IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wes/weswpa/2022-001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Seasonality and Consumer Confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Balazs Zelity

    (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)

Abstract

This research empirically investigates whether consumer confidence is affected by seasonal weather fluctuations. Cross-country panel regressions are run with two different data sets. It is found that both solar elevation and sunlight duration positively affect consumer confidence. The presence of country and year-by-quarter fixed effects as well as controls for the business cycle help rule out alternative explanations. A one standard deviation increase in solar elevation or sunlight duration is associated with a 0.02-0.04 SD increase in consumer confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Balazs Zelity, 2022. "Seasonality and Consumer Confidence," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2022-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2022-001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.wesleyan.edu/pdf/bzelity/2022001_zelity.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & DiGiovanni, Yuting Meng, 2020. "Mood beta and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 272-295.
    2. Yoichi Sekizawa & Yoko Konishi, 2021. "Are consumer confidence and asset value expectations positively associated with length of daylight?: An exploration of psychological mediators between length of daylight and seasonal asset price trans," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Kliger, Doron & Raviv, Yaron & Rosett, Joshua & Bayer, Thomas & Page, John, 2015. "Seasonal affective disorder and seasoned art auction prices: New evidence from old masters," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 74-84.
    4. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    5. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2012. "Real estate prices: An international study of seasonality's sentiment effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-146.
    6. Kelly, Patrick J. & Meschke, Felix, 2010. "Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1308-1326, June.
    7. Steven D. Dolvin & Mark K. Pyles, 2007. "Seasonal affective disorder and the pricing of IPOs," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 214-228, May.
    8. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2015. "Seasonal Variation in Treasury Returns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 45-115, June.
    9. Steven D. Dolvin & Stephanie A. Fernhaber, 2014. "Seasonal Affective Disorder and IPO underpricing: implications for young firms," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-68, January.
    10. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2018. "Testing for Seasonal Affective Disorder on Selected CEE and SEE Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guy Kaplanski & Haim Levy, 2017. "Seasonality in Perceived Risk: A Sentiment Effect," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Yoichi Sekizawa & Yoko Konishi, 2021. "Are consumer confidence and asset value expectations positively associated with length of daylight?: An exploration of psychological mediators between length of daylight and seasonal asset price trans," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Gori, Leonella & Teti, Emanuele & Loi, Andrea & Dallocchio, Maurizio, 2020. "Seasonal darkness and IPO," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 494-508.
    4. Steven D. Dolvin & Stephanie A. Fernhaber, 2014. "Seasonal Affective Disorder and IPO underpricing: implications for young firms," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-68, January.
    5. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.
    6. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2018. "Testing for Seasonal Affective Disorder on Selected CEE and SEE Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
    8. Tihana Škrinjarić & Branka Marasović & Boško Šego, 2021. "Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
    10. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    11. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    12. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    13. Abudy, Menachem (Meni) & Mugerman, Yevgeny & Shust, Efrat, 2022. "The Winner Takes It All: Investor Sentiment and the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Vijay Singal & Jitendra Tayal, 2020. "Risky short positions and investor sentiment: Evidence from the weekend effect in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 479-500, March.
    15. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    16. Vicki L. Bogan & Angela R. Fertig, 2013. "Portfolio Choice and Mental Health," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 955-992.
    17. Edmans, Alex & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Garel, Alexandre & Indriawan, Ivan, 2022. "Music sentiment and stock returns around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 234-254.
    18. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-138.
    19. Gelman, Sergey & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "Time-Induced Stress Effect on Financial Decision Making in Real Markets: The Case of Traffic Congestion," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145915, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer confidence; seasonality; seasonal affective disorder; behavioural bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2022-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edwesus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manolis Kaparakis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edwesus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.