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An Econometric Analysis of Automobile Scrappage


  • Charles F. Manski

    (University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin)

  • Ephraim Goldin

    (The Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel)


It has been suggested that a used car is scrapped when its price net of repair costs falls below its scrap value. This simple hypothesis captures the essence of the important idea that the life spans of durable goods are determined by both economic and technical considerations. We present empirical evidence based on an explicit econometric model of the scrappage decision. Analyzing make-model-vintage specific scrappage rates in Israel for 1979, we find that the hypothesized inverse relationship between price and scrappage probability exists and is of striking magnitude. This finding, when combined with the fact that new car prices in Israel are almost triple CIF prices, may explain why the median life expectancy of a vehicle in Israel is so much longer than that of a similar vehicle in Western Europe or the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski & Ephraim Goldin, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Automobile Scrappage," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 365-375, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:17:y:1983:i:4:p:365-375

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauritzen, Johannes, 2011. "The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine: Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy," Discussion Papers 2011/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Alberini, Anna & Harrington, Winston & McConnell, Virginia D., 1998. "Fleet Turnover and Old Car Scrap Policies," Discussion Papers 10897, Resources for the Future.
    3. Johannes Mauritzen, 2014. "Scrapping a Wind Turbine: Policy Changes, Scrapping Incentives and Why Wind Turbines in Good Locations Get Scrapped First," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-137, August.
    5. Harrington, Winston & McConnell, Virginia & Alberini, Anna, 1998. "Fleet Turnover and Old Car Scrap Policies," Discussion Papers dp-98-23, Resources For the Future.

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