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The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle and Davidson

  • Marco Crocco


The aim of the paper is to discuss and define a concept of Keynesian uncertainty capable of both to comprehend the concept of probable knowledge and admit the existence of degrees of uncertainty. Although the economic literature have been discussed this concept based on the discussion of the weight of argument that comes from Keynes’s theory of probability, we claim that this discussion must include the analysis of the relevance of the evidence. Moreover, we claim that this concept of uncertainty is not incompatible with Shackle’s concept of crucial decision and the understanding of the social reality as a nonergodic process.

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Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td147.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Nova Economia, 2002.
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td147
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  1. Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-27, December.
  2. Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 275-292, October.
  3. Lawson, Tony, 1987. "The Relative/Absolute Nature of Knowledge and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 951-70, December.
  4. Paul Davidson, 1983. "Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision-Making Processes," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(2), pages 182-198, January.
  5. Dosi, Giovanni, 1982. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
  6. Paul Davidson, 1987. "Sensible Expectations and the Long-Run Non-Neutrality of Money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 10(1), pages 146-153, October.
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