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The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

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  • Margherita Harris

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

Abstract

In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Harris, 2025. "The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03931-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6
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