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Navigating confidence–precision trade-offs in assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Bradley

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Casey Helgeson

    (Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Penn State University
    Penn State University)

  • Brian Hill

    (GREGHEC, CNRS
    Department of Economics and Decision Sciences, HEC Paris)

Abstract

In this reply, we address a comment on our paper “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment” (Helgeson et al. Clim Change 149(3):517–525, 2018). Our original paper proposes an incremental systematization of confidence and likelihood language used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our goals were to improve consistency across findings and support use of confidence judgments in decision making. The comment critiques our proposal and recommends against its adoption. We argue that this recommendation is based on two misunderstandings. The first concerns trading off confidence against the precision of a finding (our proposal endorses and systematizes the practice). We defend this practice and attribute opposition to an overzealous Bayesianism inapt for the IPCC context. The second misunderstanding concerns our purported commitment to a specific procedure for producing confidence judgements. We clarify that our proposal makes no such commitment. We also note, contrary to the comment’s claim, that a version of the procedure in question has been used in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bradley & Casey Helgeson & Brian Hill, 2025. "Navigating confidence–precision trade-offs in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-6, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03935-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03935-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian Hill, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Post-Print hal-03503986, HAL.
    2. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," Working Papers hal-01933825, HAL.
    3. Helgeson, Casey & Bradley, Richard & Hill, Brian, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," HEC Research Papers Series 1298, HEC Paris.
    4. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Post-Print hal-01966704, HAL.
    5. Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Jessica L. O’Reilly & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Tamsin L. Edwards & Baylor Fox-Kemper & Gregory G. Garner & Nicholas R. Golledge & Tim H. J. Hermans & Helene T. Hewi, 2023. "Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(7), pages 648-660, July.
    6. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    7. Hill, Brian, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
    9. Hill, Brian, 2013. "Confidence and decision," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 675-692.
    10. Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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