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Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions

  • de Paula, Áureo

This paper studies inference in a continuous time game where an agent's decision to quit an activity depends on the participation of other players. In equilibrium, similar actions can be explained not only by direct influences but also by correlated factors. Our model can be seen as a simultaneous duration model with multiple decision makers and interdependent durations. We study the problem of determining the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium stopping strategies in this setting. This paper provides results and conditions for the detection of these endogenous effects. First, we show that the presence of such effects is a necessary and sufficient condition for simultaneous exits. This allows us to set up a nonparametric test for the presence of such influences, which is robust to multiple equilibria. Second, we provide conditions under which parameters in the game are identified. Finally, we apply the model to data on desertion in the Union Army during the American Civil War, and find evidence of endogenous influences.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 148 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 56-71

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:148:y:2009:i:1:p:56-71
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2000. "Interactions-Based Models," Working Papers 00-05-028, Santa Fe Institute.
  2. Van den Berg, G J & Lindeboom, M & Ridder, G, 1994. "Attrition in Longitudinal Panel Data and the Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Labour Market Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 421-35, Oct.-Dec..
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  7. Scheinkman, Jose A. & Zariphopoulou, Thaleia, 2001. "Optimal Environmental Management in the Presence of Irreversibilities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 180-207, January.
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  9. Huang, Jing-zhi & Subrahmanyam, Marti G & Yu, G George, 1996. "Pricing and Hedging American Options: A Recursive Integration Method," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 277-300.
  10. Hua He William P. Keirstead and Joachim Rebholz., 1995. "Double Lookbacks," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-248, University of California at Berkeley.
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  12. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003. "Cowards And Heroes: Group Loyalty In The American Civil War," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 519-548, May.
  13. McManus, Douglas A., 1992. "How common is identification in parametric models?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 5-23.
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  15. Ju, Nengjiu, 1998. "Pricing an American Option by Approximating Its Early Exercise Boundary as a Multipiece Exponential Function," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 627-46.
  16. Araujo, Aloisio & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1978. "Notes on the smoothing of aggregate demand," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-127, September.
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