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The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

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  • Margherita Harris

    (Leibniz University Hannover)

Abstract

In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

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  • Margherita Harris, 2025. "The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03931-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Post-Print hal-01966704, HAL.
    2. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    3. Hill, Brian, 2013. "Confidence and decision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 675-692.
    4. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," Working Papers hal-01933825, HAL.
    5. Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 275-292, October.
    6. Carolyn W. Snyder, 2019. "Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 121-138, September.
    7. Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
    8. Helgeson, Casey & Bradley, Richard & Hill, Brian, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," HEC Research Papers Series 1298, HEC Paris.
    9. Wagner, Gernot & Weitzman, Martin L., 2018. "Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 144-146.
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