Pensions, Household Saving, and Welfare: A Dynamic Analysis
Empirical analyses of the effects of public and private pensions on household saving impose strong assumptions in order to obtain a tractable empirical model: fixed retirement and pension claiming ages, no borrowing constraint, little or no uncertainty, and no institutional restrictions on pension claiming. I specify a richer version of the life cycle model that relaxes these assumptions. I calibrate, solve, and simulate the model and use the results to study three issues: (1) How much household wealth is crowded out by pensions? (2) Can linear regression analysis accurately estimate the magnitude of crowdout when the assumptions used in the empirical analysis are invalid? (3) How valuable are pensions to households? Simulation results indicate that private pensions in the US crowd out less than $0.15 of household saving per dollar of pension wealth. Crowdout by Social Security is larger at $0.33, but far smaller than the one-for-one offset predicted by a stylized version of the life cycle model. Regression estimates of crowdout using the simulated data are systematically larger than simulated crowdout, indicating that empirical estimates of crowdout are quite sensitive to the assumptions required in order to use the regression approach. The welfare analysis implies that, conditional on Social Security, DB pensions are worth less than their expected present discounted value to households, while DC pensions are worth more than their dollar value. In the absence of a private pension, Social Security is worth 50% more to households than its expected dollar value.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 234-246, May.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1499-1521, December.
- Luc Behaghel & David M. Blau, 2010. "Framing social security reform: Behavioral responses to changes in the full retirement age," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564950, HAL.
- Gary V. Engelhardt & Anil Kumar, 2011. "Pensions and Household Wealth Accumulation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(1), pages 203-236.
- Gourinchas, P.O. & Parker, J.A., 1997.
"Consumption Over the Life Cycle,"
9722, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Pistaferri & Hamish Low & Costas Meghir, 2004.
"Wage risk and employment risk over the life-cycle,"
2004 Meeting Papers
82, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2009. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 14901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Low, Hamish & Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2007. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk Over the Life Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Low, Hamish & Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2008. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 3700, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W06/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W08/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009.
"Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
- Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2005. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 33, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
- Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2006. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," Working Papers 893, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2006. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," Working Papers 66, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2006. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," CeRP Working Papers 53, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- David I. Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 1998. "Self-Control and Saving for Retirement," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 91-196.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Agar Brugiavini, 2003. "Social Security And Households' Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 1075-1119, August.
- Michael Hurd & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Susann Rohwedder, 2009.
"The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets,"
wp212, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Michael Hurd & Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 107-128, 03.
- Eric French, 2005.
"The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
- Eric French, 2000. "The effects of health, wealth, and wages on labor supply and retirement behavior," Working Paper Series WP-00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Eric French, 2004. "The Effects of Health, Wealth and Wages on Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior," 2004 Meeting Papers 96, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Joyce Manchester & Jae Song, 2008. "Have People Delayed Claiming Retirement Benefits? Responses to Changes in Social Security Rules: Working Paper 2008-04," Working Papers 19575, Congressional Budget Office.
- John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006.
"Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
- Wilbert van der Klaauw & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2005.
"Social Security and the Retirement and Savings Behavior of Low Income Households,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
05-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.