IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosta/v4y2017icp121-129.html

A novel approach to measuring consumer confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Segers, Rene
  • Franses, Philip Hans
  • de Bruijn, Bert

Abstract

A new data collection method is put forward to measure daily consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates. The latter is not possible for currently available monthly data collected by statistical agencies on the basis of repeated cross-sections. In an application to measuring Dutch consumer confidence, results show that the incremental information content in the novel indicator helps to better forecast consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Segers, Rene & Franses, Philip Hans & de Bruijn, Bert, 2017. "A novel approach to measuring consumer confidence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 121-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:4:y:2017:i:c:p:121-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2016.11.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452306216300338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Contains open access articles
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosta.2016.11.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    2. Moffitt, Robert, 1993. "Identification and estimation of dynamic models with a time series of repeated cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 99-123, September.
    3. Erdem, Tulin & Sun, Baohong, 2001. "Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 142-152, April.
    4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    5. Keane, Michael P, 1997. "Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 310-327, July.
    6. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    7. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    8. Rene Segers & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Panel design effects on response rates and response quality," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(1), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, November.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Franses,Philip Hans & Paap,Richard, 2010. "Quantitative Models in Marketing Research," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143653, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Hung-Che & Ai, Chi-Han & Cheng, Ching-Chan, 2019. "Experiential quality, experiential psychological states and experiential outcomes in an unmanned convenience store," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 409-420.
    2. Chi-Wei Su & Xian-Li Meng & Ran Tao & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Chinese consumer confidence: A catalyst for the outbound tourism expenditure?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 696-717, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Segers, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Measuring weekly consumer confidence," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Roberto González & Hector Sala, 2015. "The Frisch Elasticity in the Mercosur Countries: A Pseudo-Panel Approach," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(1), pages 107-131, January.
    3. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Rene Segers & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Panel design effects on response rates and response quality," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(1), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    7. Brodeur, Abel & Yousaf, Hasin, 2019. "The Economics of Mass Shootings," IZA Discussion Papers 12728, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
    9. David A. Comerford, 2024. "Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 933-953, June.
    10. Vincent Leyaro & Oliver Morrissey, 2010. "Protection and the Determinants of Household Income in Tanzania 1991 – 2007," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    11. Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2006. "The dynamics of home computer ownership in Greece," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 73-86, March.
    12. Tiziana Laureti, 2014. "Life satisfaction and environmental conditions in Italy: a pseudo-panel approach," Discussion Papers 2014/192, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Jhon James Mora & Juan Muro, 2007. "Diploma earning differences by gender in Colombia," Alcamentos 0802, Universidad de Alcalá, Departamento de Economía., revised 2008.
    14. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2023. "Household deposits and consumer sentiment expectations: Evidence from Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Guell, Maia & Hu, Luojia, 2006. "Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 307-341, July.
    16. Francisca Antman & David McKenzie, 2007. "Poverty traps and nonlinear income dynamics with measurement error and individual heterogeneity," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 1057-1083.
    17. Toshiaki Iizuka, 2012. "Physician Agency and Adoption of Generic Pharmaceuticals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2826-2858, October.
    18. Giulia BETTIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2012. "Intertemporal remittance behaviour by immigrants in Germany," Working Papers 385, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    19. Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687, May.
    20. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:4:y:2017:i:c:p:121-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/econometrics-and-statistics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.