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Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Casey Helgeson

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Richard Bradley

    (London School of Economics)

  • Brian Hill

    (CNRS, HEC Paris)

Abstract

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2247-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach, 2011. "Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 659-673, October.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.
    3. Hill , Brian & Bradley , Richard & Helgeson, Casey, 2016. "Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision," HEC Research Papers Series 1131, HEC Paris.
    4. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, march.
    5. David V. Budescu & Han-Hui Por & Stephen B. Broomell & Michael Smithson, 2014. "The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 508-512, June.
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    7. David Budescu & Han-Hui Por & Stephen Broomell, 2012. "Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 181-200, July.
    8. Rob Swart & Lenny Bernstein & Minh Ha-Duong & Arthur Petersen, 2009. "Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 1-29, January.
    9. Richard Moss, 2011. "Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 641-658, October.
    10. Gary Yohe & Michael Oppenheimer, 2011. "Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change—an introductory essay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 629-639, October.
    11. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
    12. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2015. "An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 701-712, April.
    13. Hill, Brian, 2013. "Confidence and decision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 675-692.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
    2. A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Margherita Harris, 2025. "The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-13, May.
    4. Richard Bradley & Casey Helgeson & Brian Hill, 2025. "Navigating confidence–precision trade-offs in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-6, May.
    5. Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley, 2021. "Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-25, September.

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