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House Price Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Niklas Gohl
  • Peter Haan
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Felix Weinhardt

Abstract

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in hous ing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household sur vey, past sale offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market character istics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1162, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1162
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; house price expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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