The Politics of the Paycheck Protection Program
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018.
"The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morris H. DeGroot & Julia Mortera, 1991. "Optimal Linear Opinion Pools," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 546-558, May.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2019. "Fifty Years of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 4(4), pages 1-11, October.
- Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009.
"Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
- Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2017. "Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1298-1313, November.
- Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023.
"Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
- Anthony Garratt & Timo Henckel & Shaun P. Vahey, 2019. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," CAMA Working Papers 2019-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023.
"On the aggregation of probability assessments: Regularized mixtures of predictive densities for Eurozone inflation and real interest rates,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Papers 2012.11649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 29635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone In?ation and Real Interest Rates," PIER Working Paper Archive 21-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Working Papers 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016.
"Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
- Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic prediction pools: an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Staff Reports 695, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 20575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
- Mark F. J. Steel, 2020.
"Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
- Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 90110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2018.
- Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fabio Busetti, 2017.
"Quantile Aggregation of Density Forecasts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 495-512, August.
- Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015.
"Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
- Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2014. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Working Paper Series 1679, European Central Bank.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011.
"Optimal prediction pools,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series 22_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank.
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
- Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997.
"Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
NBER Working Papers
6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 98-15, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004.
"Pooling of forecasts,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015.
"Optimal combination of survey forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
- Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020.
"Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers No 01/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Paper 2019/2, Norges Bank.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018.
"Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Bayesian nonparametric calibration and combination of predictive distributions," Working Paper 2015/03, Norges Bank.
- Roberto Casarin & Federico Bassetti & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Working Papers 2015:04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
- Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
- Graham Elliott & Dalia Ghanem & Fabian Krüger, 2016. "Forecasting Conditional Probabilities of Binary Outcomes under Misspecification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 742-755, October.
- Emir Shuford & Arthur Albert & H. Edward Massengill, 1966. "Admissible probability measurement procedures," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 31(2), pages 125-145, June.
- Samuels, Jon D. & Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2017. "Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60.
- Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Rafael, 2014. "Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 981-995.
- McAlinn, Kenichiro & West, Mike, 2019. "Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis in time series forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 155-169.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
- Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Martin, Gael M. & Frazier, David T. & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Maheu, John & Nibbering, Didier & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024.
"Bayesian forecasting in economics and finance: A modern review,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 811-839.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
- Li, Li & Kang, Yanfei & Li, Feng, 2023.
"Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1287-1302.
- Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Martin, Gael M. & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Frazier, David T. & Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés, 2022.
"Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 384-406.
- Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Andres Ramirez Hassan, 2020. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 33/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gael M. Martin & Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Andr'es Ram'irez Hassan, 2020. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," Papers 2009.09592, arXiv.org.
- Bernaciak, Dawid & Griffin, Jim E., 2024. "A loss discounting framework for model averaging and selection in time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1721-1733.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chernis Tony, 2024.
"Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(2), pages 293-317, April.
- Tony Chernis, 2023. "Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis," Staff Working Papers 23-45, Bank of Canada.
- Clements, Michael P., 2018.
"Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
- Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024.
"Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
- McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
- Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022.
"Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Sheng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," CESifo Working Paper Series 5468, CESifo.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Sheng, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8810, CESifo.
- Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022.
"Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "Infinite Markov pooling of predictive distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 302-321.
- Clements, Michael P., 2010.
"Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- K=osaku Takanashi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2019. "Equivariant online predictions of non-stationary time series," Papers 1911.08662, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ash:wpaper:133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ashoka University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ashoka.edu.in .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.