Physician Income Prediction Errors: Sources and Implications for Behavior
Although income expectations play a central role in many economic decisions, little is known about the sources of income prediction errors and how agents respond to income shocks. This paper uses a unique panel data set to examine the accuracy of physicians' income expectations, the sources of income prediction errors, and the effect of income prediction errors on physician behavior. The data set contains direct survey measures of income expectations for medical students who graduated between 1970 and 1998, their corresponding income realizations, and a rich summary of the shocks hitting their medical practices. We find that income prediction errors were positive on average over the sample period, but varied significantly over time and cross-sectionally. We trace these results to persistent specialty-specific shocks, such as the growth of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and other changes across health care markets. Physicians who experienced negative income shocks were more likely to respond by increasing their hours worked, allocating fewer of their work hours to teaching/research and more to patient care, and were more likely to switch specialties.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994.
"Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling,"
NBER Working Papers
4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations Of The Returns To Schooling," Econometrics 9411002, EconWPA.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Eliciting student expectations of the returns to schooling," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1049-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Manski, C.F., 1991.
"Adolescent Econometricians : How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling,"
9110, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-73, May.
- Frank A. Sloan, 1970. "Lifetime Earnings and Physicians' Choice of Specialty," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 24(1), pages 47-56, October.
- Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999.
"A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Other publications TiSEM a6683363-b5a6-4fe7-b062-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Polsky, Daniel & Kletke, Phillip R. & Wozniak, Gregory D. & Escarce, Jose J., 2000. "HMO penetration and the geographic mobility of practicing physicians," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 793-809, September.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, .
"Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations,"
Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers
1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1998. "Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 768-805, August.
- Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler & Mark McClellan & Joseph P. Newhouse, 2000. "How Does Managed Care Do It?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(3), pages 526-548, Autumn.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
- Sean Nicholson, 2003. "Barriers to Entering Medical Specialties," NBER Working Papers 9649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McClellan, Mark & Cutler, David & Newhous, Joseph P., 2000. "How Does Managed Care Do It?," Scholarly Articles 2643884, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Gary A. Zarkin, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-446.
- Julian R. Betts, 1996. "What Do Students Know about Wages? Evidence from a Survey of Undergraduates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 27-56.
- Sean Nicholson & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Physician Income Expectations and Specialty Choice," NBER Working Papers 8536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.