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Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions

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  • Aureo de Paula

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper studies inference in a continuous-time game where an agent’s decision to quit an activity depends on the participation of other players. In equilibrium, similar actions can be explained not only by direct influences, but also by correlated factors. Our model can be seen as a simultaneous duration model with multiple decision makers and interdependent durations. We study the problem of determining existence and uniqueness of equilibrium stopping strategies in this setting. This paper provides results and conditions for the detection of these endogenous effects. First, we show that the presence of such effects is a necessary and sufficient condition for simultaneous exits. This allows us to set up a nonparametric test for the presence of such influences which is robust to multiple equilibria. Second, we provide conditions under which parameters in the game are identified. Finally, we apply the model to data on desertion in the Union Army during the American Civil War and find evidence of endogenous influences.

Suggested Citation

  • Aureo de Paula, 2004. "Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-017
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    14. Ju, Nengjiu, 1998. "Pricing an American Option by Approximating Its Early Exercise Boundary as a Multipiece Exponential Function," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 627-646.
    15. Eric Fournié & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Jérôme Lebuchoux & Nizar Touzi, 1999. "Applications of Malliavin calculus to Monte Carlo methods in finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 391-412.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti, 2013. "The heterogeneous thresholds ordered response model: identification and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 703-722, June.
    2. Bo Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2011. "Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2011-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2011.
    3. repec:eee:ijrema:v:30:y:2013:i:3:p:236-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2008. "Loyalty, peer group effects, and 401(k)," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 94-122, February.
    5. Bo E. Honor & Áureo De Paula, 2010. "Interdependent Durations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(3), pages 1138-1163.
    6. ÖZGÜR, Onur, 2010. "Local Interactions," Cahiers de recherche 14-2010, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Seth Richards‐Shubik, 2015. "Peer effects in sexual initiation: Separating demand and supply mechanisms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), pages 663-702, November.
    8. Bo E. Honore & Aureo de Paula, 2007. "Interdependent Durations, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-044, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Nov 2008.
    9. Steven N. Durlauf & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2010. "Social Interactions," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 451-478, September.
    10. ÖZGÜR, Onur & BISIN, Alberto, 2011. "Dynamic Linear Economies with Social Interactions," Cahiers de recherche 04-2011, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    11. Áureo de Paula, 2013. "Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 107-131, May.
    12. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2010. "Adoption Curves and Social Interactions," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 232-251, March.
    13. Kline, Brendan, 2015. "Identification of complete information games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 117-131.
    14. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Andrei Kirilenko & Eleonora Patacchini, 2010. "Are Networks Priced? Network Topology and Order Trading Strategies in High Liquidity Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1011, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
    15. Bo E. Honoré & Aureo de Paula, 2009. ""Interdependent Durations" Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Feb 2008.
    16. repec:eee:ijrema:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:51-61 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    duration models; social interactions; empirical games; optimal stopping;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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