Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions
This paper studies inference in a continuous-time game where an agent’s decision to quit an activity depends on the participation of other players. In equilibrium, similar actions can be explained not only by direct influences, but also by correlated factors. Our model can be seen as a simultaneous duration model with multiple decision makers and interdependent durations. We study the problem of determining existence and uniqueness of equilibrium stopping strategies in this setting. This paper provides results and conditions for the detection of these endogenous effects. First, we show that the presence of such effects is a necessary and sufficient condition for simultaneous exits. This allows us to set up a nonparametric test for the presence of such influences which is robust to multiple equilibria. Second, we provide conditions under which parameters in the game are identified. Finally, we apply the model to data on desertion in the Union Army during the American Civil War and find evidence of endogenous influences.
|Date of creation:||01 Oct 2004|
|Date of revision:||01 May 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104|
Web page: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/pier
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francesco Squintani & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2005.
"Preemption Games with Private Information,"
2005 Meeting Papers
80, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Charles F. Manski, 1993.
"Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
- Manski, C.F., 1991. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: the Reflection Problem," Working papers 9127, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Markus K Brunnermeier & John Morgan, 2004.
"Clock Games: Theory and Experiments,"
122247000000000401, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Morgan, John, 2006. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt9c11m09n, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Morgan, John, 2004. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt81m0r0jj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Van den Berg, G J & Lindeboom, M & Ridder, G, 1994.
"Attrition in Longitudinal Panel Data and the Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Labour Market Behaviour,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 421-35, Oct.-Dec..
- Berg, G.J. & Lindeboom, M. & Ridder, G., 1993. "Attrition in longitudinal panel data, and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour," Serie Research Memoranda 0014, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Huang, Jing-zhi & Subrahmanyam, Marti G & Yu, G George, 1996. "Pricing and Hedging American Options: A Recursive Integration Method," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 277-300.
- Scheinkman, Jose A. & Zariphopoulou, Thaleia, 2001. "Optimal Environmental Management in the Presence of Irreversibilities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 180-207, January.
- Ju, Nengjiu, 1998. "Pricing an American Option by Approximating Its Early Exercise Boundary as a Multipiece Exponential Function," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 627-46.
- Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
- Hua He & William P. Keirstead & Joachim Rebholz, 1998.
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 201-228.
- Eric Fournié & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Jérôme Lebuchoux & Nizar Touzi, 1999. "Applications of Malliavin calculus to Monte Carlo methods in finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 391-412.
- McManus, Douglas A., 1992. "How common is identification in parametric models?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 5-23.
- Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003.
"Cowards and Heroes: Group Loyalty in the American Civil War,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 519-548.
- Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2001. "Cowards and Heroes: Group Loyalty in the American Civil War," NBER Working Papers 8627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Araujo, Aloisio & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1978. "Notes on the smoothing of aggregate demand," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-127, September.
- William Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2000.
NBER Technical Working Papers
0258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dolly Guarini)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.