Macroeconomic Conditions and Updating of Expectations by Older Americans
Economic theory suggests that individual decisions about consumption, saving, and labor supply should be directly linked to subjective expectations about future events. This project uses panel data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1994-2008 merged to data on a number of local and high frequency macroeconomic indicators to estimate how individual expectations respond to fluctuations in the local and national macroeconomy. Our results suggest that individuals revise their expectations in response to both local and national macroeconomic fluctuations in ways that appear to make sense, and that this is stronger for respondents with higher levels of education.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2011|
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Web page: http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/papers/
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- Basit Zafar, 2011.
"How Do College Students Form Expectations?,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(2), pages 301 - 348.
- Kathryn Anderson & Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1986. "Do retirement dreams come true? The effect of unanticipated events on retirement plans," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(4), pages 518-526, July.
- Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007.
"Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
- Steven Haider & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2004. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adeline Delavande, 2008.
"Measuring revisions to subjective expectations,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
- Purvi Sevak, 2002. "Wealth Shocks and Retirement Timing: Evidence from the Nineties," Working Papers wp027, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
- Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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