IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Space-time dynamics of fertility and commuting

Author

Listed:
  • Kotyrlo, Elena

    () (People's Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia; Umeе University, Sweden;)

Abstract

The study contributes in analytical description of spatial diffusion of fertility, in particular, influenced by labour movements of people between places of residence and work. It is assumed that the labour market has externality on the marriage market due to commuting, which, in turn, affects fertility. A model of spatial diffusion of fertility is based on assumption of global and local spillover effects. The global spillover effect, as shifts in fertility norms, is motivated by increasing variance of social interactions of an individual, when places of work and residence are different. One local spillover effect is in response to flows of earnings across space. Another mechanism is related to expected changes in probabilities to find a partner affected by differences in day and night population. The analytical model, in which the effects on fertility of the cited spillovers are decomposed, is constructed in the paper on the base of a model of the demand for children, spatial stock-flow model of a market, and a matching model with a sex imbalance or spatial mismatch as the probability of matching. Three sex imbalances, namely of night-, day-time population and an adjusted to sex imbalance of commuters to residents are empirically tested. Empirical evidence on municipal Swedish data for the period 1994–2008 does not provide any strong evidence of spatial diffusion of fertility. However, there are externalities of labour mobility on fertility due to changes of gender structure of population.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotyrlo, Elena, 2016. "Space-time dynamics of fertility and commuting," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 41, pages 78-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2016_41_078-095.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 1995. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 25-45, March.
    2. Pissarides, C A, 1979. "Job Matchings with State Employment Agencies and Random Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 818-833, December.
    3. Diamond, Peter & Fudenberg, Drew, 1989. "Rational Expectations Business Cycles in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 606-619, June.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    6. Maristella Botticini & Aloysius Siow, 2006. "Are There Increasing Returns in Marriage Markets?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-050, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. repec:eee:jotrge:v:16:y:2008:i:1:p:14-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Johan Lundberg, 2006. "Spatial interaction model of spillovers from locally provided public services," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 631-644.
    9. Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 328-352, July.
    10. Diamond, Peter A, 1981. "Mobility Costs, Frictional Unemployment, and Efficiency," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 798-812, August.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin‐Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967, December.
    13. Rincke, Johannes, 2010. "A commuting-based refinement of the contiguity matrix for spatial models, and an application to local police expenditures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 324-330, September.
    14. Brigitte Waldorf & Rachel Franklin, 2002. "Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 549-578, August.
    15. Burdett, Kenneth & Coles, Melvyn G, 1999. "Long-Term Partnership Formation: Marriage and Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 307-334, June.
    16. Janice Compton & Robert A. Pollak, 2007. "Why Are Power Couples Increasingly Concentrated in Large Metropolitan Areas?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 475-512.
    17. Burdett, K. & Coles, M. G., 1998. "Separation cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1069-1090, May.
    18. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2010. "Spatial error correction and cointegration in nonstationary panel data: regional house prices in Israel," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-206, June.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    20. Lena Edlund, 2005. "Sex and the City," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 25-44, March.
    21. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    22. Melvyn Coles & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "A Test Between Stock-Flow Matching And The Random Matching Function Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1113-1141, November.
    23. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
    24. Lung-Fei Lee, 2004. "Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1899-1925, November.
    25. Scott Drewianka, 2003. "Estimating Social Effects in Matching Markets: Externalities in Spousal Search," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 409-423, May.
    26. Ronald Camstra, 1996. "Commuting and Gender in a Lifestyle Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 283-300, March.
    27. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
    28. Janice F. Madden & JMichelle J. White, 1980. "Spatial Implications of Increases in the Female Labor Force: A Theoretical and Empirical Synthesis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(4), pages 432-446.
    29. Marcia Castro, 2007. "Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 477-509, December.
    30. Wilkinson, Maurice, 1973. "An Econometric Analysis of Fertility in Sweden, 1870-1965," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 633-642, July.
    31. Piras, Gianfranco, 2010. "sphet: Spatial Models with Heteroskedastic Innovations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 35(i01).
    32. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    33. Coles, Melvyn G & Smith, Eric, 1998. "Marketplaces and Matching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 239-254, February.
    34. Nicoletta Balbo & Nicola Barban, 2012. "Does fertility behavior spread among friends?," Working Papers 050, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    37. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Empirical Studies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 175-188, April.
    38. Eugene Choo & Aloysius Siow, 2006. "Estimating a marriage matching model with spillover effects," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(3), pages 463-490, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commuting; demand for children; effect of flows of earnings; effect of matching; local spillover effect; spatial diffusion of fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anatoly Peresetsky). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.