IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/19-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Retirement Timing Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence and Quantitative Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Caliendo

    (Utah State University)

  • Maria Casanova

    (California State University, Fullerton)

  • Aspen Gorry

    (Clemson University)

  • Sita Nataraj Slavov

    (George Mason University)

Abstract

People often retire at a different age than expected. We construct a measure of retirement timing uncertainty and find that the standard deviation of the difference between retirement expectations and actual retirement dates ranges from 3 to 6 years. To understand the potential implications of this uncertainty, we develop a simple model of exogenous but risky retirement. In this environment, individuals would give up 1.0%-4.5% of total lifetime consumption to fully insure this risk and 0.8%-3.2% of lifetime consumption simply to know their actual retirement date upon entering the labor force. This is crucial for retirement planning purposes because not saving to hedge this risk would leave individuals with even larger welfare costs. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Caliendo & Maria Casanova & Aspen Gorry & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2023. "Retirement Timing Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence and Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 226-266, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2023.01.002
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2023.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blau, David M, 1998. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Married Couples," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(3), pages 595-629, July.
    2. Rawley Z. Heimer & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Raphael S. Schoenle, 2019. "YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2957-2996, December.
    3. David M. Blau, 2008. "Retirement and Consumption in a Life Cycle Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 35-71.
    4. Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti, 2001. "The Effects of Large Capital Gains on Work and Consumption Evidence from Four Waves of the HRS," Working Papers DRU-3011, RAND Corporation.
    5. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-417, May.
    6. Karl Kosloski & David Ekerdt & Stanley DeViney, 2001. "The Role of Job-Related Rewards in Retirement Planning," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 56(3), pages 160-169.
    7. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1984. "Consumption during Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 1-7, February.
    8. Rupert, Peter & Zanella, Giulio, 2018. "Grandchildren and their grandparents' labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 89-103.
    9. Nicole Maestas, 2010. "Expectations and Realizations of Work after Retirement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
    10. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    11. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2007. "Baby Boomer retirement security: The roles of planning, financial literacy, and housing wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 205-224, January.
    12. Maarten C.J. van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob J.M. Alessie, 2012. "Financial Literacy, Retirement Planning and Household Wealth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 449-478, May.
    13. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    14. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2006. "Some Answers to The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle," Working Papers WR-342, RAND Corporation.
    15. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Vermeulen, Frederic, 2011. "A collective labor supply model with complementarities in leisure: Identification and estimation by means of panel data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 159-167, April.
    16. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    17. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    18. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2006. "Designing Optimal Disability Insurance: A Case for Asset Testing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 257-279, April.
    19. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation and the Propensity to Plan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 1007-1047.
    20. repec:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i::p:449-478 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Andrew Au & Olivia S. Mitchell & John W.R. Phillips, 2005. "Saving Shortfalls and Delayed Retirement," Working Papers wp094, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    22. Brooke Helppie McFall, 2011. "Crash and Wait? The Impact of the Great Recession on the Retirement Plans of Older Americans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 40-44, May.
    23. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2006. "The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 71-96, Summer.
    24. John C Williams, 2015. "The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 57-60, April.
    25. Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
    26. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
    27. David H. Autor, 2015. "The unsustainable rise of the disability rolls in the United States: causes, consequences and policy options," Chapters, in: John Karl Scholz & Hyungypo Moon & Sang-Hyup Lee (ed.), Social Policies in an Age of Austerity, chapter 5, pages 107-136, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    28. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    29. Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
    30. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
    31. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge, 2014. "Social security and retirement across the OECD," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 300-316.
    32. Michael D. Hurd & Monika Reti & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 127-163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Jeffrey R. Brown & Courtney C. Coile & Scott J. Weisbenner, 2010. "The Effect of Inheritance Receipt on Retirement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 425-434, May.
    34. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2011. "What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans during the Great Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 29-34, May.
    35. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard Thaler, 2007. "Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 81-104, Summer.
    36. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989. "The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Aging, pages 335-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Mariger, Randall P, 1987. "A Life-cycle Consumption Model with Liquidity Contraints: Theory and Empirical Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 533-557, May.
    38. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    39. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    40. Jonathan Skinner, 2007. "Are You Sure You're Saving Enough for Retirement?," NBER Working Papers 12981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Bronchetti, Erin Todd, 2012. "Workers' compensation and consumption smoothing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 495-508.
    42. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    43. Borys Grochulski & Yuzhe Zhang, 2013. "Saving for Retirement with Job Loss Risk," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 45-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank N. Caliendo & Maria Casanova & Aspen Gorry & Sita Slavov, 2016. "The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2020. "Survival ambiguity and welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 20-42.
    3. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    4. Koç, E., 2015. "Job Finding, Job Loss and Consumption Behaviour," Other publications TiSEM 257b35a1-8c5c-4662-88db-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Koç, E., 2015. "Job Finding, Job Loss and Consumption Behaviour," Discussion Paper 2015-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    7. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    8. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Desmond Toohey, 2018. "Changes in Nutrient Intake at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 24621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Crawford, Rowena, 2013. "The effect of the financial crisis on the retirement plans of older workers in England," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 156-159.
    10. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    11. Thomas Horvath & Thomas Url, 2013. "Bridging-Renten als Überbrückung für Einkommensausfälle vor dem Pensionsantritt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46684.
    12. Garry F. Barrett & Matthew Brzozowski, 2010. "Involuntary Retirement and the Resolution of the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from Australia," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 275, McMaster University.
    13. Margherita Borella & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "(Un)expected retirement and the consumption puzzle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 733-751, September.
    14. Anderson, Anders & Baker, Forest & Robinson, David T., 2017. "Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 383-398.
    15. Lührmann, Melanie & Serra-Garcia, Marta & Winter, Joachim, 2015. "Teaching teenagers in finance: Does it work?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 160-174.
    16. Maarten C.J. van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob J.M. Alessie, 2012. "Financial Literacy, Retirement Planning and Household Wealth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 449-478, May.
    17. Zuzana Brokesova & Andrej Cupak & Gueorgui Kolev, 2017. "Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    19. María José Luengo-Prado & Almudena Sevilla-Sanz, 2010. "Consumption, retirement and life-cycle prices: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 2010-18, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    20. Lingxiao Zhao & Gregory Burge, 2017. "Housing Wealth, Property Taxes, and Labor Supply among the Elderly," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 227-263.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.