IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1994.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House Price Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Niklas Gohl
  • Peter Haan
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Felix Weinhardt

Abstract

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1994, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.834002.de/dp1994.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2021. "What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 773-864, September.
    2. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    3. Breunig, Christoph & Huck, Steffen & Schmidt, Tobias & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "The Standard Portfolio Choice Problem in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 131(638), pages 2413-2446.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    5. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    6. Grohmann, Antonia & Menkhoff, Lukas & Merkle, Christoph & Schmacker, Renke, 2024. "Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence, Income Expectations, and Consumer Indebtedness," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Early Vie, pages 1-32.
    7. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.
    9. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
    10. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    11. Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2022. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets: A Ten-Year Retrospect," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(1 (Spring), pages 307-366.
    12. Annamaria Lusardi, 2008. "Household Saving Behavior: The Role of Financial Literacy, Information, and Financial Education Programs," NBER Working Papers 13824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    15. Michael Seiler & Vicky Seiler & Stefan Traub & David Harrison, 2008. "Regret Aversion and False Reference Points in Residential Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 461-474, January.
    16. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    17. John A. List, 2011. "Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies? The Case of Exogenous Market Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 313-317, May.
    18. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    20. Sewin Chan & Samuel Dastrup & Ingrid Gould Ellen, 2016. "Do Homeowners Mark to Market? A Comparison of Self-Reported and Estimated Market Home Values During the Housing Boom and Bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 627-657, July.
    21. Kahneman, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1325-1348, December.
    22. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2021. "Gender roles produce divergent economic expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(21), pages 2008534118-, May.
    23. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2016. "Market Break or Simply Fake? Empirics on the Causal Effects of Rent Controls in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1584, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    25. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    26. David Richter & Jürgen Schupp, 2015. "The SOEP Innovation Sample (SOEP IS)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 135(3), pages 389-400.
    27. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Morales, Eduardo & Nathanson, Charles G., 2014. "Housing dynamics: An urban approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 45-56.
    28. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri, 2012. "Strong Evidence for Gender Differences in Risk Taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 50-58.
    29. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    30. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, April.
    31. Gao, Andre & Lin, Zhenguo & Na, Carrie Fangzhou, 2009. "Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 256-266, September.
    32. Niu, Geng & van Soest, Arthur, 2014. "House Price Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 8536, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    33. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    34. Almenberg, Johan & Dreber, Anna, 2015. "Gender, stock market participation and financial literacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 140-142.
    35. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2017. "Does everyone use probabilities? The role of cognitive skills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 73-85.
    36. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Social Networks: Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(6), pages 2224-2276.
    38. Andrea Lamorgese & Dario Pellegrino, 2019. "Loss aversion in housing price appraisals among Italian homeowners," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1248, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bielskis, Karolis & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2024. "The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer & Peter Haan & Boryana Ilieva & Annekatrin Schrenker & Georg Weizsäcker, 2023. "Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 411, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Gioia M. Mariani & Eleonora Porreca & Concetta Rondinelli, 2025. "How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? Experimental evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 940, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Lepinteur & Sofie R. Waltl, 2020. "Tracking Owners’ Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp299, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    3. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    5. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
    8. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    10. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ida Johnsson, 2020. "Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 428-442, April.
    12. Gioia M. Mariani & Eleonora Porreca & Concetta Rondinelli, 2025. "How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? Experimental evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 940, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    14. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2020. "Learning about the Neighborhood," NBER Working Papers 26907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
    17. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    18. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," CEPR Discussion Papers 13195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    20. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Growth-at-Risk of the United States: Housing Price versus Housing Sentiment or Attention," Working Papers 202401, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.