkin & Sam Asher, 2022. "Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1-34, October.
    8. Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Bracketing effects in categorized survey questions and the measurement of economic quantities," Papers 02-35, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    9. Bontemps, Christian & Magnac, Thierry & Maurin, Eric, 2007. "Set Identified Linear Models," IDEI Working Papers 494, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    10. Donald W.K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2010. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1761R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2012.
    11. Bramoullé, Yann & Boucher, Vincent, 2020. "Binary Outcomes and Linear Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Gu, Jiaying & Russell, Thomas M., 2023. "Partial identification in nonseparable binary response models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 528-562.
    13. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models," NBER Working Papers 14882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Le-Yu Chen & Sokbae Lee, 2016. "Best Subset Binary Prediction," Papers 1610.02738, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    15. Vira Semenova, 2023. "Debiased Machine Learning of Aggregated Intersection Bounds and Other Causal Parameters," Papers 2303.00982, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    16. Gafarov, Bulat, 2025. "Simple subvector inference on sharp identified set in affine models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    17. Matthew Gentry & Tong Li, 2012. "Identification in auctions with selective entry," CeMMAP working papers 38/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Andrew Chesher & Adam Rosen, 2016. "Characterizations of identified sets delivered by structural econometric models," CeMMAP working papers CWP44/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Dovonon, Prosper, 2008. "Conditionally heteroskedastic factor models with skewness and leverage effects," MPRA Paper 40206, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    20. Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007. "Validity of Subsampling and "Plug-in Asymptotic" Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1620, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    22. Cheti Nicoletti, 2010. "Poverty analysis with missing data: alternative estimators compared," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
    23. Andrew Chesher & Adam Rosen & Konrad Smolinski, 2011. "An instrumental variable model of multiple discrete choice," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    24. Kate Ho & Adam Rosen, 2015. "Partial identification in applied research: benefits and challenges," CeMMAP working papers 64/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    25. Haile,P.A. & Tamer,E.T., 2000. "Inference with an incomplete model of English auctions," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    26. Hong, Han & Tamer, Elie, 2003. "Endogenous binary choice model with median restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 219-225, August.
    27. Jad Beyhum & Jean-Pierre FLorens & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2020. "Nonparametric instrumental regression with right censored duration outcomes," Papers 2011.10423, arXiv.org.
    28. Arun Chandrasekhar & Victor Chernozhukov & Francesca Molinari & Paul Schrimpf, 2012. "Inference for best linear approximations to set identified functions," CeMMAP working papers CWP43/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    29. Matthew Gentry & Tong Li, 2014. "Identification in Auctions With Selective Entry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 315-344, January.
    30. Jiaying Gu & Thomas M. Russell, 2021. "Partial Identification in Nonseparable Binary Response Models with Endogenous Regressors," Papers 2101.01254, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    31. Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    32. Hiroaki Kaido & Francesca Molinari & Jorg Stoye, 2017. "Confidence intervals for projections of partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers 49/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    33. Lina Zhang & David T. Frazier & D. S. Poskitt & Xueyan Zhao, 2020. "Decomposing Identification Gains and Evaluating Instrument Identification Power for Partially Identified Average Treatment Effects," Papers 2009.02642, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    34. Jiang, Wenxin, 2017. "On limiting distribution of quasi-posteriors under partial identification," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 60-72.
    35. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "Partial identification of nonlinear peer effects models with missing data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-18, December.
    36. Wang, Xun & Zhang, Zhongzhan & Li, Shoumei, 2016. "Set-valued and interval-valued stationary time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 208-223.
    37. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    38. Andrew Chesher & Adam Rosen, 2019. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models, Methods, and Applications," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    39. Arie Beresteanu, 2020. "Quantile Regression with Interval Data," Working Paper 6899, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    40. Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Jinyong Hahn & Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Identification and estimation of marginal effects in nonlinear panel models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    41. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé & Ali Hortaçsu & Joonhwi Joo, 2020. "Random-Coefficients Logit Demand Estimation with Zero-Valued Market Shares," Working Papers 2020-13, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    42. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Javier Arroyo & Carlos Mate, 2011. "Forecasting with Interval and Histogram Data. Some Financial Applications," Working Papers 201438, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    43. Susanne M. Schennach, 2012. "Measurement error in nonlinear models - a review," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    44. Kyoo il Kim, 2006. "Semiparametric Estimation of Signaling Games," Labor Economics Working Papers 22452, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    45. Gerard, François & Rokkanen, Miikka & Rothe, Christoph, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable," CEPR Discussion Papers 11048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Lee, Y-Y. & Bhattacharya, D., 2018. "Applied Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice with Interval-data on Income," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1882, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    47. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2005. "Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1239-1276, December.
    48. Thierry Magnac & Eric Maurin, 2004. "Partial Identification in Monotone Binary Models : Discrete Regressors and Interval Data," Working Papers 2004-11, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    49. Schennach, Susanne M., 2020. "Mismeasured and unobserved variables," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 487-565, Elsevier.
    50. Lewbel, Arthur & McFadden, Daniel & Linton, Oliver, 2011. "Estimating features of a distribution from binomial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 170-188, June.
    51. Aradillas-Lopez, Andres, 2024. "Inference in models with partially identified control functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    52. Denis Chetverikov, 2012. "Adaptive test of conditional moment inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP36/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    53. Chen, Songnian & Zhang, Hanghui, 2015. "Binary quantile regression with local polynomial smoothing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 24-40.
    54. Giulia BETTIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2010. "Interval Regression Models with;Endogenous Explanatory Variables," Working Papers 339, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    55. Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro & Giorgio Topa, 2011. "The empirical content of models with multiple equilibria in economies with social interactions," Staff Reports 504, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    56. Li, Tong & Oka, Tatsushi, 2015. "Set identification of the censored quantile regression model for short panels with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 363-377.
    57. Gloria Gonzalez‐Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Prediction regions for interval‐valued time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-390, June.
    58. Charles Bellemare & Luc Bissonnette & Sabine Kröger, 2010. "Bounding Preference Parameters under Different Assumptions about Beliefs: a Partial Identification Approach," Cahiers de recherche 1017, CIRPEE.
    59. Stefan Boes, 2009. "Bounds on Counterfactual Distributions Under Semi-Monotonicity Constraints," SOI - Working Papers 0920, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    60. Jason Cook & James McDonald, 2013. "Partially Adaptive Estimation of Interval Censored Regression Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 119-131, June.
    61. Bellemare, Charles & Sebald, Alexander, 2019. "Measuring Belief-Dependent Preferences without Information about Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 12153, IZA Network @ LISER.
    62. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2006. "Asymptotic properties for a class of partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    63. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Shi, Xiaoxia, 2014. "Nonparametric inference based on conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 31-45.
    64. Adam Rosen, 2006. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    65. Susan Athey & Dean Eckles & Guido W. Imbens, 2015. "Exact P-values for Network Interference," NBER Working Papers 21313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Partial Identification of Probability Distributions with Misclassified Data," Working Papers 05-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    67. Arun Chandrasekhar & Victor Chernozhukov & Francesca Molinari & Paul Schrimpf, 2019. "Best linear approximations to set identified functions: with an application to the gender wage gap," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    68. Xiaohong Chen & Matthew Gentry & Tong Li & Jingfeng Lu, 2020. "Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk Averse Bidders and Selective Entry," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2257, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    69. Gaurab Aryal & Isabelle Perrigne & Quang Vuong, 2011. "Identification of Insurance Models with Multidimensional Screening," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-538, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    70. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Maurel, Arnaud, 2009. "Inference on a Generalized Roy Model, with an Application to Schooling Decisions in France," IZA Discussion Papers 4606, IZA Network @ LISER.
    71. Liao, Yuan & Simoni, Anna, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," MPRA Paper 43262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Cantillon, Estelle & Pesendorfer, Martin, 2013. "Combination bidding in multi-unit auctions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    17. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & van Kooten, G. Cornelis & van Soest, Daan P., 2017. "Technological innovation and dispersion: Environmental benefits and the adoption of improved biomass cookstoves in Tigrai, northern Ethiopia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 337-345.
    18. Toiba, Hery & Noor, Arif Yustian Maulana & Rahman, Moh Shadiqur & Hartono, Rachman & Asmara, Rosihan & Retnoningsih, Dwi, . "Consumers’ Preference and Future Consideration Toward Organic Instant Noodles: Evidence from Indonesia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 15(01).
    19. Maria Eugenia Sanin, 2016. "Tradable emission permits: beyond pollution abatement motives," Documents de recherche 16-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    20. Sfeir, Georges & Abou-Zeid, Maya & Rodrigues, Filipe & Pereira, Francisco Camara & Kaysi, Isam, 2021. "Latent class choice model with a flexible class membership component: A mixture model approach," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  83. Charles F. Manski, 2001. "Designing Programs for Heterogeneous Populations: The Value of Covariate Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 103-106, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Kauhanen, Antti, 2018. "The Effects of an Education-Leave Program on Educational Attainment and Labor-Market Outcomes," ETLA Working Papers 56, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Michael Lechner & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20031, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    3. Toivanen, Otto & Takalo, Tuomas & Tanayama, Tanja, 2017. "Welfare Effects of R&D Support Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sabrina Bruyneel & Laurens Cherchye & Sam Cosaert & Bram De Rock & Siegfried Dewitte, 2012. "Are the Smart Kids More Rational ?," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-050, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Lina Zhang, 2020. "Spillovers of Program Benefits with Missing Network Links," Papers 2009.09614, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    6. Guido M. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 14251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Smith, Jeffrey, 2002. "Introduction," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 137-141, April.
    8. Guido Imbens, 2014. "Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician's Perspective," NBER Working Papers 19983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andersen, Signe Hald, 2011. "Exiting unemployment: How do program effects depend on individual coping strategies?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 248-258, March.

  84. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 2000. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 447-479.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  85. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  86. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations," CeMMAP working papers 03/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Stefan Boes, 2013. "Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 81-109, February.
    5. Toru Kitagawa, 2011. "Inference and decision for set identified parameters using posterior lower and upper probabilities," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Eduardo Zambrano, 2024. "Inequality Sensitive Optimal Treatment Assignment," Papers 2409.14776, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    7. Juliano Assunção & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," NBER Working Papers 25636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Denis Nekipelov & Minjung Park, 2016. "Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 271-323, December.
    9. Lechner, Michael & Frölich, Markus & Behncke, Stefanie, 2007. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from A Randomised Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Masahiro Kato & Masaaki Imaizumi & Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2023. "Asymptotically Optimal Fixed-Budget Best Arm Identification with Variance-Dependent Bounds," Papers 2302.02988, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    11. Melenberg, B. & Vollebergh, H.R.J. & Dijkgraaf, E., 2011. "Grazing the Commons : Global Carbon Emissions Forever?," Other publications TiSEM 1f28c201-db53-4c07-a2cd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Aeberhard, Romain & Coudin, Elise & Rathelot, Roland, 2016. "The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 290, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Kline, Patrick & Walters, Christopher, 2019. "Audits as Evidence: Experiments, Ensembles, and Enforcement," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3z72m9kn, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    14. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2025. "Leave No One Undermined: Policy Targeting with Regret Aversion," Papers 2506.16430, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    15. Charles F. Manski, 2012. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Garbero, Alessandra & Sakos, Grayson & Cerulli, Giovanni, 2023. "Towards data-driven project design: Providing optimal treatment rules for development projects," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Gadi Barlevy, 2009. "Policymaking under uncertainty: Gradualism and robustness," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 38-55.
    18. Kindy R. Sjahrir, 2018. "Formulating Regional Competitiveness Fiscal Policy based upon Leverage Factors for Indonesian Data," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2018.
    19. Charles F. Manski & John Newman & John V. Pepper, 2002. "Using Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with Incomplete Outcome Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 26(4), pages 355-381, August.
    20. Benedikt Koch & Kosuke Imai, 2025. "Statistical Decision Theory with Counterfactual Loss," Papers 2505.08908, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    21. Ishihara, Takuya & Kurisu, Daisuke, 2025. "Shrinkage methods for treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
    22. Tuomas Takalo & Tanja Tanayama & Otto Toivanen, 2005. "Selection Or Self-Rejection? Applications Into A Treatment," Industrial Organization 0510002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Kohei Yata, 2021. "Optimal Decision Rules Under Partial Identification," Papers 2111.04926, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    24. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    25. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2008. "The Experimental Approach to Development Economics," NBER Working Papers 14467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    27. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    28. Takuya Ishihara & Daisuke Kurisu, 2022. "Shrinkage Methods for Treatment Choice," Papers 2210.17063, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    29. Singer, Marcos & Donoso, Patricio & Rodríguez-Sickert, Carlos, 2008. "A static model of cooperation for group-based incentive plans," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 492-501, October.
    30. Oscar Mitnik, 2008. "How do Training Programs Assign Participants to Training? Characterizing the Assignment Rules of Government Agencies for Welfare-to-Work Programs in California," Working Papers 0907, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    31. Vollebergh, Herman R.J. & Melenberg, Bertrand & Dijkgraaf, Elbert, 2009. "Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: The case of pollution and income," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 27-42, July.
    32. Basu, Anirban, 2015. "Welfare implications of learning through solicitation versus diversification in health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 165-173.
    33. Patrick Kline & Christopher Walters, 2021. "Reasonable Doubt: Experimental Detection of Job‐Level Employment Discrimination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 765-792, March.
    34. Walters, Christopher, 2024. "Empirical Bayes methods in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    35. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 11-21, July.
    36. Ricardo Hausmann & Bailey Klinger & Rodrigo Wagner, 2008. "Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice: A 'Mindbook'," CID Working Papers 177, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    37. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    38. Matthew A. Masten, 2023. "Minimax-regret treatment rules with many treatments," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 501-537, October.
    39. Ekpeyong, Paul, 2024. "Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Policy Analysis Frameworks: A Bayesian Averaging Approach combining computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model with Metamodelling Techniques," MPRA Paper 121806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Gadi Barlevy, 2010. "Robustness and macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series WP-2010-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    41. Nan Liu & Yanbo Liu & Yuya Sasaki & Yuanyuan Wan, 2025. "Nonparametric Uniform Inference in Binary Classification and Policy Values," Papers 2511.14700, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    42. Charles F. Manski, 2016. "Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment," NBER Working Papers 22643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Manski, Charles F., 2007. "Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 105-115, July.
    44. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2025. "Policy Learning for Many Outcomes of Interest: Combining Optimal Policy Trees with Multi-objective Bayesian Optimisation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 971-1001, August.
    45. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Robust Forecasting," Papers 2011.03153, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    46. Masahiro Kato, 2023. "Worst-Case Optimal Multi-Armed Gaussian Best Arm Identification with a Fixed Budget," Papers 2310.19788, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    47. Stefan Boes, 2009. "Partial Identification of Discrete Counterfactual Distributions with Sequential Update of Information," SOI - Working Papers 0918, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    48. Otsu, Taisuke, 2008. "Large deviation asymptotics for statistical treatment rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 53-56, October.
    49. Guido M. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 14251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald," NBER Working Papers 26596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
    52. Lihua Lei & Roshni Sahoo & Stefan Wager, 2023. "Policy Learning under Biased Sample Selection," Papers 2304.11735, arXiv.org.
    53. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    55. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
    56. Takahiro Hoshino & Keisuke Takahata, 2018. "Identification of heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of potential untreated outcome under the nonignorable assignment condition," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2018-005, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    57. Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice," Papers 2108.06473, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    58. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    60. Christopher Walters, 2024. "Empirical Bayes Methods in Labor Economics," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2422, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    61. Jeffry Jacob & Abdul Munasib, 2020. "Do social networks promote homeownership?," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 189-230, June.
    62. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," NBER Working Papers 11848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    63. Jörg Stoye, 2011. "Statistical decisions under ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 129-148, February.
    64. Muller, Sean, 2014. "Randomised trials for policy: a review of the external validity of treatment effects," SALDRU Working Papers 127, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    65. Hayashi, Takashi, 2008. "Regret aversion and opportunity dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 242-268, March.
    66. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    67. Qin, Duo, 2015. "Resurgence of the endogeneity-backed instrumental variable methods," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 9, pages 1-35.
    68. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2022. "Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 187-221.
    69. Herman R.J. Vollebergh & Bertrand Melenberg & Elbert Dijkgraaf, 2007. "Identifying Reduced-Form Relations with Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-072/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    70. Masahiro Kato & Masaaki Imaizumi & Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2022. "Best Arm Identification with Contextual Information under a Small Gap," Papers 2209.07330, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    71. Stoye, Jörg, 2009. "Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 70-81, July.
    72. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2013. "Ambiguity, data and preferences for information – A case-based approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1433-1462.
    73. Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2016. "Panel Asymptotics and Statistical Decision Theory," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 33-49, March.
    74. Maria Salgano, 2006. "Choosing to Have Less Choice," Working Papers 2006.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    75. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2010. "Case-based belief formation under ambiguity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 161-177, November.
    76. Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks," NBER Working Papers 11675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    77. Bas van der Klaauw & Sandra Vriend, 2015. "A Nonparametric Method for Predicting Survival Probabilities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-126/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    78. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Denis Nekipelov & Minjung Park, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Subprime Mortgage Default: Estimation and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 18850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Masahiro Kato & Kyohei Okumura & Takuya Ishihara & Toru Kitagawa, 2024. "Adaptive Experimental Design for Policy Learning," Papers 2401.03756, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    80. Salgado, Maria, 2006. "Choosing to Have Less Choice," Economic Theory and Applications Working Papers 12188, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    81. Conny Wunsch, 2007. "Optimal Use of Labour Market Policies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-26, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    82. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    83. Qin, Duo, 2014. "Resurgence of instrument variable estimation and fallacy of endogeneity," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    84. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2023. "Treatment choice, mean square regret and partial identification," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 573-602, October.
    85. Dehejia, Rajeev H., 2005. "Program evaluation as a decision problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 141-173.

  87. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Social Interactions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  88. Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Romuald Meango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger, 2023. "Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay," Papers 2303.03009, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    2. Petra Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2002. "Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility: Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
    3. Kesternich, Iris & Heiss, Florian & McFadden, Daniel & Winter, Joachim, 2013. "Suit the action to the word, the word to the action: Hypothetical choices and real decisions in Medicare Part D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1313-1324.
    4. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2018. "A Canadian Parlor Room-Type Approach to the Long-Term Care Insurance Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche 1804, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2018. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 371, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Katharina Werner, 2019. "The Role of Information for Public Preferences on Education – Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 82, October.
    8. Ismael Choinière-Crèvecoeur & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2023. "Reverse Mortgages and Financial Literacy," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 12, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    9. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    10. Morita, Tamaki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Consumers’ willingness to pay for electricity after the Great East Japan Earthquake," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-105.
    11. Maestas, Nicole & Mullen, Kathleen & Powell, David & Wachter, Till von & Wenger, Jeffrey, 2018. "The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications for the Structure of Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 11925, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Domínguez-Torreiro, Marcos & Soliño, Mario, 2011. "Provided and perceived status quo in choice experiments: Implications for valuing the outputs of multifunctional rural areas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2523-2531.
    13. Pedersen, Line Bjørnskov & Mørkbak, Morten Raun & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2020. "Handling resolvable uncertainty from incomplete scenarios in future doctors' job choice – Probabilities vs discrete choices," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    14. M. Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude Denys Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2017. "Long-Term Care Insurance: Knowledge Barriers, Risk Perception and Adverse Selection," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-17, CIRANO.
    15. Martin Boyer & Philippe de Donder & Claude Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2020. "Long-Term Care Insurance : Information Frictions and Selection," Post-Print hal-02929780, HAL.
    16. Boneva, T. & Golin, M. & Rauh, C., 2021. "Can Perceived Returns Explain Enrollment Gaps in Postgraduate Education?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2140, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Peter Arcidiacono & V. Joseph Hotz & Songman Kang, 2010. "Modeling College Major Choices using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals," NBER Working Papers 15729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Stephen L. Morgan, 2004. "Methodologist as Arbitrator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(1), pages 3-53, August.
    19. Kim, Hyeon-Woong & Sung, Jae-hoon, 2024. "An Analysis of Preference for the Rural Residential environment and Landscape Improvements," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343815, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2009. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Drop-out Decision," NBER Working Papers 14810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Sharique Hasan & Surendrakumar Bagde, 2015. "Peers and Network Growth: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2536-2547, October.
    22. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    23. Dekker, Thijs & Hess, Stephane & Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2016. "Decision uncertainty in multi-attribute stated preference studies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-73.
    24. P. B. Anand, 2010. "Consumer Preferences for Water Supply? An Application of Choice Models to Urban India," Working Papers id:3287, eSocialSciences.
    25. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," Staff Reports 1018, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. M. Martin Boyer & Sébastien Box-Couillard & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2018. "Demand for Annuities: Price Sensitivity, Risk Perceptions, and Knowledge," CIRANO Working Papers 2018s-33, CIRANO.
    27. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, IZA Network @ LISER.
    28. Juerg Schweri, 2021. "Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 544-563, March.
    29. Caplan, Arthur J. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Toll, Kristopher, 2021. "Measuring heterogeneous preferences for residential amenities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    30. Tomás del Barrio Casto & William Nilsson & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2013. "How wrong can you be, without noticing? Further evidence on speci?cation errors in the Conditional Logit," Working Papers 1318, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    31. Pamela Giustinelli, 2016. "Group Decision Making With Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child–Parent Choice Of The High School Track," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 573-602, May.
    32. Romauld Méango, 2023. "Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities," Economics Series Working Papers 1007, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Delavande, Adeline & Rohwedder, Susann, 2017. "Changes in spending and labor supply in response to a Social Security benefit cut: Evidence from stated choice data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 34-50.
    34. Contini, Bruno, 2009. "Forecasting Errors: Yet More Problems for Identification?," IZA Discussion Papers 4035, IZA Network @ LISER.
    35. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Romuald Meango, 2025. "Is the distribution of resolvable uncertainty Type I extreme value? A Test for Random Coefficient Models using Choice Probabilities," Papers 2503.13901, arXiv.org.
    37. Robert Chambers & Teresa Serra & Spiro Stefanou, 2015. "Using ex ante output elicitation to model state-contingent technologies," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 75-83, February.
    38. Junyi Zhang, 2014. "Revisiting residential self-selection issues: A life-oriented approach," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(3), pages 29-45.
    39. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2005. "Social Security and the Retirement and Savings Behavior of Low Income Households," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    40. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
    41. Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2021. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Representative Evidence from Adults and Adolescents," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(351), pages 624-670, July.
    42. Cecere, Grazia & Corrocher, Nicoletta & Guerzoni, Marco, 2018. "Price or performance? A probabilistic choice analysis of the intention to buy electric vehicles in European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 19-32.
    43. Meango, Romuald & Girsberger, Esther Mirjam, 2024. "Identification of Ex Ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities: An Application to Preferences for Public-Sector Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 17174, IZA Network @ LISER.
    44. Fujimoto, Takashi & Watanabe, Masahide, 2022. "Comparison of the price adjustment program and subsidy scheme in Japan: Evaluation of domestic sugar support policy to internalize positive externalities," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    45. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Risk Management – Managing Risks, not Calculating Them," Risk and Insurance 0409001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Koşar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2022. "Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 123-147.
    47. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2022. "The reliability of students’ earnings expectations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    48. Zhang, Junyi & Yu, Biying & Chikaraishi, Makoto, 2014. "Interdependences between household residential and car ownership behavior: a life history analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 165-174.

  89. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 1998. "Censoring of outcomes and regressors due to survey nonresponse: Identification and estimation using weights and imputations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 37-58, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  90. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  91. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "The Mixing Problem in Programme Evaluation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 537-553.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  92. Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Learning about Treatment Effects from Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 709-733.

    Cited by:

    1. King , Elizabeth M. & Behrman, Jere R., 2008. "Timing and duration of exposure in evaluations of social programs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4686, The World Bank.
    2. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Aedo, Cristían & Nuñez, Sergio, 2004. "The Impact of Training Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Case of Programa Joven," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3287, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Valdés, Nieves, 2008. "Did PROGRESA send drop-outs back to school?," UC3M Working papers. Economics we085926, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. John Mullahy, 2017. "Individual Results May Vary: Elementary Analytics of Inequality-Probability Bounds, with Applications to Health-Outcome Treatment Effects," NBER Working Papers 23603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guido W. Imbens, 2010. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 399-423, June.
    7. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 424-455, June.
    8. Jens Otto Ludwig & Greg Duncan & Joshua C. Pinkston, 2000. "Neighborhood Effects on Economic Self-Sufficiency: Evidence from a Randomized Housing-Mobility Experiment," JCPR Working Papers 159, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    9. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Matilde P. Machado & Michael H. Riordan, 2001. "Measuring the Relative Performance of Providers of a Health Service," NBER Working Papers 8385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sianesi, Barbara, 2017. "Evidence of randomisation bias in a large-scale social experiment: The case of ERA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 41-64.
    11. Asensio, Omar Isaac & Delmas, Magali A., 2016. "The dynamics of behavior change: Evidence from energy conservation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PA), pages 196-212.
    12. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 1998. "Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Virginia Economics Online Papers 308, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
    13. James J. Heckman, 2005. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity and the Evaluation of Public Policy Part 2," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 49(1), pages 16-44, March.
    14. Gould, Eric & Lavy, Victor & Paserman, Daniele, 2003. "Immigrating to Opportunity: Estimating the Effect of School Quality Using a Natural Experiment on Ethiopians in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 4052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hunt Allcott, 2012. "Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 18373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    17. John V. Pepper, 2003. "Using Experiments to Evaluate Performance Standards: What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
    18. Fabio Soares & Yuri Suarez Dillon Soares, 2005. "The Socio-Economic Impact of Favela- Bairro: What do the Data Say?," OVE Working Papers 0805, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE).
    19. Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth Troske & Alexey Gorislavsky, 2003. "Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance," Working Papers 0309, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    20. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Robust Forecasting," Papers 2011.03153, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    21. Bronchetti, Erin Todd, 2012. "Workers' compensation and consumption smoothing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 495-508.
    22. Guido Imbens, 2019. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," NBER Working Papers 26104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. John V. Pepper, 1999. "What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," JCPR Working Papers 105, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    24. Cristian Aedo & Sergio Nuñez, 2004. "Efectos de las políticas de capacitación en América Latina y el Caribe: el caso del Programa Joven," Research Department Publications 3176, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    25. Mullahy, John, 2018. "Individual results may vary: Inequality-probability bounds for some health-outcome treatment effects," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 151-162.
    26. Michalopoulos, Charles & Robins, Philip K. & Card, David, 2005. "When financial work incentives pay for themselves: evidence from a randomized social experiment for welfare recipients," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 5-29, January.
    27. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
    28. Léandre BASSOLE & Jean-Louis ARCAND, 2006. "Does Community Driven Development Work? Evidence from Senegal," Working Papers 200606, CERDI.
    29. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments," Papers 1607.00698, arXiv.org.
    30. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    31. Tat Y. Chan & Barton H. Hamilton, 2006. "Learning, Private Information, and the Economic Evaluation of Randomized Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 997-1040, December.
    32. Angus Deaton, 2009. "Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development," Working Papers 1122, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    33. Jere R. Behrman & John Hoddinott, 2005. "Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican PROGRESA Impact on Child Nutrition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 547-569, August.
    34. Palma, Marco A. & Segovia, Michelle S. & Kassas, Bachir & Ribera, Luis A. & Hall, Charles R., 2018. "Self-control: Knowledge or perishable resource?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 80-94.
    35. Robert A. Pollak, 1998. "Notes on How Economists Think . . ," JCPR Working Papers 35, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    36. Manski, Charles F., 2002. "Identification of decision rules in experiments on simple games of proposal and response," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 880-891, May.
    37. Andreas Hildenbrand & Rainer Kühl & Anne Piper, 2016. "On the Credibility Determinants of a Quality Label: a Quasi-Natural Experiment Using the Example of Stiftung Warentest," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 307-325, September.
    38. Barbara Sianesi, 2013. "Dealing with randomisation bias in a social experiment exploiting the randomisation itself: the case of ERA," IFS Working Papers W13/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    39. Cristian Aedo & Sergio Nuñez, 2004. "The Impact of Training Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Case of Programa Joven," Research Department Publications 3175, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    40. Barbara Sianesi, 2014. "Dealing with randomisation bias in a social experiment: the case of ERA," IFS Working Papers W14/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    41. Bronchetti, Erin Todd, 2014. "Public insurance expansions and the health of immigrant and native children," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 205-219.
    42. Greg Duncan & Stephen W. Raudenbush, 1998. "Neighborhoods and Adolescent Development: How Can We Determine the Links?," JCPR Working Papers 59, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.

  93. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  94. Arthur S. Goldberger & Charles F. Manski, 1995. "The Bell Curve: Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 762-776, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Schütz & Ludger Wößmann, 2005. "Wie lässt sich die Ungleichheit der Bildungschancen verringern?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(21), pages 15-25, November.
    2. Erik Plug & Wim Vijverberg, 2003. "Schooling, Family Background, and Adoption: Is It Nature or Is It Nurture?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 611-641, June.
    3. Zetterberg, Johnny, 2005. "Swedish evidence on the impact of cognitive and non-cognitive ability on earnings – an extended pre-market factor approach," Working Paper Series 2005:16, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. Fernando Galindo-Rueda & Anna Vignoles, 2003. "Class Ridden or Meritocratic? An Economic Analysis of Recent Changes in Britain," CEE Discussion Papers 0032, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    5. Bönke, Timm & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2014. "Parental background matters: Intergenerational mobility and assimilation of Italian immigrants in Germany," Discussion Papers 2014/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Michael R. Pergamit, 2001. "The National Longitudinal Surveys," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 239-253, Spring.
    7. Murnane, Richard J. & Willett, John B. & Braatz, M. Jay & Duhaldeborde, Yves, 2001. "Do different dimensions of male high school students' skills predict labor market success a decade later? Evidence from the NLSY," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 311-320, August.
    8. Hanushek, Eric Alan & Jacobs, Babs & Schwerdt, Guido & van der Velden, Rolf & Vermeulen, Stan & Wiederhold, Simon, 2022. "The intergenerational transmission of cognitive skills: An investigation of the causal impact of families on student outcomes," Working Papers 09, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    9. Seals, Richard Alan & Stern, Liliana V., 2013. "Cognitive ability and the division of labor in urban ghettos: Evidence from gang activity in U.S. data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-149.
    10. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
    11. Sanders Korenman & Christopher Winship, 1995. "A Reanalysis of The Bell Curve," NBER Working Papers 5230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2001. "The relative effect of family and financial characteristics on educational echievement," CEE Discussion Papers 0008, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    13. Janet Currie & Duncan Thomas, 1995. "Race, Children's Cognitive Achievement and The Bell Curve," NBER Working Papers 5240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Berhman, J-R & Kletzer, L & Constantine, J & McPherson, M & Schapiro, M-O, 1996. "The Impact of College Quality on Wages : Are There Differences Among Demographic Groups?," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-38, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    15. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2002. "The Relative Effect of Family Characteristics and Financial Situation on Educational Achievement," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 165-181.
    16. Roland G. Fryer, Jr. & Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Understanding the Black-White Test Score Gap in the First Two Years of School," NBER Working Papers 8975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Israel, Mark & Seeborg, Michael, 1998. "The impact of youth characteristics and experiences on transitions out of poverty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 753-776.
    18. Dionissi Aliprantis & Daniel R. Carroll, 2012. "Neighborhood dynamics and the distribution of opportunity," Working Papers (Old Series) 1212, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Genes, Eyeglasses, and Social Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 83-94, Fall.
    20. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2024. "On the Origins of Socioeconomic Inequalities: Evidence from Twin Families," LISER Working Paper Series 2024-03, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    21. Marks, Gary N., 2022. "Cognitive ability has powerful, widespread and robust effects on social stratification: Evidence from the 1979 and 1997 US National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    22. Blackburn, McKinley L., 2004. "The role of test scores in explaining race and gender differences in wages," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 555-576, December.

  95. Horowitz, Joel L & Manski, Charles F, 1995. "Identification and Robustness with Contaminated and Corrupted Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 281-302, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ying-Ying Lee & Chu-An Liu, 2024. "Lee Bounds with a Continuous Treatment in Sample Selection," Papers 2411.04312, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    2. Lafférs, Lukáš & Mellace, Giovanni, 2020. "Identification of the average treatment effect when SUTVA is violated," Discussion Papers on Economics 3/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    3. Amanda Gosling & Eirini‐Christina Saloniki, 2014. "Correction Of Misclassification Error In Disability Rates," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(9), pages 1084-1097, September.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Bracketing effects in categorized survey questions and the measurement of economic quantities," Papers 02-35, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Missing Treatments," Working Papers 05-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    7. Bontemps, Christian & Magnac, Thierry & Maurin, Eric, 2007. "Set Identified Linear Models," IDEI Working Papers 494, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    8. Bhalotra, S & Clarke, D & Muhlrad, H & Palme, M, 2022. "Health and Labor Market Impacts of Twin Birth: Evidence from a Swedish IVF Policy Mandate," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 602, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Matthew Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2017. "Inference on breakdown frontiers," CeMMAP working papers 20/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Koedel Cory & Leatherman Rebecca & Parsons Eric, 2012. "Test Measurement Error and Inference from Value-Added Models," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, November.
    11. Blaise Melly und Kaspar W thrich, 2016. "Local quantile treatment effects," Diskussionsschriften dp1605, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    12. Huber, Martin & Mellace, Giovanni, 2011. "Sharp bounds on causal effects under sample selection," Economics Working Paper Series 1134, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    13. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 293-301.
    14. Samantha Leorato & Franco Peracchi, 2015. "Shape Regressions," EIEF Working Papers Series 1506, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2015.
    15. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Cheti Nicoletti, 2010. "Poverty analysis with missing data: alternative estimators compared," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Erich Battistin & Michele De Nadai & Daniela Vuri, 2014. "Counting Rotten Apples: Student Achievement and Score Manipulation in Italian Elementary Schools," CEIS Research Paper 329, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Sep 2014.
    18. Haile,P.A. & Tamer,E.T., 2000. "Inference with an incomplete model of English auctions," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    19. Rieck, Karsten Marshall E. & Telle, Kjetil, 2012. "Sick Leave Before, During and After Pregnancy," Working Papers in Economics 06/12, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    20. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Clarke, Damian & Walther, Selma, 2022. "Women's Careers and Family Formation," IZA Discussion Papers 15639, IZA Network @ LISER.
    21. Ali Fakih & Paul Makdissi & Walid Marrouch & Rami V. Tabri & Myra Yazbeck, 2020. "Confidence in public institutions and the run up to the October 2019 uprising in Lebanon," Discussion Papers Series 629, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    22. Guido Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    23. Romuald Meango & Marc Henry & Ismael Mourifie, 2025. "Combining stated and revealed preferences," Papers 2507.13552, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    24. Esmerelda A. Ramalho & Richard Smith, 2003. "Discrete choice non-response," CeMMAP working papers 07/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    25. Rami V. Tabri, 2026. "Distributional Change in Ordinal Data with Missing Observations: Minimal Mobility and Partial Identification," Papers 2604.12611, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    26. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
    27. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    28. Jeff Dominitz & Robert P. Sherman, 2006. "Identification and estimation of bounds on school performance measures: a nonparametric analysis of a mixture model with verification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1295-1326, December.
    29. Laffers, Lukas & Mellace, Giovanni, 2015. "A Note on Testing the LATE Assumptions," Discussion Papers on Economics 4/2015, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    30. Jorg Stoye, 2020. "A Simple, Short, but Never-Empty Confidence Interval for Partially Identified Parameters," Papers 2010.10484, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    31. Pedro Picchetti, 2025. "Breakdown Analysis for Instrumental Variables with Binary Outcomes," Papers 2507.10242, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    32. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    33. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Alessio Volpicella, 2020. "Uncertain Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP33/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    34. Gerard, François & Rokkanen, Miikka & Rothe, Christoph, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable," CEPR Discussion Papers 11048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Harry J. Paarsch & Jacques Robert, 2003. "Testing Equilibrium Behaviour At First-Price, Sealed-Bid Auctions With Discrete Bid Increments," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-32, CIRANO.
    36. Millimet, Daniel L. & Li, Hao & Roychowdhury, Punarjit, 2019. "Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 12085, IZA Network @ LISER.
    37. Schennach, Susanne M., 2020. "Mismeasured and unobserved variables," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 487-565, Elsevier.
    38. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & John Knowles, 2004. "Racial profiling or racist policing? bounds tests in aggregate data," Working Papers 2004-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    39. Krekó, Judit & Telegdy, Álmos, 2022. "The Effects of a Disability Employment Quota When Compliance Is Cheaper than Defiance," IZA Discussion Papers 15726, IZA Network @ LISER.
    40. Rieck, Karsten Marshall Elseth, 2012. "Does Child Care Affect Parents’ Sickness Absence? Evidence From A Norwegian Paternity Leave Reform," Working Papers in Economics 14/12, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    41. Gundersen, Craig & Kreider, Brent, 2008. "Bounding the Effects of Food Insecurity on Children's Health Outcomes," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13008, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    42. Dean R. Hyslop & Guido W. Imbens, 2000. "Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V., 2003. "Inferring Disability Status from Corrupt Data," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10228, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    44. John Deke, "undated". "Causal Validity Considerations for Including High Quality Non-Experimental Evidence in Systematic Reviews," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 676a04feb19e4904a052ba2e7, Mathematica Policy Research.
    45. Kreider, Brent & Pepper, John V. & Roy, Manan, 2018. "Does the Women, Infants, and Children Program (WIC) Improve Infant Health Outcomes?," ISU General Staff Papers 201805010700001055, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    46. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    47. Oliver R. Cutbill & Rami V. Tabri, 2022. "The Impossibility of Testing for Dependence Using Kendall’s Ƭ Under Missing Data of Unknown Form," Working Papers 2022-03, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    48. Giovanni Compiani & Yuichi Kitamura, 2016. "Using mixtures in econometric models: a brief review and some new results," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 95-127, October.
    49. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Partial Identification of Probability Distributions with Misclassified Data," Working Papers 05-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    50. Cheti Nicoletti & Franco Peracchi & Francesca Foliano, 2009. "Estimating Income Poverty in the Presence of Missing Data and Measurement Error," CEIS Research Paper 145, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Sep 2009.
    51. Christopher R. Bollinger & Amitabh Chandra, 2005. "Iatrogenic Specification Error: A Cautionary Tale of Cleaning Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(2), pages 235-258, April.
    52. Weili Ding & Steven F. Lehrer, 2009. "Estimating Treatment Effects from Contaminated Multi-Period Education Experiments: The Dynamic Impacts of Class Size Reductions," NBER Working Papers 15200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Engzell, Per, 2017. "What Do Books in the Home Proxy For? A Cautionary Tale," Working Paper Series 1/2016, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    54. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    55. Davezies, Laurent & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2017. "Regression discontinuity design with continuous measurement error in the running variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 260-281.
    56. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2017. "Misclassification in binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 295-311.
    57. Daniel Ober-Reynolds, 2024. "Robustness to missing data: breakdown point analysis," Papers 2406.06804, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    58. Charles F. Manski, 2003. "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 11-21, July.
    59. James J. Heckman, 2005. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity and the Evaluation of Public Policy Part 2," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 49(1), pages 16-44, March.
    60. Bierens, Herman J. & Swanson, Norman R., 2000. "The econometric consequences of the ceteris paribus condition in economic theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 223-253, April.
    61. Takahide Yanagi, 2018. "Inference on Local Average Treatment Effects for Misclassified Treatment," Papers 1804.03349, arXiv.org.
    62. Charles F. Manski, 2022. "Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up," Papers 2205.07388, arXiv.org.
    63. Nicoletti, Cheti & Peracchi, Franco & Foliano, Francesca, 2007. "Estimating income poverty in the presence of measurement error and missing data problems," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    64. Paul Makdissi & Walid Marrouch & Myra Yazbeck, 2023. "Monitoring poverty in a data deprived environment: The case of Lebanon," Working Papers 2302E Classification- I31, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    65. Huber, Martin & Mellace, Giovanni, 2011. "Testing instrument validity in sample selection models," Economics Working Paper Series 1145, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
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    2. McDonald, James B., 1996. "An application and comparison of some flexible parametric and semi-parametric qualitative response models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 145-152, November.
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    4. Murat GENÇ & Murray SMITH, 2008. "Wage Gaps in the New Zealand Labour Market," EcoMod2008 23800042, EcoMod.

  97. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
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  98. Manski, Charles F., 1993. "Dynamic choice in social settings : Learning from the experiences of others," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 121-136, July.

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    31. Giorgio Di Pietro, 2006. "Regional labour market conditions and university dropout rates: Evidence from Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 617-630.
    32. Johannes S. Kunz & Kevin E. Staub, 2016. "Subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0120, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    33. Naik, Gopal & Chitre, Chetan & Bhalla, Manaswini & Rajan, Jothsna, 2020. "Impact of use of technology on student learning outcomes: Evidence from a large-scale experiment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
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    35. Audrey Light & Wayne Strayer, 2003. "Who Receives the College Wage Premium? Assessing the Labor Market Returns to Degrees and College Transfer Patterns," Working Papers 03-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    36. Dirk Witteveen & Paul Attewell, 2021. "Delayed Time-to-Degree and Post-college Earnings," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(2), pages 230-257, March.
    37. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    38. Vincenzo Carrieri & Marcello D'Amato & Roberto Zotti, 2014. "On the Causal Effects of Selective Admission Policies on Students’ Performances. Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in a Large Italian University," CSEF Working Papers 381, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    39. Paco Martorell & Isaac McFarlin, Jr. & Yu Xue, 2014. "Does Failing a Placement Exam Discourage Underprepared Students from Going to College?," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 46-80, November.
    40. Alexander J. Cowell, 2006. "The relationship between education and health behavior: some empirical evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 125-146, February.
    41. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 940-959, November.
    42. Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," NBER Technical Working Papers 0333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    49. Lauren Schudde & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2016. "Pell Grants as Performance-Based Scholarships? An Examination of Satisfactory Academic Progress Requirements in the Nation’s Largest Need-Based Aid Program," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 57(8), pages 943-967, December.
    50. Carmen Aina & Chiara Mussida & Gabriele Lombardi, 2023. "Are Business and Economics Alike?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 557-585, July.
    51. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2023. "大学中退の逐次意思決定モデルの構造推定 [Structural estimation of a sequential decision model of college dropout]," MPRA Paper 118183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    55. Silva, Pedro Luís & DesJardins, Stephen L. & Biscaia, Ricardo & Sá, Carla & Teixeira, Pedro N., 2023. "Public and Private School Grade Inflations Patterns in Secondary Education," IZA Discussion Papers 16016, IZA Network @ LISER.
    56. Li, Hongyan & Xia, Xing, 2024. "Grades as signals of comparative advantage: How letter grades affect major choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
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    59. Michael Kaganovich & Morgan Taylor & Ruli Xiao, 2022. "Gender Differences in Persistence in a Field of Study: This Isn?t All about Grades," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-008 Classification-I, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    60. Stephen L. Morgan, 2002. "Modeling Preparatory Commitment and Non-repeatable Decisions," Rationality and Society, , vol. 14(4), pages 387-429, November.
    61. Susan M. Dynarski, 1999. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," NBER Working Papers 7422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. Contini, Dalit & Zotti, Roberto, 2021. "Do financial conditions play a role in university dropout? New evidence from administrative data," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202111, University of Turin.
    63. Montmarquette, Claude & Mahseredjian, Sophie & Houle, Rachel, 2001. "The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 475-484, October.
    64. Kunz, Johannes S. & Staub, Kevin E., 2020. "Early subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-55.
    65. Michael Kaganovich & Morgan Taylor & Ruli Xiao, 2021. "Gender Differences in Persistence in a Field of Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 9087, CESifo.
    66. Bulman, George, 2017. "Weighting recent performance to improve college and labor market outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 97-108.
    67. Michael Kaganovich & Itzhak Zilcha, 2025. "Risky College Enrollment, Dropout, and Student Debt Forgiveness," CESifo Working Paper Series 11620, CESifo.
    68. Judith Scott-Clayton & Lauren Schudde, 2016. "Performance Standards in Need-Based Student Aid," NBER Working Papers 22713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Nicole Tieben, 2020. "Non-completion, Transfer, and Dropout of Traditional and Non-traditional Students in Germany," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(1), pages 117-141, February.
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    71. Rossella Iraci Capuccinello, 2014. "Determinants and timing of dropping out decisions: evidence from the UK FE sector," Working Papers 15742191, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    72. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    73. Valentina Tocchioni & Maria Fancesca Morabito & Alessandra Petrucci, 2026. "Students enrolled in STEM disciplines in Italy: The role played by field of study and gender in course switching," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2026_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    74. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2022. "The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    75. Stratton Leslie S. & Wetzel James N., 2013. "Are Students Dropping Out or Simply Dragging Out the College Experience? Persistence at the Six-Year Mark," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1121-1142, October.
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    86. Vincenzo CARRIERI & Marcello D'AMATO & Roberto ZOTTI, 2013. "Selective Admission Tests and Students' Performances. Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Large Italian University," CELPE Working Papers 0/00, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.

  106. Manski, Charles F. & Thompson, T. Scott, 1989. "Estimation of best predictors of binary response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-123, January.
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  107. Manski, Charles F. & Salomon, Ilan, 1987. "The demand for teleshopping : An application of discrete choice models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 109-121, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Buckell, John & Palma, David & Hess, Stephane & Jebb, Susan A. & Piernas, Carmen, 2025. "Taxing fat versus behavioural interventions: Multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) models and the PCSHOP randomized trial of shopping behaviour," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Schmid, Basil & Axhausen, Kay W., 2019. "In-store or online shopping of search and experience goods: A hybrid choice approach," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 156-180.
    3. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Preference for the workplace, investment in human capital, and gender," Staff Reports 767, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Leung, Tin Cheuk, 2021. "Eliminating digital rights management from the E-book market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Patricia Mokhtarian, 2004. "A conceptual analysis of the transportation impacts of B2C e-commerce," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 257-284, August.
    6. Mariano Gallo & Mario Marinelli, 2020. "Sustainable Mobility: A Review of Possible Actions and Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-39, September.
    7. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2016. "Preference for the Workplace, Human Capital, and Gender," NBER Working Papers 22173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Wei (Laura) Tang, 2013. "Trivariate probit models of pre-purchase/purchase shopping channel choice: clothing purchases in Northern California," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Choice Modelling, chapter 12, pages 243-273, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sivakumar, Aruna & Axhausen, Kay W., 2003. "An analysis of the impact of information and communication technologies on non-maintenance shopping activities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 857-881, December.
    10. Choo, Sangho, 2003. "Aggregate Relationships between Telecommunications and Travel: Structural Equation Modeling of Time Series Data," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4p78h623, University of California Transportation Center.

  108. Manski, Charles F, 1987. "Semiparametric Analysis of Random Effects Linear Models from Binary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 357-362, March.
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  109. Manski, Charles F., 1986. "Semiparametric analysis of binary response from response-based samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-40, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Yu Xie & Charles F. Manski, 1989. "The Logit Model and Response-Based Samples," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 17(3), pages 283-302, February.
    2. Kyungchul Song, 2009. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Treatment-Based Sampling," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Liguo Zhang & Xuerong Li, 2016. "The Impact of Traditional Culture on Farmers’ Moral Hazard Behavior in Crop Production: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Igor Fedotenkov, 2013. "Consistency of the estimator of binary response models based on AUC maximization," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 22(3), pages 381-390, August.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Todd, Petra E., 2009. "A Note on Adapting Propensity Score Matching and Selection Models to Choice Based Samples," IZA Discussion Papers 4304, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Barros, Ricardo Paes de, 2010. "The Impact of Social Interventions: Nonparametric Identification from Choice-Based Samples," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(2), December.

  110. Manski, Charles F. & Thompson, T. Scott, 1986. "Operational characteristics of maximum score estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 85-108, June.
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  111. Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
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  112. Charles F. Manski & Ephraim Goldin, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Automobile Scrappage," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 365-375, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Hsu, Shi-Ling & Sperling, Daniel, 1994. "Uncertain Air Quality Impacts of Automobile Retirement Programs," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9hk939jn, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Mauritzen, Johannes, 2011. "The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine: Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy," Discussion Papers 2011/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-137, August.
    4. Harrington, Winston & McConnell, Virginia & Alberini, Anna, 1998. "Fleet Turnover and Old Car Scrap Policies," RFF Working Paper Series dp-98-23, Resources for the Future.
    5. David A. Hensher, 1987. "Automobile Loss Rates and the Expected Capital Cost of Vehicles: An Empirical Note," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(3), pages 247-254, September.

  113. Manski, Charles F, 1983. "Closest Empirical Distribution Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 305-319, March.

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    1. Feng, Junlong & Lee, Sokbae, 2025. "Individual welfare analysis: Random quasilinear utility, independence, and confidence bounds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Oliver Linton & Pedro Gozalo, 1996. "Conditional Independence Restrictions: Testing and Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1140, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Poirier, Alexandre, 2017. "Efficient estimation in models with independence restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Kooreman, P. & Melenberg, B., 1989. "Maximum score estimation in the ordered response model," Discussion Paper 1989-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Donald J. Brown & Rosa L. Matzkin, 1998. "Estimation of Nonparametric Functions in Simultaneous Equations Models, with an Application to Consumer Demand," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1175, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
    7. Komunjer, Ivana & Santos, Andres, 2009. "Semiparametric Estimation of Nonseparable Models: A Minimum Distance from Independence Approach," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt32k957bp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Igor Fedotenkov, 2013. "Consistency of the estimator of binary response models based on AUC maximization," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 22(3), pages 381-390, August.
    9. Yuichi Kitamura, 2006. "Empirical Likelihood Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Practice," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-430, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Torgovitsky, Alexander, 2017. "Minimum distance from independence estimation of nonseparable instrumental variables models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 35-48.
    11. Ian Domowitz, 1985. "New Directions in Non-linear Estimation with Dependent Observations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Xiaohong Chen & Oliver Linton & Ingred van Keilegom, 2002. "Estimation of semiparametric models when the criterion function is not smooth," CeMMAP working papers CWP02/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

  114. Manski, Charles F., 1983. "Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 373-389, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Pesendorfer, Martin & Schiraldi, Pasquale & Silva-Junior, Daniel, 2023. "Omitted budget constraint bias in discrete-choice demand models," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 1993. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium: Part I and II," NBER Working Papers 4264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Feyzioglu, Tarhan N., 1997. "Is demand for polluting goods manageable? An econometric study of car ownership and use in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 423-445, August.
    4. Karst Geurs & Henk Meurs, 2011. "The Dutch national road pricing scheme: review of appraisal studies and impacts for the Dutch car market and the environment," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1438, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Taha Rashidi & Abolfazl Mohammadian & Frank Koppelman, 2011. "Modeling interdependencies between vehicle transaction, residential relocation and job change," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(6), pages 909-932, November.
    6. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    7. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    8. Lefort, Fernando & Díaz, Fernando, 2025. "Analyzing price efficiency using machine learning generated price indices: The case of the Chilean used car market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A., 2021. "The landscape of econometric discrete choice modelling research," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    10. Hideo Konishi & Michael Sandfort, 2000. "Existence of Stationary Equilibrium in the Markets for New and Used Durable Goods," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 450, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Pesendorfer, Martin & Schiraldi, Pasquale & Silva-Junior, Daniel, 2023. "Omitted budget constraint bias in discrete-choice demand models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117353, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  115. Winship C. Fuller & Charles F. Manski & David A. Wise, 1982. "New Evidence on the Economic Determinants of Postsecondary Schooling Choices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 17(4), pages 477-498.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy, 2002. "The Effect of High School Matriculation Awards: Evidence from Randomized Trials," NBER Working Papers 9389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hurwitz, Michael & Goodman, Joshua Samuel & Smith, Jonathan & Fox, Julia, 2015. "The relationship between siblings’ college choices: Evidence from one million SAT-taking families," Scholarly Articles 22805380, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Funkhouser, Edward, 1999. "Cyclical economic conditions and school attendance in Costa Rica," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-50, February.
    4. Goodman, Joshua & Hurwitz, Michael & Smith, Jonathan & Fox, Julia, 2015. "The relationship between siblings’ college choices: Evidence from one million SAT-taking families," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 75-85.
    5. Long, M.C.Mark C., 2004. "College applications and the effect of affirmative action," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 319-342.
    6. Carlos Manuel Rodrigues Vieira & Isabel Maria Pereira Viegas Vieira, 2009. "Student based funding in higher education systems with declining and uncertain enrolments: the Portuguese case," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2009_02, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    7. Flannery, Darragh & O’Donoghue, Cathal, 2013. "The demand for higher education: A static structural approach accounting for individual heterogeneity and nesting patterns," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-257.
    8. Toutkoushian, Robert K., 2001. "Do parental income and educational attainment affect the initial choices of New Hampshire's college-bound students?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, June.
    9. David L. Sjoquist & John V. Winters, 2016. "The Effects of State Merit Aid Programs on Attendance at Elite Colleges," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 527-549, October.
    10. Eugenio Bobenrieth & Carlos Cáceres, 1994. "Un Modelo de Selección de Liceos de Enseñanza Media," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 27-44.
    11. Elizabeth Becker & Cotton M. Lindsay & Gary Grizzle, 2003. "The derived demand for faculty research," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 549-567.
    12. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Cohort Size Effects on US Enrollment Decisions," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-36, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    13. Do, Chau, 2004. "The effects of local colleges on the quality of college attended," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-257, June.
    14. Thompson, Fred & Zumeta, William, 2001. "Effects of key state policies on private colleges and universities: sustaining private-sector capacity in the face of the higher education access challenge," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 517-531, December.
    15. Christopher D. Blake & Danna Kang Thomas & Joshua Hess, 2024. "Higher education: The impact of recreational marijuana on college applications," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 259-277, April.
    16. Ronald M. Harstad & Jordan Pandolfo, 2013. "Applied Signaling: Graduate School Admissions and Frequency of STEM Majors," Working Papers 1305, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    17. Partenie Cristina-Veronica, 2019. "From Intent to Action – A Study Regarding High School Students’ Motivation in Choosing a University," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 29(2), pages 17-32, June.
    18. Light, Audrey, 1995. "Hazard model estimates of the decision to reenroll in school," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 381-406, December.
    19. Lopez-Valcarcel, Beatriz Gonzalez & Quintana, Delia Davila, 1998. "Economic and Cultural Impediments to University Education in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 93-103, February.
    20. Michael S. Kofoed, 2017. "To Apply or Not to Apply: FAFSA Completion and Financial Aid Gaps," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 58(1), pages 1-39, February.
    21. Semjén, András, 2012. "A tandíj közgazdaságtana [The economics of tuition fees]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 31-62.
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Software components

    Sorry, no citations of software components recorded.

Chapters

  1. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 411-471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Charles F. Manski, 1987. "Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972," NBER Chapters, in: Public Sector Payrolls, pages 291-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Meir G. Kohn & Charles F. Manski & David S. Mundel, 1976. "An Empirical Investigation of Factors Which Influence College-Going Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 391-419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. David L. Sjoquist & John V. Winters, 2016. "The Effects of State Merit Aid Programs on Attendance at Elite Colleges," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 527-549, October.
    2. Reinhard A. Weisser, 2020. "How Personality Shapes Study Location Choices," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(1), pages 88-116, February.
    3. Schmidt, Alejandro & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Paredes, Ricardo D., 2019. "Heterogeneity and college choice: Latent class modelling for improved policy making," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    4. Christopher Jepsen & Mark Montgomery, 2009. "Miles to go before I learn: The effect of travel distance on the mature person's choice of a community college," Open Access publications 10197/4443, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Levon Barseghyan & Maura Coughlin & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2019. "Heterogeneous Choice Sets and Preferences," Papers 1907.02337, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

Books

  1. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.

    Cited by:

    1. Hao Bo & Sebastian Galiani, 2019. "Assessing External Validity," NBER Working Papers 26422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    3. T. N. Srinivasan, 2014. "Development Process: A Manual or a Collection of Anecdotes?," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 418-423, November.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2020. "Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 265-296, January.
    6. Thiene, Mara & Swait, Joffre & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2017. "Choice set formation for outdoor destinations: The role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 152-173.
    7. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2015. "How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," NBER Working Papers 21701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Anthony Perl & Michael Howlett & M. Ramesh, 2018. "Policy-making and truthiness: Can existing policy models cope with politicized evidence and willful ignorance in a “post-fact” world?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 51(4), pages 581-600, December.
    9. Xeni Dassiou & Peter Langham & Charles Nancarrow & Alex Scharaschkin & Dan Ward, 2015. "Public service markets: their economics, institutional oversight and regulation," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(palcomms2), pages 15035-15035, November.
    10. John Rust, 2014. "The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 820-850, September.
    11. Manski, Charles F., 2016. "Credible interval estimates for official statistics with survey nonresponse," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 293-301.
    12. Harris, Thomas R. & Grumstrup, Ethan, 2023. "Alternative Public Land Management Policy Impacts: Ranch and County Level," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2023, January.
    13. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Millimet, Daniel L. & Roy, Jayjit, 2015. "Multilateral environmental agreements and the WTO," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 20-23.
    15. Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Frederic Vermeulen, 2023. "Nonparametric Models in Consumer Behaviour," Working Papers ECARES 2023-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Huhr, Scott & Wulczyn, Fred, 2022. "Do intensive in-home services prevent placement?: A case study of Youth Villages’ Intercept® program," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2019. "How can randomised controlled trials help improve the design of the common agricultural policy?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(3), pages 473-493.
    18. Tan, Jonathan H.W. & Zhao, Zichen & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2025. "Inference from field and laboratory experiments in economics: empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    19. Philipp Eisenhauer & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh & Janós Gabler, 2023. "Structural Models for Policy-Making," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_484, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    20. Richard ILes, 2017. "Government Doctor Absenteeism And Its Effects On Consumer Demand In Rural North India," Working Papers 2018-9, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    21. Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando & Grant, Sean & Miguel, Edward, 2018. "A Framework for Open Policy Analysis," MetaArXiv jnyqh, Center for Open Science.
    22. Manganelli, Simone, 2021. "Statistical decision functions with judgment," Working Paper Series 2512, European Central Bank.
    23. Molinari, Francesca, 2020. "Microeconometrics with partial identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 355-486, Elsevier.
    24. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2018. "Can RCTs help improve the design of CAP," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01974425, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    25. Susan Athey & Raj Chetty & Guido Imbens, 2020. "Using Experiments to Correct for Selection in Observational Studies," Papers 2006.09676, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    26. Richard A. Iles, 2019. "Government doctor absenteeism and its effects on consumer demand in rural north India," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 475-491, April.
    27. Pearl Judea, 2015. "Generalizing Experimental Findings," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 259-266, September.
    28. Charles F. Manski, 2020. "Towards Reasonable Patient Care Under Uncertainty," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 227-245, April.
    29. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    30. Benno Torgler, 2022. "The power of public choice in law and economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1410-1453, December.
    31. Charles F. Manski, 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-653, September.
    32. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2947-2985, October.
    33. Eric Danan & Thibault Gajdos Preuss & Brian Hill & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Robust Social Decisions," Post-Print halshs-01415412, HAL.
    34. Marc Keuschnigg & Niclas Lovsjö & Peter Hedström, 2018. "Analytical sociology and computational social science," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 3-14, January.
    35. Takanori IDA & Takunori ISHIHARA & Koichiro ITO & Daido KIDO & Toru KITAGAWA & Shosei SAKAGUCHI & Shusaku SASAKI, 2023. "Choosing Who Chooses: Selection-driven targeting in energy rebate programs," Discussion papers 23011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    36. Takanori Ida & Takunori Ishihara & Koichiro Ito & Daido Kido & Toru Kitagawa & Shosei Sakaguchi & Shusaku Sasaki, 2021. "Paternalism, Autonomy, or Both? Experimental Evidence from Energy Saving Programs," Papers 2112.09850, arXiv.org.
    37. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    38. Buch, Claudia M. & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2014. "Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    39. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Reasonable patient care under uncertainty," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1397-1421, October.
    40. Reiner Eichenberger & Rainer Hegselmann & David Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Certified Corona-Immunity as a Resource and Strategy to Cope with Pandemic Costs," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    41. Steven F. Lehrer & Weili Ding, 2017. "Are genetic markers of interest for economic research?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    42. Dave Donaldson, 2022. "Blending Theory and Data: A Space Odyssey," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 185-210, Summer.
    43. Riccardo Scarpa & Claudia Bazzani & Diego Begalli & Roberta Capitello, 2021. "Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 335-369, June.
    44. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2017. "Sampling-based vs. Design-based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis," Papers 1706.01778, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    45. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    46. Ho Fai Chan & Nikita Ferguson & David A. Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Is Science Able to Perform Under Pressure? Insights from COVID-19," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-07, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    47. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Inference for Set‐Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1519-1556, July.
    48. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2025. "A Decision Theoretic Perspective on Artificial Superintelligence: Coping with Missing Data Problems in Prediction and Treatment Choice," Papers 2509.12388, arXiv.org.
    49. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Frimmel, Wolfgang & Halla, Martin, 2016. "How Does Parental Divorce Affect Children's Long-term Outcomes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Zhu, Qin & Jesiek, Brent K., 2014. "In pursuit of the Dao in policymaking: Toward a cultural approach to understanding engineering education policy in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 169-176.
    51. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation," Papers 1607.00699, arXiv.org.
    52. Jonathan H.W. Tan & Zhao Zichen & Daniel John Zizzo, 2023. "Scientific Inference from Field and Laboratory Economic Experiments: Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers Series 663, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    53. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 20098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Guido Imbens, 2019. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," NBER Working Papers 26104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Aizawa, T.;, 2019. "Reviewing the Existing Evidence of the Conditional Cash Transfer in India through the Partial Identification Approach," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 19/24, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    56. Naruhisa Nakane & Ichiro Wada, 2022. "Estimating the Social Costs of Child Abuse in Residential Care for Children with Disabilities Using the Japanese Survey on the Interactions of Adverse and Positive Childhood Experiences toward Adulthood," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-9, December.
    57. Ottaviani, Marco & Di Tillio, Alfredo & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2016. "Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Mechoulan, Stéphane, 2020. "Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 305-326.
    59. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2022. "Robust Data-Driven Decisions Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2205.04573, arXiv.org.
    61. Guido W. Imbens, 2021. "Statistical Significance, p-Values, and the Reporting of Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 157-174, Summer.
    62. Brian Hill, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Post-Print hal-03503986, HAL.
    63. Benno Torgler, 2021. "The Power of Public Choice in Law and Economics," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    64. Hill, Brian, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    65. Fischer, Robert L. & Richter, Francisca García-Cobián, 2017. "SROI in the pay for success context: Are they at odds?," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-109.
    66. Paulina Calfucoy, 2016. "Building Institutional Capacities for Climate Change Policies: The Case of MAPS Chile," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 59(3), pages 335-341, December.
    67. Eble,Alex & Boone,Peter & Elbourne,Diana, 2016. "On minimizing the risk of bias in randomized controlled trials in economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7746, The World Bank.
    68. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    69. Kaushik Basu, 2014. "Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 455-472, December.
    70. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments," Papers 1607.00698, arXiv.org.
    71. Schmidt Christoph M., 2014. "Wirkungstreffer erzielen – Die Rolle der evidenzbasierten Politikberatung in einer aufgeklärten Gesellschaft," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 219-233, October.
    72. Muller, Sean, 2014. "Randomised trials for policy: a review of the external validity of treatment effects," SALDRU Working Papers 127, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    73. Binswanger, Johannes & Oechslin, Manuel, 2020. "Better statistics, better economic policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    74. Soufian, Mona & Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert, 2014. "Adapting financial rationality: Is a new paradigm emerging?," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 724-742.
    75. Zahra Siddique, 2014. "Randomized control trials in an imperfect world," World of Labour, LISER, pages 110-110, December.
    76. Charles F. Manski, 2026. "Coping with Inductive Risk When Theories are Underdetermined: Decision Making with Partial Identification," Papers 2602.00355, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    77. Jiun-Hua Su, 2021. "No-Regret Forecasting with Egalitarian Committees," Papers 2109.13801, arXiv.org.
    78. Baruch Fischhoff & Gabrielle Wong‐Parodi & Dana Rose Garfin & E. Alison Holman & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2018. "Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    79. Youssef M. Aboutaleb & Mazen Danaf & Yifei Xie & Moshe Ben-Akiva, 2021. "Discrete Choice Analysis with Machine Learning Capabilities," Papers 2101.10261, arXiv.org.
    80. Simone Manganelli, 2019. "Deciding with Judgment," Papers 1903.06980, arXiv.org.
    81. Reiner Eichenberger & Rainer Hegselmann & David A. Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Certified Coronavirus Immunity as a Resource and Strategy to Cope with Pandemic Costs," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 464-474, August.
    82. Brian Hill, 2021. "Decision under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03504015, HAL.
    83. Craig S Wright, 2026. "Utility-Weighted Forecasting and Calibration for Risk-Adjusted Decisions under Trading Frictions," Papers 2601.07852, arXiv.org.
    84. Grossman, Guy & Humphreys, Macartan & Sacramone-Lutz, Gabriella, 2020. "Information Technology and Political Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(4), pages 1321-1336.
    85. Julia H. Littell, 2024. "The Logic of Generalization From Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Impact Evaluations," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 427-460, June.
    86. Hill, Brian, 2023. "Beyond uncertainty aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 196-222.
    87. Dionissi Aliprantis, 2015. "Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity," Working Papers (Old Series) 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    88. Thomas R. Harris, 2017. "Incorporating Risk in Analysis of Tax Policies for Solar Power Investments," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 112-118.
    89. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    90. Lorena G Barberia & Maria Leticia Claro Oliveira & Andrea Junqueira & Natália de Paula Moreira & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2055-2069, September.
    91. Araz Taeihagh & M Ramesh & Michael Howlett, 2021. "Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 1009-1019, October.
    92. Daniel T. L. Shek & Florence K. Y. Wu, 2018. "The Social Indicators Movement: Progress, Paradigms, Puzzles, Promise and Potential Research Directions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 975-990, February.
    93. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    94. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, IZA Network @ LISER.
    95. Cartier, Yuri & Benmarhnia, Tarik & Brousselle, Astrid, 2015. "Tool for assessing health and equity impacts of interventions modifying air quality in urban environments," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-9.
    96. Eddie Casey, 2019. "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 5-34.
    97. Brian Hill, 2023. "Beyond Uncertainty Aversion," Post-Print hal-02428398, HAL.
    98. Choudhury, Sanchari, 2019. "WTO membership and corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    99. Basu, Kaushik, 2013. "The method of randomization and the role of reasoned intuition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6722, The World Bank.
    100. Philipp Eisenhauer & Jano's Gabler & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh, 2021. "Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty," Papers 2103.01115, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    101. Maxwell Rosenthal, 2025. "Identification Design," Papers 2511.18647, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.

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