The prediction of bank acquisition targets with discriminant and logit analyses: Methodological issues and empirical evidence
This paper uses discriminant and logit analyses to develop prediction models to identify bank acquisition targets. We consider several methodological issues, such as whether the choice of the estimation technique, the selection of variables, the use of raw versus industry relative data, the train-and-test sampling scheme, and the criteria for model evaluation affect the predictive accuracy of the developed models. Both estimation methods generate remarkably similar model performance rankings, while differences are revealed in the relative importance of variables when using raw versus industry relative data. We find that in most cases there is a fair amount of misclassification, consistent with previous studies in non-financial sectors, which is hard to avoid given the nature of the problem.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronan G. Powell, 2001. "Takeover Prediction and Portfolio Performance: A Note," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 993-1011.
- Hannan, Timothy H & Rhoades, Stephen A, 1987. "Acquisition Targets and Motives: The Case of the Banking Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 67-74, February.
- Pedro N. Rodriguez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2006. "Understanding and predicting sovereign debt rescheduling: a comparison of the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 459-479.
- Ronan G. Powell, 1997. "Modelling Takeover Likelihood," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 1009-1030.
- Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-88, November.
- Cudd, Mike & Duggal, Rakesh, 2000. "Industry Distributional Characteristics of Financial Ratios: An Acquisition Theory Application," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 105-20, February.
- Pasiouras, Fotios & Tanna, Sailesh & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2007. "The identification of acquisition targets in the EU banking industry: An application of multicriteria approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 262-281.
- Christoph Walkner & Jean-Pierre Raes, 2005. "Integration and consolidation in EU banking - an unfinished business," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 226, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Bauer, Wolfgang & Ryser, Marc, 2004. "Risk management strategies for banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 331-352, February.
- Barnes, Paul, 2000. "The identification of U.K. takeover targets using published historical cost accounting data Some empirical evidence comparing logit with linear discriminant analysis and raw financial ratios with indu," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-162.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995.
"Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions,"
1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2006.
"Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks,"
Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium
06/414, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Gleb Lanine & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2007. "Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 15(2), pages 285-308, 04.
- Ignacio Hernando & María J. Nieto & Larry Wall, 2008.
"Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union,"
0823, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Hernando, Ignacio & Nieto, Mara J. & Wall, Larry D., 2009. "Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1022-1032, June.
- Ignacio Hernando & María J. Nieto & Larry D. Wall, 2008. "Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Slowinski, R. & Zopounidis, C. & Dimitras, A. I., 1997. "Prediction of company acquisition in Greece by means of the rough set approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 1-15, July.
- Koehler, Matthias, 2007. "Merger Control as Barrier to EU Banking Market Integration," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-082, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Wheelock, David C. & Wilson, Paul W., 2004.
"Consolidation in US banking: Which banks engage in mergers?,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 7-39.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2002. "Consolidation in US banking: which banks engage in mergers?," Working Papers 2001-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Barnes, Paul, 1999. "Predicting UK Takeover Targets: Some Methodological Issues and an Empirical Study," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 283-301, May.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis, 2007. "Financial characteristics of banks involved in acquisitions: evidence from Asia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 329-341.
- Stevens, Donald L., 1973. "Financial Characteristics of Merged Firms: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 149-158, March.
- Espahbodi, Hassan & Espahbodi, Pouran, 2003. "Binary choice models and corporate takeover," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 549-574, April.
- Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2008. "Regulations, Supervision Approaches and Acquisition Likelihood in the Asian Banking Industry," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 15(2), pages 135-154, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:39-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.