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Excess sensitivity of consumption using micro data in the UK

  • Yu, Ge
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The impact of the subjective variables specific to individual financial well being on economic outcomes is considered whether they are able to predict the growth of household consumption. Subjective variables include more information that is difficult to be identified or valued in previous empirical work compared to real income. The empirical analysis finds that the financial well being variables do predict the household consumption of non-durable goods. Higher financial expectations are correlated with less saving. I also find some of the rejection of the PIH is due to asymmetric preferences and the systematic heterogeneity in forecast errors.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/548/1/MPRA_paper_548.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/563/1/MPRA_paper_563.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 548.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:548
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  2. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1984. "Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 725, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  6. Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1996. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-90, January.
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  9. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  10. Campbell, John & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Scholarly Articles 3221494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  15. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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  17. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 631-49, July.
  19. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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