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Long-run Expectations of Households

Author

Listed:
  • Breunig, Christoph

    (Emory University)

  • Grabova, Iuliia

    (HU and DIW Berlin)

  • Haan, Peter

    (FU and DIW Berlin)

  • Weinhardt, Felix

    (HU and DIW Berlin)

  • Weizsäcker, Georg

    (HU and DIW Berlin)

Abstract

The rational expectations assumption, e.g. in life-cycle models and portfolio-choice models, prescribes agents to have model-consistent beliefs and to avoid systematic prediction errors. In reality, justication and identication of expectations are nontrivial. One way to solve this problem is to elicit expectations collecting survey data. We utilize the German SOEP Innovation Sample to analyze short-run and long-run expectations of households in three different domains: stock market, labor market and housing market. Our main contribution to the existing literature is that we study expectations about price developments over longer periods, which is of central relevance since many important economic decisions of households concern the long run. Previous studies have mainly focused on short-run or medium-run expectations. We document that while expectations about wages are similar to historical values, the long-run expectations about the developments of the stock market index and about house prices are strongly pessimistic. In the case of the stock market, respondents expect only a small percentage of historical growth. We also observe substantial heterogeneity of expectations by socio-economic background.

Suggested Citation

  • Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2019. "Long-run Expectations of Households," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 218, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:218
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2024. "House price expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 379-398.
    3. Chin, Alycia & VanEpps, Eric M. & Scholl, Brian & Nash, Steven, 2025. "How should I know? Lack of confidence biases stock market expectations toward zero," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Carton, F.L. & Xiong, H. & McCarthy, J.B., 2022. "Drivers of financial well-being in socio-economic deprived populations," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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