Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data
The validity of the rational expectations hypothesis is explored using 12 years direct individual expectations data derived from the BHPS. The usage of micro data drives off the possibility of spurious rejections caused by the existence of micro-heterogeneity. And the 12 years BHPS micro panel data can release the average-out problem in a comparatively short term micro panel data. In short, I test if the individual expectations are unbiased and efficient in a comparatively long term in this paper. As a result, expectations errors are found to be biased and inefficient. Furthermore, the hypothesis that expectations errors are random is investigated by exploring the existence of systematic components in expectations errors. There exists the micro-heterogeneity among different types of respondents. Also, the factors that significantly affect individual’s expectations are identified.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996.
"Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-1262, December.
- Orazio Attanasio & Steven J. Davis, 1994. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
- Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
- Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996.
"A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth,"
Other publications TiSEM
a6683363-b5a6-4fe7-b062-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000.
"To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data,"
200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
- Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using Survey Data," Working Papers 200007, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992.
"Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
- Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994.
"Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
- Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Saving and income smoothing: Evidence from panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1251-1279, July.
- Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1995. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
- Nerlove, Marc & Schuermann, Til, 1997. "Businessmen's Expectations Are Neither Rational nor Adaptive," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-01, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Robert B. Barsky & F. Thomas Juster & Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-579.
- Donkers, A.C.D. & Melenberg, B. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1999.
"Estimating Risk Attitudes Using Lotteries; A Large Sample Approach,"
1999-12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Donkers, Bas & Melenberg, Bertrand & Van Soest, Arthur, 2001. "Estimating Risk Attitudes Using Lotteries: A Large Sample Approach," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 165-195, March.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-173, May.
- Ivaldi, Marc, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 225-241, July-Sept.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.