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Integrating Retirement Models

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  • Alan L. Gustman
  • Thomas Steinmeier

Abstract

This paper advances the specification and estimation of models of retirement and saving in two earner families. The complications introduced by the interaction of retirement decisions by husbands and wives have led researchers to adopt a number of simplifications to increase the feasibility of estimating family retirement models. Our model relaxes these restrictions. It includes the extended choice set created when each spouse makes an independent retirement decision. It also includes the full range of complexity found in dynamic-stochastic models of retirement decision making, so far analyzed only in the context of single earner households. Retirement outcomes include full retirement, partial retirement and full-time work. Reverse flows from states of lesser to greater work are also included. The preference structure incorporates heterogeneity in time preference, varying taste parameters for full-time and part-time work, and the possibility of changes in preferences after retirement. The opportunity set reflects the full range of nonlinearities created by pensions and Social Security. Financial returns are stochastic. Exogenous shocks such as layoffs are also included. Estimation is based on data from the Health and Retirement Study. The solution method is based on backward induction. We show that this method is superior to a method based on a Nash equilibrium, providing plausible behavioral predictions when Nash equilibrium criteria fall silent. In contrast to some recent studies, the findings suggest the flow of wives into the labor force in the last few decades has probably reduced the amount of husbands' work. The model also provides plausible responses to various policies. For example, we find that any effort to promote opportunities for partial retirement as a means to increase overall work is likely to be unsuccessful as any induced decline in full retirements is offset by a decrease in full-time work.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2009. "Integrating Retirement Models," NBER Working Papers 15607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde Godard, 2017. "Gaining weight through retirement? Results from the SHARE survey," Working Papers halshs-01525000, HAL.
    2. Elena Stancanelli & Arthur Van Soest, 2012. "Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement: a double Regression Discontinuity Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12085, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Bo Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2011. "Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2011-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2011.
    4. Stancanelli, Elena G. F., 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity with Differences-in-Differences," IZA Discussion Papers 6791, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2013. "Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13072, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Bonsang, Eric & van Soest, Arthur, 2015. "Home Production and Retirement in Couples: A Panel Data Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 9156, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Aganbegyan, Abel Gezevich & Gorlin, Yury Mikhailovich & Dormidontova, Yulia & Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna & Nazarov, Vladimir, "undated". "Analysis of Factors that Influences on Decision About Retirement Age," Published Papers nvg125, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement : A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 253-276.
    10. Stancanelli, Elena G. F., 2016. "Couples' Retirement under Individual Pension Design: A Regression Discontinuity Study for France," IZA Discussion Papers 10322, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. repec:eee:labeco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:177-188 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:joecag:v:6:y:2015:i:c:p:123-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier.
    14. Blau, David M. & Goodstein, Ryan M., 2016. "Commitment in the household: Evidence from the effect of inheritances on the labor supply of older married couples," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 123-137.
    15. Laura Hospido & Gema Zamarro, 2014. "Retirement patterns of couples in Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2013. "Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Post-Print halshs-00881215, HAL.
    17. ICHIMURA Hidehiko & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2011. "Retirement Process in Japan: New evidence from Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)," Discussion papers 11080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00768901 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "How Did the Recession of 2007-2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?," NBER Working Papers 17547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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