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Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans

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  • Paul Novosad
  • Charlie Rafkin
  • Sam Asher

Abstract

Measurements of mortality change among less educated Americans can be biased because the least educated groups (e.g., dropouts) become smaller and more negatively selected over time. We show that mortality changes at constant education percentiles can be bounded with minimal assumptions. Middle-age mortality increases among non-Hispanic Whites from 1992 to 2018 are driven almost entirely by the bottom 10 percent of the education distribution. Drivers of mortality change differ substantially across groups. Deaths of despair explain most of the mortality change among young non-Hispanic Whites, but less among older Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. Our bounds are applicable in many other contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Novosad & Charlie Rafkin & Sam Asher, 2022. "Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1-34, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:1-34
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190297
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Wroński, 2024. "Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Poland in the Long Run: Education as a Positional Good," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(3), pages 317-339, May.
    2. Raj Chetty & Will Dobbie & Benjamin Goldman & Sonya R. Porter & Crystal S. Yang, 2024. "Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility," Working Papers 24-38, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Amy Finkelstein & Geoffrey Kocks & Maria Polyakova & Victoria Udalova, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Damages from A Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2023. "Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap Between Adult Americans with and without a BA," NBER Working Papers 31236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hui Zheng & Yoonyoung Choi & Taehyun Ethan Kim, 2025. "Uncovering the underlying causes for the narrowing, stalling, and widening Black–White mortality gap from 2000 to 2022 in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(18), pages 535-558.
    6. Bavafa, Hessam & Mukherjee, Anita & Welch, Tyler Q., 2023. "Inequality in the golden years: Wealth gradients in disability-free and work-free longevity in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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