IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

How Sensitive are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?

  • Andries de Grip


  • Didier Fouarge


  • Raymond Montizaan


This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 161 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 225-251

in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:161:y:2013:i:3:p:225-251
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Liebman, Jeffrey B. & Luttmer, Erzo F.P. & Seif, David G., 2009. "Labor Supply Responses to Marginal Social Security Benefits: Evidence from Discontinuities," Scholarly Articles 4481678, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Grip Andries de & Lindeboom Maarten & Montizaan Raymond, 2009. "Shattered Dreams: The Effects of Changing the Pension System Late in the Game," ROA Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2004. "Minimum Hours Constraints, Job Requirements and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 10876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gary S. Fields & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1984. "Economic Determinants of the Optimal Retirement Age: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 19(2), pages 245-262.
  5. Arthur van Soest & Arie Kapteyn & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2006. "Using Stated Preferences Data to Analyze Preferences for Full and Partial Retirement," Working Papers 345, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  6. Montizaan, Raymond M. & Vendrik, Maarten C.M., 2014. "Misery Loves Company: Exogenous shocks in retirement expectations and social comparison effects on subjective well-being," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-26.
  7. Burtless, Gary, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805, October.
  8. Michael Baker, 2003. "The Retirement Behavior of Married Couples: Evidence From The Spouse's Allowance," Working Papers 993, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  9. Stefan Staubli & Josef Zweimüller, 2011. "Does raising the retirement age increase employment of older workers?," ECON - Working Papers 020, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2012.
  10. Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "New Evidence on Pensions, Social Security, and the Timing of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 6534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-80, September.
  12. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2006. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," Working Papers 66, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  13. Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014. "The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
  14. Montizaan, Raymond & Cörvers, Frank & de Grip, Andries & Dohmen, Thomas, 2012. "Negative Reciprocity and Retrenched Pension Rights," IZA Discussion Papers 6955, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 234-246, May.
  16. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  17. Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniel van Vuuren, 2007. "The trend in female labour force participation; what can be expected for the future?," CPB Discussion Paper 93, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  18. Coile Courtney, 2004. "Retirement Incentives and Couples' Retirement Decisions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, July.
  19. Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald P., 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 1992, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  20. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00755648 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Paul Bingley & Gauthier Lanot, 2007. "Public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in Denmark," NBER Chapters, in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 1878-1901 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304, October.
  23. Carson, Richard T. & Flores, Nicholas E. & Martin, Kerry M. & Wright, Jennifer L., 1995. "Contingent Valuation and Revealed Preference Methodologies: Comparing the Estimates for Quasi-Public Goods," 1995 Conference (39th), February 14-16, 1995, Perth, Australia 148793, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  24. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
  25. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  26. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2007. "Introduction to "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform, pages 1-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  28. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
  29. Hurd, Michael D & Boskin, Michael J, 1984. "The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in the Early 1970s," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 767-90, November.
  30. van der Wiel, Karen, 2009. "Have You Heard the News? How Real-Life Expectations React to Publicity," IZA Discussion Papers 4064, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  31. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David, 1998. "Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 158-63, May.
  32. Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?," NBER Working Papers 14208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2007. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub07-1, July.
  34. Alan B. Krueger & Jorn-Steffen Pischke, 1991. "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation," NBER Working Papers 3699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Allard Bruinshoofd & Sybille Grob, 2006. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A stated preferences approach to Dutch retirement consideration," DNB Working Papers 115, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  36. Fouarge Didier & Grip Andries de & Montizaan Raymond, 2011. "Pensioenverwachtingen en personeelsbeleid," ROA Report 010, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:161:y:2013:i:3:p:225-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.