Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles
Whereas most of the world has experienced decreasing fertility during the past half century, Israel has experienced a puzzling mix of trends. Completed fertility has decreased sharply in some ethnic-religious groups (Mizrahi Jews and non-Bedouin Arabs) and increased moderately in other groups (non-ultra-orthodox Ashkenazi and Israeli-born Jews). In a phenomenon that can only be described as a reverse fertility transition, fertility has increased substantially (from about 3 to 6 children per women) among ultra-orthodox Ashkenazi and Israeli-born Jews. This paper explores how private and social incentives for fertility may have combined to produce the complex pattern of fertility in Israel. Theoretical analysis of the social dynamics of fertility shows that this pattern could have been generated by the joint effects of (a) private preferences for childbearing, (b) preferences for conformity to group fertility norms, and (c) the major child-allowance program introduced by the Israeli government in the 1970s. Econometric analysis of fertility decisions shows that fundamental identification problems make it difficult to infer the actual Israeli fertility process from data on completed fertility. Hence we are able to conjecture meaningfully on what may have happened, but we cannot definitively resolve the Israeli fertility puzzles.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2003. "Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 181-211, 03.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manski, Charles F, 1993.
"Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 531-42, July.
- Manski, C.F., 1991. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: the Reflection Problem," Working papers 9127, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988.
"An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
- V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, . "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 86-15, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Boyer, George R, 1989. "Malthus Was Right after All: Poor Relief and Birth Rates in Southeastern England," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 93-114, February.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
- Charles F. Manski, 2000.
"Economic Analysis of Social Interactions,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
- Eli Berman, 1998.
"Sect, Subsidy, and Sacrifice: An Economist's View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews,"
NBER Working Papers
6715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eli Berman, 2000. "Sect, Subsidy, And Sacrifice: An Economist'S View Of Ultra-Orthodox Jews," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(3), pages 905-953, August.
- James R. Walker, 1994.
"The Effect of Public Policies on Recent Swedish Fertility Behavior,"
Labor and Demography
- Walker, James R, 1995. "The Effect of Public Policies on Recent Swedish Fertility Behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 223-51, August.
- Walker, J.R., 1994. "The Effect of Public Policies on recent Swedish Fertility Behavior," Working papers 9422, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William A & Durlauf, Steven N, 2001.
"Discrete Choice with Social Interactions,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 235-60, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.