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Dynamic Programming Model of Health and Retirement

  • Iskhakov, Fedor

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

A structural dynamic programming model is applied for modeling labour market transitions among older age workers in Norway in 1992-2003. Special attention is given to early retirement pensiion and disability pension as two major exit routes from the labour force. Health status is represented by a latent variable reflecting the eligibility for participating in disability programs. Incomplete information maximum likelihood method is used in several stages to facilitate the estimation. The model is used to investigate the degree of potential substitution of the early retirement and retirement through the disability insurance scheme. Estimates of the structural parameters of the concealed health process allow for forecasting the individual "eligibility" for the disability and thus facilitate the assessment of the potential substitution between the two exit routes from the labour force. Performed policy simulation of the complete elimination of the early retirement program indicates nearly complete return of th otherwise early pensioners back to the labour market.

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Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 03/2008.

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Length: 119 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2008_003
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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