The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle and Davidson
The aim of the paper is to discuss and define a concept of Keynesian uncertainty capable of both to comprehend the concept of probable knowledge and admit the existence of degrees of uncertainty. Although the economic literature have been discussed this concept based on the discussion of the weight of argument that comes from Keynes’s theory of probability, we claim that this discussion must include the analysis of the relevance of the evidence. Moreover, we claim that this concept of uncertainty is not incompatible with Shackle’s concept of crucial decision and the understanding of the social reality as a nonergodic process.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in Nova Economia, 2002.|
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|Order Information:|| Postal: Cedeplar-FACE-UFMG Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627 Belo Horizonte, MG 31270-901 Brazil|
References listed on IDEAS
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- Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-927, December.
- Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 275-292, October.
- Lawson, Tony, 1987. "The Relative/Absolute Nature of Knowledge and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 951-970, December.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1982.
"Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change,"
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
- Paul Davidson, 1983. "Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision-Making Processes," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(2), pages 182-198, January.
- Paul Davidson, 1987. "Sensible Expectations and the Long-Run Non-Neutrality of Money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 10(1), pages 146-153, October.
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