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House price expectations

Author

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  • Gohl, Niklas
  • Haan, Peter
  • Michelsen, Claus
  • Weinhardt, Felix

Abstract

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2024. "House price expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 379-398.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:218:y:2024:i:c:p:379-398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Gioia M. Mariani & Eleonora Porreca & Concetta Rondinelli, 2025. "How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? Experimental evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 940, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer & Peter Haan & Boryana Ilieva & Annekatrin Schrenker & Georg Weizsäcker, 2023. "Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 411, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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