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What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans during the Great Recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • John B. Shoven
  • Sita Nataraj Slavov

Abstract

We examine changes in subjective probabilities regarding retirement between the 2006 and 2008 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Using a first-difference approach to eliminate individual heterogeneity, we find that the steep drop in asset prices in 2008 increased the reported probability of working at age 62 during the Great Recession. Increasing unemployment at least partly attenuated this effect, but subjective probabilities of working did not respond to changes in housing markets. Older workers' probabilities of working were more sensitive to fluctuations in the stock market, but less responsive to changes in labor market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2011. "What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans during the Great Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 29-34, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:29-34
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.3.29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters,in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2009. "How Do Pension Changes Affect Retirement Preparedness? The Trend to Defined Contribution Plans and the Vulnerability of the Retirement Age Population to the Stock Market Decline of 2008-2009," Working Papers wp206, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
    2. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "Optimal Savings For Retirement: The Role Of Individual Accounts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1361-1388, September.
    3. Paul Marmora & Moritz Ritter, 2015. "Unemployment and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 274-290, September.
    4. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2015. "The impact of the recession on the wealth of older immigrant and native households in the United States," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Kathleen G. Arano & Carl D. Parker, 2016. "The great recession and changes in faculty expected retirement age," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 127-136, January.
    6. Shai Bernstein & Timothy McQuade & Richard R. Townsend, 2017. "Does Economic Insecurity Affect Employee Innovation?," NBER Working Papers 24011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andreas Eder, 2016. "The impact of inheritances on the retirement behavior of older Europeans," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 299-331, May.
    8. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "Optimal savings for retirement: The role of individual accounts and disaster expectations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. repec:eme:ijmpps:ijm-02-2016-0041 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Nicolas Sirven & Thomas Barnay, 2017. "Expectations, loss aversion and retirement decisions in the context of the 2009 crisis in Europe," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 25-44, April.
    11. repec:bpj:bejeap:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:21:n:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Crawford, Rowena, 2013. "The effect of the financial crisis on the retirement plans of older workers in England," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 156-159.
    13. repec:red:issued:15-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Fernando Rios-Avila, 2015. "Losing Ground: Demographic Trends in US Labor Force Participation," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-7, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Courtney Coile, 2015. "Recessions and Retirement: How Stock and Labor Market Fluctuations Affect Older Workers," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(2), pages 03-07, 08.
    16. Fernando Rios-Avila & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2014. "A Decade of Flat Wages?," Economics Policy Note Archive 14-4, Levy Economics Institute.

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