Macroeconomic Conditions and Updating of Expectations by Older Americans
Economic theory suggests that individual decisions about consumption, saving, and labor supply should be directly linked to subjective expectations about future events. This project uses panel data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1994-2008 merged to data on a number of local and high frequency macroeconomic indicators to estimate how individual expectations respond to fluctuations in the local and national macroeconomy. Our results suggest that individuals revise their expectations in response to both local and national macroeconomic fluctuations in ways that appear to make sense, and that this is stronger for respondents with higher levels of education.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48104|
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Web page: http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Basit Zafar, 2009.
"How do college students form expectations?,"
378, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Purvi Sevak, 2002. "Wealth Shocks and Retirement Timing: Evidence from the Nineties," Working Papers wp027, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Adeline Delavande, 2005.
"Measuring Revisions to Subjective Expectations,"
2005 Meeting Papers
682, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007.
"Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
- Steven Haider & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2004. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
- Kathryn H. Anderson & Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1986. "Do Retirement Dreams Come True? The Effect of Unanticipated Events on Retirement Plans," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(4), pages 518-526, July.
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