What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans during the Great Recession?
We examine changes in subjective probabilities regarding retirement between the 2006 and 2008 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Using a first-difference approach to eliminate individual heterogeneity, we find that the steep drop in asset prices in 2008 increased the reported probability of working at age 62 during the Great Recession. Increasing unemployment at least partly attenuated this effect, but subjective probabilities of working did not respond to changes in housing markets. Older workers' probabilities of working were more sensitive to fluctuations in the stock market, but less responsive to changes in labor market conditions.
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Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
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- Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters,in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2009. "How Do Pension Changes Affect Retirement Preparedness? The Trend to Defined Contribution Plans and the Vulnerability of the Retirement Age Population to the Stock Market Decline of 2008-2009," Working Papers wp206, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.