The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to
for a different version of it.References listed on IDEAS
- Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Post-Print hal-01966704, HAL.
- Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
- Hill, Brian, 2013. "Confidence and decision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 675-692.
- Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," Working Papers hal-01933825, HAL.
- Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 275-292, October.
- Carolyn W. Snyder, 2019. "Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 121-138, September.
- Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
- Helgeson, Casey & Bradley, Richard & Hill, Brian, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," HEC Research Papers Series 1298, HEC Paris.
- Wagner, Gernot & Weitzman, Martin L., 2018. "Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 144-146.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Richard Bradley & Casey Helgeson & Brian Hill, 2025. "Navigating confidence–precision trade-offs in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-6, May.
- A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
- Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley, 2021. "Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-25, September.
- Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
- Dequech, David, 2000. "Confidence and action: a comment on Barbalet," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 503-515, November.
- Lea Berrang‐Ford & Friederike Döbbe & Ruth Garside & Neal Haddaway & William F. Lamb & Jan C. Minx & Wolfgang Viechtbauer & Vivian Welch & Howard White, 2020. "Editorial: Evidence synthesis for accelerated learning on climate solutions," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), December.
- Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-02942874, HAL.
- Hill, Brian, 2016.
"Incomplete preferences and confidence,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 83-103.
- Hill , Brian, 2014. "Incomplete Preferences and Confidence," HEC Research Papers Series 1051, HEC Paris.
- Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
- Hill, Brian, 2023. "Beyond uncertainty aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 196-222.
- Marco A. Crocco, 2008.
"Technical Change And Formation Of Expectations,"
Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 276-304, May.
- Marco Crocco, 2000. "Technical Change and formation of expectations," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td145, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020.
"Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research,"
Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
- Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Post-Print hal-02914088, HAL.
- Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Post-Print hal-03031728, HAL.
- Marco Crocco, 2002.
"The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle, and Davidson,"
Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 12(2), pages 11-28, July-Dece.
- Marco Crocco, 2000. "The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle and Davidson," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td147, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- Bachner, G. & Mayer, J. & Steininger, K.W. & Anger-Kraavi, A. & Smith, A. & Barker, T.S., 2020. "Uncertainties in macroeconomic assessments of low-carbon transition pathways - The case of the European iron and steel industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
- J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspective on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
- Brian Hill, 2012.
"Unanimity and the aggregation of multiple prior opinions,"
Working Papers
hal-00712015, HAL.
- Hill, Brian, 2012. "Unanimity and the aggregation of multiple prior opinions," HEC Research Papers Series 959, HEC Paris.
- Franck Bessis & Guillemette de Larquier & John Latsis, 2009.
"Are conventions solutions? Contrasting visions of the relationship between convention and uncertainty,"
Working Papers
hal-04140883, HAL.
- Franck Bessis & Guillemette de Larquier & John Latsis, 2009. "Are conventions solutions ? Contrasting visions of the relationship between convention and uncertainty," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2007. "The weight of argument and non-additive measures: a note," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 003, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
- Laura C. Bowling & Keith A. Cherkauer & Charlotte I. Lee & Janna L. Beckerman & Sylvie Brouder & Jonathan R. Buzan & Otto C. Doering & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Paul D. Ebner & Jane R. Frankenberger & Benjam, 2020. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2005-2027, December.
- Ekaterina Svetlova & Matthias Fiedler, 2011. "Understanding Crisis: On the Meaning of Uncertainty and Probability," Chapters, in: Óscar Dejuán & Eladio Febrero & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo (ed.), The First Great Recession of the 21st Century, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03931-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.