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(Un)Informed College and Major Choice: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

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  • Justine S. Hastings
  • Christopher A. Neilson
  • Anely Ramirez
  • Seth D. Zimmerman

Abstract

We use large-scale surveys of Chilean college applicants and college students to explore the way students form beliefs about earnings and cost outcomes at different institutions and majors and how these beliefs relate to degree choice and persistence. Linking our survey records to administrative education and earnings data, we compare earnings and cost expectations to observed values for past students and follow survey participants forward to see how beliefs relate to matriculation and dropout outcomes. We find that students have correctly centered but noisy cost expectations, and appear to systematically overestimate earnings outcomes for past graduates. Students who overestimate costs are less likely to matriculate in any degree program and in their stated first-choice program, and are more likely to drop out. Students who overestimate earnings matriculate at similar rates to other students, but choose degree programs where past students have been less likely to graduate, have earned less early in their careers, and have been more likely to default on student loans. Consistent with an informal model of enrollment choice, students with a stated preference for labor market-related degree characteristics are less likely to overestimate earnings outcomes and choose degrees where past students have gone on to earn more, while the opposite is true for students with a stated preference for enjoyment of the curriculum.

Suggested Citation

  • Justine S. Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Anely Ramirez & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2015. "(Un)Informed College and Major Choice: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 21330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21330
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    Cited by:

    1. Veronica Minaya & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2018. "Labor Market Outcomes and Postsecondary Accountability: Are Imperfect Metrics Better than None?," NBER Chapters,in: Productivity in Higher Education National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
    3. Johannes S. Kunz & Kevin E. Staub, 2016. "Subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," ECON - Working Papers 218, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Justine Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2015. "The Effects of Earnings Disclosure on College Enrollment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 21300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Huntington-Klein, Nick, 2016. "“(Un)informed College and Major Choice”: Verification in an alternate setting," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 159-163.
    6. Veronica Minaya & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2016. "Labor Market Outcomes and Postsecondary Accountability: Are Imperfect Metrics Better than None?," NBER Working Papers 22880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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