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Interdependent durations in joint retirement

Author

Listed:
  • Bo E. Honoré

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Princeton)

  • Áureo de Paula

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

Abstract

This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. The proposed model also has the feasure that it will generate equal durations with positive probability. The motivating example is retirement decisions by married couples. In that example it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that the each partner's optimal retirement time depends on the retirement time of the spouse. Moreover, the data suggest that the wife and the husband retire at the same time for a non-negligible fraction of couples. Our approach takes as starting point a stylized economic model that leads to a univariate generalized accelerated failure time model. The covariates of that generalized accelerated failure time model act as utility-flow shifters in the economic model. We introduce simultaneity by allowing the utility flow in retirement to depend on the retirement status of the spouse. The econometric model is then completed by assuming that the observed outcome is the Nash bargaining solution in that simple economic model. The advantage of this approach is that it includes independent realizations from the generalized accelerated failure time model as a special case, and deviations from this special case can be given an economic interpretation. We illustrate the model by studying the joint retirement decisions in married couples using the Health and Retirement Study. We provide a discussion of relevant identifying variation and estimate our model using indirect inference. The main empirical fi nding is that the simultaneity seems economically important. In our preferred speci cation the indirect utility associated with being retired increases by approximately 5% if one's spouse is already retired and unobservables exhibit positive correlation. The estimated model also predicts that the indirect eff ect of a change in husbands' pension plan on wives' retirement dates is about 4% of the direct e ffect on the husbands.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo E. Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2014. "Interdependent durations in joint retirement," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:08/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blau, David M, 1998. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Married Couples," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(3), pages 595-629, July.
    2. Geert Ridder, 1990. "The Non-Parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181.
    3. Trivedi, Pravin K. & Zimmer, David M., 2007. "Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-111, April.
    4. Martin Browning & Pierre-André Chiappori & Valérie Lechene, 2006. "Collective and Unitary Models: A Clarification," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-14, March.
    5. Magnac, Thierry & Robin, Jean-Marc & Visser, Michael, 1995. "Analysing Incomplete Individual Employment Histories Using Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(S), pages 153-169, Suppl. De.
    6. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2009. "Integrating Retirement Models," NBER Working Papers 15607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. de Paula, Áureo, 2009. "Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 56-71, January.
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    9. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    10. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1992. "Collective Labor Supply and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 437-467, June.
    11. Courtney C. Coile, 2004. "Health Shocks and Couples' Labor Supply Decisions," NBER Working Papers 10810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    13. Pierre-André Chiappori & Olivier Donni & Ivana Komunjer, 2012. "Learning from a Piece of Pie," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 162-195.
    14. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 2000. "Retirement in Dual-Career Families: A Structural Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 503-545, July.
    15. Mark Y. An & Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta, 2004. "Multivariate mixed proportional hazard modelling of the joint retirement of married couples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 687-704.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruixuan Liu, 2016. "A Competing Risks Model with Time-varying Heterogeneity and Simultaneous Failure," Emory Economics 1603, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    2. Laura Hospido & Gema Zamarro, 2014. "Retirement patterns of couples in Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. repec:kap:itaxpf:v:24:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10797-016-9427-y is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_457 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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