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Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble

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  • Alan L. Gustman
  • Thomas L. Steinmeier

Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both in retirement preferences and in time preferences. Estimates are based on information covering the period 1992 through 2000 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel survey of retirement age respondents and their spouses. The extraordinary returns in the stock market in the late 1990's, which more than doubled stock prices and unexpectedly increased the value of a mixed portfolio by nearly 60 percent, increased retirement for the HRS sample of workers by over 3 percentage points by the turn of the century and would have decreased the average retirement age by about a quarter of a year if it had not been interrupted. The subsequent decline in the market, which very nearly wiped out the gains that had been made during the preceding surge, effectively neutralized the effect of the preceding stock market gains on retirement. The effects of the bubble were to increase retirement as long as the bubble continued, but any continuing effects of the bubble after its end will probably be minimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2002. "Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble," NBER Working Papers 9404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9404
    Note: AG LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    2. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
    3. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2005. "The social security early entitlement age in a structural model of retirement and wealth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 441-463, February.
    4. Diamond, P. A. & Hausman, J. A., 1984. "Individual retirement and savings behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 81-114.
    5. Coile, Courtney & Diamond, Peter & Gruber, Jonathan & Jousten, Alain, 2002. "Delays in claiming social security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 357-385, June.
    6. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October.
    7. John P. Rust, 1990. "Behavior of Male Workers at the End of the Life Cycle: An Empirical Analysis of States and Controls," NBER Chapters,in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 317-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John P. Rust, 1989. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Aging, pages 359-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alan L. Gustman & F. Thomas Juster, 1995. "Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alicia H. Munnell & Steven A. Sass, 2007. "The Labor Supply of Older Americans," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jun 2007.
    2. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2007. "Baby Boomer retirement security: The roles of planning, financial literacy, and housing wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 205-224, January.
    3. Ricky Kanabar & Peter Simmons, 2013. "To defer or not defer? State Pension in a Lifecycle Model," Discussion Papers 13/26, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Alan Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2006. "How Changes in Social Security Affect Retirement Trends," Working Papers wp127, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    5. Chulhee Lee, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955 to 2005," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 281-313 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2012. "Policy effects in hyperbolic vs. exponential models of consumption and retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 465-473.
    7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2010. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 161-182, Winter.
    8. repec:eee:joecag:v:6:y:2015:i:c:p:123-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alan Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2006. "Financial Risk, Retirement, Saving and Investment," Working Papers wp130, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2008. "Projecting behavioral responses to the next generation of retirement policies," Research in Labor Economics,in: Work, Earnings and Other Aspects of the Employment Relation, volume 28, pages 141-195 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    11. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2006. "Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(3), pages 408-429, April.
    12. Farhi, Emmanuel & Panageas, Stavros, 2007. "Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 87-121, January.
    13. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2008. "How Changes in Social Security Affect Recent Retirement Trends," NBER Working Papers 14105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Annamaria Lusardi & Jason Beeler, 2006. "Savings Between Cohorts: The Role of Planning," Working Papers wp122, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    15. Chulhee Lee, 2009. "Labor Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955-2005," NBER Working Papers 14800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alicia H. Munnell & Dan Muldoon & Steven A. Sass, 2009. "Recessions and Older Workers," Issues in Brief ib2009-9-2, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2009.
    17. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "How Did the Recession of 2007-2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?," NBER Working Papers 17547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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