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Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?

  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • John B. Shoven
  • Sita Nataraj Slavov

Media reports predicted that the stock market decline in October 2008 would cause changes in retirement intentions, due to declines in retirement assets. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and retirement intentions during 1998-2008, a period that includes the recent crisis. While we find a weak negative correlation between stock returns and retirement intentions, further investigation suggests that this relationship is not driven by wealth shocks brought about by stock market fluctuations, but by other factors that are correlated with both the stock market and retirement intentions.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16211.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16211.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Publication status: published as Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16211
Note: AG PE
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  1. Barbara A. Butrica & Karen E. Smith & Eric J. Toder, 2009. "Retirement Security and the Stock Market Crash: What Are the Possible Outcomes?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2009-30, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2009.
  2. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2004. "Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 10779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Eric French, 2000. "The effect of the run-up in the stock market on labor supply," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 48-65.
  4. Coile Courtney C & Levine Phillip B, 2011. "The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, April.
  5. Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jeffrey R. Brown & Courtney C. Coile & Scott J. Weisbenner, 2006. "The Effect of Inheritance Receipt on Retirement," NBER Working Papers 12386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2010. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 161-82, Winter.
  8. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2010. "Recessions, Reeling Markets, and Retiree Well-Being," NBER Working Papers 16066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David Joulfaian & Mark O. Wilhelm, 1994. "Inheritance and Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1234.
  10. Martin Farnham & Purvi Sevak, 2007. "Housing Wealth and Retirement Timing," Working Papers wp172, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  11. Purvi Sevak, 2002. "Wealth Shocks and Retirement Timing: Evidence from the Nineties," Working Papers wp027, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  12. Gabor Kezdi & Purvi Sevak, 2004. "Economic Adjustment of Recent Retirees to Adverse Wealth Shocks," Working Papers wp075, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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